Board 8 > Super Smash Bros. Mafia - Topic 10: PK Fire

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Kirby321
05/30/23 12:59:49 PM
#1:


Player List
1. changmas (Zelda)
2. SirChris (Hero)
3. Cody11533 (Rosalina & Luma)
4. Corrik7 (Samus)
5. Crescent-Moon (Ike)
6. MZero (Joker)
7. Obellisk (Sora)
8. EDumey (Daisy)
9. Sheep007 (Lucario)
10. UltimaterializerX (Peach)

KO'd
LD1 - UnderUrMattress (Donkey Kong) - BLUE TEAM Tracker
KN1 - PeaceFrog (Kirby) - BLUE TEAM 1-Shot Gunsmith
LD2 - RuneterranSnap (Little Mac) - RED TEAM Godfather (Used: 1x Role Cop)
KN2 - ctesjbuvf (Jigglypuff) - BLUE TEAM Cop
KN2 - htaeD (Min Min) - BLUE TEAM Slow Doctor
LD3 - Lea (Lucina) - BLUE TEAM Bodyguard
KN3 - wallmasterz (Mario) - BLUE TEAM 1-Shot Empowerer

With 10 players, it takes 6 votes to lynch. Day ends on Wednesday at 7 PM EDT, approximately 30 hours from now.

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Cody11533
05/30/23 9:35:37 PM
#2:


SirChris posted...
Why do you feel best about chang over the other two joyrock voters?
Coming into today I felt like I agreed with him more than the other two. I had him and Crescent close mentally, but gave him a slight edge.

Today I think he's posted against Ulti very strongly which I agree with. It has felt genuine. However SBell and especially Crescent have also had similar content, which elevates all three of them for me.

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Cody11533
05/30/23 9:39:41 PM
#3:


Nailed it Cody, wrong topic.

undefined posted...
C) Ulti and Cody are both telling the truth -> Lynch somebody else entirely

Cody is Town Backup, Ulti is confused about his role and can't explain his thoughts correctly. Scum has a Special Flag item / Resurrect that ulti actually saw last night, but it isn't linked to cody at all. and we just lynch whoever is scummiest irrespective of this whole situation
Ulti has completely ignored or shot down this scenario, in his eyes I cannot be Town.

At this point I'm willing to completely rule it out and say Ulti has to be Scum.


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#4
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Cody11533
05/30/23 9:53:01 PM
#5:


After looking over Day 4 again I do believe scum still believes they can get me mislynched today in what would likely end the game. Enough people are ignoring or justifying Ulti's contradictions, probably because at this point they still believe they can sway enough people off of Ulti and onto me. And at this point I don't see how him or myself aren't the lynch today.

Chang/Crescent/SBell/MZero have all been extremely consistent in thinking Ulti is lying. It's not impossible that one of them could be scum and hiding here in a worst case scenario long plan, but these 4 are my most confident Town reads right now.

Dumey was strong on me early, but backed off. However he left enough plausible deniability in his posts to later swing back off his Ulti read and onto me IMO.

Chris has been back and forth, which I could see as genuine reading of the game trying to solve it. He's swung a bit too much in allowing room for himself to believe Ulti for me to put him out of the middle at this point though. I really don't want the Goldeen vendor to be scum.

Corrik and Sheep straight up believe Ulti is Town or have been justifying his contradictory claims at this point. I would look here next.

And I'm 100% convinced Ulti is Scum now. In addition to his contradictory beetle madness that has been pointed out already, he claims I'm 100% Scum, but I am Town Backup so he is lying.

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Cody11533
05/30/23 9:53:49 PM
#6:


Really Ulti, I give you all day to consider it and now you do, right before my wall of thoughts.

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#7
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Cody11533
05/30/23 9:56:44 PM
#8:


If you're Town, pretend I'm Town Backup and everything I've said is true, and try and explain that along with your information from last night.

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Corrik7
05/30/23 10:12:16 PM
#9:


Cody is all over the place with Ulti. I can't tell if it's more he is 100% confident ulti is scum or that he just wants to get ulti and whoever believes him off of his lynch.

Either way, I don't think either is the best direction today.

