Board 8 > Board 8 National Football League League (B8NFLL) Season 14: The Offseason

(+) Yeah! (+)

KCF0107 posted...

RIP User Teams
Bengals

They'll be remembering this when Derrick Henry unleashes his massive dong all over the league

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"New" Sherriff: Dolphins

Uh-huh
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As far as Madden was concerned the Cowboys were the best team in the league for the last 17 decades

Giants still the cream of the rest of the crop.

Can't wait to see how we blow it this year

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I think there was a season where the Dolphins tied for the best rating in the league, but they have never been the solo leader. It has otherwise been some combination of Washington/Broncos/Cowboys.
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Wildcats release DT Randy Starks and sign DT Terrance Knighton
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To Do:
- Add in free agent contracts to financial sheet (I swear that I will do this!)
- Sim preseason and do my annual post-preseason RotY and division/conference predictions
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Bills cut:
Mychal Kendricks
Luke Kuechly
Doug Benson (move Jelani Jenkins to ROLB to facilitate cut)
Anthony Stone
and
ugh, I can't decide between Tim Valentine and Ripkowski to get under cap. :( Valentine might be the obvious choice, but I don't want to see him go. I'll let KCF decide which of the two to cut.

Just casually cutting Luke Kuechly eg

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I realize that newcomers wouldn't know this, but I just want to remind people that the only thing that asking me to change preseason depth charts does is waste my time.
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Don't players get playing time/improve based on pre-season?

1st string, 2nd string, 3rd string, it doesn't matter. They all get a lot of playing time comparable to one another, and the AI completely re-orders the depth chart at the end of the preseason. We've gone over this like every season lol.
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I mean, you're allowed to do as you'd like, but it's almost certainly going to be the same as my regular season depth chart (though I guess major injuries might change that), so there's really no point in me not sending you one since that was going to happen at some point anyway.

I think the point is that if you make changes now and then the player you put in loses his positional battle, KCF has to change it again after preseason if you want to still go with that guy as starter. So it's just wasting his time making him do it twice rather than just waiting until after preseason to make the change.

Yeah, I get that. I'm just saying he doesn't have to make any changes until after the pre-season if he doesn't want to. If he doesn't think it matters, then it doesn't matter to me either.

Just a heads up, RG Kevin Pamphile (age 25, OVR 80) is on the trade block. One year left, $2.46 mil. Looking for draft picks. Shoot me a PM if interested!

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Chiefs release CB Philip Gaines.

This reminds me to remind everyone (again I realize that newcomers wouldn't know this) that I prefer that you inform me of player releases via PM or Discord DM as the odds of me missing it are basically zero.
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Buccaneers release SS Joel Grant
Colts release WR Adam Humphries
Falcons release DE Lamar Williams
Falcons release MLB Alvin Williams
Falcons release OT Tim Martin
Lions release QB E.J. Manuel
Lions release OLB Eric Sherman
Lions release MLB Perry Riley
Washington releases QB Bryce Petty

Falcons sign DE Byron Carter
Falcons sign OT Dusty Swain
Falcons sign MLB Dexter Holmberg
Lions sign QB Aaron Rodgers
Lions sign OLB Doug Benson

I think that I have finally made every user team under the cap now...until preseason injuries occur. I will sim it later on.
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To Do:
- Update Depth Chart sheet
- Finish adding in free agent contracts
- RotY + divisonal/conference seeding predictions
- Figute out when I want to start the season
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Express signed WR Sam DeSa
Jets signed QB Johnny Manziel
Rams signed OT Winston Justice
Vikings signed DT Randy Starks

I think this was all of the AI preseason signings
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damn good signing by the Express

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I was wondering what happened to Manziel after i didn't see him on the Cowboys roster

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Ok Jamario. I know you're like 103 in HB years but you passed step 1 by not getting injured in preseason. Now I'm just going to need you to have your first fully healthy season since 2014 and carry the ball like 400-450 times. Because you definitely aren't getting any help from anywhere else on the offense

Either that or the defense is going to have to hold teams to sub 10 points a game which still may not be enough

The Depth Chart sheet should now be updated for preseason events. Please, please, please look over it 10 or however many times it takes for you to fully comprehend what you are seeing. Without fail, at least one person is unaware of their depth chart and makes a comment at some point asking why so-and-so player is starting or why another player isn't. The depth charts are updated every season after the postseason as the game automatically re-orders it based on preseason performance and position battles. I have nothing to do it with it, so don't ask me why. Just ask me to update it if it bothers you.
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To Do:
- RotY + divisonal/conference seeding predictions
- Figute out when I want to start the season
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KCF0107 posted...

