Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 309: Putin a lifetime bounty

(+) Yeah! (+)

lol well yeah Map 1 was basically using the current polling that has Biden up double-digits nationally and even leading in some of the states I kept red.

That was the "if somehow time froze and we just advanced 4 months and got dumped out on election day here's what the polling indicates" map.

unfortunately time does not work like that so I think we're going to trend towards Map 2.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

a job provides more than just money, though. there's also factors like social interaction/having something to do/pride/etc.

i could be wrong but i find it hard to believe that everyone who lost their job is like "well as long as i get (more) money i don't give a crap."

Yeah, but under the scenario of herd immunity in 60 days, within 120 days the jobs will almost all come back. We were at a 50-year low for unemployment before this. Trump is going to brag and brag and brag about how he brought the jobs back in only 6 months while it took Obama 8 years and even after that unemployment still wasn't as low.

What's dangerous for Trump is the scenario where in 120 days the jobs aren't back because the virus is still a threat. Basically Trump placed a very big bet on the economy recovering by November.


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Corrik7 posted...

1st map is likelier the outcome. Ohio goes red. Florida, NC, Arizona go blue. PA Mich and Wisconsin blue.

I mean Map 1 -> Map 2 actually moves Ohio to Red. I do push FL/NC from Lean D to Toss-Up there but that doesn't preclude them going to Biden just that I think those are the closest states. (AZ is blue on both but I downgrade from Leans to Tilt for Map 2)

Basically:

Map 1 Battleground: OH/GA/IA (Tilts either way; I didn't label anything pure Tossup on Map 1)
Map 2 Battleground: FL/NC/AZ/OH (Tossup + Tilts)

OH is kind of the fulcrum for the two maps. In Map 1 it's perhaps the closest contest. In Map 2 it's a stretch goal.

Neither map is good for Trump but in Map 1 it's basically impossible but on Map 2 he just needs to win the tossups and snag WI and AZ. It's certainly doable.

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Anyway, as fun as playing with the maps is (I mean that genuinely) switching gears because this is so fucked up:

https://twitter.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1280207487573069827

ICE announces to students here on student visas that if their schools goes online-only for the fall they must leave the country (or transfer to somewhere with in-person instruction during a pandemic) (FWIW, the twitter thread explains that blocking online-only was part of the regulations but not making an exception given the situation is cruel)

(Also we're in the beginning of an eviction crisis)

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Was just gonna post that myself.

LOL fuckin #MAGA.

If the schools don't like that, maybe they should grow some balls and reopen. COVID is no threat to healthy young people.

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Yes because the only people at schools are young ones.

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SmartMuffin posted...

COVID is no threat to healthy young people.

god i wish i lived in your dipshit fantasy realm

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TheRock1525 posted...

Yes because the only people at schools are young ones.

If the older professors are too scared, they should retire. Thanks to the PHD glut there will instantly be 500+ qualified candidates ready, willing, and able to replace them.

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Kenri posted...

god i wish i lived in your dipshit fantasy realm

look up a few statistics and you can!

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It may not be a threat to young healthy people but young healthy people often have older and at risk family members, SMuffin

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ExThaNemesis posted...

It may not be a threat to young healthy people but young healthy people often have older and at risk family members, SMuffin

Then they should probably stay away from them, until they've already gotten and recovered from COVID, which will probably happen before thanksgiving break.

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ExThaNemesis posted...

It may not be a threat to young healthy people but young healthy people often have older and at risk family members, SMuffin

Muffin is literally incapable of empathy. He doesn't give a shit about anybody but himself.

Even when he made up his "woe is me" story about covid delaying his wedding, he admitted he didn't even want the wedding, but his fiancee was calling him at night crying about it. But he wasn't upset that she was upset, he was upset that she was waking him up.

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SMuffin got a fiancee?!

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SmartMuffin posted...

Then they should probably stay away from them,

yeah, all young people in schools should just start living on their own. sounds like a very reasonable request.

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SmartMuffin posted...

look up a few statistics and you can!

sorry, i don't have access to dipshit fantasy realm statistics

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Jakyl25 posted...