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Obellisk
05/30/23 10:13:04 PM
#10:


I bet I know who corrik thinks we should lynch.

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Corrik7
05/30/23 10:14:10 PM
#11:


Obellisk posted...
I bet I know who corrik thinks we should lynch.


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SirChris
05/30/23 10:14:56 PM
#12:


I am going to bed someone towncase chang

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#13
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Cody11533
05/30/23 10:31:20 PM
#14:


UltimaterializerX posted...
If you're telling the truth, then the lynch is Dumey or Sheep.
Without a better argument then trust me, why would I lynch anyone besides you? If we're both Town, I'd expect a more in depth look at what you got last night so we can work together and figure out who is Scum. You have all the info last night, I didn't do anything.

Also if you were Town and had me dead to rights with a beetle scan, why waver?

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EDumey
05/31/23 12:29:55 AM
#15:


I think it's still Ulti. There's one thing in particular that always bothered me about his claimed action N2 with only seeing one single item used. For us to believe Ulti that the reason he didn't see scum Cody's track N2 is that scum has a way to play around his role, it seems like they would not need one way to play around his role, but like 3 or 4 ways to play around it? This is hard meta territory from the very first rules post of the game,

Kirby321 posted...
SUPER SMASH BROS. MAFIA
- Rather than traditional roles, SCUM has a pool of items to use as night actions. Each scum may use one item per night. These items all have limited uses, though some items can be used more than once.

So Ulti sent out two beetles and only saw one item used. We don't know enough about how scum works, but it feels crazy that scum would N2 only use one item, or have 3+ ways around Ulti's beetles that he wasn't able to see any of the other items used. Like even if Cody flipped some Ninja variant who's item uses can't be seen by other roles, there's still a huge question in the air about why or how there were no other items used that Ulti could see.

Last game I got wrapped up with Ctes trying to pin me on one single part of the case on him that didn't make sense because he was telling a story that didn't match up with the actual night actions, and I in the end was able to realize that I didn't have enough information and ignored that point he kept pushing on. I want to be careful with Ulti and not focus on just the "why didn't he see scum's N2 scan that Cody would need to have claimed that info" because scum COULD have some way to play around that. But the rest of Ulti's claim still stinks and doesn't seem like it holds up under scrutiny. That's why I'm trying to emphasize that it's not just one isolated issue, but multiple things that don't seem to line up. Another one is the mentioned "too many guns" argument if scum has this supposed back-up that can target town powers. But I get role madness and all on that one makes it not great to give that too much.

I'll look more detailed into Chang tonight since Chris asked for a towncase. Before looking into him, my memory tells me he looked good for being on Joyrock and seemed to make a lot of sense in the posts I see him in. But I'll analyze a little closer.

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Kirby321
05/31/23 1:03:57 AM
#16:


Every Votal Contains a Whisper of Light
[0] Crescent - (Sheep)
[0] Cody - (Ulti), (Dumey)
[0] Corrik - (Chang)
[0] Sheep - (Corrik)
[0] Ulti - (Dumey), (MZero), (Crescent)

With 10 players, it takes 6 votes to lynch. Day ends on Wednesday at 7 PM EDT, approximately 18 hours from now.

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MZero
05/31/23 1:57:51 AM
#17:


SirChris posted...
A little

Thoughts on everyone else?

Cody/Crescent/chang/Chris town

Three scum in Dumey/Sheep/Corrik/SBell


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MZero
05/31/23 1:58:55 AM
#18:


it's hard for me to town case chang though because I just feel it in my soul that he's town. I'm not sure I've even seen him play scum but he feels authentic to me

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EDumey
05/31/23 2:17:29 AM
#19:


MZero posted...
Cody/Crescent/chang/Chris town

Three scum in Dumey/Sheep/Corrik/SBell

So you believe Ulti and Cody to both be town then? And Ulti's claim is unreliable because of scum fuckery?

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EDumey
05/31/23 2:23:07 AM
#20:


Trying to type in some PARAGRAPHS instead of a big list of notes so Ulti doesn't hate me. :(

Some Changmas D2 posts looking back at the D1 lynch makes him look not as strong for being on Joyrock at the end. If looking at a scum perspective, Chang was voting Joyrock thinking he wasn't really going to be lynched? And then putting forth the idea that Joyrock's slot could be saved for later. Only voting Joyrock again D2 post-Chris pleading.

