Board 8 > Stock Topic 37

(+) Yeah! (+)

So, I think Im done with this topic series. We had a very good run that spanned like two years or something. But the market is no longer insane like it used to be and I dont care much to get into random stocks anymore. Maybe if the market gets crazy again or something Ill change my mind.

I probably wont bump this topic anymore or make new ones. By all means if anyone else wants to, go right ahead.

Moonroof posted...

So, I think Im done with this topic series. We had a very good run that spanned like two years or something. But the market is no longer insane like it used to be and I dont care much to get into random stocks anymore. Maybe if the market gets crazy again or something Ill change my mind.

I probably wont bump this topic anymore or make new ones. By all means if anyone else wants to, go right ahead.

What? These topics are great!

Also, that post sounds a lot like capitulation which means it's time to buy.

I'll make new ones if no one else does. Not that I'll have much to post till BBIG pops.

Fami (Chinese mushroom stock) is looking primed to run. I will say that this is the first runner that is going to make me legit sad to be on BBIG if it does (largely because most things have been bleeding as bad or worse than BBIG) because I really do think when it gets compliance back in the next few days by remaining over $1 it could easily double+.

But can't get off this play!

I got wrecked a little bit on RIGL yesterday. I sold half my position a while ago so I'm pretty much playing with house money but was really hoping that would pan out. Things don't look great but the name sounds like a good bio/pharma company.

I've done so damned well with COP over the last year. lets not talk about anything else.

FAMIs chart is horrendous. Im staying away.

COP is the first one Ive seen in awhile that has actually been trending up all this time.

Fami just reverse split (which is why it was being bled dry, to force the reverse) 25:1. But once it holds $1 for 2 weeks to regain compliance I think it'll run up to closer to $3-$4 as that's much closer to fair value even ignoring growth potential.

And no I wouldn't recommend Fami as anything resembling a safe play. It's a Chinese penny stock could easily see it dropping more. But I'd dump 10k on it no problem at these levels if I wasn't sitting so much money in BBIG.

I'm going to guess FAMI went through some major dilution over the last 4 years or so to achieve a -99.5% return.

As far as oil companies go, congrats to Lopen for calling this a year or so ago but I don't see a lot of upside left on this. If oil prices come back down those stocks are probably coming down too.

Yeah. Unfortunately my gains from oil were just like 10k on BP

If I'd done my "rock solid strategy" of dumping my whole portfolio in 2023 20c on BP though I'd have had a 7-8 bagger by now. Oh well.

my COP position isn't super huge, I just liked the oil+dividend play. I imagine it was last summer when greengravy was asking for advice. My top performers in the past 10-12 months are all dividend stocks.

tomorrow I think we get CPI numbers.

I bought a bunch of NCLH today in the 13s, something to check in on in a couple of years. I am sure they'll drop even lower but I feel like there's no reason to think they'll be this low in like 2025.

Crazy money scheme

Sell a bunch of Redbox puts that are well out of the money for 1/20/2023

Seems like guaranteed to make money unless Redbox literally goes out of business. 2p in particular gives 50% returns right now.

Super tinfoil hat theory here is RDBX is "the distraction" that people called AMC back in the day. (It has 200% reported short interest but that only amounts to a few million shares-- if they were in any danger and needed to cover they could easily cover). It running on a super red day to draw the most eyes is too convenient for me.

I have this feeling a bunch of stuff is going to run next week while RDBX dumps.

Got crushed on my GS puts. This market is brutal. DOW might actually go below $30k.

I think this day may be the most bullish I've been on BBIG in a while

We're up $0.01 today standing in the rivers of red. It feels so safe here.

Moonroof posted...

Got crushed on my GS puts. This market is brutal. DOW might actually go below $30k.

Wish it would hurry up and get there so we can get this bear market over with.

BBIG is at its longstanding support around $2. Hasn't been below this support since end of 2020.

I have 202 2.5c for next week

Let's see if my ability to read this stock's price movements has evolved. Looking good right now. Seeing a $2.50ish close today and a $5ish close next week.

I estimate a 1% chance of either of those predictions happening.

Making estimates on stocks you don't know anything about is par the course

Are you expecting a new date for the TYDE spinoff to be announced by next week?

