Board 8 > ~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis! - Part 2*~

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charmander6000
05/23/20 12:27:24 PM
#151:


Took a quick look at the Board Wiki, the series/game with a worse winless record than TWEWY is Zero Wing thanks to CATS' 0-9 record

Also beating TWEWY is Silent Hill who is 0-8 due to its series (0-1), Silent Hill 2 (0-3), Pyramid Head (0-3) and James Sunderland (0-1).

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PostContestUlti
05/23/20 2:30:55 PM
#152:


Division 3 Semifinal: (1)Super Smash Bros. Ultimate vs (5)Marvel's Spider-Man

(1)Smash Ultimate - 16611 [63.61%]
(5)Spiderman - 9504 [36.39%]
Total Votes - 26115
Prediction Percentage - 52.13%

Having a day to relax and unwind after the insanity that Bloodborne and Resident Evil 2 gave us was nice. Division 3 is just what the doctor ordered. Smash was guaranteed to beat Spiderman, and Mario Odyssey was guaranteed to beat Shovel Knight. There would be no surprises here; all that mattered was the final percentages.

Depending on how you feel about Spiderman's strength, this was either par for the course or a Smash underperformance. We'll get to this more next round, but this was a mixture of Spiderman being stronger than everyone thought and a Smash underperformance. You don't undershoot your oracle consensus by 6% without something weird going on, and I'm of the belief that Smash has gotten to the point where it gets anti-voted.

Stingers stole my thunder a bit here, and that's okay, but I truly believe the hardcore Smash nuts are the single worst fanbase in all of entertainment and it's the cause for all these underperformances. I would legitimately and truly rather hang out with ''anyone'' else, and my biggest regret in my entire gaming life was ever sticking up for these people. I went back and reread some of my old stuff, and the Brawl fans were right. I should have seen it back then. It's not that Brawl is the better game, because it's just not, but Brawl represented the better fanbase. They're actually able to play a Smash game and have fun. Hardcore tourneydouche Smash idiots sucked the fun out of this series a long time ago. To put this in Board 8 terms, Nick is a cool guy that any of us would love to be around. He was on the Brawl side. That should be enough really.

Is Smash crazy strong on our site? Of course it is. But there is a growing subset of people who will hate that fanbase and that series for life, and will never vote for it. It's not ''all'' of the fanbase, but it's enough of them.

There are only so many stories like this people can see before they finally say fuck it and sour on these idiots:

https://www.kotaku.com.au/2018/08/bayonetta-players-battled-through-the-boos-at-evo-2018s-smash-4-finals/ (not mentioned is the two Bayonetta players being doxxed, harassed, and being sent death threats despite only being teenagers)

https://www.polygon.com/2019/4/22/18510985/smash-bros-hungrybox-crab-assault-pound-2019-video

There are only so many videos like this people can see before they finally bail on taking Smash seriously:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kT0xHN65ExA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KH74j3zRm3A

There are only so many stinky weirdos with no social skills one can be around before they're done. Did you guys know that these losers tried to get cheering banned at tournaments? You know, like the nutjobs who think clapping should be banned? There was a big movement for it. Did you know these morons once tried claiming Brawl Meta Knight is more broken than Street Fighter 2 Akuma, because "the esteemed Smash community" says so? The word esteemed belongs no where near these people.

I could go on with countless examples and talk about this for weeks. Smash started as a fun party game. What it's turned into is anything but, and I have a vicious disgust for people who ruin things I enjoy. If every tourneycrab acted like Stingers, Zero, or Hungrybox it would be one thing. Most act like Inui, and if you play Smash in ''any way'' other than "OMG GOTTA PREP FOR TOURNAMENTS GUYZZZZ" they have actual manic fits.

I don't blame anyone for anti-voting Smash games in these contests. I don't blame anyone for hating its fanbase. I just wish I had seen it sooner. I still love the series to death, but I have to separate the games from the fanbase to enjoy Smash games anymore. You Brawl fans were right all along.

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Nintendogs
05/23/20 2:39:45 PM
#153:


PostContestUlti posted...
It was also more proof of how ''stacked'' 2017 was. Presented without comment so as not to step on the toes of Wall's project: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_in_video_games
Breath of the Wild lost to Edith Finch at the BAFTA awards? OUCH
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snake_5036
05/23/20 2:42:35 PM
#154:


More evidence that the founding fathers were right to break away from Britain, tbh

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LinkMarioSamus
05/23/20 2:54:57 PM
#155:


Maybe Smash was never really that strong in the first place? Melee has never really done anything of note in these contests ever since terminating StarCraft's run back in '04 (discounting controversial rallies), though admittedly a lot of that is due to Melee being on a bit of an island strength-wise with like only a few other games on a similar level. Otherwise it cleanly beats most of the field and just as easily loses to the big dogs like Mario 64, Ocarina, FFVII, Chrono Trigger, RBY, and similar stuff.

Maybe Melee vs. FFVI could be a debatable match? FFVI only got 54% on *Wind Waker*, though I get the feeling WW is a bit of a beast hiding in plain sight and we're through it being "hated" (which might even have been overstated to begin with, game always performed well in popularity polls and such). Yeah I think I pick FFVI to squeak that one out by like 51-52%.

