Current Events > +214k reported new cases in U.S. today

(+) Yeah! (+)

Holy shit. Almost 14k each in Texas and California alone today, 13k in illinois, 10k in Michigan and Florida...

2618 deaths today also. We are well on our way to reaching +350k deaths by end of the year.

Stay safe people, especially during the holidays.

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America, wat r u doin?

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St0rmFury posted...

America, wat r u doin?

dying for the economy. as Emperor Mitch demands.

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That's absolutely fucked

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St0rmFury posted...

America, wat r u doin?

The usual America stuff.

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Where I live in Michigan it's estimated that 10-20% of the local population is infected.

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Out of control. I thought the numbers were staggering back when NYC was at it's worst but this is crazy.

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We did it!

USA! USA! USA!

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300-350k would be about half the number from heart disease, for reference.
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We are number won

Nice

Biden America
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Aki_Sora posted...

Nice

Biden America

You guys swore him in early?????

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finalchao posted...

300-350k would be about half the number from heart disease, for reference.

heart disease isnt airborne and spread by pre-symptomatic people

EngineerGamer posted...

heart disease isnt airborne and spread by pre-symptomatic people

So it's okay if 650k people die as long as you're not at risk of catching what they've got?
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finalchao posted...

So it's okay if 650k people die as long as you're not at risk of catching what they've got?

Do you enjoy assuming people's thoughts?

How can that many people be tested in a day? More people who tested negative would've been tested too.

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finalchao posted...

So it's okay if 650k people die as long as you're not at risk of catching what they've got?

whose alt

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Verdekal posted...

How can that many people be tested in a day? More people who tested negative would've been tested too.

I'm not sure what you're confused about.

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The extreme vast majority of the cases must be mild or asymptomatic. Otherwise, you'd have the streets literally riddled with dying people.

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or, there are enough hospital beds for moderate cases to get better instead of worse. that's the nightmare scenario, and we're getting really close to seeing if it plays out.

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vigorm0rtis posted...

I'm not sure what you're confused about.

If we only count the people who tested positive, it means that there are about 10 thousand people coming up positive every hour. I haven't heard anyone talking about how they or people they know are coming up positive. I work retail, and 98% of the conversation I hear is about people being annoyed with having to wear the masks.

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Verdekal posted...

The extreme vast majority of the cases must be mild or asymptomatic. Otherwise, you'd have the streets literally riddled with dying people.

The current accepted ratio is 40% entirely asymptomatic. That's not the worrisome part, though. The fact that covid is spreading so quickly means that testing is low-- in other words, out testing only represents a fraction of those infected.

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Verdekal posted...

If we only count the people who tested positive, it means that there are about 10 thousand people coming up positive every hour. I haven't heard anyone talking about how they or people they know are coming up positive. I work retail, and 98% of the conversation I hear is about people being annoyed with having to wear the masks.

There are nearly 400 million people in the US, aren't there? 200k is a pretty small share of that. If it's not distributed evenly throughout the population (which it's not), it wouldn't be surprising if you didn't really meet (m)any.

Delirious_Beard posted...

whose alt

finalchao, Black finalchao, finalchao forever, EnigmaX, WandererFinal, Winter Memories, InnocuousApple, ragnarox, and quite a few other usernames.

But if you don't recognise any of those, chances are you've never known me.
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vigorm0rtis posted...

The current accepted ratio is 40% entirely asymptomatic. That's not the worrisome part, though. The fact that covid is spreading so quickly means that testing is low-- in other words, out testing only represents a fraction of those infected.

How is it worrisome if there are half a million or a million or more cases every day, yet hardly anyone is dying? That's a good thing.
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St0rmFury posted...

America, wat r u doin?

Not giving up freedoms I guess lol, I don't mind wearing the masks though

Good news is that we are close to getting a distribution of a vaccine, though for most people I imagine we will probably have to wait late spring to early summer.

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Arcanine2009 posted...

Good news is that we are close to getting a distribution of a vaccine, though for most people I imagine we will probably have to wait late spring to early summer.

Late Spring is a while away.

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finalchao posted...

How is it worrisome if there are half a million or a million or more cases every day, yet hardly anyone is dying? That's a good thing.

254k is apparently "hardly anyone. " Are you for real?

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Iodine posted...

Late Spring is a while away.

It is

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vigorm0rtis posted...

254k is apparently "hardly anyone. " Are you for real?

250,000 400,000,000 = 0.000625.

Just using these estimates, if you knew one thousand people, there would be a 62.5% chance a single one of them died.

For reference, about 3,000,000 people would be expected to die of other causes anyway. If you account for the people who would have died of something else but instead died of viral pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 this year, you end up with about 3,200,000 people dead, being generous. That means more than ten times as many people died of other diseases, murder, accidents, suicide, etc. And that's just normal and no one bats an eye any other year.
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finalchao posted...

250,000 400,000,000 = 0.000625.

Ooh, that's rough methodology. Assuming an entire population has already been exposed and experienced the entire course of the disease, comparing it with the current fatalities to calculate fatality rate?

