Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 346: One Q Over the Coup Coup's Nest

(+) Yeah! (+)

What's this I hear about more votes than voters?

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You'll need to be more specific. I believe there have been multiple lies about "more votes than voters" in a variety of locations that have all been false.

In some cases these claims relay on out of date information as far as number of registered voters. And they don't consider locations that allow same-day-registration. Or other cases where individual precincts were being scrutinized and in cases where there were issues with polling workers successfully "checking in" voters at their precinct there were some discrepancies in the number of people checked in vs the number of votes received. But it was nothing out of the ordinary for an election and in the location in question (detroit) accounted for some 0.2% of the votes city wide. So one out of every 500 people didn't get checked off a list correctly or thereabouts.

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331261330859438080?s=19

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so with ingram also pulling back, what's left of the major fox hosts? hannity, who else? wasn't expecting her to follow along with... well, reality, so soon publicly on the show.

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Latest Steven Crowder video is titled "CALLING ALL PATRIOTS TO DISOBEY" and the thumbnail is him holding a gun

very healthy, very normal, this will totally be a smooth transition

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crowder is another person who appeared several times on rogan.

interesting how much rogan seems to like inviting alt-right lunatics back on his show.

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haven't seen it yet but i'm assuming this is referring to the lockdowns and restrictions politicians are trying to put in.
which most people are ignoring anyway; LAX is full of people, Whitmer's got articles of impeachment filed and lawsuits, politicians themselves ain't following the rules, and i think everyone knows a number of people who just ain't gonna listen. i mean shit, there was a Jewish wedding here in NYC with thousands of people that happened and that got Cuomo super pissed. there's definitely going to be nothing peaceful if you try to do lockdowns on Thanksgiving or Christmas and it'll be flatly rejected across the spectrum.


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Wanglicious posted...

there's definitely going to be nothing peaceful if you try to do lockdowns on Thanksgiving or Christmas and it'll be flatly rejected across the spectrum.

I dont think you have looked fully across the spectrum
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Like I understand we cant lock down because need to keep businesses operating much more than we cant lock down because of arbitrary holidays

At least with the first one the government wont supply people with the aid they need to weather months of being out of work so theres an issue of livelihood for you and your family

This is just pure selfishness
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PA certified.

It's over....again..for the 5th time.

Still probably gonna be a 6th or 7th time.

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i mean you can say it's pure selfishness but people will still do it. it's literally thanksgiving and christmas, you are not getting compliance by the masses. its been 9 months, no, not happening.

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Wanglicious posted...

i mean you can say it's pure selfishness but people will still do it. it's literally thanksgiving and christmas, you are not getting compliance by the masses. its been 9 months, no, not happening.

Oh I know Im not getting it, Im just judging them all as potential manslaughter suspects
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here I am already loving that I didn't have to attend any big thanksgiving this october

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Jakyl25 posted...

Oh I know Im not getting it, Im just judging them all as potential manslaughter suspects

in their defense, mental health is in shambles so for many this is just a way to feel better. normally not the best of excuses but when suicide, drug use, drug addictions, etc are through the roof, it matters. if you're going to argue them as morally potential manslaughter suspects, then you're also in that moral ground if you don't want them to go anywhere because you're taking away a key thing to help in their mental health that would otherwise crush it.

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here, so you get an idea of how bad things are right now.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/23/covid-pandemic-rise-suicides/
https://archive.is/Bx0xP

Since the coronavirus arrived, depression and anxiety in America have become rampant. Federal surveys show 40 percent of Americans are now grappling with at least one mental health or drug-related problem. But young adults have been hit harder than any other age group, with 75 percent struggling.

Even more alarming, when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently asked young adults if they had thought about killing themselves in the past 30 days, 1 of 4 said they had.

Americas system for monitoring suicides is so broken and slow that experts wont know until roughly two years after the pandemic whether suicides have risen nationally. But coroners and medical examiners are already seeing troubling signs.

