Poll of the Day > 30 days to slow the spread.

(+) Yeah! (+)

lmao

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Literally a synopsis for an apocalypse drama.
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When are the FEMA camps coming?

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100k-200k projected total deaths.
Just a flu bro.

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Also FYI: This is the model they are using:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

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28 Days Later

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Just imagine having to tell 300 million people that 100-200k (or even more) people are going to die in the next 3 months.

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Judgmenl posted...

Just imagine having to tell 300 million people that 100-200k (or even more) people are going to die in the next 3 months.

That's about on par with tobacco deaths

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Lokarin posted...

That's about on par with tobacco deaths

That's with shelter in place.

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Where are you seeing 100k-200k deaths?
On the bottom of the website it says 83,967 deaths.

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I was saying what Trump said.
He basically said "yea it could be 100k but it could be more"
Replace 100k with 80k. His numbers are probably out of date with the model.

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Who is this chick with Fauci? She's based af.


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no mitigation would have been 1-2m deaths.
Yikes.
China is hiding their numbers.

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shadowsword87 posted...

Where are you seeing 100k-200k deaths?
On the bottom of the website it says 83,967 deaths.

Thats if we take social distancing seriously so full lockdown means 40,000 deaths while doing nothing means 160,000 deaths

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Judgmenl posted...

China is hiding their numbers.

Not sure though... I would be surprised if one of the most populous nations in the world didn't suffer proportionately to a global event, but if you compare their numbers to other high density nations like India... ... well, just not sure.

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I mean, honestly? I don't know where they are getting these numbers, they seem WAY to low.

Even with full quarantine/SAH, I would expect a much larger number. Look at ITaly which imposed far more stringent measures WAY earlier than us.

Curent confirmed virus cases in Italy, 105k
Current # of deaths in Italy 12,428 (over 10%)
Current number of cases that have fully recovered 15,729.

That is with a full lockdown in effect, and a fairly strong lockdown that was started almost right away when cases started to pop up, WAY before the US started any SAH at all.

MEanwhile Italy has less than 1/5th our total population.

So if we only get hit as hard as them, it seems likely we would have at least 5x as many deaths (and honestly probably far more due to not having the resources to hospitalize such a large number, even italy was having to choose who to admit).

I would suggest that any number of deaths less then 1 million in the US before this is over would be a good result (even if we actually start really locking everything down), not 100k.

It should be menttoned that in JUST New York and New Jersey at this point, we have about as many cases as Italy has all together. If this continues to spread like it has in those locations (And honestly it doesn't seem like we are doing much to prevent that), we should end up with waaay more then 5x as many people getting the virus as Italy. They have 60million people in Italy and only 105k total confirmed cases.

It's highly likely that if we don't start taking this seriously, we could have more than 10x that many infected, possibly 20x or more if it totally gets out of control.

We have 320 MILLION people in the US, and as we can see in NY it can spread very fast, so yeah, if even 33% of our pop actually contracts the virus, that would be over 100 million cases....compared to Italy's 100k.....or 1000x as many cases...and therefore likely AT LEAST 1000x as many deaths.

Currently itally has over 12k deaths....multiply that by 1000x and your talking about 12 million deaths, not 100k.

Those are the worst case numbers we should be seeing, not......if we didn't do anything we would have 1-2 million. That doesn't make mathmatical sense at all.

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Judgmenl posted...

I was saying what Trump said.

no dont do that

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Judgmenl posted...

100k-200k projected total deaths.
Just a flu bro.

200k is *if* USA enacts excellent quarantine measures immediately *and* the virus has only a 1% fatality rate. neither of which seem to be the case.

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It's important to remember that the way recoveries are counted are testing negative twice after testing positive. So not everyone that feels better will get another test, let alone 2, so the recovery rate is much MUCH higher than what is reported.

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Recovidry

we is so doomed

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papercup posted...

It's important to remember that the way recoveries are counted are testing negative twice after testing positive. So not everyone that feels better will get another test, let alone 2, so the recovery rate is much MUCH higher than what is reported.