5.187
changmas posted...
do you think scum felt there was a real chance joyrock could have gotten lynched at the end? from my vantage point it felt pretty decided before we got to the very end, if (scum) red was lurking i think he could have safely voted joyrock without a ton of trouble

5.217
changmas posted...
there is a debate to be had with joyrock if we are feeling good about him being scum though

because that is a player slot you can leave in the game that will not fight back so if we have a 2nd scum player it's prolly better to get rid of them

Chang had a slow start to D2, but then had a lot of reactions and talks about claims. Didn't believe Cody at first and voted him, but then decided Cody could be left alive to test. Wanted Cody to give someone a gun. If Chang is scum and Cody is town, does Chang encourage Cody to give a gun and not roleblock/kill Cody? This seems like a genuine town process to me.
Then Chang ultimately supports Ulti's claim. Claims Ulti's behavior is town as fuck, and things along that line.
The rest of Chang's reads seem very dependent on Lea being scum and guessing a Corrik/Lea scum team together.

6.225
changmas posted...
i think there's likely one scum in the plum / lea duo

i think there's definitely at least one scum between joyrock and crescent who is laying low

regardless of how the lea / plum split goes it's worth looking at corrik who i'd have to go back to check but my memory suggests he has been a big influence in looking at both of them and egging them on to an extent so he may have been the invisible hand guiding that the way he wants

wallz is pushing hardest on ulti scum so that's a good person to look into as well, especially considering his claim was a bit calculated in terms of how much info he gave to get people off of his case on day 1 and i could see him having gotten help with what to say there to do it correctly

not sure what to make of ctes and death. ctes had a very strong day 1 but i haven't been too impressed on day 2 so he's dropping down my town list. death i always think is scum so i need somebody else to tell me what to think there or when we're allowed to lynch him hehe

let cody resolve himself with backup

if someone else gets a fish tonight though (and hopefully it's me :) i am willing to consider you town until further notice. red and ulti i still believe are town and want to not lynch either today. tiny bit concerned about mzero being stubborn on ulti but that is likely NAI

Chris since you asked for the "towncase" of Chang, I find it notable that you responded to this above post basically saying you agree with all of it. And then you gave Chang the fish. So it appears to me that you like Chang, and are looking to see if other people confirm that bias? Not sure but I'm trying to look through it.

D3 Chang is a lot more openly skeptical of Ulti and his claim.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80456976/973753767
Can't tell if Chang is just consistent in being suspicious of Corrik, or OMGUSing because his name is on the list.
Most of Chang's D3 is not much because of assumed Lea scum and taking shots at Corrik's solve on the game.

D4 Today Chang asks me to look into Sheep as he's moved Red/Sheep to near the top of his list. Still taking shots at Ulti's claim.

To answer Chris, I think Chang is probably town because none of this looks like scum equity, and looks more like town being fairly consistent on their reads and trying to adapt after being bit by being so wrong on Lea. He's not STRONGLY town, and I think probably should not be out of anyone's PoE, but I also don't see anything particularly scummy.

To Chang, you seemed to like Red at the end of D2, but started today suspecting Sheep. The notable thing in there for me is that Sheep came into the game voting you.
changmas posted...
Also Ill have to actually do the math on it but Cody having a goldeen might actually be a legitimate reason to tip the scale into lynching someone else if were unsure-ish on him

for example i think Sheep is near guaranteed scum at this point (sorry Lea!!)

Can you describe for me what changed from your town read of Red to Sheep being near guaranteed scum? Bonus points for no OMGUS.

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EDumey
05/31/23 2:27:41 AM
#21:


Oh, MZero was responding to Chris asking him about other players because MZero was saying how scummy Ulti looked. Context is important.

Nevermind that question MZero.

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EDumey
05/31/23 2:29:10 AM
#22:


I also did not do a good job of typing in paragraphs. God I love line breaks. They're so good at separating thoughts into distinct lines.

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SirChris
05/31/23 2:42:38 AM
#23:


I am building worlds and seeing which one makes sense.