Yeah thats some bullshit by Harvard

I mean I understand where you're coming from (students are definitely getting a worse education over Zoom, and Harvard in particular could definitely tide itself over with money from its endowment), but the vast majority of universities are in a huge jam here. Their costs are pretty much fixed (they still have to pay all of the professors, they don't save any money on not using rooms, etc) unless they're gonna start laying off a ton of people. Meanwhile, a decent fraction of students are likely going to take the semester off because they feel unsafe going to in person classes and/or they (reasonably) don't feel like they're getting as much out of online classes. There's no good solution here (besides the Federal government bailing them out, but they certainly can't count on that).

xp1337 posted...

Anyway, as fun as playing with the maps is (I mean that genuinely) switching gears because this is so fucked up:

https://twitter.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1280207487573069827

ICE announces to students here on student visas that if their schools goes online-only for the fall they must leave the country (or transfer to somewhere with in-person instruction during a pandemic) (FWIW, the twitter thread explains that blocking online-only was part of the regulations but not making an exception given the situation is cruel)

(Also we're in the beginning of an eviction crisis)

Fucking disgusting.

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ExThaNemesis posted...

SMuffin got a fiancee?!

Who knows. Everything else he says his bullshit, so that probably is, too.

Which means he can't even fake empathy in his own bullshit story.

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ExThaNemesis posted...

SMuffin got a fiancee?!

I've been wanting to ask about this for a while but haven't found an appropriate avenue yet - so thanks!

Apart from politics, Muffin's entire B8 identity consisted of him making topics about how pathetic and woeful he was, particularly with women. The fact that he found a life partner is a huge deal and it's kind of a bummer that he's continued to post about politics (and seemingly from a worse perspective) while he's not giving us any details about the only OTHER aspect of his life that he's known for here. This would be like me from 2009 finding and marrying a redhead named Ariel and SAYING NOTHING TO THE BOARD.

So spill the fucking details Smuffin, politics topic or not. How in the blue hell did you get a wife.

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i have muffin on facebook. can confirm that he does have a fiancee.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

i have muffin on facebook. can confirm that he does have a fiancee.

surprised you still got him on fb but axed me!!

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ExThaNemesis posted...

surprised you still got him on fb but axed me!!

Ain't nobody got me on Facebook besides Ben.

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ExThaNemesis posted...

surprised you still got him on fb but axed me!!

well, i assume you didn't meet him in person and run a music topic with him for close to a decade >_>

at least you presumably still have ulti on FB, though!!

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So spill the fucking details Smuffin, politics topic or not. How in the blue hell did you get a wife.

Got lucky I guess, I dunno. I think it's true that once you hit 30 (and once the women do too) then being a responsible guy with a good job and no criminal record, kids, or face tattoos all of a sudden starts mattering a lot more than it ever did when you were young and sexless.

b8 even tried to convince me to dump her one time and I totally tried to do it but she didn't let me off the hook easy so I kept trying and here we are.

In any case, whenever I talk about my personal life people literally mock me and try and make me feel like shit about it for years, mostly making up lies (like SEP did above), so why should I want to share, exactly?

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SmartMuffin posted...

mostly making up lies (like SEP did above),

How is it a lie when it's literally what you said?

actually its more that im tired of getting woken up in the middle of the night by my fiance crying because we had to cancel our wedding, but thanks for your concern

You then went on to make many posts about how neither of you even want the wedding other than you feel obligated to have it because her parents paid for it. You also went on, when asked "Would you rather her cry because her parents are dead from covid," that, yes, you'd rather her parents take the chance of getting it so you can just get the wedding over with.

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Nearly all of that is a lie.

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SmartMuffin posted...

Nearly all of that is a lie.

...Why would you challenge it when I've already shown the willingness to get receipts.

the shitty thing is, she doesn't even care that much
if it weren't for the fact that her parents already put down a ton of money in deposits with various vendors (who are all saying "we're happy to reschedule you for later... but no refunds/cancellations" we probably would just go to the courthouse and elope

Her parents paid for all of this. We feel an obligation to ensure that their money is well spent. Deposits have been paid and the vendors are not offering refunds.