The Depth Chart sheet should now be updated for preseason events. Please, please, please look over it 10 or however many times it takes for you to fully comprehend what you are seeing. Without fail, at least one person is unaware of their depth chart and makes a comment at some point asking why so-and-so player is starting or why another player isn't. The depth charts are updated every season after the postseason as the game automatically re-orders it based on preseason performance and position battles. I have nothing to do it with it, so don't ask me why. Just ask me to update it if it bothers you.

Can you please have Peppers start as my SS lol

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AFC West Prediction

1. Denver Broncos
2. Washington Hawks
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Kansas City Chiefs

After reaching the Super Bowl in S10, the Broncos have still managed to go 27-21 since then but no playoff appearances. Make no mistake about it though, they have still performed like one of the conference's best teams the past three seasons. They've just been unlucky in the win/loss column. In this division, the Broncos have the most talented team, the best defense, and the most potent rushing attack. Those three areas make them a highly formidable team capable of winning any game. By virtue of placing second last season and getting the AFC North and NFC West this season this season, they have quite the favorable schedule also avoiding the Dolphins and last year's SB rep in the Pioneers. Having left the preseason with just a minor injury to one starter, I just feel like there's no way they miss out on the playoffs for a fourth straight season.

The retooling job by the Express is quite impressive on paper. After losing so many long-time starters, including a hall of famer, they appeared to be heading into a rebuilding phase (on offense mainly). After trades with the Bears, Dolphins, Pats, and the draft, they are quickly back in the playoff conversation. Now, not all of these new players will work out immediately, and they get the Dolphins and Pioneers for winning the division last season, but they have a good defense, a great offensive line, and one of the league's best HBs in DeMarco Murray. I think that they have a good chance of making it three straight trips to the postseason.

The Raiders are a curious case. Despite them getting rid of one of the best two-way DTs in the league (Babtunde Oshinowo) for no reason, they should still have a high floor on defense. I'm worried about the offense though. The OL is not what it used to be. They lost three starters including a hall of fame, one of the league's most underrated Cs, and a pretty good G coming off of a down season. They replaced them with a rookie, a mostly untested player, and a disappointing player already on his third team. Their strong OL in recent seasons (which included two hall of famers and another finalist), helped an offense with middling talent soar to some great heights. Now that the OL is one of the weaker ones in the league, the offense and its lack of depth could potentially be an alarming liability if HB R.J. Jackson goes down. What is to their benefit is the schedule of a third place team (Jets and Titans) and the postseason saw them lose nobody of importance. I just don't know if it will be enough to see them in the postseason this season.

The Chiefs were only two games back from the division last season (which was still a 4th place finish), but statistically, they were the worst team by a considerable margin. The talent gap is an issue, but it's the defense that has really sunk their hope of reaching .500 for the past few seasons. I still expect them to finish last again, and they probably won't be two games back in the division, but I do think the team will make some gains by being more well-rounded and all-around competitive. Having loads of cash in free agency, they used it to get proven vets that will account for 6/11 starters on defense. These proven vets don't quite match up to what their divisional foes have, but the point is that the Chiefs are a lot better on paper than they have been in quite some time, and it is important that they invested in their DL to help stop the likes of HBs that I routinely rank among my Top 5-7 six times a season. I have no faith in the wildly inconsistent QB Jimmy Garoppolo, and HB LeGarrette Blount is one of the weaker starting HBs in the league, so I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the season the Chiefs' D has outperformed the O.
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AFC East

1. Miami Dolphins
2. New England Patriots
3. Buffalo Bills
4. New York Jets

The Dolphins have been declared the sole leader in team rating (talent) for the first time in our history, but they did lose their long-time RG Kendall Simmons, lost a bunch of key reserves in RFA, and had a whatever draft. It doesn't help that they lost their stud RT for more than half the season, and the league's best WR for multiple games. It would be a stunner if they lose the division, but they certainly are worse off to begin this season than they ended it last season. The question is what kind of seed will they get. Their toughest part of their schedule is in the middle of the season, so if they wish to have a first round bye for the fourth straight season, they need to keep their health and avoid upsets along the way. Even if seeding doesn't go their way, they should still be among the Super Bowl favorites given their star power and reliable production from them.