In Arizonas Pima County, officials have sent two health bulletins alerting doctors and hospitals to spikes in suicides. In Oregons Columbia County, the number of suicides by summer had already surpassed last years total. In the sprawling Chicago suburbs, DuPage County has reported a 23 percent rise compared with last year. And in the city itself, the number of suicides among African Americans has far surpassed the total for 2019, even as officials struggle to understand whether the deaths are being driven by the pandemic, racial unrest or both. What has shocked medical examiners in Chicago is the age range from a 57-year-old deputy police chief to a 9-year-old child.

there's a lot more in the article as it's really long and it covers a few stories but that's the relevant part. but with data like this:


i can't say it's wrong to want to see family and friends for thanksgiving and christmas. you can call it selfish but right now a lot of people need that too as trying to restrict it will break them. damned if you do, damned if you don't.

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Wanglicious posted...

in their defense, mental health is in shambles so for many this is just a way to feel better. normally not the best of excuses but when suicide, drug use, drug addictions, etc are through the roof, it matters. if you're going to argue them as morally potential manslaughter suspects, then you're also in that moral ground if you don't want them to go anywhere because you're taking away a key thing to help in their mental health that would otherwise crush it.

If the only people that traveled and gathered were people who needed to for mental health reasons, things would be less crowded!
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by the numbers, i'm not too sure of that!
right now if it'd help your mental health cool, go for it but know the risk. and if it'd help your mental health to not go cool, you've got an excuse. best of both worlds!

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Also the holidays are arbitrary so maybe they could see their family last week! Or next week!

But then that gets back to people being forced to work those weeks because the government wont provide aid

So really its the governments fault as so many things in this country are
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You can see family and friends without having to have a 10-15 person Thanksgiving/Christmas dinner though. Just have smaller groups meet up instead. I agree that there are people who are very dismissive of how lockdowns can effect people's mental helath, and who are being very unhelpful in trying to find ways to work with others and come up with safe ways to go on living and keep everyone from losing it.

However, that is not what's going on with these large affairs. Is someone's mental health going to deteriorate because they only saw 2 of their cousins this holiday season instead of all 7? Is someone's mental health going to deteriorate because they drove to Thanksgiving instead of flying? Is someone's mental health going to deteriorate because they can't kiss Grandma on the cheek and stay a safe distance away from her at some family dinner? No, of course not, and the fact that people can't be bothered to take such relatively simple precautions belies what their true motivations are.

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My mom isn't too happy she can't come visit for Thanksgiving this year. But she's going to come visit around the 10th when people should be traveling less.

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My family "cancelled" Thanksgiving and Christmas like a month ago. But my mom has always taken COVID super seriously from the start so there was never really any doubt in my mind that was going to happen, though I was still a bit surprised and impressed at how early the call was made.

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10-15 should be fine for a lot of places but i'm not gonna start defending the super large ones and agree with trimming it down. that said, again, right in the data by the CDC: 75% of 18-24 have a mental/drug problem, 52% for those 25-44. if your group would normally be some 15-20 people, by the numbers you're still looking at double digits with issues and they may have gotten worse.

driving vs. flying, i don't get. flying is safer and has more precautions. it's also the more convenient of the two options.

if grandma is at the dinner and decides to do it, that's her decision too. i ain't gonna tell her that she can't do it if she wants to.

Jakyl25 posted...

Also the holidays are arbitrary so maybe they could see their family last week! Or next week!

but it's not thanksgiving or christmas if so.
people place value on that, it's what vacations are planned around, it's when those days are even offered for plenty who work. it's not really arbitrary as much as what's realistically there and trying to redfine it as that is some sort of redefinition bullshit of "well it doesn't really exist." nah, in our society, across every system, it exists and dismissing that just doesn't work.

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Question, do they still teach the Pro-Pilgrim propaganda in schools? It was, like, a yearly part of my entire elementary curriculum.

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

You'll need to be more specific. I believe there have been multiple lies about "more votes than voters" in a variety of locations that have all been false.

In some cases these claims relay on out of date information as far as number of registered voters. And they don't consider locations that allow same-day-registration. Or other cases where individual precincts were being scrutinized and in cases where there were issues with polling workers successfully "checking in" voters at their precinct there were some discrepancies in the number of people checked in vs the number of votes received. But it was nothing out of the ordinary for an election and in the location in question (detroit) accounted for some 0.2% of the votes city wide. So one out of every 500 people didn't get checked off a list correctly or thereabouts.