I wish I could say that matters, but...sadly, at least for Italy's numbers, the number of deaths compared to the number of people who were confirmed to have the virus is what is important.

That ratio shows it as being over 10% of the people who were confirmed to have the virus have died at this point. Now, it's quite possible not everyone was tested (highly likely in fact) that had the virus.

Even if only half of those with the virus were tested though, that is still above a 5% mortality rate, which is completely and totally unheard of at this point. The flue has a .1% mortality rate. The gov is currently trying to say the this virus only has a 1% mortality rate even though the numbers that China released (which are obviously very unlikely to be true) show it having a higher mortality rate than that (significantly).

China has settled down (few deaths each day now) to end with a 4% death rate out of those who tested positive. They seem to have at least hit a downward curve (but some reports say it's starting up again). The point though here is even if China is telling the truth (They certainly wouldn't exagerate the number of deaths) we are talking about a 4% death rate of people tested and probably at least a 2% death rate of the population who caught the virus.

And it's highly (Extremely highly) likely they are covering up some things.

So yeah, more are recovering than we know, but...the number that really matters is the % of people who get it who die, and well, that is looking to be at least double what the US is trying to say it is. It is almost certainly over a 2% death rate, and based on Italy, might be over 5%.

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It's too late, you're a walking time bomb, say goodbye to granny.

Korruptor posted...

It's too late, you're a walking time bomb, say goodbye to granny.

My grandmother died a decade ago and I never got to have a relationship with her.

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The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.

So they don't actually apply to most of the country. Sweet.

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Expose everyone now. Get it over with. Oh wait, this is the generation that never even had the chicken pox. Frail as fuck.

DDirtyDastard posted...

Expose everyone now. Get it over with. Oh wait, this is the generation that never even had the chicken pox. Frail as fuck.

I was a kid when pox parties were a thing and this is just... A bad idea.

DDirtyDastard posted...

Expose everyone now. Get it over with. Oh wait, this is the generation that never even had the chicken pox. Frail as fuck.

The issue isn't with people who are young, it's with people who are old.
Like, if you're gonna shit on people, at least get it right.

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shadowsword87 posted...

The issue isn't with people who are young, it's with people who are old.
Like, if you're gonna shit on people, at least get it right.

Isn't it the usual really old and really young crowd? I thought young kids were also at risk.

Also just realized another issue with what they said though... What is wrong with never having had chicken pox? Oh no medical science has prevented unnecessary illness. How awful apparently.

I blame Democrats and Leftists for making this situation worse, all via virtue signalling

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WslBRY9B-n4

ChaosAzeroth posted...

Also just realized another issue with what they said though... What is wrong with never having had chicken pox? Oh no medical science has prevented unnecessary illness. How awful apparently.

But it makes their immune systems weaker! Never mind that that is literally the exact opposite of how vaccines work! It just does!

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TheWorstPoster posted...

I blame Democrats and Leftists for making this situation worse, all via virtue signalling

And I blame Trump for completely bungling the response to the virus. One of us is right, and it's me.
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TheWorstPoster posted...

I blame Democrats and Leftists for making this situation worse, all via virtue signalling

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WslBRY9B-n4

What about when Trump said Obama should resign after 2 Ebola cases @TheWorstPoster

TheWorstPoster posted...

I blame Democrats and Leftists for making this situation worse, all via virtue signalling

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WslBRY9B-n4

The leader of our country is responsible for his inaction, he's responsible for cutting the CDC, he's to blame for running for president having no clue what he's doing, and you are to blame for supporting him.

Yes, he's playing catch up now, but it's his fault that it spread so quickly because he did nothing for weeks after there were confirmed cases in January, ignoring all the expert's advice, calling it a Democratic hoax.

Now you have the nerve to learn nothing and instead blame others. This country is in the state it's in because of you and people like you. You live on another plane of reality.

Do you not remember Fox news downplaying it, blaming Democrats for the panic, because we just "hate America"? Now those same idiots are pretending they were right all along, despite rarely being right about anything.

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