The population fatality rate from coronavirus currently stands at less than 0.1%. I'd probably take the chance that her parents have a less than 1-in-1000 chance of dying from coronavirus in exchange for my wedding, yeah. My parents too.

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Your interpretation of those comments is radically and wildly dishonest. The quotes do not match your description at all.

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Also why the fuck do you have all of my posts on file? This was creepy back when Ulti did it in 2013 and is even more pathetic now. Normal people we encounter in day to day life are quite sympathetic to us for having to go through all of this. It's only on b8 that I'm met with open mockery for daring to feel bad about having our dream wedding derailed because of a government and media driven freakout over basically nothing.

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The entire topic is on LFAQs, dude. We all saw it. I'm not being "wildly dishonest" about anything. Your initial complaint was "I'm tired of getting woken up over my fiance crying about canceling our wedding."

The topic expressed surprise that you'd even want a traditional wedding. You replied with posts such as those above saying that you don't, but it's already been paid for by her parents.

And then the last post I quote is your exact reply to the "Would you rather her cry because her parents are dead from covid" post.

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SmartMuffin posted...

Also why the fuck do you have all of my posts on file?

GMUN saves all of the topics on his site (except the mental health topics)


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SmartMuffin posted...

It's only on b8 that I'm met with open mockery for daring to feel bad about having our dream wedding derailed because of a government and media driven freakout over basically nothing.

Because you never once described it as a "dream" wedding. You literally said you were only having it because her parents already paid and you felt obligated to make sure their money was well spent. Multiple times.

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You literally said you were only having it because her parents already paid and you felt obligated to make sure their money was well spent.

That is NOT what I said. And it doesn't even make the slightest amount of common sense. Why would we have set it all up in the first place and asked her parents to pay for it if we didn't want it?

The point was that given everything that had happened, including the constant stress and uncertainty of having to go through months of not knowing if it would be cancelled or not, then officially having it cancelled by government order, we were ready to just be done with it and go elope, but reconsidered because we wanted to be good stewards of her parents financial resources.

That's not the same thing as saying we "never wanted it." We absolutely wanted it. It was going to be great. All of my family was going to come in from out of state. That's all gone now. What we will now have in exchange will be a pale imitation of what was originally all planned. If that. It seems somewhat likely that Abbott is going to put his pussy-hat on and order a brand new shutdown any day now. So our second rescheduled date might get cancelled again. In which case the few guests and wedding party members who have stuck with us will probably cancel out as well and we'll be left with our parents standing in our kitchen. But I guess I'm a horrible person for being upset about that huh? I guess if that happened to you, you'd just smile and nod and say "WELL IF IT SAVES JUST ONE LIFE" right?

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132000 deaths

"basically nothing"

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"I'm a horrible person" - SmartMuffin


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And that, ExTha, is why I don't talk much about my personal life anymore.

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SmartMuffin posted...

That is NOT what I said. And it doesn't even make the slightest amount of common sense. Why would we have set it all up in the first place and asked her parents to pay for it if we didn't want it?

The point was that given everything that had happened, including the constant stress and uncertainty of having to go through months of not knowing if it would be cancelled or not, then officially having it cancelled by government order, we were ready to just be done with it and go elope, but reconsidered because we wanted to be good stewards of her parents financial resources.

That's not the same thing as saying we "never wanted it." We absolutely wanted it. It was going to be great. All of my family was going to come in from out of state. That's all gone now. What we will now have in exchange will be a pale imitation of what was originally all planned. If that. It seems somewhat likely that Abbott is going to put his pussy-hat on and order a brand new shutdown any day now. So our second rescheduled date might get cancelled again. In which case the few guests and wedding party members who have stuck with us will probably cancel out as well and we'll be left with our parents standing in our kitchen. But I guess I'm a horrible person for being upset about that huh? I guess if that happened to you, you'd just smile and nod and say "WELL IF IT SAVES JUST ONE LIFE" right?

Okay, well this would have been nice to say, you know, when we were actually asking you about it. You didn't. At all.

