Board 8 > Coronavirus Episode 6: Return of the Jedi

(+) Yeah! (+)

taly's update:
+4050 new positive cases (total 101739)
+812 new deaths (total 11591)
+1590 new recoveries (total 14620)

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https://youtu.be/UlCYFh8U2xM

Taiwan doesn't exist to the WHO :(

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Nonessential businesses closed until May 4th now in Massachusetts. I get to go back to work before my husband has to wahhh

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Reading through this right now

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I suggest not reading it sideways

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Ryokles posted...

Nonessential businesses closed until May 4th now in Massachusetts. I get to go back to work before my husband has to wahhh

I go in a couple of times a week still, wearing a mask and gloves and its kind of weird

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My housemate's ex-wife likely has Coronavirus, and he's been visiting their kids. He now has to stay and take care of the kids, so he may have gotten it in our home. Even more scary is that he has asthma, so it'll hit him a lot harder if he gets it.

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Todays death count is currently sitting at 912.

Tomorrow is destined to go over 1000. We likely wont go under 1000 for 3 to 4 weeks at minimum.

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Well this is super depressing

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html

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Vaccine was never our savior in the first place. We know we're in for trouble til June/July. We know this is likely to have a resuregence in November/December.

With the way this spreads its going to pass through such a good chunk of the population in the short term a vaccine wouldn't make a huge difference in the first place.

We need to kick this thing down in the Summer and the world has to be on alert to lock it down when we see it coming back.

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That's why it is important to not lockdown too early before enough people get affected. You want to flatten the curve some to reduce load on hospitals while getting enough people immune to the virus as possible.

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Well, the vaccine is important because unless we either totally eradicate it (not gonna happen at this point) or completely fail and the majority of the population gets it (don't want to consider that happening!) it's the only thing that's going to actually allow us to fully go back to normal. I definitely think we can get to a place where we lift a lot of the current restrictions, but we're always going to have to be vigilant about new outbreaks and be ready to shut things down again (at least at a local level), and some restrictions (e.g. probably large event restrictions) will have to be in place for the duration.

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Corrik7 posted...

That's why it is important to not lockdown too early before enough people get affected. You want to flatten the curve some to reduce load on hospitals while getting enough people immune to the virus as possible.

This isn't feasible given that R0 is considerably above 1. For herd immunity you need a fraction 1-1/R0 of the population to be immune to get the effective R below 1 and stop exponential spread (so on the order of half the population). To keep that under our hospital capacity that would have to be stretched over and extremely long period of time, and even if we did that having half the population get the virus even with everyone getting treatment would be an unacceptably huge loss of life.

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the lockdown is going to be up and down for the next couple of years in all likelihood. But assuming 200000 deaths means at least 20 million people infected in the first place, and I think that might be a conservative estimate.

What we know now is the most dangerous thing about this virus is how easily it spreads.

A sizable portion of the population is going to get this virus and there is no stopping that at this point.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

This isn't feasible given that R0 is considerably above 1. For herd immunity you need a fraction 1-1/R0 of the population to be immune to get the effective R below 1 and stop exponential spread (so on the order of half the population). To keep that under our hospital capacity that would have to be stretched over and extremely long period of time, and even if we did that having half the population get the virus even with everyone getting treatment would be an unacceptably huge loss of life.

Again. That's why you don't want to lockdown too early and you are working just to reduce the load some.

If you lockdown too early you are in perpetual lockdown for the next decade or whenever a vaccine is made.

You want a wave of people that is a significant chunk of the population but also is reduced some to not overwhelm the hospital system too much. If you could get 1 million people infected this go around, then wave 2 has at least 1/400th of the population immune hopefully for awhile which automatically social distances.

If you only get 54 people infected. You did nothing to stop the spread later on and it just comes back as soon as you stop lockdown anyways. Unless you plan to go an isolationist country completely, the reduce it to 0 and case track is impossible. The virus is everywhere and would require zero trade ever to do that.

Containment is impossible.

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New "worst national coronavirus response" winner:

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1245189147758821376

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Vince McMahon running Turkmenistan confirmed

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Spain numbers:
-7179 new cases (total 102136, 8.1% increase, yesterday was 10.8%)
-864 new deaths (total 9053, 10.5% increase, yesterday was 11.5%)
-3388 new recoveries (total 22647, 17.5% increase)
-265 new ICU hospitalizations (total 5872, 4.5% increase)

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I don't think there was ever a chance of us getting through this without a massive percentage (close to 100%) of the population getting it.

The 911 calls I have been responding to have been too numerous to handle. Dead bodies are lying in their apartments for days at a time before the medical examiner has an opportunity to come pick them up. Way, way more people are gonna die.

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Corrik7 posted...

You want a wave of people that is a significant chunk of the population but also is reduced some to not overwhelm the hospital system too much. If you could get 1 million people infected this go around, then wave 2 has at least 1/400th of the population immune hopefully for awhile which automatically social distances.

I'm not sure what the hospital capacity for the United States is, but assuming each 1 million person wave lasts a month (waves typically last longer than that) it would take 33 years to have everyone immune, assuming back to back waves and no births/deaths over that time. By that time the virus will have likely mutated. Of course you don't need a 100% immunity rate, but typically for herd immunity you want 95%.

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SavageInTheBox posted...

I don't think there was ever a chance of us getting through this without a massive percentage (close to 100%) of the population getting it.

The 911 calls I have been responding to have been too numerous to handle. Dead bodies are lying in their apartments for days at a time before the medical examiner has an opportunity to come pick them up. Way, way more people are gonna die.