I could honestly go in any direction here, but given the Bills have plenty of question marks and the Jets once again were screwed over by injuries, I will say the Pats repeat as the second place finisher for the third straight season. For starters, their defense has been generally reliable. They did lose DT Clifton Dickson due to cap reasons, but they did have former #33 overall pick Brandon Williams ready to start. They replaced mediocre MLB Ken Reid with a much better player in Clifton Thompson, and they also added to the CB corps Bashaud Breeland who won the #1 job out of the preseason. It isn't unreasonable to think that the additions of Thompson and Breeland outweigh the loss of Dickson. The offense though is something else. They do have a great OL, and oft-injured HB Dexter McCluster does have a career 4.4 YPC. The passing game though has a chance to be among the league's worst. They lost their top two WRs from last season, leaving them with one of the league's weakest WR corps. Combine that with a dying TE Heath Miller and QB Cam Newton who passed for 2200 yards and a 70.1 passer rating, and this offense desperately needs McCluster to not miss a game after having missed 14 of the past 32 games. Another knock against them is that they unnecessarily cut K Mason Crosby and P Dustin Colquitt and replaced them with players a combined 41 points lower than them. That hurt the team rating and could ultimately cost them a win or two. The combo of defense, OL, and McCluster should keep them in the playoff hunt, but they don't have a high ceiling and are in a fragile position that could quickly go south.

The Bills were one of the league's worst teams last season with both their offense and defense finishing in the bottom 10. Both of those figures should improve, even if it may not be by much. It cost them the services of a potential hall of fame SS, but the Bills got much needed help on the DL with getting Babatunde Oshinowo from the Raiders. I wish they would have done better to help out the end spots than D'Qwell Jackson and a sub-80 rookie, but I guess Oshinowo will have to carry the load like Kris Jenkins did. The offense has a chance to be league average with a potential star in the making in HB Todd Gurley and the best QB they've had since Brady Quinn in Jimmy Clausen, but the OL still has a long way to go. What I am most worried about is they inexplicably signed two 84+ WRs, bringing their total to three...again. In a defensive and run-driven league, it just doesn't make sense, and the Bills especially could have used the savings to beef up areas of much greater importance in the OL or defense. If there's one saving grace, it is that the schedule isn't particular tough. They virtually escaped the preseason unscatched, so that also helps.

I was all prepared to put the Jets second, but then the offense was hit hard with injuries, and they will be without their top QB, HB, and WR for multiple games. If they enter the bye 1-4 or worse, which I think has decent odds of happening, it might be too large of a hole to recover from to enter the playoff discussion and maybe even the division cellar. I say that as the Rams went like 0-6 to begin the season in S12 only to end up 8-8 and NFC West champions, but the AFC East is a fair bit better than the NFC West was that season. The Jets have a pretty well-rounded team, but they've underperformed a bit and have also been quite unlucky. It's starting to become a trend, so my enthuasiasm for this team has been tempered some. There is a chance that the injuries do not set them back though. They have a pretty formidable OL after adding LT Travelle Wharton in free agency, and two of the backups stepping (QB Johnny Manziel and HB Selvin Young) do have good track records. Manziel in fact sits 9th in career passer rating among players with 250+ attempts. If both do well to begin the season, I can see the Jets being 3-2 entering their bye, and those theoretical two additional wins could be the difference.
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AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Mexico City Browns
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cincinnati Bengals

The Ravens have won the division for three straight seasons with 10-6 records. The rest of the division has sadly not really made much of an effort to bridge the gap and threaten to end their streak. The Ravens responded by signing one of the league's best DTs in Claude Wroten and the retired MLB Rian Wallace's superior replacement in Sam Crooks. In S14, the Ravens will be starting just their fourth full-time QB. Trevor Siemian joins Billy Volek, Omar Jacobs, and Ben Roethlisberger. This has always been one of the more run-driven teams, so they may not ask much from Siemien. It is highly unlikely that he will maintain his current 95.4 passer rating on 67% passing, but if he can perform something closer to peak Jacobs (low INT% with low-80s passer ratings on 61+% passing, this offense could help pair with a great defense to put them in the SB discussion. With the Ravens being injury-free entering the season and most of the tougher matchups being played at home, I fully expect a fourth-straight division crown, perhaps with a better record!

