Board 8 > Reality TV Discussion Topic: Survivor, Amazing Race, Big Brother, etc.

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BlueCrystalTear
05/17/23 9:10:54 PM
#402:


Some notes:
  • Relieved that Carolyn was okay - I legit thought she was done, and so did she after Carson's "break up" comment set off alarm bells. He will tell her he needed her to react shocked, because...
  • Everyone knew Jaime had an idol, even though she didn't, and he didn't want her playing it. If Carolyn doesn't react naturally to those comments, Jaime plays it.
  • Yam-Yam was stupid to think he should turn on Carolyn now, because if he did that, he set up the very likely possibility of Jaime, Lauren, and Heidi teaming up against him and Carson. They would realize they had to work together to take out the two guys who were the biggest threats.
  • The "start over" thing at F5 is so dumb, and Jeff should know that now that this cast knew exactly what to expect after three seasons of it. Jeff also needs to realize that when you DM, you need to not run the same campaign over and over and over, because players figure you out. Change it up a little!
  • Heidi wasted her idol. Best move would've been to vote for Carolyn and play the idol on herself, thus eliminating Carolyn because the guys flip. Jaime gets safety for a rock draw and Carson and Yam-Yam would never be the only two drawing rocks.
  • Carolyn or Carson is winning this. I don't see Yam-Yam winning after tonight. We already knew Lauren and Heidi had zero shot.

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Underleveled
05/17/23 9:33:37 PM
#403:


BlueCrystalTear posted...
Jeff also needs to realize that when you DM, you need to not run the same campaign over and over and over, because players figure you out. Change it up a little!
I don't even play D&D and I think this is a very apt comparison.

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darkx
Games beaten in 2023 - 7; Most recent - Professor Layton and the Curious Village
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Underleveled
05/17/23 9:35:49 PM
#404:


BlueCrystalTear posted...
Carolyn or Carson is winning this. I don't see Yam-Yam winning after tonight. We already knew Lauren and Heidi had zero shot.
Yeah I'd say in terms of winner's edit strength it goes Carolyn > Yam-Yam > Carson > Lauren > Heidi, and in terms of viable path to victory, flip Carson and Yam-Yam.

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darkx
Games beaten in 2023 - 7; Most recent - Professor Layton and the Curious Village
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Naye745
05/17/23 10:12:29 PM
#405:


i think carson and yam yam made the correct move - at least the way the edit is selling us (with what the players are saying), all the tikas are big threats to win and would have ended up getting eaten by the numbers if they turn on each other here

that said, the edit is telling me over and over that carolyn wins and i am finding it hard to believe that (correct or not) yam yam's "prophecy" will not be proven true

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Chaeix
05/18/23 6:27:02 PM
#406:


Ive basically expected Lauren to go home every week because her edit doesnt scream Final 3 to me (she just doesnt have a story?) but I feel like it has to be Carolyn/Heidi/Lauren for Carolyn to have a convincing win. I dont know if she beats Yam Yam at F3 and I think Carson is destined to lose at fire but I think shes the winner so I feel like it kind of has to be Lauren there?

Heidi/Carolyn/Lauren were also all at that reward in Frannys boot episode where they talked about women being at the end so it at least lines up with that I think?

What does B8 think - does Lauren go out at 5 or make it to F3?

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<DeathChicken> you are my hero for being the first person to cite National Geographic in Mercs
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Inviso
05/18/23 6:50:59 PM
#407:


I would think an all-Tika final three is more likely than Lauren making the finals. I could see her going out at 5 as a challenge threat, then Carson beats Heidi in fire-making.

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Inviso
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Underleveled
05/18/23 8:21:45 PM
#408:


Inviso posted...
I would think an all-Tika final three is more likely than Lauren making the finals. I could see her going out at 5 as a challenge threat, then Carson beats Heidi in fire-making.
I think this is what we're looking at. I think the jury knocks Carson for being a little too sure of himself compared to his actual performance, Yam-Yam for being too snarky to the point where it sometimes came off as mean or confrontational, and both for not getting rid of Carolyn when they had the opportunity. Carolyn defends her game and reveals herself to have been well aware of what was going on the whole time and the jury buys it and gives her the win.

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darkx
Games beaten in 2023 - 7; Most recent - Professor Layton and the Curious Village
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Underleveled
05/18/23 10:08:36 PM
#409:


By the way, the Survivor 45 cast has leaked...

We're finally seeing one of the most conspicuously outstanding names with our first Emily, which I'd say officially leaves Tim as the biggest "how the fuck have they not gotten one yet?" Also, for the first time in Survivor history, there is exactly one (technically) returning player - Bruce is getting another go. Hopefully a real one this time.