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ZeroSignal620
05/23/20 3:36:28 PM
#156:


Took a while, but here's all the series to not win anything/advance in contest history. I even took spinoffs into consideration (Drakengard, whkle having Caim, eventually leads to Nier).

Hopefully I didn't miss anything

Bubble Bobble
Parappa the Rappa
Q Bert
Virtua Fighter
Mystical Ninja
Oddworld
Tekken
Dragon's Lair
Command and Conquer
Legacy of Kain
Punch-Out
Pitfall
Zero Wing
Mr. Driller
Syphon Filter
Space Channel 5
Super Monkey Ball
Conker's Bad Fur Day
Pikmin
.hack
Phantasy Star
Duck Hunt
Adventure
River City Ransom
Galaga
Secret of Mana
Shining Force
The Simpsons
Gunstar Heroes
DDR
Panzer Dragoon
Nights
Earthworm Jim
Driver
Jak and Daxter
Sly Cooper
Viewtiful Joe
Silent Hill
Lunar
Shadow Hearts
Grim Fandango
Hitman
Katamari Damacy
Civilization
Star Ocean
Harvest Moon
Madden
Beyond Good and Evil
Valkyrie Profile
Where is Carmen Sandiego?
Prince of Persia
Elite Beat Agents
Kid Icarus
Wii Sports
Resistance
The World Ends With You
Psychonauts
Lost Odyssey
Braid
Guitar Hero
No More Heroes
Professor Layton
Ice Climbers
Space Invaders
Oregon Trail
SimCity
Tecmo Super Bowl
Battletoads
Crystalis
Streets of Rage
Lufia
Left 4 Dead
Brutal Legend
Infamous
Rock Band
Fable
Legend of Dragoon
WWF
Dead Space
Tony Hawk
Jet Grind Radio
Baldur's Gate
Plants vs Zombies
Timesplitters
Eternal Darkness
The Sims
Advance Wars
ICO
I Wanna Be the Guy
Guilty Gear
Wolfenstein
Binding of Isaac
Alan Wake
SMT: Nocturne
Lollipop Chainsaw
Touhou
Zero Escape
Chester
Fate/Stay
Walking Dead
VVVVVV
Commander Keen
BlazBlue
Deadly Premonition
Gravity Rush
Ni No Kuni
Ghost Trick
Dynasty Warriors
Far Cry
Bit Runner
Dishonored
Recettear
Final Fight
Angry Birds
Planescape: Torment
Age of Empires
Life is Strange
Splatoon
Destiny
Doki Doki
Shantae
Hyperdimension Neptunia
Legend of Heroes
A Hat in Time
Danganronpa
Outer Worlds
Edith Finch
Bravely Default
Bloodstained
Fortnite
Inside
Dota
Dragon's Dogma
Baba is You
XCOM 2
FTL
Death Stranding
South Park
Obra Dinn
Stanley Parable
Talos Principle
Heavy Rain
Ys
Slay the Spire
Disco Elysium
Dying Light
Hotline Miami
Dragon Ball
The Witness
Dead Cells
Terraria
Crusader Kings
Subnautica
Crypt of the Necrodancer
Night in the Woods
Celeste
Hearthstone (may not count cause it has connection to Warcraft)

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ZeroSignal620
05/23/20 3:41:12 PM
#157:


Spiderman had a good run this contest, and the game was Marvel's answer to Arkham. Arkham is still better, but Spidey was still a great adventure.

As for the Smash Bros debate, there are things Melee does better, and there are things Brawl does better. With my annual tournaments, Melee tore through 2001 and Wii U dominated 2014. Ultimate only had one challenge, which was God of War in the 2018 finals.

The losing Smash titles?

SSB - Stunned by Spyro 2 in 99 semifinals
SSB for 3DS - Loses to Danganronpa in 2014 round 3, the only Smash game to miss the semifinals.
Brawl - At the peak of my tournament's popularity, Brawl loses to Persona 4 in the 2008 finals.

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Whiskey_Nick
05/23/20 3:44:02 PM
#158:


Bubble Bobble deserves better

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Fiop
05/23/20 4:54:18 PM
#160:


Some initial thoughts for strongest winless series from that list:

Punch Out
Duck Hunt
Secret of Mana
Streets of Rage
Bravely Default

The first two shouldve boosted from Smash, at least. Not sure if SoM And SoR are strong but they are long dormant series which got recent releases.

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UltimaterializerX
05/23/20 5:49:16 PM
#161:


Silent Hill and Duck Hunt stand out.

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_SecretSquirrel
05/23/20 5:56:58 PM
#162:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Silent Hill and Duck Hunt stand out.
Duck Hunt really isn't that surprising. Divisions by era was very convenient for it to make contests, since it would easily get more nominations than a lot of its contemporaries from that time, but then it probably gets stuck against something with a bigger name that would SFF it to the ground, like Mario. It's only real shot was Donkey Kong in 04, and it just couldn't get the job done.

These days, it's just not going to get the nominations to make a 128 games bracket sans restrictions. Maybe if we expanded Game of the 90s to something like '85-'99, it might have a chance, but I opted to push for '90-'99 when suggesting a retro contest because I always feared we'd get more bad fodder from that time period than we would get games worth the trouble.