The Browns have their offensive core set. They have rising stars in HB Mark Ingram and WR DeAndre Hopkins, OL who are vastly improving in OTs Ryan Clady and Anthony Collins and G Kevin Zeitler, and a sophomore QB who ended their rookie season strong in Dak Prescott. They all helped get the Browns to their first non-losing season in a long time. In order to take the next step, the defense needs to approach league average levels, and that is a big question mark. Their LB corps is set for a long time, but the DL and secondary is in a state of flux. Their three best players in those areas (DE Pierre Woods, FS Lovon Ponder, and SS Jessie Daniels) are at the end of their careers, so in switching philosophies to a 3-4 defense, they will need to hope that immediately pays off dividends or the defense is going to look pretty damn sorry in the near future as this team continues to find themselves outside of the playoffs.

The Steelers are basically in a rebuild. From top to bottom, I can't imagine this offense finishing in the top half of the league (I would say something bolder with like Bottom 10, but employing a scrambling QB makes it very hard to have a putrid offense). The core players of their defense are still there, which should help prevent them from being one of the league's worst teams, but they are poised to start multiple sub-80 players, which is something people should avoid whenever possible. Even though they left the preseason injury-free and play the NFC South, I expect offensive and defensive regression from the Steelers and a season-long fight to finish .500.

The Bengals hit rock bottom last season after hovering around .500 for the few seasons before that. They didn't do much in free agency nor grab rookies in the draft who are expected to see the field much right away except for #1 pick HB Derrick Henry. They will essentially be relying on to become competitive players bouncing back, or in the case of many, establishing for the first time that they deserve to be starters. I'm not sure how much faith I can put into this defense as a whole. The offense I have more hope in. Since Henry won the starting job, perhaps the offense can become more dynamic, especially if it directly leads to a much better turnover differential with QB Jake Locker having thrown 45 INTs across his first two seasons. The Bengals should have one of the lowest playoff odds, but maybe Henry can make things exciting and give this franchise some hope for the future.
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AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Columbus Pioneers
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Tennessee Titans

The Colts managed to win 10 games last season, plus one in the playoffs, essentially because of their defense and special teams. The Colts finished with the league's #1 D last season, and with bringing all 11 starters back, you have to expect they will be elite again this season. That alone is good enough to get them in the playoffs. While long-time and one of the league's best Ps in Shane Lechler retired, they immediately went out and got a great replacement in Dustin Colquitt. K Jeff Reed has hit 82+ % of his FGs in five of the past six seasons, and WR Cordarrelle Patterson has been a Returner of the Year candidate for the past two seasons. I expect their special teams to perform well again this season. That just leaves the offense, and well, that was a Bottom 10 unit last season with free agent busts and rookies playing like rookies. While one would expect QB Colin Kaepernick to finish with something better than the fourth-worst passer rating among qualified passers and HB Duke Johnson to improve upon his paltry 3.6 YPC, this offense doesn't have much high-end talent or depth, so I can't imagine this offense being anything resembling prolific. If it can just be more efficient, the Colts can be a Super Bowl contender. The schedule won't make it easy though.

The Pioneers had one of the most surprising seasons in our history. Coming off of a losing record with an offense in the upper-20s, new management got them to finish in the Top 5 both overall and scording and also improved the defense to 11th overall and Top 5 in scoring. They ended up 12-4 in the regular season and became the first AFC South team to reach the Super Bowl. The funny thing is that the team was still in a rebuilding phase, and it is still putting the finishing touches on it. It is completely unrealistic, especially with the schedule that they have (75% of the teams they face had .500 or better records last season), to expect a similar season this year, especially with the league's most productive WR in Mark Clayton retiring. With a balanced team and depth all over, they should still be firmly in the playoff hunt as well as the division, but with the conference looking a lot more competitive this season, they may once again have to overachieve if they want a repeat trip to the playoffs.