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darkx
Games beaten in 2023 - 7; Most recent - Professor Layton and the Curious Village
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Mewtwo59
05/18/23 10:15:17 PM
#410:


I'm hoping a Carolyn win is over Yam Yam and not Heidi/Lauren. It'd be the first time since Tina beat Colby all the way back in season 2 that a mom beats actual competition at FTC (and no, Parvati was not actual competition).

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Chaeix
05/18/23 11:01:41 PM
#411:


Underleveled posted...
I think this is what we're looking at. I think the jury knocks Carson for being a little too sure of himself compared to his actual performance, Yam-Yam for being too snarky to the point where it sometimes came off as mean or confrontational, and both for not getting rid of Carolyn when they had the opportunity. Carolyn defends her game and reveals herself to have been well aware of what was going on the whole time and the jury buys it and gives her the win.
I think Carson loses in fire making to Heidi

Has Lauren had any backstory clips in her edit? I feel like she did in the first few eps but not having one postmerge is probably the nail in her coffin

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<DeathChicken> you are my hero for being the first person to cite National Geographic in Mercs
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Mewtwo59
05/19/23 1:44:56 AM
#412:


I think she did in the family letter episode. Even if she didn't, there's still time. Xander didn't get one until right before FTC. (And Lauren is likely to get the same amount of votes as he did.)

---
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Chaeix
05/24/23 1:30:53 PM
#413:


Hmmmm

So I'm 13th in Wentworth's draft and I don't think in closing range if I don't do the yolo pick of a Lauren/Heidi/Carolyn F3 even though I feel like it's going to be Yam Yam/Carolyn/Heidi. I'm also the only one near the top with Carolyn as my winner pick.

Do I do the yolo pick and throw Lauren in the F3 with the hopes that she was edited negligently or play it safe and hope for the best?

I feel like I kind of have to play it safe because Lauren literally got no development after her F6 immunity win. I'm really struggling to see how she isn't the F5 boot edit-wise even though it'd make sense for the Tika 3 to implode on the F5 vote.

---
we're all buds~jc~
<DeathChicken> you are my hero for being the first person to cite National Geographic in Mercs
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Dels
05/24/23 1:38:04 PM
#414:


Lauren doesn't make sense as final 3, yeah.

If you want to yolo something why not put Carson in the final 3...? Like Yam Yam out at firemaking as the big threat, then Carolyn beats Carson at the end because of her life experience/being a mom/etc. That seems like an unlikely but still vaguely plausible outcome, rather than anything with Lauren at f3.
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Chaeix
05/24/23 1:46:37 PM
#415:


Dels posted...
Lauren doesn't make sense as final 3, yeah.

If you want to yolo something why not put Carson in the final 3...? Like Yam Yam out at firemaking as the big threat, then Carolyn beats Carson at the end because of her life experience/being a mom/etc. That seems like an unlikely but still vaguely plausible outcome, rather than anything with Lauren at f3.
I'm way too confident about Carson losing fire to Heidi here tbh

---
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<DeathChicken> you are my hero for being the first person to cite National Geographic in Mercs
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MartinFF7
05/24/23 1:55:30 PM
#416:


If Heidi goes out in 5th somehow it will immediately be my fav finale in a while. Or Yam Yam 5th and Heidi 4th. Gimme those two eliminations and I'll just be over the moon!!
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Chaeix
05/24/23 1:56:40 PM
#417:


Ngl I saw Heidi in f3 as soon as she had her 'tiny but mighty' line so while I agree it would be great for her not to reach f3, I feel like it's a foregone conclusion

Hopefully I'm wrong in my certainty!

---
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<DeathChicken> you are my hero for being the first person to cite National Geographic in Mercs
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Mewtwo59
05/24/23 2:38:31 PM
#418:


Chaeix posted...
Hmmmm

So I'm 13th in Wentworth's draft and I don't think in closing range if I don't do the yolo pick of a Lauren/Heidi/Carolyn F3 even though I feel like it's going to be Yam Yam/Carolyn/Heidi. I'm also the only one near the top with Carolyn as my winner pick.

Do I do the yolo pick and throw Lauren in the F3 with the hopes that she was edited negligently or play it safe and hope for the best?

I feel like I kind of have to play it safe because Lauren literally got no development after her F6 immunity win. I'm really struggling to see how she isn't the F5 boot edit-wise even though it'd make sense for the Tika 3 to implode on the F5 vote.

Does anyone near the top have Yam Yam or Carson as their winner pick? If not, I'd play it safe and just hope for the Carolyn win.

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Chaeix
05/24/23 3:18:05 PM
#419:


Mewtwo59 posted...
Does anyone near the top have Yam Yam or Carson as their winner pick? If not, I'd play it safe and just hope for the Carolyn win.
Basically everyone else has Yam Yam

Im the Carolyn truther.

