Board 8 > Stock Topic 13

(+) Yeah! (+)

How about you stop putting money in PLTR until you can put an estimate on their value that's based on something that isn't exclusively their graph

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Well there is such a thing called speculative stocks, the problem is I am attracted to them like a moth to a flame

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There's speculation, and then there's gambling on games of pure chance, and then there's betting on games of skill when you are less skilled than your opponent. You can make money with good speculation. Gambling on games of pure chance would be random if not for the vigorish that's almost always charged and makes it negative expectation.

But betting on games of skill where you are less skilled than your opponent - that's a really good way to lose money. If you are betting on stocks where you know less than others, that's effectively what you are doing. It's like playing poker where you don't look at your cards and the other players do. You could get lucky and win sometimes but the information disadvantage against you is huge and you will usually lose.

I did that to some degree with LAZR this past week and it was an expensive reminder. My theory was that self-driving cars are going to be a huge sector in a few years, and I still think that theory is probably right, but the problem was that that doesn't necessarily imply that buying LAZR at $33 was a good idea.

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You say you're speculating on something but you're not sure what you're speculating on. The thing about speculation is you have to have some basis for it other than "it will go up." Like you can't even tell me what PLTR even does. It's not speculation.

Like TRVN is something I consider a "speculative" stock of mine, but my speculation is based on at least some sort of figure-- basically just by assigning a short term revenue boost given by way of OLINVYK based on what Trevena considers the conservative userbase of the morphine replacing drug (and using the milestone payments they're getting from their boys in China as some sort of grounding for that) which leads to a Market Cap of around $1 billion, which is roughly a tripling of the current stock price within a year if they get some traction of OLINVYK being used. I then have further upside as a bit of a hedge with their other pipeline items which may or may not pan out.

I mean, it's still very speculative, but it's based off at least something.

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If you want another speculative stock I'm in that I know way less about than TRVN.

FUBO

It's a tv streaming platform with a growing userbase that is going to integrate some form of sports betting soon, and they have like a few hundred thousand users that's grown from last year. Do I know a ton about it? No. But I figure there's a market for a tv streaming service particularly one that offers sports betting in it and they have a basic foothold on what they're doing, even if they are running a loss right now there's potential there. I didn't do a ton of DD or anything it took me maybe like 15 minutes of searching on them to learn this.

I've made a solid 2k or on em so far and have cashed a lot of it out but am still in it because I feel like it's a unique service with a huge potential profit margin.

Does that mean FUBO is a better investment than PLTR? No. But it means if FUBO falls back to $16 (where I got in) I will have the willpower to not sell it, which is probably more than you can say about PLTR.

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Yeah, worst thing you can do is to get shaken out and sell at the bottom after buying at the top.

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So I've become very curious - why are you attracted to NKLA? PLTR, I can see. NKLA I don't get.

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Think I'm going in hard on some psychedelic stocks over the next couple of days now that they're being used for cancer patients, addiction, and the like. Might as well invest in something I believe in.

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Things came roaring back today (ABNB, AI, SPCE, LAZR, and VLDR). About time! Hopefully they don't implode before the end of the day like they've been doing recently.

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Stimulus probably happens today. Signed by friday? Maybe

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Lopen's Negative Nancy pick of the week

Solar Winds

As someone who works in IT I can't imagine anyone wanting to stick with their products if they can avoid it after the big hack. And they likely can as it's a rapidly developing field and they don't really offer a lot of truly unique solutions and they've already got a massive P/E ratio that is depending on growth but I don't see a lot of growth potential in this company. They were compromised in a way that their literal program updates were loaded with malware. To me this is much worse than a bug. How can you trust a company when the update itself is going to infect your computer. And since they got stuff in the White House you can bet we're going to get a ton of details and coverage on this.

People are "buying the dip" right now and it's up around 3% on the day but I don't think that's going to end well.

I loaded up on about $1000 worth of $12.5 puts that expire in May. I expect the company to be sub $10 by then. Two earnings reports with their client base shriveling up and more news and lawsuits pouring out. We'll see though!

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I need a tip on what to buy today or tomorrow.

Oh, the wash sale rule applies not only to stocks bought again within 30 days of selling for a loss but also to other shares of the same stock purchased up to 30 days before the sale. That explains why I keep seeing losses not getting realized for tax purposes.

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Lopen posted...