Someone on YT Sent me whatever the heck this is:

Smoking Gun: ES&S Transferring Vote Ratios between Precincts in PA. - By: Edward Solomon (rumble.com)

This sends off so many red flags without even watching the video. Either way, PA certifying the election result just makes this whole thing look even dumber.

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Wanglicious posted...

but it's not thanksgiving or christmas if so.
people place value on that,

Yeah and those people are stupid if they specifically place more value on those holidays than not following COVID protocols

I did say that yes, the days off from work are a factor and for that we must blame the government

But other than that its just tradition bullshit, and tradition is stupid
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Wanglicious posted...

if grandma is at the dinner and decides to do it, that's her decision too. i ain't gonna tell her that she can't do it if she wants to.

I am, at least when it comes to kissing me

EDIT: although I gotta say Im lucky in that both my grandmas are progressives who take COVID seriously
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Assuming a naive* distribution of cases in America, a gathering of 10 people has a 15% chance to have an infected person there. A 15 person gathering has 20%. If a third of the country has a Thanksgiving celebration with 10 people, and each gathering has at most one infected person there, then that's 14 million new cases if everybody at the gathering gets infected. Still over a million new cases if only one person gets infected. By comparison, if that same group had a gathering of 5 people, then... well, it turns out to boil down to about half the cases at 6.66M (hail binomial approximation). That's pretty not good. This is very rough math, but you get the idea. Don't put all your eggs in one basket and all

*An even proportion of cases across the country, everybody is asymptotic and contagious. Using 5M active cases I found from worldometers

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Jakyl25 posted...

Yeah and those people are stupid if they specifically place more value on those holidays than not following COVID protocols

I did say that yes, the days off from work are a factor and for that we must blame the government

But other than that its just tradition bullshit, and tradition is stupid

and that value of the holidays will affect mental health and stability.
you can say it's stupid but it exists, it's a real thing, and you should work with what's there instead of just dismissing it.

like really if you're gonna say they're potentially manslaughter suspects then trying to lock people down would make you an accomplice to potential manslaughter or suicide too. people are going to die on both ends here and there is no way to separate those who would really need this from those who just really want this, at least not on any macro level. if you start looking into the details, trying to limit gatherings, restrictions, etc at least you're arguing with full acknowledgement that it's morally right to allow this, you're just arguing about the specifics of finding that line between needs and wants, which is gonna be tricky since, by the data, shit is really, really fucked right now. if 1/4 people are thinking of suicide in a time when we by 8 months easily surpassed the previous year's totals, shit is really fucked. you gotta have leeway, especially with something that, and you may find it stupid, is as important as the holidays. you don't want these rates to get any worse than they have to either.

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Do you have the mental health numbers from before the pandemic? I recall them being worryingly high then too, though not this bad.

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Wanglicious posted...

and that value of the holidays will affect mental health and stability.
you can say it's stupid but it exists, it's a real thing, and you should work with what's there instead of just dismissing it.

like really if you're gonna say they're potentially manslaughter suspects then trying to lock people down would make you an accomplice to potential manslaughter or suicide too. people are going to die on both ends here and there is no way to separate those who would really need this from those who just really want this, at least not on any macro level. if you start looking into the details, trying to limit gatherings, restrictions, etc at least you're arguing with full acknowledgement that it's morally right to allow this, you're just arguing about the specifics of finding that line between needs and wants, which is gonna be tricky since, by the data, shit is really, really fucked right now. if 1/4 people are thinking of suicide in a time when we by 8 months easily surpassed the previous year's totals, shit is really fucked. you gotta have leeway, especially with something that, and you may find it stupid, is as important as the holidays. you don't want these rates to get any worse than they have to either.

Maybe this gets into my most controversial opinion

Unless you have dependents, you should absolutely have the right to commit suicide if you want to and it shouldnt be considered a tragedy. Everyone who is not taking care of someone else should have the unencumbered right to die.
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I have a little bit less sympathy for the mental health of people that HAVE to have large gatherings specifically on holidays because it's a lot of these people that didn't follow precautions and got us where we are in the first place. They created their own problem.