The Jaguars' defense regressed hard to ultimately finish in the 30s after making several changes in the offseason that backfired spectacularly, and that lead to their first losing record under current management. They are still a prime bounceback candidate because of their history, level of talent, and strong draft class. In fact, I expect that their defense finishes is in the teens at the very least. It's the offense that I am worried about. The oft-injured QB Tim Tebow is basically a superior version of Matt Ryan having seen his passer rating drop in each of his six seasons as the starter. Hall of Fame HB Adrian Peterson retired giving way to Devonta Freeman and his 3.4 YPC last season and a lack of depth behind him. OTs Marcus McNeil and Reggie Youngblood and G Ronald Leary combined to play 19 games last season. While most of their schedule is rough, they do get the benefit of having finished last in the division last season and thus get the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals. If they can win all three of those, they have a good shot of getting back to .500 even if I am not enthusiastic about their playoff chances.

Since the league began, offensive player ratings have exploded. We are 14 seasons in, and I for the life of me cannot understand how the Titans are fielding an offense that would have been considered the worst among all teams during the inaugural season. It isn't simply ratings. They are paying three people who claim to be QBs, but they have none on the roster. The third-best HB that this team has employed in the past two seasons is who has actually been the starter, and Melvin Gordon has 958 carries in just two seasons with a sub-4.0 YPC. Mike Evans is the only pass-catcher worth mentioning. They had a starting WR last season averaging just a shade over 10 yards a game. The OL has been sneakily great I will admit, but they have been done a great disservice. The Titans had four picks in the first two rounds in an offensive draft, and they only came away with a FB, and I have been quite vocal about how I feel about FBs from Madden-generated drafts. With the Titans having a pretty brutal schedule, I have to imagine that the offense has very high odds of finishing in the 30s. The defense is not in awful shape, but there's very little to write home about. There's MLB Brian Cushing and the DT duo of Fletcher Cox and Bennie Logan. I guess OLB Tom Burton emerged a little too last season. That's it though. The Titans are simply a bad team, and Madden has deemed them to be the least talented in the league. I expect to see them picking in the Top 5 next offseason.
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AFC Seeding

Playoff Teams
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Denver Broncos
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Portland Express
6. Columbus Pioneers

Playoff Contenders
7. Mexico City Browns
8. New England Patriots
9. Oakland Raiders
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
11.Jacksonville Jaguars
12. Buffalo Bills
13. New York Jets
14. Kansas City Chiefs

Better Luck Next Season
15. Cincinnati Bengals
16. Tennessee Titans

Dark Horse: Jacksonville Jaguars
Dark, Dark Horse: New York Jets
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Ugh, I called them the Washington Hawks again. Please note that the Washington Hawks are the Portland Express.

Also, the Pumpkins have signed DT Frank Okam to a 1 year deal
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The Steelers and their average Wide Receiver OVR of 77 will show you!

I think Jamario could have a HB of the year campaign and my offense would still be bottom 10. I'm probably running out of time to capitalize on my defense being good too. I'd say 3 seasons but that 3rd season I'll get the NFC East so may actually be looking at either this season or next. This year was probably the year I needed to be good but bad cap management stifled that. Maybe I can rebuild quickly but we'll see.

My defense better be actually good this year, considering how many high picks I've been spending on it recently.

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That's a kind writeup! I, too, am worried about my (Colts) offense, but I'm right up against the cap so we'll see. Got a fairly strong O line, so that's somewhat helpful.

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I miss the Washington Hawks

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NFC West

1. St. Louis Rams
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Toronto Wildcats

In a preseason where 80% (pulling that out of my ass) of the league came away unscathed or didn't have a debilitating injury of any kind, the Rams lost two of their best players for half of the season as well as another starter for the same duration. Yet, they should still win the division. They have one of the league's best defenses that is lightyears ahead of the rest of the division, and HB Eddie Lacy helped balance this offense last season. Their schedule is structured oddly, but it might be beneficial to them. The vast majority of games they will play without FS Harrison Smith, RT Robert Gallery, and LG David Diehl will be at home, and when they return, that is when they begin their stretch of almost exclusively away games. I think they make their 11th postseason appearance through a division crown.

I could go in any direction here, but the Seahawks have a rising star in QB Kirk Cousins and an overall offense that is near-elite, so I feel like going with the higher floor option. Last season may have been one to forget, but in the three seasons prior, they did have a non-losing record in each including two playoff apperances. It will ultimately come down to their defense. It is getting up there in years, but there's great players at all three areas, The problem is that they tend to underperform. There's really no reason to believe there will be a great turnaround there, but if they make positive strides on defense and start off strong (the last quarter of the season is tough), they can find themselves back in the playoffs.