I am making assumptions and then exploring the worlds to see what makes the most sense

also fish isnt exactly a town read

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MZero
05/31/23 4:47:14 AM
#24:


what a turn it would be if I suddenly called Ulti town lol

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SirChris
05/31/23 5:19:11 AM
#25:


could you imagine

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SirChris
05/31/23 5:34:16 AM
#26:


Anyway I was just thinking of the three people who voted joyrock eod chang imo has been the worst socially and also their claim is the most suspect to me.

Chang being scum also fits in with wall being nk'd last night.

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SirChris
05/31/23 5:35:31 AM
#27:


also chang and joyrock had like the exact same reaction to me suspecting them which is pretty funny tbh

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SirChris
05/31/23 5:39:37 AM
#28:


me personally I would vote chang today atm, but not sure if I have the support for it and I don't have any fire atm to really whip things up so if others don't see it that's cool I guess.

despite everything I don't think its ulti but I am not going to really stop that if most people think its ulti, because I think to some extent he would know how to play around my expectations as scum after all these years.

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SirChris
05/31/23 5:41:01 AM
#29:


like maybe I just had it right with day 2 nuking ulti and I've let doubt creep into my mind, the nks could for sure point that way but they could also be misconstrued if they knew ctes was cop already for example so his suspicion of ulti might be moot.

I will say ulti's reaction to joyrock claiming townie felt like town ulti to me in hindsight though.

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Corrik7
05/31/23 6:01:54 AM
#30:


SirChris posted...
like maybe I just had it right with day 2 nuking ulti and I've let doubt creep into my mind, the nks could for sure point that way but they could also be misconstrued if they knew ctes was cop already for example so his suspicion of ulti might be moot.

I will say ulti's reaction to joyrock claiming townie felt like town ulti to me in hindsight though.
I 100% doubt scum would pick night kills based on them suspecting a player. I would say they were hunting power or knew who power was based on the night kills.

I personally have never been on a team that ever would direct night kills over suspicion. At least not until the very end. Usually it's kill activity or power. I think red is someone who always targets activity specifically. Which is probably a miniscule town point in favor of sheep since I think he probably shoots me and you early if dictating the kills.

Chang's vote on joyrock is in my opinion a good one. It was when things were being decided and be could have went a different way. I do think sbells voting that day was suspect but there is one point where I question why he wouldn't have done further as scum there also. Still the entire sequence is very bad looking back. He tried to get that lynch somewhere else.

I do think Chang is not town. Same with Sbell. To be fair though, does that end sequence go the way it does if both are scum there. Sbell is trying to derail while his scum teammate comes and votes joyrock to pivotally put him ahead? I don't know.

Then again the day ended weirdly.

I have disliked reds slot the entire game. And I still do.

I think Ulti is pretty clearly town. I think you are pretty clearly not scum. I honestly feel Cody is pretty good. And while I have liked Plums slot less since Edumey replaced in, I was pretty good with Plum being town.

This leaves Sheep, Chang, Sbell, Crescent, Mzero.

Obviously there is 2 or 3 left depending on whether you really are town Chris, so you know the final number we need. I would like to reread mzero. Crescent is a bit troubling just from the aspect that I think if she is town she would have butted heads with me. And ulti tbqh. But, there was some stuff day 1 that has possibly made her more subdued. Idk. And I guess she has been pounding her head on the wall all game over ulti.

It's a weird game where no one has really confirmed themselves as town yet and the poe honestly is everyone. Which sucks. Lea being town fucked shit up badly as far as narrowing things down.

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MZero
05/31/23 6:02:56 AM
#31:


tbh I'd rather lose by mislynching Ulti than lose because we let scum Ulti get away with contradicting himself a million times

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SirChris
05/31/23 6:04:56 AM
#32:


MZero posted...
tbh I'd rather lose by mislynching Ulti than lose because we let scum Ulti get away with contradicting himself a million times

I'd rather not lose lol.