---
we're all buds~jc~
<DeathChicken> you are my hero for being the first person to cite National Geographic in Mercs
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foolm0r0n
05/24/23 3:26:23 PM
#420:


I think if all Tika is F3 then Carolyn > Yam Yam > Carson. I do think Yam Yam could win since he's super convincing socially, especially in the recent episodes where they've shown him talking 1:1. Carolyn is more generally likably but not 1:1 likable. Carson somehow gets everyone on his side too, maybe the babyface effect or something? But that's not gonna win you F3.

If Yam Yam can get Carolyn out F5 then he wins due to big move respect. If Carson does that then I think Yam Yam might still have the edge but it would be close.

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_foolmo_
he says listen to my story this maybe are last chance
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Underleveled
05/24/23 3:37:09 PM
#421:


I'm feeling really confident in a Tika F3

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darkx
Games beaten in 2023 - 7; Most recent - Professor Layton and the Curious Village
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Chaeix
05/24/23 7:41:32 PM
#422:


I wont be able to watch until tomorrow night so rip my ability to go on other social media for the next 24h

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we're all buds~jc~
<DeathChicken> you are my hero for being the first person to cite National Geographic in Mercs
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Underleveled
05/24/23 8:08:04 PM
#423:


So glad we're getting a 5 minute idol scramble in the finale instead of, you know Rites of Passage or something like that

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darkx
Games beaten in 2023 - 7; Most recent - Professor Layton and the Curious Village
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Blaziken
05/24/23 8:11:25 PM
#424:


I'm both hyped and nervous.

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Inviso thinks all starters should be Fire/Fighting.
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Mewtwo59
05/24/23 8:12:31 PM
#425:


If it wasn't an idol, it would've been a challenge advantage like the last 3 seasons.

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MartinFF7
05/24/23 8:13:28 PM
#426:


Underleveled posted...
So glad we're getting a 5 minute idol scramble in the finale instead of, you know Rites of Passage or something like that

This is good because my usual source for watching Survivor finales live fell through so I've been going through my own 5 minute scramble here, lol...
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Mewtwo59
05/24/23 8:19:08 PM
#427:


I see that they gave them smaller poles this time so Cody's hack won't work.

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Blaziken
05/24/23 8:26:56 PM
#428:


That's my first prediction come true. Carson winning immunity, since F5 is always an obstacle course with a puzzle at the end.

Next prediction is Lauren going home in an obvious vote.

Then F4 is tougher. I wanna say Carolyn wins immunity, but that might be wishful thinking. I'll still say it. Carolyn wins F4 immunity and sends Carson/Heidi to make fire. Heidi wins!

F3 is Carolyn/Yam Yam/Heidi, and it's a close vote between Carolyn and Yam Yam, but she wins out in the end.

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Inviso thinks all starters should be Fire/Fighting.
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MartinFF7
05/24/23 8:28:08 PM
#429:


I am clinging to hope that bringing Yam Yam with him was a ploy to keep him away from camp so the other 3 will target him and he's out at F5

so close to potential greatness...

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BlueCrystalTear
05/24/23 8:28:11 PM
#430:


Underleveled posted...
So glad we're getting a 5 minute idol scramble in the finale instead of, you know Rites of Passage or something like that
So did I not miss anything when Hulu ate the first 20ish minute of the episode?

Blaziken posted...
Then F4 is tougher. I wanna say Carolyn wins immunity, but that might be wishful thinking. I'll still say it. Carolyn wins F4 immunity and sends Carson/Heidi to make fire. Heidi wins!

F3 is Carolyn/Yam Yam/Heidi, and it's a close vote between Carolyn and Yam Yam, but she wins out in the end.
I have Carolyn losing immunity but beating Carson at fire.

---
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Mewtwo59
05/24/23 8:31:22 PM
#431:


So this is the point where it turns out Lauren was a big threat all along to justify her boot at the final 5?

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BlueCrystalTear
05/24/23 8:33:03 PM
#432:


Mewtwo59 posted...
So this is the point where it turns out Lauren was a big threat all along to justify her boot at the final 5?
"She's a big threat. She's played a great game. She has a lot of friends on the jury."

So... Jaime, Kane, and Brandon are "a lot" of friends? Why have we not been privy to this information?

Also, I didn't miss anything in the first 20 minutes, right?

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MartinFF7
05/24/23 8:35:16 PM
#433:


"Maybe I will vote for Yam Yam"

*head-tilt-pose to the camera*

absolute queen

BlueCrystalTear posted...
Also, I didn't miss anything in the first 20 minutes, right?

pretty sure not. People were idol hunting and nobody found it (at least from what we saw)

when I tuned in, each player was going through their list of accomplishments/why they think they'll win (in the course of their failed idol hunt). And like... that's it I think. Carson wins challenge since it was a puzzle (literally the puzzle they showed him doing when he first brought up how he 3D printed puzzles iirc)
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BlueCrystalTear
05/24/23 8:43:39 PM
#434:


Yam-Yam has every reason to tell Lauren a fib to keep his name out of the urn. She can't trust that he's voting for Carolyn. However, she CAN trust that Carolyn will vote for Yam-Yam if she tells Carolyn what Yam is doing.