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PostContestUlti
05/23/20 6:12:04 PM
#163:


Division 3 Semifinal: (6)Shovel Knight vs (2)Super Mario Odyssey

(6)Shovel Knight - 7104 [27.19%]
(2)Super Mario Odyssey - 19021 [72.81%]
Total Votes - 26125
Prediction Percentage - 51.49%

One is an accident, two is a problem, three is a trend. This made three rounds in a row where Super Mario Odyssey looked better than Smash Ultimate. We all knew Shovel Knight was never going to make a match out of this and was simply happy to make it this far, but Mario beat it so badly that there was legitimate cause for concern if you picked Smash Ultimate to win this division.

Round 1

-Smash 83, Tekken 7 17
-Mario 86, Mortal Kombat 11 14

Round 2

-Smash 64, Link Between Worlds 36
-Mario 71, Devil May Cry 5 29

Round 3

-Smash 64, Spiderman 36
-Mario 73, Shovel Knight 27

It's almost impossible to look at these results and think Mario wasn't the stronger game, not to mention what happened in the series contest: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2451-mushroom-division-final-super-mario-bros-vs-super-smash-bros

I guess you could still favor Smash if you take the Zelda result super seriously, and think Tekken 7 is stronger than Mortal Kombat 11, ''and'' think Spiderman is undervalued. Those are all possible, but I think the explanation for next round is much easier than all that.

We should take a second to give Shovel Knight some props instead of mere passing this off as a Cinderella run ending. It was the only indie game to make it into round 3; none of the other 287 indie games in this bracket pulled that off. Mad props to Shovel Knight for making it into the final 32. That is not an easy accomplishment at all.

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Nintendogs
05/23/20 6:19:44 PM
#164:


Only a little over half of predictions thought Mario Odyssey was going to make the division final. Did some people think Undertale was going to make another run?
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Arti
05/23/20 6:24:35 PM
#165:


Only 21.58% of people had Octopath Traveler winning, and 18.86% had Shovel Knight winning two matches. So it's definitely possible.

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NowItsAngeTime
05/23/20 6:25:35 PM
#166:


PostContestUlti posted...
I still love the series to death, but I have to separate the games from the fanbase to enjoy Smash games anymore.

Right here with you man

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snake_5036
05/23/20 6:35:02 PM
#167:


Nintendogs posted...
Did some people think Undertale was going to make another run?
A lot of people, actually. If only they looked at the polls where 20-25% of people on this site said they would spitefully never play it just because of the 2015 contest, and another 30-50% of people said it doesn't interest them. Then add in anti-rally sentiment on top of all that.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6182-did-the-best-game-ever-contest-convince-you-to-try-undertale
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6456-one-year-later-have-you-ever-played-undertale

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PostContestUlti
05/23/20 7:01:54 PM
#168:


Division 4 Semifinal: (1)Grand Theft Auto V vs (5)Persona 4 Golden

(1)Grand Theft Auto 5 - 13414 [48.93%]
(5)Persona 4 Golden - 14000 [51.07%]
Total Votes - 27414
Prediction Percentage - 14.01%

This was the first round 3 match featuring a Grand Theft Auto game or character in 17 (!!) years, since way back in 2003 when Tommy Vercetti beat Kite and Donkey Kong before bowing out to Mega Man. In any other contest, round 2 has been the hard cap. GTA has a very dubious contest history on this site, and though it has a massive fanbase, very few people in that fanbase are on this web site. It's an interesting dichotomy that's led to GTA never truly scoring blowouts, but never really getting blown out either, all while occasionally being on the receiving end of some hilarious upsets.

Here are the famous ones:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2067-mushroom-division-round-1-ness-vs-carl-johnson
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4094-southeast-division-round-1-pokemon-emerald-vs-grand-theft
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4150-south-division-round-2-golden-sun-vs-gta-san-andreas
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6140-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-gta-san-andreas-vs-chrono

Japanese RPGs and anti-voting are the GTA kyptonite, apparently. Oh and while a lot of people won't consider Pokemon RSE over GTA4 an upset, a lot of people were floored that anyone cared about a Pokemon game past generation 2.

But leading up to this match, GTA5 just felt different. It's become very clear that on this site, Grand Theft Auto 5 is the one game in that series with true, legitimate strength. Yes it eats anti-votes, but it's still able to buck a lot of the trends that killed GTA in the past. Given Persona 4 Golden is a Vita title that struggled mightily with Red Dead Redemption, it looked as if this year, GTA might ''finally'' be able to break through the concrete ceiling, break into and through round 3, and maybe even win a division. It was right there for the taking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBHnP2wXR5Q

It's hard to imagine Grand Theft Auto getting a better opportunity than this one, guys, and it ''still'' didn't happen. I know the final result looks close, but this match was never in doubt at any point. Persona 4 won the board vote, and though it built up a lead extremely slowly with all of the usual bumps, stalls, and minor cuts, Persona 4 was able to take that board vote and methodically march to the finish line with a 600 vote win. There were only two points during the entire match where it looked like Grand Theft Auto 5 might make a game of it. Once was late in the evening when it shaved almost 150 votes off of a 400 vote lead, and the second time was the morning vote. Persona 4 had a lead of just over 600 at the time, and GTA5 managed to shave almost 200 votes away.