Stay away from stats 101.

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vigorm0rtis posted...

Ooh, that's rough methodology. Assuming an entire population has already been exposed and experienced the entire course of the disease, comparing it with the current fatalities to calculate fatality rate?

Stay away from stats 101.

Your talking to someone who is just about saying that an extra 250k+ people dying because of our governments absolute terrible management of a virus is no big deal.

Just ignore him.

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Good job america. You knew what you wanted and you took the appropriate course of action to make it happen.

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NoMeLx22x posted...

Your talking to someone who is just about saying that an extra 250k+ people dying because of our governments absolute terrible management of a virus is no big deal.

Just ignore him.

He's in my lane now. I literally get paid to punch up methodology before studies get rolled out.

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Arcanine2009 posted...

Good news is that we are close to getting a distribution of a vaccine, though for most people I imagine we will probably have to wait late spring to early summer.

Yeah and then hopefully we can stop seeing these topics HEY GUYS LOOK AT ALL THESE CASES.

Which isn't a bad thing for now, because it shows people we are fucking up. However it's still fucking annoying.

Once the vaccine is out we don't have to see these shit topics anymore.

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AzurexNightmare posted...

Once the vaccine is out we don't have to see these shit topics anymore.

They're just gonna change over to "look at all the people who won't get the vaccine " topics.

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americans are a special bunch.

FrostedCream posted...

americans are a special bunch.

We're getting more special every year

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vigorm0rtis posted...

Ooh, that's rough methodology. Assuming an entire population has already been exposed and experienced the entire course of the disease, comparing it with the current fatalities to calculate fatality rate?

Stay away from stats 101.

Really? That's the bit you're jumping on?

If you actually were talking about stats, you'd point out you can't straight multiply the 0.000625 by 1000 to get the chance that one person in that thousand would die. In reality, assuming true randomness here, there would be some cases in which multiple people died, and a higher incidence than navely expected of no one at all dying.

Anyway, no, the fact that not everyone has gotten the virus is an important point. Not everyone is going to get the virus, and the people most likely to catch it and die already have done so. Using the total population number versus the total death number is, therefore, a more accurate way of assessing the actual risk from the virus, as it better accounts for these variables which CFR to date would completely ignore.

If you'd instead like to compare a final death tally to the total population, that would certainly be even better, but judging from your apparent lack of equal disagreement with the many "models" which have been egregiously wrong or included real future numbers only at the very low end of their estimated range, I'm not sure I'd trust whichever number you would suggest plugging in.

As an aside: Turns out fear is absolutely the mind-killer. Who would have thought?
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Does the US hold the high score yet?

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Maybe if Biden would do something then this would be controlled

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I said it before, & I'll say it again:

Americans have died on Black Friday for far less. No chance they'll surrender Thanksgiving & Christmas.

Unless we hit the breaking point of people dying off in droves, America as a collective will REFUSE to quarantine, & some of them have already decided they won't do a shutdown, regardless of the situation. This holiday season is potentially about to get very dark.

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St0rmFury posted...

America, wat r u doin?

Whatever the fuck we want! Freedom! Rock n roooolllll! Monster trucks and beer!
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finalchao posted...

Really? That's the bit you're jumping on?

Yeah. I'm not going to nitpick your math when you're plugging in questionable figures. You literally can't be correct.

Anyway, no, the fact that not everyone has gotten the virus is an important point. Not everyone is going to get the virus, and the people most likely to catch it and die already have done so.

Not only is this an... interesting assumption, the fact is we don't know who is most likely to die from it. People with weak immune systems are more susceptible, but lasting damage appears to be a result of immune response. You've assumed a variable the CDC can't identify yet. 1-800-CDC-INFO (1-800-232-4636) I'm sure they'll be interested in your insight.

Using the total population number versus the total death number is, therefore, a more accurate way of assessing the actual risk from the virus, as it better accounts for these variables which CFR to date would completely ignore.

If you'd instead like to compare a final death tally to the total population, that would certainly be even better,

You plugged in the current known US death rate into a number almost 8 times higher than the known global infection rate. Why would I bother to check your math again?

As an aside: Turns out fear is absolutely the mind-killer. Who would have thought?

The only way covid has affected me is I don't get my cardio in, I've made a lot more money this year, and dating kind of sucks, but... meh. Calculating risk isn't fear. It's just not dumb.

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finalchao posted...

300-350k would be about half the number from heart disease, for reference.

Oh...let me start eating healthy, exercise, take meds to lower my chances of not catching covid and dying from it.

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vigorm0rtis posted...

They're just gonna change over to "look at all the people who won't get the vaccine " topics.

Yeah but at that point I'll be able to post "shut the fuck up" and not get modded. (I know you can say stfu but I don't think you can about the virus)

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Verdekal posted...

The extreme vast majority of the cases must be mild or asymptomatic. Otherwise, you'd have the streets literally riddled with dying people.

you do know this isnt Hollywood?

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hard to deal with all! this! WINNING!!!!!!!!

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I can't believe we're cooking the books even harder when we already made Trump look bad enough to lose

/s

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