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Corrik7
05/31/23 6:07:23 AM
#33:


MZero posted...
tbh I'd rather lose by mislynching Ulti than lose because we let scum Ulti get away with contradicting himself a million times
Lol. I mean, I get the idea that we would never live it down. Only thing more insufferable than Lopen post game is a gloating ulti. I just don't feel he is scum tbqh. I just don't know why he is lying about his role still. His actions don't line up with what he has been saying, his role as described is clearly broken, and if it were true, he would know that scum had a way around it to balance it yet he still acted like it couldn't be while not following where it would lead.

I still don't think he goes to gamblers fallacy for reasoning if scum though. I know you say it's dumb, but I don't think it is. I don't see it at all.

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SirChris
05/31/23 6:08:15 AM
#34:


Corrik7 posted...
I 100% doubt scum would pick night kills based on them suspecting a player. I would say they were hunting power or knew who power was based on the night kills.

I personally have never been on a team that ever would direct night kills over suspicion. At least not until the very end. Usually it's kill activity or power. I think red is someone who always targets activity specifically. Which is probably a miniscule town point in favor of sheep since I think he probably shoots me and you early if dictating the kills.

Chang's vote on joyrock is in my opinion a good one. It was when things were being decided and be could have went a different way. I do think sbells voting that day was suspect but there is one point where I question why he wouldn't have done further as scum there also. Still the entire sequence is very bad looking back. He tried to get that lynch somewhere else.

I do think Chang is not town. Same with Sbell. To be fair though, does that end sequence go the way it does if both are scum there. Sbell is trying to derail while his scum teammate comes and votes joyrock to pivotally put him ahead? I don't know.

Then again the day ended weirdly.

I have disliked reds slot the entire game. And I still do.

I think Ulti is pretty clearly town. I think you are pretty clearly not scum. I honestly feel Cody is pretty good. And while I have liked Plums slot less since Edumey replaced in, I was pretty good with Plum being town.

This leaves Sheep, Chang, Sbell, Crescent, Mzero.

Obviously there is 2 or 3 left depending on whether you really are town Chris, so you know the final number we need. I would like to reread mzero. Crescent is a bit troubling just from the aspect that I think if she is town she would have butted heads with me. And ulti tbqh. But, there was some stuff day 1 that has possibly made her more subdued. Idk. And I guess she has been pounding her head on the wall all game over ulti.

It's a weird game where no one has really confirmed themselves as town yet and the poe honestly is everyone. Which sucks. Lea being town fucked shit up badly as far as narrowing things down.

yeah weird game for sure, with tracker eating it day one, cop n2, and just in general some bad times.

I thought initially being comfortable killing on marth meant it was town/town because otherwise scum usually puish people for mislynching town power more, but that turned out not to be the case and instead all 3 of the people who voted joyrock eod 1 are alive which is a little strange considering wall was a one shot role so like

something by definition has to be going on with that joyrock wagon eod1

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SirChris
05/31/23 6:09:28 AM
#35:


I think so anyway.

Like if that joyrock eod wagon day 1 is all alive day 4 and is all town then I am kind of being bamboozled hard here

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Corrik7
05/31/23 6:09:47 AM
#36:


SirChris posted...
yeah weird game for sure, with tracker eating it day one, cop n2, and just in general some bad times.

I thought initially being comfortable killing on marth meant it was town/town because otherwise scum usually puish people for mislynching town power more, but that turned out not to be the case and instead all 3 of the people who voted joyrock eod 1 are alive which is a little strange considering wall was a one shot role so like

something by definition has to be going on with that joyrock wagon eod1
What topic did day 1 end in?

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SirChris
05/31/23 6:10:20 AM
#37:


also I don't mind people pulling things over on me tbh as long as I tried my best. I have enough good victories as every alignment that if someone tricks me I am happy for them moreso sad for me, even though I don't want to lose.

Easy for me to say now though since I lost my shit day 2 and have retreated to a very docile state =/

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SirChris
05/31/23 6:10:41 AM
#38:


Corrik7 posted...
What topic did day 1 end in?
topic 3

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MZero
05/31/23 6:11:00 AM
#39:


SirChris posted...
I'd rather not lose lol.

obviously lol

I mean of the two options

Corrik7 posted...
Lol. I mean, I get the idea that we would never live it down. Only thing more insufferable than Lopen post game is a gloating ulti. I just don't feel he is scum tbqh. I just don't know why he is lying about his role still. His actions don't line up with what he has been saying, his role as described is clearly broken, and if it were true, he would know that scum had a way around it to balance it yet he still acted like it couldn't be while not following where it would lead.