I really don't know what the make of the 49ers. QB Kirby Freeman had a resurgent season, but HB Giovanni Bernard has been disappointing outside of his rookie season. They are also paying way too much for WRs, and that has been detrimental to building their defense, which has seen players fading away or having stalled development for many seasons now. Yet, their OL is probably among the Top 5 in the league, and they have a few stars on defense that win games for them. They were also one Week 17 win away from being in the playoffs last season, They can probably hang in the playoff discussion all season long. I just don't know what their ceiling or floor is.

The Wildcats probably have a higher floor than one would expect given they have so many above-average-to-good starters across the team. Yet their lack of stars or an area they perform strongly in makes it hard for them to be a favorite in most games. The loss of FS Eric Reid for half the season exposes the secondary, which could waste a rising DL. After years of being one of the best offenses during the Michael Vick era, the offense has been a disappointment since. The WR corps and OL have virtually stayed the same, but the play of third and second year pros QB Aaron Murray and HB Christian McCaffrey will make the biggest impact. Murray actually owns the league's highest career passer rating among those with at least 250 passing attempts, but it's a small sample size with him as he has only started half the season in his first two years. McCaffrey in a way was the most disappointing of the full-time rookie HBs last season as he paired his low rushing YPC with being a total non-factor in the passing game. The Wildcats didn't really do much to improve this season, and you could argue they have regressed, but if many of their talented-on-paper players finally put it all together, they could be a sneaky division winner.
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NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Las Vegas Pumpkins
3. New York Giants
4. Washington

The Cowboys may have lost two 99 OL and plenty of depth, and their big acquisition in the draft and free agency was TE Tate Casey, but they are still the Cowboys chock full of stars. It is hard to envision them without a winning record or a spot in the playoffs. If there's one thing that could doom them, it is a QB Vince Young injury. He tends to get banged up every season. They used to have players such as Ken Dorsey, Alex Smith, and Johnny Manziel there to back him up, but very poor cap health has left them with former Express 1st round bust Rhett Bomar. Vince Young makes this such a dynamic offense, and they could be a Bottom 10 offense if they have to turn to Bomar for an extended period of time in a schedule that includes their own division of hell, the Rams, Vikings, Colts, and Pioneers.

The Pumpkins lost a pair of front seven guys in the preseason, but neither were among the most important pieces of their defense, so it shouldn't be much of an obstacle in the team's quest to ascend from league average to something better on that side of the ball. The offense still has the superstar combo of QB Chris Leak and WR Ted Ginn. The OL has never been a true strength of theirs, but second-year RT Donovan Smith was named Offensive Rookie of the Year, and they brought in two new starters, so things could be looking up for them there. The player to watch for though is HB Tevin Coleman. The Pumpkins had just two full-time HBs in their existence, Marshall Faulk and Cornell Brockington. Brockington was arguably the best receiving HB in the league, but he was a below-average runner at best. Like most young HBs, Coleman was inefficient in a mostly backup role last season, but if he can establish himself this season as a bonafide runner, then I wouldn't sleep on the Pumpkins as the first non-Cowboys team to win the NFC East since Washington way back in S6.

The Giants were statistically one of the best NFC teams last season but were unable to come up with a win in the final weeks they needed to get in the playoffs. The chokejob was the catalyst for a mini-stripdown that saw them say goodbye to nearly half a dozen starters. That will hurt them but not enough to keep them out of the playoff picture. They may get the underrated AFC South as their non-conference opponent, but they get the much worse NFC South and uncommon games against the Packers and Wildcats. Having come away from the preseason injury-free and starting their first three games at home, the Giants could start out strong putting the onus on other teams to catch up.

