Board 8 > Warner Bros. 2021 films will debut on HBO Max along with theaters

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://variety.com/2020/film/news/warner-bros-hbo-max-theaters-dune-matrix-4-1234845342/

Oh snap. I might just keep HBO Max for this instead of merely for Whose Line is it Anyway reruns.

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AMC stock went into freefall the minute this news dropped. Theaters aren't looking too hot right now.

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RIP theaters

I really don't know how they recover from this, especially since I'm sure others will follow suit.

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I don't think this will kill theaters immediately. It's just going to make them a more specialized market. This might eventually lead to their irrelevancy in the future but I think people like the movies enough to not completely abandon them. They probably need some sort of governmental bailout though.

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Theatres will have to downscale but they'll stick around. Just not be as ubiquitous as they were before.

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does this mean they can make HBO Max actually usable

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The issue is that there's almost no tentpole non-superhero movies anymore. There's no point in going to see a comedy or drama in theaters when the theater-experience adds nothing.

And if the superhero fad loses steam, then theaters REALLY have no future.

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rest in shit overpriced awful unclean theaters

it does suck that's less jobs permanently for basically all of america

small theater chains will be nice but probably super uncommon in a couple decades

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Warner_Bros._films_(2020%E2%80%932029)

Interesting to look at what this might entail. Some films that caught my eye:

Mortal Kombat
Godzilla vs. Kong
In the Heights
Space Jam: A New Legacy
The Suicide Squad
Dune
The Matrix 4

I mean, I probably wouldn't go out of my way to watch all of these in theaters unless I was invited or really bored, but I'd definitely take the time to check them out because they were streaming.

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ZenOfThunder posted...

rest in shit overpriced awful unclean theaters

it does suck that's less jobs permanently for basically all of america

small theater chains will be nice but probably super uncommon in a couple decades

not how jobs work

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Do streaming services really make enough money to fund all the big-budget movies that get made these days? Releasing big movies on streaming for now because of the pandemic makes some sense, but I don't think giving up box office revenue forever with no replacement is a viable business strategy.
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Xeybozn posted...

Do streaming services really make enough money to fund all the big-budget movies that get made these days? Releasing big movies on streaming for now because of the pandemic makes some sense, but I don't think giving up box office revenue forever with no replacement is a viable business strategy.

This actually makes more sense if we consider that all streaming subscription services seem to be raising their prices now, like Netflix and Hulu.

I feel like they may be doing this to prepare for compensation for this.

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Xeybozn posted...

Do streaming services really make enough money to fund all the big-budget movies that get made these days? Releasing big movies on streaming for now because of the pandemic makes some sense, but I don't think giving up box office revenue forever with no replacement is a viable business strategy.

That was my thought too. They're eliminating a major revenue stream and I wonder if streaming will make up for it when you have budgets of $200m or more.

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AAA movie budgets are hilariously inflated to begin with. Actors will have to take pay cuts and they'll have less excess spending.

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thanks bartz for explaining how jobs work in america, very thoughtful, consider teaching as a future profession

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bryans7 posted...

That was my thought too. They're eliminating a major revenue stream and I wonder if streaming will make up for it when you have budgets of $200m or more.

Maybe if theater revenue is a lot smaller proportion of their returns they won't be dumping hundreds of millions more in advertising. After all they have a captive audience on the streaming service itself and while I get ads for streaming shows all the time, there's nothing near the marketing blitz of a superhero movie.

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longterm we're probably gonna see a pivot to narrative longform storytelling, lots of new tv shows and mini-series. imagine if those Disney+ Marvel shows do well and become the new standard

previous posts about salary cuts for actors are very true and theyll probably look to the steadier income of doing series work instead of small paychecks for just a single movie

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ZenOfThunder posted...

thanks bartz for explaining how jobs work in america, very thoughtful, consider teaching as a future profession

I shouldn't have to. we weren't lamenting the loss of jobs when the arcade fad died. People will spend their money somewhere else.

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KamikazePotato posted...

AAA movie budgets are hilariously inflated to begin with. Actors will have to take pay cuts and they'll have less excess spending.

Most of the cost of movies comes from marketing in the cases we're talking about here, though. I can't say anything for certain but I wonder what impact having dedicated space on a streaming platform's home screen will have on the necessity to double a film's budget to plaster busses, billboards and the like.

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I mean, I see tons of "in person" advertising for television and video games as well, so I don't know that this would eliminate that much of the marketing costs.

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Big movies will still need plenty of advertising even if they're streaming only. If nothing else, it'd be needed to attract viewers who aren't already subscribers. Besides, relying solely on promotion within a platform won't work unless most of the promoted films are worth watching; otherwise most viewers will stop giving promoted stuff a try unless they have other reasons to think it's good..
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Funny because I've seen more movies in the Theater over the past 2 months then the past 2 years.

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Yesmar_ posted...

I mean, I see tons of "in person" advertising for television and video games as well, so I don't know that this would eliminate that much of the marketing costs.

Of course they won't eliminate it entirely but do you seriously see as much for single video games and TV shows as much as you do for any given Marvel movie? Those ad campaigns are inescapable, they tie in with so much shit.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Of course they won't eliminate it entirely but do you seriously see as much for single video games and TV shows as much as you do for any given Marvel movie? Those ad campaigns are inescapable, they tie in with so much shit.

