Board 8 > Coronavirus Topic 13: Back to Normal: The Finale: Take 1

(+) Yeah! (+)

Seanchan posted...

I have a sinking feeling that COVID is basically here to stay and will end up being like the seasonal flu, as it continues to mutate and those strains are less effected by the vaccines we develop.

That was pretty much always basically what was expected to happen. Though we feel these vaccines will be more effective than the flu ones due to the spike protein.

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We're actually very effective at distributing a seasonal flu vaccine.

Seasonal COVID vaccine is basically 100% going to be a thing. Especially with the globalization of the virus.

We should probably expect mask wearing to become more commonplace during the winter months in order to make our new normal with covid and the flu to be more on par with previous flu seasons.

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Seanchan posted...

I have a sinking feeling that COVID is basically here to stay and will end up being like the seasonal flu, as it continues to mutate and those strains are less effected by the vaccines we develop.

It will be, though I think that prior exposure/vaccination to old strains should probably still reduce the lethality of future mutations. So we will eventually get back to normal-ish, but theres a good chance that well need to get yearly vaccines updated for new mutations.

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I'm not totally convinced that COVID is here forever. Yes we have several identified variants right now but only a couple of them have shown any evasion of antibody neutralization. And none of them have evaded them completely. On top of that you have memory T and B cells which could further protect people from the severity and you still have a general reduction of viral loads, and therefore lower reproduction numbers, caused by these other actors of the adaptive immune system.

On top of this, it doesn't mutate nearly as easily as influenza does. We've seen these variants but those variants exist because of the sheer number of people infected at a given time versus what exists in a typical season for influenza. I firmly believe that with some vigilance and a period of a few waves of vaccinations, it may be eradicated after a decade. That's still a decent length of time, but it isn't forever.

On the issue of mask wearing, I expect medical facilities will keep the policies around. It's honestly not a bad idea even if you were just protecting against the flu. Maybe also with public transportation as well during the winter. But for the rest of the general public? I doubt they'll return even in the winter unless we draw some massively unlucky card with a new mutation somewhere down the road.

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Esuriat posted...

I'm not totally convinced that COVID is here forever. Yes we have several identified variants right now but only a couple of them have shown any evasion of antibody neutralization. And none of them have evaded them completely. On top of that you have memory T and B cells which could further protect people from the severity and you still have a general reduction of viral loads, and therefore lower reproduction numbers, caused by these other actors of the adaptive immune system.

On top of this, it doesn't mutate nearly as easily as influenza does. We've seen these variants but those variants exist because of the sheer number of people infected at a given time versus what exists in a typical season for influenza. I firmly believe that with some vigilance and a period of a few waves of vaccinations, it may be eradicated after a decade. That's still a decent length of time, but it isn't forever.

On the issue of mask wearing, I expect medical facilities will keep the policies around. It's honestly not a bad idea even if you were just protecting against the flu. Maybe also with public transportation as well during the winter. But for the rest of the general public? I doubt they'll return even in the winter unless we draw some massively unlucky card with a new mutation somewhere down the road.

Well I think it's certain to be here forever in the sense that it is almost certainly not going to be eradicated (a feat I believe we've only accomplished with smallpox?). I do think it's possible (likely, even) that it will become much less problematic for society over time (which I believe is what happened for things like the 1918 flu? It certainly didn't go extinct) due to the partial immunity I mentioned in my last post from having had/been vaccinated against any of its ancestors.

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Yeah, I'm not exactly sure how or why the 1918 flu died down the way it did, though there's likely a similarity reflected in the declining numbers we're seeing from COVID right now.

It didn't hit a level of herd immunity like you'd expect would be needed for its level transmissibility (R0 of 2-3). It only got halfway there at around 30-35% infected worldwide. And a flu vaccine hadn't been created yet. But what you did have is that on top of people who got sick and recovered and became immune, social controls were in place. People wore masks. Behaviors shifted for a time, heading into April of 1920. And I believe what happened was that it was just enough to take the R0 below 1 for long enough that it mutated into a form that was more transmissible, but coincided with lower lethality. Flu's genetic volatility allowed it to escape like this with an ever decreasing number of active infections.

SARS-CoV-2 doesn't really have that level of constraint. It spreads far more easily in warm, humid weather than flu does. But again, its genetically far more stable than flu is. The variant problem in the future won't be nearly as bad as it seems now as long as the effort to track its genetic drift remains strong and vaccinations are applied to defend against them as soon as possible.

I guess what I'm saying is that it will take a concerted vaccination and monitoring campaign to actually eradicate it. But I certainly think it's possible. I think the biggest threat to this is the potential for a very similar coronavirus jumping back out from an animal reservoir, maybe akin to whatever the original source was for SARS-CoV-2.