I still don't think he goes to gamblers fallacy for reasoning if scum though. I know you say it's dumb, but I don't think it is. I don't see it at all.

what makes him town though? I don't see it at all

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SirChris
05/31/23 6:13:02 AM
#40:


MZero posted...
obviously lol

I mean of the two options

what makes him town though? I don't see it at all

I think everything besides the claim? lmao

Like his interaction with joyrock day 1 felt super town ulti. Him not being predatory towards crescent being absent is very town ulti (unless they are exactly paired, which maybe?) and how he has handled his reads has been more town ulti than not.

I should look up some ulti town games but I am tired so not sure if I will be able to, and maybe this is just the right call but idk

Maybe Ulti just learned to play around my expectations a bit tbf, he IS a good scum player so maybe I should let my doubts lie here and roll the dice. Unsure.


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MZero
05/31/23 6:13:53 AM
#41:


SirChris posted...
also I don't mind people pulling things over on me tbh as long as I tried my best. I have enough good victories as every alignment that if someone tricks me I am happy for them moreso sad for me, even though I don't want to lose.

Easy for me to say now though since I lost my shit day 2 and have retreated to a very docile state =/

I mean, I agree with this but it's not like Ulti has played a great game. He's been caught contradicting himself numerous times and pushed lynches that make no sense given his claimed info, and has hardly contributed to town in a meaningful way

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MZero
05/31/23 6:15:07 AM
#42:


SirChris posted...
I think everything besides the claim? lmao

Like his interaction with joyrock day 1 felt super town ulti. Him not being predatory towards crescent being absent is very town ulti (unless they are exactly paired, which maybe?) and how he has handled his reads has been more town ulti than not.

I should look up some ulti town games but I am tired so not sure if I will be able to, and maybe this is just the right call but idk

Maybe Ulti just learned to play around my expectations a bit tbf, he IS a good scum player so maybe I should let my doubts lie here and roll the dice. Unsure.

i thought since you tagged me to look up his past games you remembered how I pointed how he was acting very much like scum Ulti early on :(

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SirChris
05/31/23 6:15:32 AM
#43:


MZero posted...
I mean, I agree with this but it's not like Ulti has played a great game. He's been caught contradicting himself numerous times and pushed lynches that make no sense given his claimed info, and has hardly contributed to town in a meaningful way

fair enough. I am a sucker sometimes and I don't think I have enough of a grasp of the game to enforce my will

ulti scum buddies iyo?

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SirChris
05/31/23 6:16:26 AM
#44:


MZero posted...
i thought since you tagged me to look up his past games you remembered how I pointed how he was acting very much like scum Ulti early on :(

Yeah I did remember in some ways

but in some ways he is acting like town ulti

I guess I'll just trust that corrik got his ulti/lea reads backwards and I was pushing scum ulti day 2

FOR THE EGO

(this is a joke)

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Corrik7
05/31/23 6:16:55 AM
#45:


SirChris posted...
topic 3
Oof you and ulti are where this lynch turns.

Ulti puts joy in the lead. You drop off joy to make it a 2 vote lead.

I expressed clear as day I didn't want to lynch either of them.

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#46
Post #46 was unavailable or deleted.
SirChris
05/31/23 6:20:53 AM
#47:


I probably don't bring up enough that I am rule 1 but I end game'd to day 10 and won as sk last year

What a coup

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Corrik7
05/31/23 6:21:02 AM
#48:


Okay so then you unvote wallz and try to see if there is anything behind a Crescent train.

And Crescent votes not for Marth but for joyrock bringing him to 1 behind Marth again. That's a good vote I suppose for her.


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Corrik7
05/31/23 6:21:41 AM
#49:


This is day 1. They don't know who the cop is for sure. This is their godfather.

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SirChris
05/31/23 6:22:33 AM
#50:


Ulti day 2 said he would have scanned joyrock which will be funny of ulti is scum tbh

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