Under normal circumstances there would be drama there, but this is Grand Theft Auto against a Board 8 darling. Even if this match got super close, there is no chance Board 8 wouldn't have rallied their balls off to hand this win to Persona. The end result was Persona 4 moving on, and Grand Theft Auto having to wait until its next opportunity. Again. But if not now, then when? Barring GTA being handed a laughably weak division intentionally, this was the perfect setup.

For those playing the home game, all three remakes made it into the final 16 of this contest. We can argue about the legitimacy of Resident Evil 2 all day, but no one will ever convince me Persona 4 Golden or Pokemon HGSS should have been in this contest. I'm no GTA fan by any stretch, but Vita games behaving like they have the strength of the original game goes against the spirit of a contest like this. But it is what it is, and this would set up a wonderful match between Persona 4 Golden and Xenoblade Chronicles for the divisional title.

"But Ulti, you haven't done the writeup for Xenoblade and Fire Emblem yet. You're kind of spoiling it there, buddy."

If anyone at this point of the contest thought Three Houses was beating Xenoblade, they're out of their damn mind.

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Anagram
05/23/20 7:05:15 PM
#169:


How many finals have been Nintendo vs Nintendo?

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ZeroSignal620
05/23/20 7:07:30 PM
#170:


Anagram posted...
How many finals have been Nintendo vs Nintendo?

2002
GotD 1
Rivalry Rumble

Along with this, 2003 was the only Square vs Square year

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Anagram
05/23/20 7:09:45 PM
#171:


ZeroSignal620 posted...
2002
GotD 1
Rivalry Rumble

Along with this, 2003 was the only Square vs Square year
Not as many as I expected, alright. Thanks.

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snake_5036
05/23/20 7:54:32 PM
#172:


2004 was also square vs square with Chrono Trigger and FF7

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ZeroSignal620
05/23/20 7:58:29 PM
#173:


Correction. Best Game Ever 2004 was also Square vs Square in the finals

For this list, I'm only counting tournament finals, not the extra tournament of champions stuff in 05 and 06

Whole list
2002 - Nintendo vs Nintendo
2003 - Square vs Square
BGE1 - Square vs Square
2004 - Nintendo vs Square
Villains - Nintendo vs Square
2005 - Nintendo vs Square
Series - Nintendo vs Square
2006 - Nintendo vs Konami
2007 - Nintendo vs Square vs Konami vs L Block
2008 - Nintendo vs Konami vs Square vs Square
BGE2 - Nintendo vs Square
2010 - Nintendo vs Square
GotD - Nintendo vs Nintendo
Rivals - Nintendo vs Nintendo
2013 - Riot vs Konami vs Nintendo
BGE3 - Toby Fox vs Nintendo
2018 - Nintendo vs Square
GotD2 - Nintendo vs Projekt

Tetris is everything. Atari, Nintendo, some developer before Atari, so I kept it simple and put L Block

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PostContestUlti
05/24/20 1:01:03 AM
#174:


Division 4 Semifinal: (3)Xenoblade Chronicles vs (2)Fire Emblem: Three Houses

(3)Xenoblade Chronicles - 16374 [59.64%]
(2)Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 11082 [40.36%]
Total Votes - 27456
Prediction Percentage - 16.7%

Xenoblade looked better than Fire Emblem for two rounds straight, and this is the match where it came time for Fire Emblem to get the asswhipping that was clearly coming. A lot of people would end up calling this match an SFF beating, and there may have been some of that, but I think something else was at play here.

We've seen the power of anti-voting in contests with vote totals this low. Just ask Draven, Sans, Undertale, Dota 2, Grand Theft Auto, or Master Chief. When that stink is on you, watch out. Fire Emblem, and specifically Fire Emblem: Three Houses, getting added to that list might seem a bit out of place, but remember that the Smash Bros fanbase is largely made up of spoiled, whiny, insufferable idiots who somehow have the money for video games but can't ever afford water, soap, a gym membership, or deodorant.

To understand what happened to Fire Emblem here, we have to go back 14 years to May of 2006: https://www.smashbros.com/wii/en_us/

In 2006 Sakurai, the creator of Smash Bros, launched the '''DOJO'''. It was a masterful piece of marketing, and it was used to slowly spoil content and get people worked up into a frenzy for the upcoming Super Smash Bros Brawl. This has continued in Smash games all the way through today, and they've even added DLC characters, season passes, and incredibly well done videos on the internet outside of the '''DOJO''' environment to keep this hype going to a wide audience.

It's worked out beautifully. Smash Ultimate has sold something like 20 million copies, far and away the #1 fighting game ever. Part of this is due to the incredible hype videos:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMeYV8Gbpd4

On top of that, they do a wonderful job with these DLC character videos as well. Even ''costumes'' have people freaking out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmau-gRMr_U

"Ulti, didn't you call Smash people the worst fanbase in entertainment like two writeups ago?"