Washington has an elite offense, and it showed last season as it propelled them to an 11-5 record and on the cusp of a first round bye. Unfortunately, they suffered injury after injury on the defense, and it just nosedived from about halfway through the season. Then, they lost two of their long-time starters to retirement. With the lack of stars, this young defense (only 2/11 starters are 30 or older), will need to step up in a hurry if they don't to fall behind in the division and subsequently the playoff race. Losing only a backup HB during the preseason is a good start.
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NFC North

1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Chicago Bears
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Detroit Lions

Here is what happened in the offseason for the reigning champions:
- They entered with either the most or one of the most cap spaces in the league
- They lost only one starter to retirement
- They effectively traded TE Travis Kelce and the 32nd pick for SS Jaquiski Tartt and the 5th pick
- They drafted two starters
- They signed two starters in free agency including the underrated HB Dion Lewis, who is a younger version of the lone starter they lost to retirement (hall of famer in my heart Courtney Lewis)
- They signed in one of the best run defensive DTs in Randy Starks after losing William Morrisey for the season
- They are left with the second-most cap space in the league accounting for user cap (roughly $45 mil using in-game cap)

Unlike the AFC, I think the gap between NFC teams barely shrunk, if at all, during the offseason events, so the Vikings have great odds to fall in line with what they've done the previous two seasons where they went a combined 25-7.

The Bears made a flurry of moves to put them on the path to their first postseason appearance. Realistically maybe half, or four of their eight new starters they brought in from outside the organization (I think they promoted two or three others from within), will pan out year 1, but this Bears team on paper looks to be a playoff threat this season. Their defense unexpectedly fell completely apart last season, some regression to the mean and adding much better players in FS Lamarcus Joyner and SS Derek Linde should hopefully see them perform at a level closer to what they experienced in S12. The key here I think will be the offense where they traded for two backups from Portland who excelled in what little they played (QB Tom Savage and HB Jeremy Hill). The offense hasn't finished in the top half of the league since the days of David Carr and Chris Brown. They are on somewhere around their 6th and 4th respectively different starting QB and HB since. If they can get offensive stability somewhere at the skill positions, then I think they have a shot at the playoffs this season. The schedule won't do them any favors as they could start as bad a 1-5, but playoff teams always have to win at least a game or two that they weren't expect to, so we will soon see if this Bears team is ready to stop picking in the Top 10.

The Packers were less than five minutes away from being in the Super Bowl in S12. Just one season later they went from selecting 30th to 3rd, which almost certainly is the largest year-to-year difference that we've had and maybe ever will have. The culprit wasn't the defense which was still good even after they had a mini-firesale mid-season. HB Carnell Williams, who retired after S12, turned out to be irreplacable as a now-stagnant running game in the most run-heavy offense in the league was a recipe for complete disaster. While they brought in a lot of depth and potential future starters, the starting offense is virtually identical to the disappointing one from last season. They have #3 overall pick OT Laremy Tunsil taking over at RT, and backup HB Isaiah Crowell now gets his first crack as the starter. The offense could improve some, but this doesn't inspire confidence that they will make a quick turnaround. If the defense holds tight, and the offense does way better than I expect, then they could take advantage of a mostly favorable schedule to a surprise playoff appearance a la Patriots S12 and Lions S13.

While other teams had offseasons to forget, the Lions may have my vote for the most disappointing offseason of them all. The Vikings and Bears both made considerable efforts to improve their team, and the Packers brought in a ton of bodies who will be the top backup, or a starter in a few cases. The Lions had to mount a massive second half comeback to get into the playoffs in S12. They absolutely could not depend on that happening again, and they absolutely had to make an effort in the offseason. Instead, they elected not to go after high-end players in RFA that fit their needs, take advantage of a draft board that fit their needs, or go after a robust free agent class that fit their needs. The Lions are not the Cowboys or Dolphins. They cannot afford to be passive. The schedule isn't super tough, but they are already without their best defensive player for most of the season (MLB Bryan Vinson). I feel like this won't end well.
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NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Anaheim Lightning

While rookie QB Patrick Mahomes not winning the job out of the preseason (MMX is certainly able to change that if he wishes) does mean the offense has a lower ceiling, I'm really feeling the Falcons this year. They should have won the division last season, and through their gains and losses, I feel like they are better this season. The schedule includes the NFC East, but their divisional foes have to play them too, and I feel like the Falcons match up better with each of them than the others do. It starts with the defense. While management perplexingly decided to retain blah WR Jordan Shipley over a great DE in Doug Worthington (he signed with the rival Bucs too), the defense as a whole should be better this season in adding two studs via trade in DT Clifton Dickson and SS Lewis Baker. They also signed another in free agency with FS T.J. McDonald. An under-the-radar series of moves was when they had to work around the cap by cutting and replacing players. They did so while simultaneously improving the team's depth. Regardless of what QB is starting, and if second-year HB David Johnson immediately shows that he's an improvement over Lonta Hobbs, I feel as if the high defensive floor and general level of depth gives the Falcons a leg up on the division.

