Board 8 > Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 80 [smfffc]

(+) Yeah! (+)

th3l3fty posted...

the wildest NR deficit run was Kain's tbh

was there a better gamble than Delita though

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LiquidOshawott posted...

Jessie aka Walmart Aerith

Why must you be so hurtful?


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OK time for an IRON UPDATE

Day 1: Ba'gamnan (Burke)
Day 2: Vayne (Bubu)
Day 3: Leon (Socko)
Day 4: Leon (WhiteLens)
Day 5: Ba'gamnan (Martin)
Day 6: Leon (Inviso)
Day 7: Cait Sith (Inviso)
Day 8: Relm (Xuxon)
Day 9: Relm (Xuxon)
Day 10: Red Mage (Inviso)
Day 11: Cindy (Socko)
Day 12: Relm (Xuxon)
Day 13: Setzer (Inviso)
Day 14: Gilgamesh (Xuxon)
Day 15: Red Mage (Martin)
Day 16: Relm (Inviso)
Day 17: Noctis (Andy)
Day 18: Mira (Socko)
Day 19: Beatrix (Bubu)
Day 20: Relm (Socko)
Day 21: Leblanc (Burke)
Day 22: Edgar (Inviso)
Day 23: Cait Sith (Bane)
Day 24: Laguna (BlackDra90n)
Day 25: Garland (yellowwolley)
Day 26: Lulu (Andy)
Day 27: Garland (Koala)
Day 28: Mira (Bubu)
Day 29: Shiva (Socko)
Day 30: Estinien (Socko)
Day 31: Edgar (mnk)
Day 32: Galuf (Arti)
Day 33: Mira (Andy)
Day 34: Freya (guffguy)
Day 35: Kain (WarThaNemesis)
Day 36: Balthier (Inviso)
Day 37: Mira (Inviso)
Day 38: Shiva (MI)
Day 39: Quistis (Inviso)
Day 40: Leblanc (Lopen)
Day 41: Rydia (Martin)
Day 42: Ashe (bubu)
Day 43: Mira (tennis)
Day 44: Mira (Martin)
Day 45: Agrias (ArkofTurus)
Day 46: Vivi (BlackDra90n)
Day 47: Kuja (Martin)
Day 48: Mira (Socko)
Day 49: Rinoa (Socko)
Day 50: Faris (Inviso)
Day 51: Kain (bubu)
Day 52: Gilgamesh (Xuxon)
Day 53: Quistis (TheKnightOfNee)
Day 54: Layle (GMUN)
Day 55: Kain (Socko)
Day 56: Galuf (Inviso)
Day 57: Ignis (BlackDra90n)
Day 58: Galuf (ArkofTurus)
Day 59: Ardyn (burke)
Day 60: Ardyn (Martin)
Day 61: Rinoa (lhg)
Day 62: Ardyn (tennis)
Day 63: Cid P (red)
Day 64: Ardyn (charon)
Day 65: Ignis (VI)
Day 66: Gilgamesh (GMUN)
Day 67: Squall (Socko)
Day 68: Kain (ken)
Day 69: Cid P (Janus)
Day 70: Cid P (Nanis)
Day 71: Yuna (Bane)
Day 72: Beatrix (Moonroof)
Day 73: Lightning (bubu)
Day 74: Tidus (Esuriat)
Day 75: Celes (tennis)
Day 76: Lightning (andy)
Day 77: Garnet (luis)
Day 78: Garnet (Martin)
Day 79: Lightning (Roba)
Day 80: Lightning (bubu)

Snipestats:

Inviso: 11
Socko: 10
Martin: 7
Bubu: 7
Xuxon: 5
Andy: 4
BlackDra90n: 3
Burke: 3
tennis: 3
ArkofTurus: 2
GMUN: 2
Bane: 2
WhiteLens, yellowwolley, Koala, mnk, arti, guffguy, War, MI, Lopen, KnightOfNee, lhg, red, charon, VI, ken, Janus, Nanis, moonroof, Esuriat, luis, Roba: 1