Yes. And Hudson Bay's sell lockdown ends on 6/17. Think a pump before the news is coming with Hudson aiming to re-short the top. Price and volume action is on par with previous pumps.

Looks like half of my prediction was correct. Lets see what happens next week.

We still have 4 hours of after hours to run

Lopen posted...

We still have 4 hours of after hours to run

Lopen posted...

close today

Nope. Going to award this one to Moonroof. Market close already happened!

BBIG wont even be above $3.00 by Friday.

Okay well I meant AH and make the same amount of money regardless so it doesn't matter to me where the points go if it runs after hours

Okay NOW he gets a point.

Although Monday PM gap up to 2.50 won't make me upset.

Lets just extend it to December 2023

Oct 15 is my real deadline. Dec 2023 too far

Wow futures are blood red and crypto is crashing hard.

my BTC (33k) saw my BBIG stock and said hold my beer

I already lost all my money so I dont care any more!

I'm back to just throwing in a thousand or so every few weeks and not really paying attention. Active investing wasnt good for my health

DCA days and long horizons

Long horizons is key.

I still think a circuit breaker day would be helpful for marking a turnaround. We are halfway there today.

So I see GS has an P/E ratio in the 5 area. Moonroof, I know you've been trading GS stock a lot..... do you know what's the deal here? Why is the P/E so low?

I have no idea. But I stopped trading altogether since last week though. I dont even want to look at my 401(k).

I feel like GS has some risk priced in because of the rocky state of the economy

Obviously it shouldn't be a 5 p/e and wouldnt be if we weren't trying to force a market crash but it does carry some risks.

I lost all my money
I am bankrupt
GG

Looks like we're officially in a bear market.

I'm down about 15k since the start of the year. I wish I did more dollar cost averaging (as I put in most of my savings in stocks as I left the housing market) but oh well.

Nanis23 posted...

I lost all my money
I am bankrupt
GG

Given that you've said before your portfolio is mostly cash, I doubt that.

On paper I'm down 40k this year btw.

I still think I win in the long run but it does hurt.

I admire that Cathie Wood is still talking about how we are going to get deflation soon. Takes a lot of courage to keep going like this.

I certainly feel deflated

BBIG showing 70-80 Dark Pool and 300 CTB last two days

Weird to still feel confident in my 2.5c that expire Friday but I do. Think the fed meeting is going to cause it to pop no matter how the markets react (if they go down, margin calls = shorts must cover. If they go up, BBIG goes up, shorts must cover due to absurd CTB).

Throw on that Tyde S1 should happen by end of week and we've got quite a storm brewing. Might get some more (further out) calls while we're down here.

At this point I think the market might react better to a bigger rate hike, on the theory that that'll get inflation down faster and maybe decrease the total amount of time we spend at elevated rates.

Yeah. I think .75 makes market moon (buy the (bad) news (which is actually good in a way)) and .50 makes market tank personally, on that same logic. We'll see what happens.

Also crypto falling off the face of the earth tells me hedges are scrambling for liquidity to cover soon.

Why would short hedge funds be scrambling? They're raking in the profits right now with everything down a lot.

I said they're scrambling for liquidity, not scared. To cover a short position you need to buy it. This is a good time to cover short positions.

The problem is everything is down so they don't want to sell their long assets, so they have to pull it from somewhere ie Crypto. Crypto tends to tank a bit before short stocks squeeze, historically. Check GME and AMC run prices and compare to the price of BTC.

Also a lot of the market going down has been a result of short selling, not long selling, so while they're up the actual amount they're up isn't as much as you'd think, and the funds that get out last get punished hard if the market actually recovers.

Lopen posted...

I said they're scrambling for liquidity, not scared. To cover a short position you need to buy it. This is a good time to cover short positions.

The problem is everything is down so they don't want to sell their long assets, so they have to pull it from somewhere ie Crypto. Crypto tends to tank a bit before short stocks squeeze, historically. Check GME and AMC run prices and compare to the price of BTC.

Also a lot of the market going down has been a result of short selling, not long selling, so while they're up the actual amount they're up isn't as much as you'd think, and the funds that get out last get punished hard if the market actually recovers.

Covering increases their liquidity. They're trading on portfolio margin anyway. If they move from a net short position to a net neutral position their margin usage goes down.