Yes, but there are plenty of good ones left. I specifically mean the losers who are incapable of playing any of those games for fun.

Anyway, all of the hype over the past 15 years has helped Smash become what it is today -- with one exception. Fire Emblem. It's been a long-standing belief that there are way, way too many Fire Emblem characters in those games, and that the characters they do pick are always main characters that all get made to play the exact same way. Sword, disjointed hitbox, keep people from getting in, rinse and repeat. It's been the same gameplay for 20 years, and the old joke is that all of the Fire Emblem characters are just different versions of Marth. I wish I could say these people are wrong, but they're completely right on this one.

And yet with all of that, ''nothing'' prepared people for the absolute shitstorm that would come from this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aqVlLlKkcg

Smash fans get hyped for ANYTHING, but see how that video has 40% dislikes? These people lost their damn minds over this reveal, so of course Three Houses was going to fold like an accordion the second it faced anything decent. Was this match SFF? Maybe. But there was 100% confirmation of anti-voting going on. Three Houses looked like garbage all contest long, and finally it went up against a game in Xenoblade that could take full advantage.

The true shame here is twofold. One, Xenoblade didn't get the credit it deserved here for going on a deep contest run. It was more blame being thrown at Fire Emblem than anything else, which is a shame. Xenoblade deserves to get some love here. And two, Smash Bros aside, Three Houses did absolutely nothing wrong. It's a ''wonderful'' game, and got such a raw deal here. You take Fire Emblem, a series known for choking as-is, and add anti-votes to the mix? Watch out.

This match all but cemented Fire Emblem as Turd of the Contest, and set up an awesome match for the Division 4 final in Persona 4 Golden versus Xenoblade Chronicles. And by the way, I ''knew'' Three Houses would choke. You can go check my guru bracket. Smash fans were going to bury this game first chance they got.

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_SecretSquirrel
05/24/20 1:14:51 AM
#175:


The one thing I will say in a sort of defense here to the community, Byleth had no business being the last character of the pack announced. You can't throw out third-party bombshell after third-party bombshell four times in a row, and then go back to the Fire Emblem well for the fifth and final one and expect it to go over well. Byleth should have been like the second or third one announced.

That being said, what really stunk for Three Houses is that all we know about Pack 2 is that the first one is an ARMS character, which is going to be even more deflating, so the timing was pretty bad. All will be forgiven when they announce the next third-party character or Geno or whoever the next bombshell fighter is going to be. It just didn't come soon enough for Three Houses here.

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NowItsAngeTime
05/24/20 3:20:40 AM
#176:


To me the worst part is Byleth actually isn't a Marth (semi-)clone. And is actually pretty fun. So it made the annoying crying that much worse.

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_SecretSquirrel
05/24/20 3:24:31 AM
#177:


NowItsAngeTime posted...
To me the worst part is Byleth actually isn't a Marth (semi-)clone. And is actually pretty fun. So it made the annoying crying that much worse.
I haven't spent a ton of time in Smash since Byleth came out, but I know they don't play like of any of the other Fire Emblem characters. That's not a valid criticism in the slightest.

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_stingers_
05/24/20 3:54:12 AM
#178:


People were mad before they understood the slightest thing about his playstyle. The issue is that he's a FE character.
I mean personally I would prefer almost anything else over an FE character, but I do think Byleth is pretty fun to play. I don't really care either way because anything that isn't KOS-MOS is meaningless to me but as far is the general perception goes the hype level of Byleth into Arms character is pretty bottom tier

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LinkMarioSamus
05/24/20 4:53:02 AM
#179:


Is Three Houses a good place to start Fire Emblem? Never played any of the games before.

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PostContestUlti
05/24/20 8:20:37 AM
#180:


LinkMarioSamus posted...
Is Three Houses a good place to start Fire Emblem? Never played any of the games before.
It's probably the best one to start with. Do you plan on playing the entire series, or at least most of the big name games?

Play in this order:

-Three Houses
-Awakening
-Blazing Blade (the GBA one called just "Fire Emblem")
-Sacred Stones
-Fates (Birthright, Conquest, then Revelation)
-Path of Radiance
-Radiant Dawn

That should keep you busy for about a year.

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Safer_777
05/24/20 8:25:46 AM
#181:


I say start with Awakening first.

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PostContestUlti
05/24/20 8:43:52 AM
#182:


Division 5 Semifinal: (1)The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs (4)Super Mario Galaxy 2

(1)Witcher 3 - 16312 [60.6%]
(4)Mario Galaxy 2 - 10606 [39.4%]
Total Votes - 26918
Prediction Percentage - 65.39%

For five minutes, this had the potential to be one of the funniest matches of the entire contest. Here was Witcher 3, pasting fools from the west through two rounds, finally going up against a big-name Nintendo title and falling flat on its face. Through the first five minutes of this poll, it was outright tied, and it truly did look like the first two rounds were fool's gold. "Yeah that's cute Geralt, but this is GameFAQs, call me when you show up against Mario or Link."