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JeffreyRaze posted...

Do you have the mental health numbers from before the pandemic? I recall them being worryingly high then too, though not this bad.

I was actually thinking the same.

Looking it up, NIH says 1 in 5 US adults (51.5 million) in 2019. That's... actually lower than I thought it was. (I thought it was at least 1 in 4.)

NIH goes on to say 18-25 year olds reported at 29.4%, the highest age group.

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StartTheMachine posted...

Done!

https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2020-11-18/half-of-republicans-believe-president-trump-won-election-poll-finds

hey foolmo

More polls keep coming out and it's looking more and more like over 35 million people will actually believe this

still hope you're right though when all is said and done with

If there's ones thing Republicans are good at it's checking the party's box on a survey. There's no cost to lying and going with the flow here. But eventually there will be a cost to continuing the charade, and that's where you'll see who truly believes the conspiracy.

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Wanglicious posted...

and that value of the holidays will affect mental health

Also I want a source on that

I want a source that says people are more likely to kill themselves if they see their family on November 10th instead of November 26th
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NFUN posted...

This is very rough math, but you get the idea

It doesn't match the numbers we've seen so it's clear the math is off in some critical ways.

The question is whether the small gatherings + some large gatherings will surpass the number of cases that we currently have with many industries/offices/shops fully open. It might be that taking a couple days off from going out actually reduces the spread.

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If holidays are so desperately vital to people's health, why do we allow businesses to remain open and make you work on them?

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JeffreyRaze posted...

Do you have the mental health numbers from before the pandemic? I recall them being worryingly high then too, though not this bad.

can probably find it for 2018 and 2019 in a few, WaPo article did have this chart for suicide too at least:



but i can look around for stuff. easiest starting point i found was here:
https://www.mhanational.org/issues/state-mental-health-america

covered data from a few years so you can see what things were pre-covid and the issues that were rising from 2016 to 2018 in most areas, good data tends to trail by 2 years. still, they had a January to September spotlight, and a few of their results showed (this is all copy/paste):

• From January to September 2020, 315,220 people took the anxiety screen, a 93 percent increase over the 2019 total number of anxiety screens. 534,784 people took the depression screen, a 62 percent increase over the 2019 total number of depression screens.
• More people are reporting frequent thoughts of suicide and self-harm than have ever been recorded in the MHA Screening program since its launch in 2014. Since the COVID-19 pandemic began to spread rapidly in March 2020, over 178,000 people have reported frequent suicidal ideation. 37 percent of people reported having thoughts of suicide more than half or nearly every day in September 2020.
• People screening at risk for mental health conditions are struggling most with loneliness or isolation. From April to September 2020, among people who screened with moderate to severe symptoms of anxiety or depression, 70 percent reported that one of the top three things contributing to their mental health concerns was loneliness or isolation.

they raise a bunch of other points and get into specifics of race and LGBT but that copy/paste summarizes some of the key details without going too long in this post. i'd also point out that Jan to September is pretty firm election time so surely that's an element that's changed, but in what directions i don't know. it's also before the current spike of covid cases we got mainly in October, with us now looking like we're gonna hit and surpass peak levels this week. overall, safe bet that the current situation is rapidly worsening.

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Jakyl25 posted...

Maybe this gets into my most controversial opinion

Unless you have dependents, you should absolutely have the right to commit suicide if you want to and it shouldnt be considered a tragedy. Everyone who is not taking care of someone else should have the unencumbered right to die.

Even if the person is not of sound mind, which mental illness tends to affect?

We can go down the philosophical rabbit hole if you like but I can't tell if you are missing the point that most people who die via suicide are not approaching it rationally, or saying that you do understand that and it's fine.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Even if the person is not of sound mind, which mental illness tends to affect?

We can go down the philosophical rabbit hole if you like but I can't tell if you are missing the point that most people who die via suicide are not approaching it rationally, or saying that you do understand that and it's fine.