Iron Man standings:
Lightning: 4 (Days 73, 76, 79, 80)
Galuf: 3 (Days 32, 56, 58)
Beatrix: 2 (Days 19, 72)
Ignis: 2 (Days 57, 65)
Estinien: 1 (Day 30)
Freya: 1 (Day 34)
Agrias: 1 (Day 45)
Yuna: 1 (Day 71)
Celes: 1 (Day 75)

Mira: 7 (Days 18, 28, 33, 37, 43, 44, 48) Eliminated Day 50: Lasted 32 extra days
Relm: 5 (Days 8, 9, 12, 16, 20) Eliminated Day 23: Lasted 15 extra days
Kain: 4 (Days 35, 51, 55, 68) Eliminated Day 70: Lasted 35 extra days
Ardyn: 4 (Days 59, 60, 62, 64) Eliminated Day 66: Lasted 7 extra days
Gilgamesh: 3 (Days 14, 52, 66) Eliminated Day 72: Lasted 58 extra days
Cid P: 3 (Days 63, 69, 70) Eliminated Day 78: Lasted 15 extra days
Leon: 3 (Days 3, 4, 6) Eliminated Day 9: Lasted 6 extra days
Garland: 2 (Days 25, 27) Eliminated Day 67: Lasted 42 extra days
Edgar: 2 (Days 22, 31) Eliminated Day 54: Lasted 32 extra days
Leblanc: 2 (Days 21, 40) Eliminated Day 44: Lasted 23 extra days
Cait Sith: 2 (Days 7, 23) Eliminated Day 28: Lasted 21 extra days
Quistis: 2 (Day 39, 53) Eliminated Day 59: Lasted 20 extra days
Rinoa: 2 (Days 49, 61) Eliminated Day 63: Lasted 14 extra days
Shiva: 2 (Days 29, 38) Eliminated Day 40: Lasted 11 extra days
Ba'gamnan: 2 (Days 1, 5) Eliminated Day 10: Lasted 9 extra days
Red Mage: 2 (Days 10, 15) Eliminated Day 18: Lasted 8 extra days
Garnet: 2 (Days 77, 78) Eliminated Day 80: Lasted 3 extra days
Noctis: 1 (Day 17) Eliminated Day 39: Lasted 22 extra days
Lulu: 1 (Day 26) Eliminated Day 46: Lasted 20 extra days
Setzer: 1 (Day 13) Eliminated Day 27: Lasted 14 extra days
Cindy: 1 (Day 11) Eliminated Day 25: Lasted 14 extra days
Squall: 1 (Day 67) Eliminated Day 79: Lasted 12 extra days
Kuja: 1 (Day 47) Eliminated Day 56: Lasted 9 extra days
Layle: 1 (Day 54) Eliminated Day 62: Lasted 8 extra days
Rydia: 1 (Day 41) Eliminated Day 49: Lasted 8 extra days
Ashe: 1 (Day 42) Eliminated Day 47: Lasted 5 extra days
Balthier: 1 (Day 36) Eliminated Day 41: Lasted 5 extra days
Laguna: 1 (Day 24) Eliminated Day 29: Lasted 5 extra days
Faris: 1 (Day 50) Eliminated Day 52: Lasted 2 extra days
Vivi: 1 (Day 46) Eliminated Day 48: Lasted 2 extra days
Tidus: 1 (Day 74) Eliminated Day 75: Lasted 1 extra day
Vayne: 1 (Day 2) Eliminated Day 3: Lasted 1 extra day

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The wildest NR deficit was me owing like 10 saves to get Cloud of Darkness through one more round with only me around for her.

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th3l3fty posted...

the wildest NR deficit run was Kain's tbh

my greatest modern accomplishment

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Likely her last Iron Man this year, but Id been preparing to find a backup for a while now so Im pleasantly surprised she managed to make top 20. Its beyond what I expected this year.

Dont worry about any NR for me, Nanis.

Top 20 is definitely respectable since I think youre the only one maining her!

And she could still go a bit further I think!