And then the next few updates hit, and it became clear we were dealing with a whole new breed of contest badass. Embarrassing Assassin's Creed Odyssey or Mass Effect 3 is one thing. Embarrassing Mario is something else entirely. In a way, it was almost more impressive for Witcher 3 to finally get punched in the mouth before returning to blowout mode than it would have been for Geralt to just steamroll into the finals. On this site, you don't have your stripes until you beat a major Nintendo contest entrant. For this match to be tied at the freeze and end up a 60-40 blowout was awesome, though it did give some hope that maybe this thing was beatable before the final.

Quick note on Galaxy 2 before we move on. The two Mario Galaxy games get hyped up every time they're in a contest, and neither one of them ever ''really'' comes through in a debated match. Here are some examples:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3492-division-8-round-2-ssbb-gta4-cod-4-s-mario-g
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6064-best-game-ever-day-4-super-mario-galaxy-2-vs-mass-effect
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6137-best-game-ever-day-22-round-2-super-metroid-vs-super-mario

I'd mention the Twilight Princess loss, but I don't recall anyone really saying Galaxy 1 could win that match.

The point here is in hearing people talk about these two games, you'd think they were on the level of Mario 64 or better. They ''should'' be at that upper echelon of Mario games, but they're crippled by the awful motion controls and disorienting perspective. For everything those games do well -- and when they're on, they're both incredible video games -- it can't be overstated just how much people detest motion controls. It's the tragic flaw in two otherwise brilliant games, and we see that play out in these polls. The second either one of those games can fold, they usually do.

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LinkMarioSamus
05/24/20 9:29:57 AM
#183:


PostContestUlti posted...
It's probably the best one to start with. Do you plan on playing the entire series, or at least most of the big name games?

Play in this order:

-Three Houses
-Awakening
-Blazing Blade (the GBA one called just "Fire Emblem")
-Sacred Stones
-Fates (Birthright, Conquest, then Revelation)
-Path of Radiance
-Radiant Dawn

That should keep you busy for about a year.

I don't even really have any plans. I was more asking if Three Houses would make a good entry to the series.

Never thought the Mario Galaxy games were particularly crippled by motion controls but I can see why one would.

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PostContestUlti
05/24/20 9:32:20 AM
#184:


Because all motion controls are trash.

Division 5 Semifinal: (3)Fallout: New Vegas vs (2)God of War

(3)Fallout: New Vegas - 12043 [44.73%]
(2)God of War - 14879 [55.27%]
Total Votes - 26922
Prediction Percentage - 48.88%

This is going to be an incredibly biased writeup, but I don't care. God of War 2018 is about Kratos learning to become a good father, when in the entire series leading up to this game he was little more than an angry, mindless killing machine. It's incredible character development, and I can't wait to see more from this series. As a longtime series fan and product of a broken home myself, I found God of War 2018 very, very touching.

Why bring this up in round 3 of a contest? Well not long after this contest ended, Shad Gaspard died while swimming. A riptide carried him and his son out to sea, and we later learned that as this happened and a lifeguard showed up, he told the lifeguard to save his son first. Gaspard's body was found on the beach a few days later.

Who is Shad Gaspard, you may ask. He's a former pro wrestler, and he was the guy who did the motion capture for Kratos in God of War 2018. Meaning the dude who Kratos is now modeled after died because he was being a great father. I know a lot of people on the internet aren't religious, but God really does work in mysterious ways. You cannot make up a story like this.

On a much, much, much less important note, this is the first time anything related to God of War got past round 3 in a contest. Kratos came close in 2007, but L-Block's bandwagon got in the way. New Vegas, you're a fine game and your time may come, but the right game and the right story was told here. No two ways around it, pal, but at least your loss was respectable. This set up a divisional final where God of War had zero chance of winning, and that is perfectly okay. These contests aren't only about winning the entire thing. If some new people check out God of War 2018 because of it making a deep contest run, that's all I can ask for.

Seriously, go play this game if you haven't.

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LinkMarioSamus
05/24/20 9:38:11 AM
#185:


I don't have a PS4! At least I do like what I have played of the God of War series.

Over the past few years I've found it hard to commit to most games. I typically lose interest before finishing. Final Fantasy VII being the most recent casualty.

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PostContestUlti
05/24/20 10:05:26 AM
#186:


Division 6 Semifinal: (1)Persona 5 vs (5)Sonic Mania

(1)Persona 5 - 17040 [67.89%]
(5)Sonic Mania - 8059 [32.11%]
Total Votes - 25099
Prediction Percentage - 63.69%

I saw Sonic Mania getting made fun of a lot for eating a turbo blowout in the late rounds, which is just grossly unfair to Persona 5 here. I don't think people quite understand just how crazy strong the Persona series has gotten on this web site, or how rabid that fanbase is. If you skip ahead and look at KP's adjusted stats (https://pastebin.com/Pxt3zA8g), he has the game right at the strength of Dark Souls, and we can all agree Dark Souls made a big leap from 2015 to now.

The Persona series has made a much, much bigger leap. I'm going to keep posting this poll to hammer this point home: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4154-southwest-division-round-2-dead-rising-vs-persona-4

Pretend that poll happened in this contest, and it was Dead Rising 2 versus Persona 4 Golden. My over-under on the oracle consensus would be Persona 4 with 60-65% of the vote. Maybe higher.