MartinFF7 posted...
when I tuned in, each player was going through their list of accomplishments/why they think they'll win (in the course of their failed idol hunt). And like... that's it I think. Carson wins challenge since it was a puzzle (literally the puzzle they showed him doing when he first brought up how he 3D printed puzzles iirc)
Alright, thank you. Sounds like it was just recap stuff and Carson being Carson.

---
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Underleveled
05/24/23 8:50:10 PM
#435:


I'd care a lot more about this if Lauren hadn't gotten the worst edit of any final five member in the post covid era

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darkx
Games beaten in 2023 - 7; Most recent - Professor Layton and the Curious Village
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Underleveled
05/24/23 8:52:10 PM
#436:


Lauren getting this exit music feels so weird

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darkx
Games beaten in 2023 - 7; Most recent - Professor Layton and the Curious Village
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Mewtwo59
05/24/23 8:52:40 PM
#437:


Underleveled posted...
I'd care a lot more about this if Lauren hadn't gotten the worst edit of any final five member in the post covid era

How quickly we've forgotten Heather

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Blaziken
05/24/23 8:52:51 PM
#438:


Underleveled posted...
I'd care a lot more about this if Lauren hadn't gotten the worst edit of any final five member in the post covid era

This is exactly it. Like, Ricard got the same kind of super positive send-off, but he'd also been built up as a major player all of the season, who took out Shan before she could take him out.

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Inviso thinks all starters should be Fire/Fighting.
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MartinFF7
05/24/23 8:55:49 PM
#439:


Okay we are trending towards the Inviso timeline here, what's next...

Blaziken posted...
Carolyn wins F4 immunity and sends Carson/Heidi to make fire. Heidi wins!

Love the first half, hate the second

What kind of challenge can Carolyn actually win though? Thinking of F4 challenges, well the first one that comes to mind is the "balls rolling down the contraption, grab them with only one free hand" and I just can't see her doing that.

Other than that it's what... balance challenges? stacking 10 blocks on a platform while holding a rope? What are we in store for...
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Mewtwo59
05/24/23 8:57:33 PM
#440:


I think the most likely outcome is Carson tries to pull an Underwood and fails. I can't see Carolyn or Yam Yam winning the next immunity.

---
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Underleveled
05/24/23 8:58:41 PM
#441:


Oh hello stranger

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darkx
Games beaten in 2023 - 7; Most recent - Professor Layton and the Curious Village
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Blaziken
05/24/23 8:58:52 PM
#442:


Simmotion AGAIN?

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Inviso thinks all starters should be Fire/Fighting.
http://i.imgur.com/oOSm64C.gif
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MartinFF7
05/24/23 8:59:31 PM
#443:


I hope Carson was able to reproduce this!!
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BlueCrystalTear
05/24/23 9:05:05 PM
#444:


Lauren's sendoff was over-the-top for the edit she got. I found myself not caring, because the edit didn't give her the treatment she should have received.

Simmotion is officially lame for a Final IC. I much prefer a painful, straight-up endurance to test how bad someone wants it. A focus challenge does not t do that.

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Underleveled
05/24/23 9:06:02 PM
#445:


Well I'll be damned

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darkx
Games beaten in 2023 - 7; Most recent - Professor Layton and the Curious Village
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Mewtwo59
05/24/23 9:06:58 PM
#446:


When did Carolyn win an individual immunity?

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Blaziken
05/24/23 9:07:09 PM
#447:


I mean, I called Heidi making FTC, but I didn't expect her to win the FIC.

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Inviso thinks all starters should be Fire/Fighting.
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MartinFF7
05/24/23 9:07:39 PM
#448:


fuck Heidi i STILL hate her so much

just hope so much she gets 0 votes and jury trashes her but I'm legit afraid she gets like, 3 or 4 votes
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Blaziken
05/24/23 9:08:28 PM
#449:


Mewtwo59 posted...
When did Carolyn win an individual immunity?

I thought the same thing.

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Inviso thinks all starters should be Fire/Fighting.
http://i.imgur.com/oOSm64C.gif
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Blaziken
05/24/23 9:10:07 PM
#450:


Honestly, if Heidi goes to FMC and loses, that would be an amazing end to the story of someone flopping every time she tries to make a big move.

---
Inviso thinks all starters should be Fire/Fighting.
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Mewtwo59
05/24/23 9:10:52 PM
#451:


Blaziken posted...
Honestly, if Heidi goes to FMC and loses, that would be an amazing end to the story of someone flopping every time she tries to make a big move.

Hoping this happens

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