For Marvel sure, but there's not much on par with Marvel in terms of advertising. I live in the NYC area and overall I see way more billboards/subway advertisements for TV programs than I do for movies.

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KamikazePotato posted...

AAA movie budgets are hilariously inflated to begin with. Actors will have to take pay cuts and they'll have less excess spending.

I take it you haven't seen the insane sums Netflix is paying some of its actors for Netflix movies...
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The great thing about omnipresent advertising is seeing Doritos bags with Wonder Woman on them all year round because they kept assuming the release date would only be pushed back a couple of months... multiple times.

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Nothing of value lost.

I mean, I have to sub to this now right? It's what $15 month?

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This is pretty much the death nail for movie theaters I think. Its actual demise will be long and slow, they'll bleed out over time, but the trajectory is set now.
The only thing that can save the cinema experience at this point is if they come up some new and mindblowing tech that helps you experience a movie in a radically new way that just cannot be replicated at home. And something of the level of 3D ain't gonna cut it this time. I honestly don't even know what that would be though...

I mean I dunno about other people, but I much prefer the experience of watching a new movie in a theater than on my own tv or computer. I would not go to a theater now due to covid, but assuming they're still in business I fully expect to be going back to theaters in 2022.

Unfortunately a lot of theaters are probably gonna die in the short term, but I'm not at all convinced that theaters will be nonviable in the long run.

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They need to add the 4D experience. Shrek did it ages ago



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I generally like watching movies in home theater more - the biggest advantage of the theater is that I'm better at paying attention there. Phone's way too distracting at home...
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Speaking as someone who has seen 2 movies in theaters in the past month, the theater I go to at least had been going to great strides to make sure that it's safe.

There's no loitering in the main area, and you have to have your mask on at all times unless you're eating or drinking. On top of that, when you buy a ticket, the system literally doesn't allow anyone to be 6 feet from one another. And then they also sanitize the entire theater with some kind of spray after each showing and have all kinds of other things they do. They show an entire video before the movie plays of the steps they've taken.

I feel safer inside a movie theater than I do getting groceries, honestly.

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That gives the term "sanitation theater" a whole new meaning
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PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

Speaking as someone who has seen 2 movies in theaters in the past month, the theater I go to at least had been going to great strides to make sure that it's safe.

There's no loitering in the main area, and you have to have your mask on at all times unless you're eating or drinking. On top of that, when you buy a ticket, the system literally doesn't allow anyone to be 6 feet from one another. And then they also sanitize the entire theater with some kind of spray after each showing and have all kinds of other things they do. They show an entire video before the movie plays of the steps they've taken.

I feel safer inside a movie theater than I do getting groceries, honestly.

That's cool and all but it really doesn't matter because the movie industry as it was pre-COVID can't survive like that. The reason they can do these safety strategies is because dramatically less people are seeing movies. Theaters weren't exactly raking it in before all this either.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

That's cool and all but it really doesn't matter because the movie industry as it was pre-COVID can't survive like that. The reason they can do these safety strategies is because dramatically less people are seeing movies. Theaters weren't exactly raking it in before all this either.

No, I agree with all of that. I'm just giving my experience as someone who has seen a few movies lately.

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I can see this leading to a (continued) rise in prominence for boutique theaters like Alamo Drafthouse that focus more on a complete "experience" with dinner and drinks served during the movie. Maybe even bring back entire evening programs, with shorts and double features all being included in the ticket price.

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Yeah, Alamo is where I think theaters can go, although...the ones in my area were still struggling a bit before the pandemic. And unlike the major chains, they've had to (temporarily?) close back down due to lack of business. Reduced volume is still going to be a major issue in the near future.

Like, being a hybrid theater/restaraunt/bar helps diversify you but restaraunts are also a pretty cutthroat business being hit hard.

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bryans7 posted...

That was my thought too. They're eliminating a major revenue stream and I wonder if streaming will make up for it when you have budgets of $200m or more.

It almost certainly won't. Deadline's article on the news has "financial analysts in the know" estimating that Wonder Woman 1984 will need to make ~$500 million in worldwide box office to break even, a take which would shock me at this point. That being said, this gamble isn't about trying to profit on huge tentpoles - it's about establishing HBO Max as a viable option for consumers in a world where streaming is altogether the future and increasingly even the present case of media consumption.

Xiahou Shake posted...

Most of the cost of movies comes from marketing in the cases we're talking about here, though. I can't say anything for certain but I wonder what impact having dedicated space on a streaming platform's home screen will have on the necessity to double a film's budget to plaster busses, billboards and the like.

This isn't quite true. For one thing, reported film (production) budgets almost never include marketing costs, which is why Blumhouse movies look so cheap, for example. For another, ~$150 million is the typical marketing spend for a standard live-action tentpole with a conventional worldwide theatrical rollout, a figure which said movie's production budget will usually exceed.

Also, if there was any doubt that American movie theaters will be reduced to a niche largely in line with that other type of theater sooner rather than later, this announcement should go a long way towards correcting it.

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Data also is a revenue stream if you keep them on your service

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AMC is beyond dead. tons of debt, no clear future, now this? they already extended as many lifelines as possible to restructure their $600 million debt or so, no way in hell they're recovering without Disney straight up buying them basically.

victory to the internet.


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