This wasn't some LOL SONIC match. This was all Persona flexing some newfound muscle. This contest had a series cap of 2 games. For those playing the home game, only one series in this contest got both of its games into the final 16 -- Persona. It was an eyelash from getting both games into the final 8, too. Persona in this contest accomplished what no other series could. Not Zelda, not Mario, not Dark Souls, none of it.

RESPEK THE NAME.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jLT7GQYNhI

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PostContestUlti
05/24/20 10:53:29 AM
#187:


Division 6 Semifinal: (3)Portal 2 vs (2)Red Dead Redemption 2

(3)Portal 2 - 13422 [53.48%]
(2)Red Dead Redemption 2 - 11677 [46.52%]
Total Votes - 25099
Prediction Percentage - 23.57%

This is the match that knocked me out of the guru, and I truly couldn't care less. A big weakness I've always had is having way too much faith in new stuff in contests, and I figured Red Dead Redemption 2 would have a bunch of crazy strength behind it. Whoops! The final score was very close and respectable, but Portal 2 easily won the match to validate all of the beliefs about its true strength being hidden all these years. Props to those who saw this all coming.

There were a few spots in this match where RDR2 was able to make some prolonged stalls, but it never made a push to do much in the way of actually winning this match. With its loss, this meant Rockstar's exit from this contest and the exit of casualbait titles altogether. One day I'll remember to stop having any faith in any of them, regardless of how popular they are off-site.

This set up a very interesting match between Portal 2 and Persona 5 for the division title, and with a lack of reliable data on either it had the potential to be a very unpredictable match.

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PostContestUlti
05/24/20 11:16:24 AM
#188:


Division 7 Semifinal: (1)Dark Souls vs (4)Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain

(1)Dark Souls - 15439 [63.29%]
(4)Metal Gear Solid 5 - 8954 [36.71%]
Total Votes - 24393
Prediction Percentage - 56.17%

Did you guys know that these two games had a match in round 2 in the 2015 contest? https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6136-best-game-ever-day-22-round-2-metal-gear-solid-v-vs-dark

In case you didn't know, don't worry, that poll was posted somewhere between 500 and 176,000 times in the leadup to this match. For a bit of context instead of just directly comparing that match to this one and thinking we were all stupid back in 2015, MGS5 came out in September of 2015 and the Fall 2015 Contest was announced just over a month later. 75% of the gurus picked MGS5 to beat Dark Souls that year, for several reasons. MGS5 was a hot, new release in a series this site loved at the time, and Dark Souls was still relatively brand new. Before the 2015 contest, this was the entirety of what we had to go off of for Souls in contests: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4079-northeast-division-round-1-demons-souls-vs-mega-man-9

That's it. One match. I'm frankly still blown away by how easily Dark Souls won that match in 2015, and I love seeing how far Souls has come since then. That contest, paired with KP constantly telling me to check the games out, is why I finally gave in and played Demon's Souls in 2016. I'm glad I did! I became a huge series fan, and it's more proof that when KP tells you to play something, you fucking go play it. No questions asked. The man's recommendations are peerless.

Let's fast forward to now. A lot has changed in gaming since 2015. Konami went all fuck-all on us, and the Souls series, along with Western RPGs, has become ''the'' defining gaming trend of the decade. In 2015, 75% of gurus picked Metal Gear Solid 5. In 2020, all but one guru picked Dark Souls to win here. The lone holdout didn't even pick MGS5. He picked Rocket League. That's.... pretty good insight into how far Metal Gear Solid has fallen around these parts, actually.

This match was never going to be in question. The only thing to know was exactly how far Metal Gear Solid 5 fell. The answer, as we now know, is 8%. That's a pretty crazy drop in only five years, but I think we're all smart enough to know that it's a combination of both the Souls series going up and Metal Gear Solid going down. How much of that 8% gets assigned to either factor is anyone's guess, and I doubt it matters much anyway. Who is their right mind going to pick anything related to Metal Gear Solid in a debated match anymore?

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PostContestUlti
05/24/20 12:09:06 PM
#189:


Division 7 Semifinal: (3)Batman: Arkham City vs (2)The Last of Us

(3)Arkham City - 10919 [44.76%]
(2)The Last of Us - 13475 [55.24%]
Total Votes - 24394
Prediction Percentage - 58.13%

For anyone who still thought The Last of Us had a prayer to beat Dark Souls, this match was a good indicator that it was completely screwed. By now, it was clear that Dark Souls had boosted. The Last of Us, meanwhile, didn't move in strength much if at all between 2015 and 2020.

Batman: Arkham City (2015g) VS The Last of Us (2015g)

Batman: Arkham City has a strength of 25.17.
The Last of Us has a strength of 27.36.

The Last of Us wins with 54.00% of the vote!
A win of 4,873 with 60,875 total votes cast.

The Last of Us did as expected here against Batman, but it needed to do so much more than "as expected" given Dark Souls wasn't playing around this year. On top of that, one would assume that The Last of Us 2 hype would help out the original in this contest -- we've seen sequel hype matter a lot in the past -- but it simply wasn't materializing this contest for The Last of Us.