As a suicide attempt survivor I do understand that and I dont think it matters.
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Jakyl25 posted...

As a suicide attempt survivor I do understand that and I dont think it matters.

Why, if you don't mind me asking?

I've only ever had suicidal thoughts but metaphorically speaking, I'd have regretted any follow through. This is only possible because I have hindsight, but hindsight requires the current preventative framing.

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Jakyl25 posted...

Maybe this gets into my most controversial opinion

Unless you have dependents, you should absolutely have the right to commit suicide if you want to and it shouldnt be considered a tragedy. Everyone who is not taking care of someone else should have the unencumbered right to die.

i mean personally i'm not that far off from you on this but i also get that my personal opinion is outweighed by things like the goods the state should provide, social contract rules, and other more systemic reasons for why suicide should be treated negatively. which maybe is different than tragedy, though it overlaps. right now it seems euthanasia is the line between acceptable or not and i'm not sure there's any good reason to not allow it. like to be clear, i don't really personally disagree with a lot of what you're saying - i never was one for family celebrations, large gatherings, and i don't care for thanksgiving much. hell, i've explicitly said black friday is by far the better "holiday" and have been quite happy with its takeover over the past 15 years. my disagreement's just coming from the data, seeing what people are doing, hearing what they're saying, and it just matches up that yeah my personal take is in the minority on this one and isn't something i can morally justify against them.

Jakyl25 posted...

Also I want a source on that

I want a source that says people are more likely to kill themselves if they see their family on November 10th instead of November 26th

now you know that's just being cheeky. though now i do wonder what data is out there that covers the specific range versus another one, but i think for that data would totally focus more on Christmas due to religion, and i know you love that.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Why, if you don't mind me asking?

I've only ever had suicidal thoughts but metaphorically speaking, I'd have regretted any follow through. This is only possible because I have hindsight, but hindsight requires the current preventative framing.

If you kill yourself, it doesnt matter if you would have regretted it later because you dont exist any more. You cant regret it even if you do it because there is no you. Life is not inherently more valuable or a greater state of being than non-life.
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Wanglicious posted...

now you know that's just being cheeky.

Thats EXACTLY what youre arguing though!
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Jakyl25 posted...

If you kill yourself, it doesnt matter if you would have regretted it later because you dont exist any more. You cant regret it even if you do it because there is no you. Life is not inherently more valuable or a greater state of being than non-life.

Why should your wish at the moment of that choice have priority over your wishes at all other times of your life, past and future?

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red sox 777 posted...

Why should your wish at the moment of that choice have priority over your wishes at all other times of your life, past and future?

We arent 4th dimensional beings. We only exist in the moment. Your past self no longer exists and will never exist again, and your future self has no guarantee or right to ever exist if you choose to not let it.

There is no You except the you of RIGHT NOW
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Jakyl25 posted...

If you kill yourself, it doesnt matter if you would have regretted it later because you dont exist any more. You cant regret it even if you do it because there is no you. Life is not inherently more valuable or a greater state of being than non-life.

That's what the second sentence there is addressing. I'm rejecting this philosophical stance in favor of tangible processes of decision-making and outcomes. I do accept that life has no value other than what we make of it. What I am questioning is how you can be so sure that someone has a proper assessment of the value of their life, when this subjective assessment can value dramatically at different points in time. Or, more accurately, why you don't think the variance matters at all.

"Life is not more inherently valuable than non-life" does not automatically prove "life has no value" or "the non-value of a life remains constant"

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

I do accept that life has no value other than what we make of it. What I am questioning is how you can be so sure that someone has a proper assessment of the value of their life, when this subjective assessment can value dramatically at different points in time. Or, more accurately, why you don't think the variance matters at all.

Because if youre wrong, it wont matter
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Jakyl25 posted...

We arent 4th dimensional beings. We only exist in the moment. Your past self no longer exists and will never exist again, and your future self has no guarantee or right to ever exist if you choose to not let it.

There is no You except the you of RIGHT NOW

We obviously exist in 4 dimensions. If we did not, we could not perceive time. But we can perceive it and we move in it. We just can't control our motion in that dimension.

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