Board 8 > Super Smash Bros. Mafia - Topic 6: Show Me Your Moves!

(+) Yeah! (+)

Player List
1. changmas (Zelda)
2. SirChris (Hero)
3. Cody11533 (Rosalina & Luma)
4. Corrik7 (Samus)
5. Crescent-Moon (Ike)
6. ctesjbuvf (Jigglypuff)
7. htaeD (Min Min)
8. Lea (Lucina)
9. MZero (Joker)
10. Obellisk (Sora)
11. Masterplum (Daisy)
12. red13n/Leafeon13N (Lucario)
13. RuneterranSnap (Little Mac)
14. UltimaterializerX (Peach)
15. wallmasterz (Mario)

KO'd
LD1 - UnderUrMattress (Donkey Kong) - BLUE TEAM Tracker
KN1 - PeaceFrog (Kirby) - BLUE TEAM 1-Shot Gunsmith

With 15 players, it takes 8 votes to lynch. Day ends on Wednesday at 7 PM EDT, approximately 11 hours from now.

This is the part where Lea claims

wallmasterz posted...

Oh look, the seesaw plum and Corrik are riding together has moved once again

Corrik was a seesaw last game as well, annoyingly

masterplum posted...

This is the part where Lea claims

Let's go!

htaeD posted...

Corrik was a seesaw last game as well, annoyingly

Good point, but its plum (who seems very scummy right now) sheeping that has me think theyre paired

Wallz stop being loud wrong. I think you're town

masterplum posted...

Wallz stop being loud wrong. I think you're town

The annoying part about it is that if he is loud wrong town is that he thinks he is way better than he is. Like, damn bro... you were the second strongest investigation role last game and you lead mislynch after mislynch and a God damn town vanilla knew more alignments than you.

The fact he is keeps obviously trying to link to you makes me question if he is scum, but then again, maybe he is aware enough that he has to emulate terrible town as scum to look town.

Corrik, I'm curious if you figured it out

masterplum posted...

Corrik, I'm curious if you figured it out

Not sure what you are referring to so I suppose not.

Ok

Corrik7 posted...

but scum never uses probability arguments. Ulti is town af.

this is why you think Ulti is town? lmao

MZero posted...

this is why you think Ulti is town? lmao

It's a fact. Scum minds don't think that way. I have used a ton of probability arguments. I have never done so as town. I know the mindset.

MZero posted...

this is why you think Ulti is town? lmao

the question becomes do you think he actually believes that

Corrik7 posted...

It's a fact. Scum minds don't think that way. I have used a ton of probability arguments. I have never done so as town. I know the mindset.

I do it as scum.

But I agree in general

masterplum posted...

I do it as scum.

But I agree in general

I have never seen you do it as scum, but fair enough. I have never seen scum do it. You are more analytical though. Ulti is more single minded. I don't think he goes that route as scum ever.

Corrik7 posted...

It's a fact. Scum minds don't think that way. I have used a ton of probability arguments. I have never done so as town. I know the mindset.

I assume you wanted to say "as scum" there?

Either way, I don't recall anyone ever using something "you can't roll scum 3 times in a row" before at all. It sounds pretty null to me.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I assume you wanted to say "as scum" there?

Either way, I don't recall anyone ever using something "you can't roll scum 3 times in a row" before at all. It sounds pretty null to me.

Ask vets how many times I use the argument.

I like how Corrik is basically saying 'only a town deals in absolutes'
Disregarding the fact that its an entirely flawed argument to support another flawed argument.
There is still the fact that nothing is stopping scum from using statistics.

htaeD posted...

I like how Corrik is basically saying 'only a town deals in absolutes'
Disregarding the fact that its an entirely flawed argument to support another flawed argument.
There is still the fact that nothing is stopping scum from using statistics.

They don't think that way.

And Corrik I recall your statistic arguments to be less about the chance of someone rolling the same alignment, and more about random scum/town percentages pulled out of thin air.

Im ready to lynch Lea. Done playing games here.

Corrik7 posted...

They don't think that way.

I didnt say they think it
I am saying they can 'say it'
Because yaknow thats what scum does
Saying stuff they dont think

htaeD posted...

And Corrik I recall your statistic arguments to be less about the chance of someone rolling the same alignment, and more about random scum/town percentages pulled out of thin air.