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My top 10 predix is down to 8/10 but Algus/Agrias was always a coinflip and Garnet was me hoping for the best. If I may make a new one for top 20:

Freya
Agrias
Rikku
Yuna
Selphie
Sephiroth
Galuf
Estinien
Kefka
Ktjn

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survived the dentist appointment today... at least in SMFFFC. need fillings for the first time in over a decade.

and possibly got some NRs even? nice

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my top 10 predix have survived unscathed
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RedLeafFan posted...

Dont worry about any NR for me, Nanis.

Thank you

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Oh yeah I'll keep track of anyone's top 10 predixes if you want to post them! I will post my own soon, too.

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oh guess no NRs, still, better than owing them which is what i thought i would need 5 days ago

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MartinFF7 posted...

So it's looking like:

Socko owes ecksgem (Rikku) and bubu (Selphie)
pj owes bubu (Selphie but he'd save her anyways...)
Nanis owes RedLeafFan (Kefka Day 81 and 82)

assuming the Socko/pj NRs cancel each other out

Also the Socko/TotallyNotMI trade partnership still needs to be sorted out...?

Do you per chance know who my hour 1 auto Yuna/Rikku for Barret is?

I thought it was Maniac, but he saved him at the end. So I have no idea.

It is Maniac but he also really likes Barret and traded for him once YRP were safe

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Mobilezoid posted...

It is Maniac but he also really likes Barret and traded for him once YRP were safe

Oh. Great. Swell old chap that.

Mobilezoid posted...

My top 10 predix is down to 8/10 but Algus/Agrias was always a coinflip and Garnet was me hoping for the best. If I may make a new one for top 20:

Ah I remember 5 rounds ago lamenting you having Seph as last FF7 standing... were the last two days a fluke or is momentum building?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxN4_wjgDVE

Galuf Halm Baldesion
Kefka Palazzo
Aerith Gainsborough
Jessie Rasberry
Sephiroth
Freya Crescent
Rikku
Yuna
Estinien Wyrmblood
Agrias Oaks

I think ours match other than Aerith/Jessie for Selphie/Ktjn, hmm.

Though there are certainly names on my top 10 I don't really believe can make it but man, I want to believe.

Selphiroth to top 5

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I should probably have two from VII but I don't want to pick between Yuna/Rikku, I want to believe they'll both make it

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Hmm dont think I have a real top 10 prediction. Feels like most characters have a good shot at it right now

i predict Ramza will make the top 10 next year. no idea this year except i'm pretty sure at least one each from VI, VII and X will make it. i know, bold claim right there.

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bold predix: someone's gonna win

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What if the finals are a literal tie?!?

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imo

Cecil Harvey
Ghido
Celes Chere
Kefka Palazzo
Aerith Gainsborough
Sephiroth
Selphie Tilmitt
Freya Crescent
Yuna
Ktjn

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@SockoressKnight do you have someone else you want to keep our trade going?

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Who I would most want in the top 10:

Galuf
Celes
Kefka
Locke
Barret
Jessie
Selphie
Rikku
Yuna
Lightning

Who will probably be in the top 10:

Cecil
Ghido
Celes
Kefka
Aerith
Sephiroth
Freya
Ktjn
Rikku
Estinien

ff6 hasn't had 2 characters in a top 10 since XVI

... with a couple contests in this timeframe failing to crack any in the top 15

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When was the last time FFV has had two in the top 10?

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um

well I'll let you know when that ever does happen

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Yeah nobody other than Faris and Gilgamesh and in separate contests...

if the finalist isn't Faris or Mesh, FF5 drops by the 20s... okay Bartz actually made it to 16th once in our first newSTATS contest (XIV) but that's it

there are two times FF5's snuck 2 into the Top 15 (neither case including Faris)

bump your question down to the Top 20 and you can add one more (not counting this contest)

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I figured that was the answer

Alright new goal for Team 5G

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X_Dante_X posted...

this is true, doomtrain proved you can survive with a literal deficit

i have no idea how me and ffd pulled that off. i credit ffd

This is still something I can't explain. It shouldn't have worked out but we kept getting away with it somehow.