Lopen's Negative Nancy pick of the week

Solar Winds

As someone who works in IT I can't imagine anyone wanting to stick with their products if they can avoid it after the big hack. And they likely can as it's a rapidly developing field and they don't really offer a lot of truly unique solutions and they've already got a massive P/E ratio that is depending on growth but I don't see a lot of growth potential in this company. They were compromised in a way that their literal program updates were loaded with malware. To me this is much worse than a bug. How can you trust a company when the update itself is going to infect your computer. And since they got stuff in the White House you can bet we're going to get a ton of details and coverage on this.

People are "buying the dip" right now and it's up around 3% on the day but I don't think that's going to end well.

I loaded up on about $1000 worth of $12.5 puts that expire in May. I expect the company to be sub $10 by then. Two earnings reports with their client base shriveling up and more news and lawsuits pouring out. We'll see though!

What does Solar Winds do? Based on their name, I would think solar and wind energy, but based on the post it doesn't sound like it.

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red sox 777 posted...

Oh, the wash sale rule applies not only to stocks bought again within 30 days of selling for a loss but also to other shares of the same stock purchased up to 30 days before the sale. That explains why I keep seeing losses not getting realized for tax purposes.

yeah, I completely forgot about that a month or two ago, ruined some of my plans.

But I suppose as long as you're completely out of the security, you eventually get the loss? Curious to see how my 1099 will looks. I'm predicting 50 pages.

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What is the wash rule?

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Menji posted...

yeah, I completely forgot about that a month or two ago, ruined some of my plans.

But I suppose as long as you're completely out of the security, you eventually get the loss? Curious to see how my 1099 will looks. I'm predicting 50 pages.

it's a good problem to have

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So solarwinds does general IT stuff. Mostly network management applications to make IT's job easier. Things like rolling out program updates to your entire network. We've been contacted by the company to sell us stuff to sell our clients but the price point and need was never quite there. A big thing we've looked into them for as an example of something specific was analyzing network traffic to find people who were running torrent software.

They're pretty generalized though I can't actually tell you all the products they offer nor do I feel it's necessary DD to know that. Network security is paramount over network convenience so as someone in IT I would never consider buying anything from them again given the nature of the exploit coming from a software update. Like all their software that I've seen has a lot of competition and can be achieved by other means (ie not using software to do it but rather functions on windows active directory/group policy, batch files, make files or whatever else) or products (lot of other options for the things they offer if you look around), so it's a particularly hard sell to put your company at risk by using their software and I don't see any way of making good making that stigma go away. The brand is kinda poisoned and I expect everyone to know that soon given the high profile targets of the hack.

The big thing is they've got a headstart on a lot of their peers, but IT management software as a service is a huge field that's rapidly developing.

But yeah only way I see it going up long term is if we get news that says what we know is wrong. This is imo as bad as the Luckin Scandal unless we get some news that the hack occurred through some other means. I see it more likely that we get more bad news though. Word of mouth should erode its market share pretty heavily in the short term

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Side note pretty sure the main reason their stock has increased a lot in the past year is covid tech bubble (since it has a lot of remote network management tools) and so there should naturally get some pullback when the vaccine rolls out if you believe stuff like zoom is going to go back down even in the absence of bad news

But yeah not selling it too hard you do you options are inherently risky-- just like posting my picks

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every time i say how to make money people people dont listen to me

besides coolcly

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though tbqh im not sharing my actual positions because degenerate """lurkers""" are gonna steal MY ideas

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It behooves you to have others in the same stock as you! Dont be a moocher!

Wash rule is when you intentionally take a loss in order to offset taxes.

So in order for the rule to apply, you are not allowed to rebuy the stock you sold for a loss for 30 days?

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aapl 130c 12/24
nchl 26.5 12/24 <---- risky one, but if you bought right now you'd be fine

i think amd 100c is strong too, but i'd date that further out, and do this a month ago when i said amd 01/2021 100c sounded smart while it traded in high 80s or whatever lol

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id honestly be flabbergasted if apple doesnt kick down 130 by christmas eve. most obvious thing ever to me

i hope im not wrong, but you know, you know.

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Also quad witching is this friday which means volume is going to be going up

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gravy is a prophet and i come everyday in supplication hoping to hear what small wisdom he is willing to dispense

i will qualify that by saying iv never bought a stock just because he said it was good, i do my own due diligence and make my own judgement calls. i just come here for ideas. his ideas just tend to pass my due diligence and align with my investing strategy.