I am not dream goddess.

Wtf are you okay?

Okay I swear I yelled at you for using random percentages in a past game

htaeD posted...

I didnt say they think it
I am saying they can 'say it'
Because yaknow thats what scum does
Saying stuff they dont think

Too easily dismissed and ridiculed as fake. Serves no purpose

If my memory is wrong, thats possible.
But I also remember never accepting that you actually believed those statistics.
And I dont accept that Ulti does here either.

Its probably not a planned out statement with a purpose, that I can grant you.
But I see it as a desperate ploy to explain his fondness for Chris.

i will say not as a general rule but as an ulti specific rule as town he almost always says "so and so cannot be scum because MATH" in all caps just like that

this game he cited the math but he didn't say MATH in all caps

concerning

I mean it's a faulty argument either way. The chance of rolling scum thrice in a row for one person is like 2-3%. But the chance of at least one person of ~15 players doing that is obviously a lot higher, with how many we've played this obviously increases, so it's absolutely more likely to happen for someone now and then than never.

I'm pretty sure SBell was recently scum four times in a row even just for the example. It's not a good case. It was also straight up not the reason Ulti cited initially.

I absolutely believe in it, as most gamblers do. It's called the gamblers fallacy. Yes, in this game specifically it is a 25-33% chance they are scum, and the prior games don't matter in the odds.

However, probability is probability and eventually it will ebb back to the mean. Ultis sample size of when it should err back is a bit rudimentary as it's barely even off at that sample, but it's Ulti. I'd expect his mind works exactly that way in regards to it naturally.

The game I was wrong about utli and he was scum... I erred in assessing he could have a higher level strategy at play instead of just being scum.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I'm pretty sure SBell was recently scum four times in a row even just for the example.

it felt that way but i think i rolled indy in the middle of the streak.

But he has literally seen evidence to the contrary, as have you.

Its like trying to argue you have to win the lottery one of these days.

htaeD posted...

But he has literally seen evidence to the contrary, as have you.

Its like trying to argue you have to win the lottery one of these days.

And that sounds like town ulti. Ding ding ding

No one said ulti is correct in his assessment. I said he is town for making the argument that way.

Okay I am not trying to argue whether you are right. I am arguing whether I believe you'd believe it.
And I just cannot.

Besides why would Ulti not lead with that theory?

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Ok let's make this more clear

I have a scan on you. Claim

Obellisk posted...

it felt that way but i think i rolled indy in the middle of the streak.

I checked and I did forget a game in between.

It was
Scum
Killed N1
Scum
Scum
Scum
Killed N1

So never four in a row I guess.

Anyway the important part is not how good the argument is, it's that Ulti presented a different case for why Chris was town.

Told you all Lea was scum. Good job, plum.

Oh
Well okay that sounds promising

ctesjbuvf posted...

I checked and I did forget a game in between.

It was
Scum
Killed N1
Scum
Scum
Scum
Killed N1

So never four in a row I guess.

And its a wonder why my town game may be not be comparable to the greats.

Sbell if you're town you need to lighten up.
I know you can play well when you find the time.

htaeD posted...

Sbell if you're town you need to lighten up.
I know you can play well when you find the time.

No its good, I'm good. We're good.

I know I can play just fine, i find great humor in all the "You are horrible" comments directed at me. I mean look, Ctes just pointed out 6 games where I was either Scum or Killed Night 1.

I'm playing my game as best I know how.

Plum if you do, wouldn't it have been better to maybe sit on it a day?

Obellisk posted...

Plum if you do, wouldn't it have been better to maybe sit on it a day?

I don't think we need two mislynches before someone reveals they had scum the prior day and causes distrust of their scan authenticity.

Hey you had various great scumgames at least. Fooled me several times.

Everyone has their moments. It's hillarious how long SBell did not get to play a d2 as town. While anticipating what comes of Plum confronting Lea, I looked further back and it's

Indy
Lynched D1 as doctor
Scum
Killed N1
Scum
Scum
Scum
Killed N1

So 8 games in a row without SBell playing d2 as town, what a darn record.

Corrik7 posted...

I don't think we need two mislynches before someone reveals they had scum the prior day and causes distrust of their scan authenticity.

And i dont disagree with you, I just thought we still had a chance to veer things off of Ulti today without needing to out power.