There's no way I could pull something like that off these days with my schedule. I'm good for checking at least once an hour but getting on the minute is rough.

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OK time for official top 10 predictions!!! I will be going through each of the possibilities, and considering their chances...

CECIL
Peak: 1st (/40)
Last year: 7th
Status: ECC member
Cecil's last IV standing status should keep him around a while, but he doesn't have the obvious push to get to the top 10 like he did last year, and V being around could hurt him if there is indeed overlap between their fans. It's not impossible by any stretch, but I don't see him getting there this time.
Chance: 35%

GALUF
Peak: 15th (/70)
Last year: 55th
Status: Regular
Oh how fortunes can change on a whim in this contest! 50 days ago he was on the brink of (Ex)death, but now he's stronger than ever. Looks like it's finally time to get him on a deep run. There's a clear goal, a clear group behind him, and a clear overdue factor. Perhaps the safest bet for top 10, imo. Barring a lawyering, of course!
Chance: >95%

GHIDO
Peak: N/A
Last year: N/A
Status: Newbie
Bias? What's that? Ghido appeared to be on the edge around the 30 mark, but he's picking up support as the contest goes. Gilgamesh's exit and Galuf's strength definitely help him, and that might not last, but the turtle also has a casual appeal to those who haven't yet played V. I see no reason he cannot make it.
Chance: 50%

CELES
Peak: 1st (/50)
Last year: 15th
Status: ECC member
Hmm. If she outlasts Locke her chances shoot up, but she is looking to be the weakest of the remaining three VIs. I'd love to see her reach top 10 but I don't see her outpacing her love interest.
Chance: 20%

KEFKA
Peak: 2nd
Last year: 8th
Status: Regular
I know I know. "He's a champion-in-waiting!" "He's overdue!" "He'd be a natural follow-up to Lightning and Squall!" "It's his turn!" I just don't see it. I don't see the strength, I don't see the breadth of support at this stage, I don't see him getting there. If he outlasts Celes and Locke then that'll be a different story, but right now I foresee a clown seething with hatred.
Chance: 30%

LOCKE
Peak: 2nd
Last year: 20th
Status: ECC member
Currently he appears to be the strongest of the remaining VI crew. He has the overdue factor, everybody likes him, and he could cruise all the way to a very high finish. Potential winner? Sure. But he has to outlast his companions first, and Celes and Kefka are no slouches, so it's not a done deal.
Chance: 75%

AERITH
Peak: 7th
Last year: 14th (L)
Status: Regular
OK, VII is impossible to figure out. At least one of them will be making it, but who? Right now, I am betting on Aeris. She's got the overdue factor, she was taken too early last year, and she has immense casual appeal. Her problem, of course, is her three compatriots. Right now she is vulnerable, but if she outlasts Barret and Jessie I can see her landing a new personal best.
Chance: 65%

BARRET
Peak: 6th
Last year: 6th
Status: Regular
Could he do it? Yes. Will he? ...Eh. He is looking much healthier than he was 10 rounds ago, but there's not the same impetus for a deep run with Barret as there is with Aeris, he's coming off of his best run already. Again, if he outlasts her then it's a different story, but I think the girls are gonna take it this time.
Chance: 35%

JESSIE
Peak: 28th
Last year: 28th
Status: 2nd appearance
Now Jessie has the opposite problem. She stands out, she has dedicated savers, and before today she had been safe well before the others, but I don't think her appeal spreads nearly as wide. I believe she has a ceiling, but does she have enough support to get over the line into the top 10?? I really can't figure it out.
Chance: 50%

SEPHIROTH
Peak: 3rd
Last year: 80th
Status: ECC member
Sorry Martin, but I don't see it happening. I think Seph is more divisive than the other three, and isn't likely to pick up any savers from outside the existing group. I don't even know if he would boost from Aeris' or Barret's deaths like I think they would boost from each other. I can't write him off, but as the squeeze comes in on VII I have a hard time seeing him make it through the other side.
Chance: 25%