(lopen says interesting things but we are so unaligned on goals that we are playing completely different games).

The rest of you belong on r/wallstreetbets

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Literally anyone can make money with any stock that isnt a meme stock, if you hold long enough. And if it is a meme stock, you go from 100% chance of gains to 50% chance of gains.

A lot of my posts are Wallstreet bets I just bet on current events not graphs

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Also biggest sign this stock market stuff has gone too far

I filled up my gas today and was like "hell yeah gas is more expensive!"

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Haha. I am actually happy when there are red days. Which is a faux sign because it means my 401(k) is taking a hit.

Gonna be another beautiful 1% day eventually I bet

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Doordash looking enticing.

Especially with Airbnbs resurgence.

AirBNB higher now than when it opened. Glad I bought in for more when it dipped!

In "missed the boat" news, LK agreed to pay a penalty of $180 million with the SEC today to settle claims from the fraud. The stock is up 40%.

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I bought Salesforce. Sturdy stock.

How does one buy Polish stocks


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There's an OTC one available on Vanguard. OTGLY, not sure if it's the same thing.

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Finally sold my LKNCY shares. There's speculation it'll go up to $20, so I could have waited even longer

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Solarwinds finally breaking down. Market maker games expiring today sends the stock spinning down. Liking my $12.5 puts.

And I think $10 is a good place to sell LK. It will go higher but $10 feels like the fair value to me. Think you risk bagholding at too much higher

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Huh

Solarwinds already down to 14.40

I should have been more aggressive with my puts lol

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Jesus fuck this is a fallen knife that reminds me of March, poor Solar Winds lmao

Honestly I have no idea how it affects them finanencly... does it mean companies will no longer trust them after that breach?

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Solarwinds could legit go bankrupt in 6 months. The bleeding will slow down from here I figure but next earnings should be ugly. I can't imagine any high profile clients keeping them and I believe they have some debt issues they're leveraging

Like you just don't want a software that has access to your whole network being compromised from within its own update framework. Trust is so important. It outweighs any convenience provided by the software. I also don't THINK solarwinds offers anything truly unique, just sorta does everything in a more convenient user friendly package than alternatives

Like imagine if Zoom put out an update that caused 10% of meetings to be intercepted by attackers

Would you ever use Zoom if you worked in any big business when you could just use I don't know Microsoft Teams or Skype or one of countless other alternatives.

Like this is worse than LK, so ultimately I expect it to drop further than LK did. It started at $23 so if it loses like 80% of its value you're looking at around $5. That's why I have some $7.5 puts too.

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It's worse than LK from a business point of view. It's not as bad from the point of view of, "is the management just taking all the money invested by shareholders and funneling it to themselves?" That's why LK was valued for a while at literally less than the cash they raised from shareholders - people were afraid the money was already gone, paid to the founders, and impossible to recover in China or the Cayman Islands or wherever LK is based.

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Went the wrong way today

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I guess to me you still had a lot more speculation on luckin. It was only known that the books were misreported. To what extent that was the case was not really known. They could be less profitable and still me a profitable business model it could also come down to one or two people and ousting them resolves it. With solarwinds I just don't feel anyone will buy it anymore and it was a growth stock to begin with.

Like it may not end up going down as much as luckin but if it doesn't I would put it to people not understanding the product and its potential Market (or racism haha)

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That's why I think LK was a good bet, albeit risky. Yes, there was some chance the company insiders were much bigger fraudsters than just what we knew about the books being off, but if that's not the case, it was way way undervalued. I like buying dips but I'm not touching Solarwinds.

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Futures looking like a bloodbath today. As they say, buy the rumor, sell the news. Congress finally reaches a deal and the market plunges.

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I think a lot of this bloodbath is because of the UK having a one two of bad news with reentering lockdown and brexit being at a standstill and a lot of the trading taking place this early in the morning being from over there.

Needless to say as someone very deep in short term calls on British goods I do not like this development but I sold enough profits that I'm okay. Just erased a lot of my green.

Relatively short term calls on anything that dived that benefits from the stimulus seem like they could be lucrative if timed properly when the market bottoms today-- this will get worse when markets open cause of the drop causing fear but I think there's a bit more to it than selling the news here. Just my thought anyway.

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Well this don't look good

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