And all that has to be taken into account ''before'' "it" happened. See the date on this poll? April 26th, 2020? Learn that date, because 4/26/2020 is the last day in human history where The Last of Us, Sony, or Naughty Dog would have any respect whatsoever. On April 27th, that would all change.

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NowItsAngeTime
05/24/20 12:14:08 PM
#190:


Personally I think the problem with Galaxy games is they look pretty graphics but overall have pretty boring level designs

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Anagram
05/24/20 12:15:23 PM
#191:


What finals have not involved Nintendo?


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th3l3fty
05/24/20 12:26:56 PM
#192:


Anagram I recommend scrolling up
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Anagram
05/24/20 12:28:35 PM
#193:


I meant besides the Square vs Square one.

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LinkMarioSamus
05/24/20 12:35:48 PM
#194:


NowItsAngeTime posted...
Personally I think the problem with Galaxy games is they look pretty graphics but overall have pretty boring level designs

In terms of providing challenge, yes. In terms of providing enthralling setpieces, heck no.

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PostContestUlti
05/24/20 12:37:07 PM
#195:


Division 8 Semifinal: (1)The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs (13)Mario Kart 8

(1)Skyrim - 16562 [60.9%]
(13)Mario Kart 8 - 10635 [39.1%]
Total Votes - 27197
Prediction Percentage - 69.25%

A few matches ago, we had a funny first five minutes between Witcher 3 and Mario Galaxy 2, where Galaxy famously had Witcher 3 tied at the freeze before getting buried. If ever there was a time for Skyrim to prove it still could make the final, this was it.

Instead, we got a repeat performance. If you take the Witcher 3 vs Galaxy 2 match trends and put it up next to Skyrim vs Mario Kart 8, you get practically the exact same match. It's cute and funny to look at and such, but it also meant more confirmation of the obvious -- Witcher 3 was a cut above Skyrim for this entire contest. If only we knew that going in, huh? For the first five minutes of this poll, Mario Kart 8 made a match of it. For the final 23 hours and 55 minutes, Skyrim buried Mario Kart 8 to survive and advance. I'm happy Mario Kart 8 booted the MMORPG trash out of this contest, but it doesn't mean I enjoy any of the Mario Kart games. I just hate them less than I do MMOs. To that end, it was nice seeing Mario Kart 8 gets its teeth kicked in. Screw all of those games for life.

The one and only thing that sucked about Mario Kart finally leaving this contest was our last high seed making its exit. I'm a huge fan of underdog runs in the NCAAs and seeing these tiny midmajor schools make deep runs, so when a high seed starts going off and making runs in our contests I tend to enjoy it. With Mario Kart 8's loss, it meant these seedings for the division finals:

-1 vs 2
-1 vs 3
-1 vs 2
-5 vs 3
-1 vs 2
-1 vs 3
-1 vs 2
-1 vs 3

Had GTA5 not dropped the ball, it would have been all 1 seeds versus 2s and 3s. Allen did a great job with seeding this year, clearly, but it was almost ''too'' good.

The reason we knew Skyrim was screwed is because in a hypothetical Galaxy 2 versus Mario Kart 8 match, 100% of gurus would pick Galaxy 2. As they should. This wasn't like the entertaining Tekken 7 versus Mortal Kombat 11 debate that popped up after round one because of what was going on with Smash Ultimate and Mario Odyssey; everyone and their mother knew Skyrim was done for.

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th3l3fty
05/24/20 12:40:23 PM
#196:


Anagram posted...
I meant besides the Square vs Square one.

ZSig provided the whole list of finals in post 173 >_>
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PostContestUlti
05/24/20 12:40:53 PM
#197:


Anagram posted...
I meant besides the Square vs Square one.
Reading is your friend.

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Anagram
05/24/20 12:53:33 PM
#198:


th3l3fty posted...
ZSig provided the whole list of finals in post 173 >_>
Whoops.

PostContestUlti posted...
Reading is your friend.
Evidently not my friend.

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MechanicalWall
05/24/20 2:08:11 PM
#199:


PostContestUlti posted...
The reason we knew Skyrim was screwed is because in a hypothetical Galaxy 2 versus Mario Kart 8 match, 100% of gurus would pick Galaxy 2. As they should. This wasn't like the entertaining Tekken 7 versus Mortal Kombat 11 debate that popped up after round one because of what was going on with Smash Ultimate and Mario Odyssey; everyone and their mother knew Skyrim was done for.
You'd certainly think so, but I still remember there being a fair bit of hemming and hawing about this. 'Do we know FOR SURE that Mario Kart is weaker than a mainline, highly acclaimed Mario platformer??'

I think this was one of those scenarios where people were trying to create suspense and doubt where it really wasn't warranted.

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plasmabeam
05/24/20 2:14:04 PM
#200:


NowItsAngeTime posted...
Personally I think the problem with Galaxy games is they look pretty graphics but overall have pretty boring level designs

This. Particularly Galaxy 1, which felt like it was on-rails most of the time. Galaxy 2 corrected this and ended up being excellent IMO.

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LinkMarioSamus
05/24/20 2:28:01 PM
#201:


Galaxy 1 was the innovator and Galaxy 2 was the refinement.

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