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SELPHIE
Peak: 3rd
Last appearance: 92nd
Status: Returner
I don't know what to do with Selphie. A few rounds ago I would say she has no chance, but outlasting Squall has given her new opportunities to move forward. Still, I don't see the momentum to get her to another top 5 run. There's been little sign of superstrength so far. Two of her backers are the superreliable Dante and pj. I see so many ways she could fall through the cracks, and yet there are 10 spots, and they have to be filled. Does she have the numbers? ...maybe.
Chance: 45%

BEATRIX
Peak: 6 (/55)
Last year: 24th
Status: Regular
Tricksy Beatrix is living up to her name. She was once living off of FBike NRs, could possibly benefit from Dagger's exit, and she doesn't appear to be in immediate danger, but... I don't see her gaining another 10 places. Not with Freya around. I'm keeping an eye on her (and FBike), but the odds aren't in her favour.
Chance: 15%

FREYA
Peak: 3 (/70)
Last year: 45th
Status: Never been booted
Don't sleep on Freya. She has a wide variety of backers and that's not even accounting for Dagger's exit. She has strength but isn't a face people are bored of seeing at the top. I can see her having a run much like Dagger's last year, potentially further... I don't really see a way she can fall before the top 10. Again, barring a lawyering.
Chance: 85%

RIKKU
Peak: 3rd (/102!)
Last year: 68th
Status: ECC member
Rikku or Yuna, Yuna or Rikku... Can they both make it? That's what I'm betting on, but I don't feel good about it. I think that Rikku is indirectly stronger than Yuna, but when it comes down to it the X backers will prioritise Yuna over her. Yuna just feels more like champion material, to me at least. But there are 10 spaces to fill, and she certainly has the strength to get there.
Chance: 60%

YUNA
Peak: 5th
Last appearance: 95th
Status: Returner
Yuna has the narrative, she has the casual appeal, she is widely liked by all non-visos. But she hasn't had a super easy ride of it so far. Does she really have the strength, or the number of backers necessary to push through the grueling teens? I'm not sure. At least one of the X girls will make the top 10, and for lack of other options I'm saying both will, but don't be surprised if there's an early exit in the cards.
Chance: 65%

KTJN
Peak: N/A
Last year: N/A
Status: Newbie
Ktjn is Ktjn. She's not getting new supporters, but her base is so wide it's hard to see her falling this early. But really, where is her peak? I am not one of the believers who think she can go all the way, her appeal is too narrow and unlikely to widen. But she should be fine getting to this point, based off of the number of people maining her.
Chance: 80%

LIGHTNING
Peak: 1st
Last year: 32nd
Status: Never been booted
Look, is it possible that someone scraping through to this stage could build momentum and ride it to the top 10? Yes. Will that happen to the #1 stats queen who won only two years ago? ...no. Sorry swordz.
Chance: <5%

ESTINIEN
Peak: 46th
Last year: 46th
Status: 3rd appearance
I know nothing about this guy. He's been in no trouble since his XIV compatriots dropped, and he doesn't look to be in any trouble soon. But he'll need more support as the contest goes on, and does he have enough to make it? The obvious comparison here is Emet and his 12th place run last year. Is XIV strong enough now to boost someone over the next hurdle? I'm gonna bet, yes!
Chance: 70%

IGNIS
Peak: 95th
Last appearance: 95th
Status: Returner, 2nd appearance
Ignis hasn't sensed a whiff of danger since becoming Last XV standing. But XV has historically done very poorly in this contest, and I think his peak may be approaching soon. If Estinien is this year's Emet, I think Ignis may be this year's Cid R- strolling along without much trouble until he suddenly reaches his limit and is tossed immediately.
Chance: 20%

AGRIAS
Peak: 15th
Last year: 72nd
Status: Regular
I don't feel like Agrias is very strong on her own, but the power of Last Tactics Standing is clearly nothing to sniff at. I don't see her getting close to Delita's run last year, but I believe she will have enough to land around the middle of the remaining pack. I'll bet on the higher end, for now. But I don't feel good about it.
Chance: 55%

Can't wait to go 0 for 10

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I agree with most of what you said, but I feel like you overrate Freya quite a bit
You actually claim she is going to the finale which is..kinda too much I think?