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Corrik7 posted...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9274907/Now-scientists-spot-variant-Finland-detects-new-strain.html

the daily mail? really?

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

the daily mail? really?

What? If you have an issue, use google and find a source you find more appropriate. It's not exactly not widely reported.

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there's a reason we make fun of full throttle for linking to the daily mail in his topics. garbage source.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

there's a reason we make fun of full throttle for linking to the daily mail in his topics. garbage source.

I don't care if you want to cry baby. You can spend less time using your fingers to google a different source than the time you are taking to type your whining about the source.

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And guess what. I still don't care about your cry babying.

*Yawn*

Anyways... Back to the topic.

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I'm a piece of shit because you can't use google. Okay.

Here let me google it for you.

https://googlethatforyou.com?q=finland%20covid%20variant

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Corrik7 posted...

I'm a piece of shit because you can't use google.

no asshole, you're a piece of shit because you keep insulting me for absolutely no fucking reason.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

no asshole, you're a piece of shit because you keep insulting me for absolutely no fucking reason.

Nobody called you any names. I stated you are crybabying. It's a depiction of the behavior you are displaying. I highly doubt you have never said someone was whining or such before. It is no different. Insulting someone is actually what you did.

Okay. Anyways...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/summer-school-coronavirus-biden/2021/02/18/3dd15576-7220-11eb-85fa-e0ccb3660358_story.html

School's out for summer... Maybe not?

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Corrik7 posted...

Nobody called you any names. I stated you are crybabying.

oh yeah, that's a super nice thing to say that's not insulting in the least.

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This is so stupid

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

oh yeah, that's a super nice thing to say that's not insulting in the least.

Nobody made you whine about a source. Don't do silly things and get upset when someone points out they are silly. Get over yourself. Now hush.

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Nanis23 posted...

This is so stupid

Yeah, I'd lose my shit if I were a kid and they wanted me to go to school all summer! Lol

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Lasa wants to get an actual suspension this time instead of a warn. Ulti is gonna have a ball marking these messages. Silly, Lasa. Never knows how to be normal. Worst part is he says he is a regular shit talker in real life like me and yet he can't handle himself when someone says he is crybabying and whining. Some real thin skin there for a shit talker lol.

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i think you're confusing "having thin skin" with "not wanting to be a doormat."

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

i think you're confusing "having thin skin" with "being a doormat."

Getting yourself moderated to prove you aren't a doormat. Okee dokee! That's a new one! You could call me any name in the book, bruh. It doesn't mean anything to me. The only thing you are proving is that you can't handle yourself when someone appropriately calls out your crybabying for crybabying and now are throwing a tantrum getting yourself moderated over it. *Shrug*

Showed me for sure! Lol

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shut the fuck up

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Lasa's right in that the Daily Mail is a garbage source and you should feel bad Corrik but also: yikes. chill out dude.

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i'm not going to chill out when someone is acting like an absolute fucking asshole to me, thank you very much.

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colliding posted...

Lasa's right in that the Daily Mail is a garbage source and you should feel bad Corrik but also: yikes. chill out dude.

= (

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oh look, corrik doesn't accuse colliding of being a "crybaby" and a "whiner," even though he's saying the exact same fucking shit as me.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

oh look, corrik doesn't accuse colliding of being a "crybaby" and a "whiner," even though he's saying the exact same fucking shit as me.

I made fun of his saying I should feel bad by making a sad face. Lol. You are tweaking, bro.

Also, I didn't call you a crybaby or a whiner. I said you are crybabying and whining. There is a difference. The former means that's just who you are and how you always act. The latter means you are doing it right now and need to cut that shit before you become the former! Lol.

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Daily mail is a rag and pretty trashy but they also do tend to get a lot right, even within articles they get some facts wrong. Basically, they're what rags ought to be: largely correct on a ton of issues but with issues in the details.

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Logged out to see what the fuss was about...and now I remember why I ignored Lasa

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lol

"lasa defended himself from getting insulted over saying something completely reasonable! what an asshole! glad i ignored that guy."

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Daily Mail's distortions and intentional omissions of information in their writing is enough to justify throwing the whole thing in the bin. If they report on something it can be an indication to verify elsewhere, but I'm not about to handwave the details which are... important in actually qualifying the nature of what's factual.

But whatever, at least it wasn't like Sputnik.

Also I've noticed business media groups, for whatever reason, have been among the most click-baity sources out there through the pandemic. CNBC, Financial Times and Bloomberg have been awful.

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VintageGin posted...

Logged out to see what the fuss was about...and now I remember why I ignored Lasa

*Shrug*. He is a goofball at times, but he is our goofball.