The Bucs defense really let them down last season as they suffered just their third losing season. Not accustomed to this, management decided to use nearly all of their draft picks to grab established players and grabbed a 91 TE, 83 DT, and 99 K. They also went out and signed four additional starters. The offense was already the best in the division, but now that they had studs under center, in the backfield, along the line, and out wide, the floor and ceiling for this unit is now pretty high. Again though, it will come down to the defense. I'm not super high on them making a massive turnaround, but I will expect them to do considerably better than their showing last season. How much of an improvement though will determine how much a playoff contender they will be. They have a chance to make an early statement as they play full-strength at home against the Falcons.

For a long time, the Panthers were one of the most predictable teams. They had an above-average defense, and a poor offense. Now though, the reverse could happen. They imported WR Robert Meachem who is an improvement over the perennially disappointing Derek Hagan. While they passed on the better options, they did sign HB LeSean McCoy who should be an improvement over Reggie Bush running-wise. I think there's a chance that the offense could approach league-average range. Unfortunately, I am down on the defense. Just two seasons ago, this DL was one of the most elite in the game with Abdul Hodge, Luis Castillo, Claude Wroten, and Callahan Bright. Now only one remains, and only one was from retirement. They also replaced an above-average starting LB with a poor, first round disappointment. Combine that with the loss of Hall of Fame CB Adam Jones, and this defense looks really suspect, especially in run defense where they have to face two of the most efficient HBs in the league four teams in Matt Forte and Kestahn Moore. They also have to face the NFC East, which they don't match up well with any team as well as the Rams and Vikings because they won the division last season. If there's a way for the team to be in playoff contention this season, it will have to come through the offense, which is something that hasn't been the case since Daunte Culpepper was leading the team.

In my heart, the Lightning are at least my #2 choice for the division, but I am tired of picking them to win, so maybe if I pick them to finish last, they will end the league's second-longest playoff drought. QB Blake Bortles was great his first four games, had a terrible middle half, and then ended the season a strong note. He ultimately finished in the middle of the pack in passer rating, but level of inconsistency was alarming. It sucks that an offense with the OL that they have and two stars at skill positions in HB Kestahn Moore and WR Antonio Brown is still struggling to put points on the board with unreliable QB play. The defense though finished just outside the Top 10, and looks to be in even better shape this season as they replaced the weaker links with rookies with upside. Their first game is at home against the high-powered Seahawks, so that's a good test to see if this is a defense that is still on the rise. For a team with no injuries as of now, you would have liked for their bye to be a little further in the season, but what can you do. On paper, this team should be competing for the division, and given how everyone except the Bucs were vying for the division until the final weeks last season, they probably still can, but I am just tired of having my heart broken, so I will temper my expectations.
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NFC Seeding

Playoff Teams
1. Minnesota Vikings
2. St. Louis Rams
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. Las Vegas Pumpkins
6. Seattle Seahawks

Playoff Contenders
7. Chicago Bears
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9. New York Giants
10. Washington
11. Green Bay Packers
12. San Francisco 49ers
13. Carolina Panthers
14. Anaheim Lightning
15. Toronto Wildcats

Better Luck Next Season
16. Detroit Lions

Dark Horse: Seattle Seahawks
Dark, Dark Horse: Chicago Bears (again)
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Offensive Rookie of the Year Predictions
1. Bengals HB Derrick Henry
2. Express QB Jacoby Brissett
3. Seahawks WR Amari Cooper
4. Colts TE Evan Engram
5. Cowboys HB Ty Montgomery

Defensive Rookie of the Year Predictions
1. Lightning MLB Telvin Smith
2. Jaguars OLB Dante Fowler
3. Browns MLB Damien Wilson
4. Falcons DE Terrance Fede
5. Giants SS Will Parks
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To Do:
- Fully update spreadsheet for Panthers transaction and maybe Pumpkins
- Create new topic
- Figute out when I want to start the season
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Jamario clearly has the KCF seal of approval on not getting injured for Ajayi not to be a ORotY candidate!

I can't even blame you for picking us third we are choke artists lately.

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I'm thinking about doing games Tuesdays and Thursdays this season and Week 1 starting the 17th
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We are almost there!

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