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No need to apologize. I would put her chance of making top 10 at 0% this year. Im just glad she made top 20 since she never really picked up priority savers.

I have faith that Ktjn can gain new support. Anybody can be the one to make it happen.

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I hope Yuna and Rikku can both make it but rule changes start getting crazy soon. I think it goes up every day starting top 15? It's gonna get tense!

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andylt posted...

I think Seph is more divisive than the other three, and isn't likely to pick up any savers from outside the existing group.

In the past week he picked up charon, Gen, Lopen and (soon to be) pj saves from eliminated X, T and VIII characters. Broad appeal!!

.....granted you're right as it's probably the ceiling but who knows. Forget WarThaNemesis, where's ExThaNemesis, I feel like I've seen him posting a bunch about Sephiroth in Smash...

Just so many unknowns, always comes down to who shows up. The key number to remember is 13 saves on Day 90 to make the top 10. For Sephiroth I can only count 12 saves in an absolute-best-case-scenario. Of course that assumes everybody showing up and trading where they may not be presently trading, but maybe there's another one or two saves out there between now and then. Otherwise, well, all I need to do is drop all my Sephiroth memes before he's out, that's all. Damn, just realized I forgot to post my Tifa vid when she was eliminated.

Anyways: good assessments, good detail. When we hit the end of Day 85 and it's the 3rd annual "Top 15 preference rankings" time, do you want to take that on?

GARNET "DAGGER" TIL ALEXANDROS XVII

CII - 13/45
CIII - 31/50
CIV - 17/55
CV - 41/60
CVI - 34/65
CVII - 11/70
CVIII - 4/75
CIX - 3/75
CX - 23/75
CXI - 17/75
CXII - 26/75
CXIII - 18/75
CXIV - 52/102
CXV - 51/100
CXVI - 27/100
CXVII - 30/100
CXVIII - 28/100
CXIX - 71/100
CXX - 16/100
CXXI - 15/100
CXXII - 3/100
CXXIII - 21/100

overall STATS: 69.83% / up 0.49% - 14th/128 (no movement)
newSTATS: 69.70% / up 1.14% - 16th/106 (up 2)
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Good round guys

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I probably wouldn't even act to snipe if a round comes down to Seph v Light

... then again I save seph anyways so there's only one way I would be able to end such a tiebreak

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I do love how I keep sticking you with your most despised characters to save, lol

Cissnei > Sephiroth > Tifa?

Cissnei >>>> Tifa >> Sephiroth

I feel bad about Tifa a bit now since I would've gotten use out of her in Omnia, but Aphmau's LD coming early with Vivi has resulted in losing the Aphmau+Tifa banner that would've happened in October instead, sorry!

getting trades out of the people least likely to ever save that character is definitely the best strat tho

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Is Aphmau another Type 0 character?
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XI

Only know that from Record Keeper but yeah, XI

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We've got top 10 predix from VI, Roba, cap, Martin, Nanis and swordz. Anyone else?

Also here's mine
Galuf
Ghido
Locke
Aeris
Freya
Rikku
Yuna
Ktjn
Estinien
Agrias

...looking at that list makes it feel much less likely! Could swap out Agrias or Ghido for Jessie or Selphie... nah I'll leave it.

MartinFF7 posted...

Anyways: good assessments, good detail. When we hit the end of Day 85 and it's the 3rd annual "Top 15 preference rankings" time, do you want to take that on? I wasn't planning to do it but maybe would otherwise if only to keep the tradition alive one more year.

Oh I may well be wrong about Seph, VII is just impossible to figure out. Thanks though!

Uh I remember you had some system for determining whose lists were closest to each other etc for the top 15 thing, I don't know if I could do that. I do think it's worth doing, but if you're not feeling like it then fair enough. We've got a few days to think on it anyway!

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