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Aww yeah, got my first dose. My partner was supposed to get his second dose today too, but the Moderna shipment was delayed due to Texas weather. He's rescheduled for next week.

The wait was almost non-existent, which surprised me. I think the Moderna delay probably helped with that, since all Moderna second doses would've been turned away, so less people in line. But even then, it was still so fast. I take this as a sign that it's probably about time for Nevada to move on to the next phase of people.

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https://youtu.be/-M3L_Kykl6w

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https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Excess_mortality_-_statistics

https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-biontech-impfstoff-stoppt-virus-uebertragung-zu-89-4-prozent-a-f02ef45b-00b2-412d-b2ad-260ad8d2ddca

Also Pfizer will update guidelines that their vaccine can be safely be stored 2 weeks at the same temperatures as Moderna.

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English article on that:

https://twitter.com/scottlincicome/status/1363485667083366404

Great news

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https://www.cp24.com/mobile/news/usa-now-vaccinating-more-people-against-covid-19-in-one-day-than-canada-has-in-total-1.5317891

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Yeah most of the world still blows at getting their vaccines out.

Mind you, I'm not sure its so much that and simply that the US Dollar is more reliable and people want our money first.

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Japan just started vaccinations last week with 20,000 health workers and 20,000 volunteers to study side effects or whatever. The rest of the health care workers will get it next month, the elderly in April, and people with underlying conditions in May/June. So I'm looking at July at best lol

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It also doesn't help that Canada can't manufacture the vaccine as we don't have the capacity to do so.

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I wonder what Trudeau has been doing the last 12 months in order to secure enough vaccine

Kureejii Lea posted...

I wonder what Trudeau has been doing the last 12 months in order to secure enough vaccine

Buying enough vaccines to potentially vaccinate the entire population 5-10 times over (essentially hedging their bets to make sure they have enough even if a bunch of vaccines flop).

We also have contract deadlines for Pfizer and Moderna for end of March, June and September, at which point there will be enough for everyone even if nothing else gets approved (assuming they honor the contract). From the looks of it instead of sending us a steady stream of vaccines they are going to dump everything over the next six weeks.

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What about the fact that we need 80%~ for herd immunity and the last poll i saw shows roughly 50% of Canadians dont want the vaccine...

Kureejii Lea posted...

What about the fact that we need 80%~ for herd immunity and the last poll i saw shows roughly 50% of Canadians dont want the vaccine...

According to this poll the ~50% is for people wanting to take the vaccine right away. ~30% more are going to take it eventually so that'll get us to 80%.

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/more-canadians-than-ever-willing-to-receive-the-covid-19-vaccine-angus-reid-poll-1.5230633

Not sure what you want the government to do other than rounding up anti-vaxers and forcing them to get the vaccine.

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charmander6000 posted...

According to this poll the ~50% is for people wanting to take the vaccine right away. ~30% more are going to take it eventually so that'll get us to 80%.

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/more-canadians-than-ever-willing-to-receive-the-covid-19-vaccine-angus-reid-poll-1.5230633

Not sure what you want the government to do other than rounding up anti-vaxers and forcing them to get the vaccine.

you absolutely can not force people to get a vaccine. Im not antivax at all but forcing this on people is absolutely not the answer either

i feel like we are going to come to a roadblock where we dont have enough for herd immunity and the timeline of the initial vaccines is already wearing off anyways

It's more likely there will be a yearly coronavirus vaccine, similar to the flu shot than for us to fully eradicate it.

Perhaps it won't be every year, it depends how quickly the virus mutates/how long we remain immune.

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Companies could make vaccination a condition to do certain activities (e.g. going to a concert, dining in person at a restaurant) or employers could make it a condition of employment which would get most hesitant people get it (and they should once were demand-limited). This is already whats done to make kids get their vaccines before attending school.

I also dont think that the government mandating the vaccine would be at all unacceptable. If you can get to herd immunity without doing so it would probably be better not to (and I think we probably can), but if at the end of the day not enough people will get it their unfounded fears should not be prioritized over other peoples lives.

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It looks like the curve is flattening out at around numbers we saw in early november/late october.

Some of it is masked due to delays caused by weather, but it also shows our decreasing trend in cases has likely slowed significantly regardless.

All while most of the country prematurely talks of major reopenings. With vaccinations about to hit a major ramp up(Increased supply of current vaccines and J&J about to launch), I really wish we'd show just a little more patience.

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Numbers will drop naturally with weather as well.

Oh you pointed that out alrdy

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https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/31003626/study-shows-less-1-pro-athletes-infected-covid-19-developed-inflammatory-heart-disease

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