Jakyl:

Honestly Im most surprised that Muffin would marry someone who genuinely cares about the pageantry of a traditional wedding

Your direct reply:

the shitty thing is, she doesn't even care that much
if it weren't for the fact that her parents already put down a ton of money in deposits with various vendors (who are all saying "we're happy to reschedule you for later... but no refunds/cancellations" we probably would just go to the courthouse and elope

Inviso:

That makes it seem like your finances are so spectacular that the cost of cancelling this wedding isn't even a drop in the bucket for you

Your direct reply:

Her parents paid for all of this. We feel an obligation to ensure that their money is well spent. Deposits have been paid and the vendors are not offering refunds.

Like, I'm fully willing to apologize if you 100%, legitimately, truthfully were looking forward to this dream wedding, and had to postpone it/cancel it/whatever. But you, in no way, actually expressed that, and continued to not express it even as people continued to question you on it.

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HashtagSEP posted...

Okay, well this would have been nice to say, you know, when we were actually asking you about it. You didn't. At all.

Jakyl:

Your direct reply:

Inviso:

Your direct reply:

Like, I'm fully willing to apologize if you 100%, legitimately, truthfully were looking forward to this dream wedding, and had to postpone it/cancel it/whatever. But you, in no way, actually expressed that, and continued to not express it even as people continued to question you on it.

I don't think you are reading intent well there.

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Muffin has made his disdain for the pageantry of traditional weddings known numerous times before in the past, which is why Jakyl made the post he did. So when Muffin replies with "Well, she doesn't care that much," why would we infer that he now suddenly cares?

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He didn't really care for them but his fiancee wanted one so they booked it and spent the money because he wants her to have what she wants / makes it his own dream himself for her. It being cancelled and refunded wouldn't be the worst because with everything going on in the world his fiancee doesn't care THAT much (with all the world situation qualifiers) and would just elope. However, they want to have the wedding because it was her dream (in a normal world) and they won't have refund and cancel (the vendors) but simply move dates so they feel obligated to spend the money well. His fiancee cries about the wedding because she wanted one but the Coronavirus things in life are making it difficult. However, she also feels the obligation regarding the spending the money well on the wedding because her parents already spent the money.

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Maybe if many of you weren't so focused on making someone feel like a piece of shit because they wanted to have their wedding and picking out little things to try and blast him for and make him out to be a monster, you would have been able to piece it together.

Like, you are telling the dude he is wrong about his own life he lives right now. Instead of saying, I must have misunderstood. Lol.

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Literally none of the inferences you're making came across at ALL in the extremely self-centered and caustic string of posts Muffin made addressing the subject. But it is good to know that you're capable of understanding that there is a difference between inferred meaning and literal meaning of words.

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Inviso posted...

Literally none of the inferences you're making came across at ALL in the extremely self-centered and caustic string of posts Muffin made addressing the subject. But it is good to know that you're capable of understanding that there is a difference between inferred meaning and literal meaning of words.

"He is self-centered. Not me who can't just admit maybe I misunderstood what he was meaning to say".

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I think any true believer in the market would understand that private entities have the right to deny their goods and services for any reason, and feel blessed to live in a country where freedom allows you to agree to terms and conditions that result in your money not being allowed to be refunded.

In addition, you could always just move to a country you don't hate.

Corrik7 posted...

Like, you are telling the dude he is wrong about his own life he lives right now. Instead of saying, I must have misunderstood. Lol.

No, I'm telling the dude there is a reason everybody assumed he didn't care about the wedding due to how he posted about it in response to questions. I literally even said I'll apologize, but that his posts most certainly did not convey what he apparently thought he was conveying.

Maybe if he had started with "My dream wedding got canceled/postponed and it sucks," then people would have gotten it right away, instead of leading with "I'm tired of getting woken up by my fiancee."

I'm flat out admitting a misunderstanding is possible. It's just a misunderstanding driven by his own posts.

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yeah, if everyone in the topic misunderstood what muffin meant, i think the conclusion should be "muffin could have done a better job explaining what he meant." not "you guys misread what he said."

jakyl always approaches a post fairly and without bias against the person who posted it, so if he's among the people who wrongly interpreted muffin's posts, that's saying something.

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trump should stop watching television

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