Are they making you work while infected?? Or is this purely past tense?
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Past tense. I can barely move right now. But I will be back out there soon enough and it will only be worse.

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charmander6000 posted...

I'm not sure what the hospital capacity for the United States is, but assuming each 1 million person wave lasts a month (waves typically last longer than that) it would take 33 years to have everyone immune, assuming back to back waves and no births/deaths over that time. By that time the virus will have likely mutated. Of course you don't need a 100% immunity rate, but typically for herd immunity you want 95%.

Would spread less each ensuing time due to more immune. Thus, it makes lockdowns less necessary as time goes on as it doesn't overwhelm hospitals due to not spiking greatly.

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charmander6000 posted...

Of course you don't need a 100% immunity rate, but typically for herd immunity you want 95%.

There's so much gloom and doom in here overnight and so many overreaching comments being made that simply are not true. This is one of them. If you truly believe this figure, you are saying COVID-19 is the most spreadable disease ever and more easily contracted than the measles, which is simply false.
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Corrik7 posted...

Would spread less each ensuing time due to more immune. Thus, it makes lockdowns less necessary as time goes on as it doesn't overwhelm hospitals due to not spiking greatly.

While true, I don't think we will reach that point until either a) we overwhelm hospitals and see an initial ~10% mortality rate like Italy or Spain or b) it'll take years, not months to achieve.

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70% herd immunity is usually enough to prevent large spreads.

v_charon posted...

There's so much gloom and doom in here overnight and so many overreaching comments being made that simply are not true. This is one of them. If you truly believe this figure, you are saying COVID-19 is the most spreadable disease ever and more easily contracted than the measles, which is simply false.

To get rid of the disease, that's the ultimate goal. To decrease this from a pandemic to a nuisance, but unlikely to overwhelm hospitals then it'll be a lot less.

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The amount of herd immunity you need depends on the R0.

At the lower threshold of 1.4 stated for Coronavirus you want 29% herd immunity. For the upper stated threshold of 3.9 R0 you want 74%

Measles is what requires 95% herd immunity but that has a R0 of 18 which is why the antivax movement is incredibly dangerous

For comparison Flu relies on 33-44% herd immunity

charmander6000 posted...

To get rid of the disease, that's the ultimate goal. To decrease this from a pandemic to a nuisance, but unlikely to overwhelm hospitals then it'll be a lot less.

I'm not sure who is suggesting this is even possible. It's a little early to be thinking smallpox scenarios especially without a vaccine yet (again, someone literally used the word 'decade' referring to this, you guys make this worse you know). Defeating a pandemic is not the same thing as defeating a virus entirely; it's when you start using numbers like this in an uninformed or misleading way that the information you're passing around becomes disingenuous.
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taly's update:
+4782 new positive cases (total 110574)
+727 new deaths (total 13155)
+1118 new recoveries (total 16847)

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SavageInTheBox posted...

I don't think there was ever a chance of us getting through this without a massive percentage (close to 100%) of the population getting it.

If that's the case (and I believe you're correct) then what is the point in any sort of quarantine? Just to slow the spread so hospitals can try and keep up with the dead bodies or what

LadyVyxx posted...

If that's the case (and I believe you're correct) then what is the point in any sort of quarantine? Just to slow the spread so hospitals can try and keep up with the dead bodies or what

Sort of. Roughly 1 out of 2 people that need ventilators recover and live through the experience. However, they NEED the ventilators to survive. If the hospitals get overwhelmed and don't have enough ventilators, then suddenly we need to start rationing care and the potential fatality rate will increase up to two fold. That is just for ventilators. What if hospitals start running out of sick beds? Suddenly people who need treatment for other stuff will receive a worse standard of care, leading to worse outcomes, etc.

It is very important not to get everyone sick at once. Also, it will start to build up herd immunity which will dampen the spread in the future.

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It looks like Italy might just about be on the opposite side of their peak curve in terms of cases now. Death numbers are probably a few days behind that I'd imagine.

Scary thing about the bell curve is, once you're on the downslope you still have 50% of the cases/deaths to go. And this is the type of thing likely to have a long tail.

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A 31year old the next town over from me died. Anxiety level severe

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Oh god and now a 6 week old baby died in CT. My son is 7 weeks and my husband is barely taking this seriously ahhhhhhhhhhh

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This just in

Israel's Minister of Health is infected with the coronavirus
This is ironic in so many ways

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https://news.avclub.com/r-i-p-adam-schlesinger-singer-songwriter-and-founding-1842624832
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Relax, Ryokles.

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Hide ya kids hide ya husband

Dude they got Fountains of Wayne with this shit that fucking bums me out

statistically the demographic most likely to die from corona is members of Fountains of Wayne, who have a 1/4 chance

im legitimately very bummed by this news, and you have to figure there will be more stories like this before this whole thing is over

I hope Daniel Dae Kim has recovered by now
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MoogleKupo141 posted...

I hope Daniel Dae Kim has recovered by now

According to his Twitter 5 hours ago, he has.
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1040+ deaths in USA today.

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v_charon posted...

According to his Twitter 5 hours ago, he has.

oh thats great! thanks for the update.
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The universe is about to crank this baby into 6th gear we are just getting started

MoogleKupo141 posted...

oh thats great! thanks for the update.

No problem. Sorry to say anything positive in this topic though.
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PSA from my local police department

https://i.imgur.com/tKb4uYsl.jpg

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Pokewars posted...

https://youtu.be/UlCYFh8U2xM

Taiwan doesn't exist to the WHO :(

holy shit what a piece of garbage

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The US is officially over 5000 deaths :(

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Saw someone LARPing as Rick from TWD in the street today, Joel (TLOU) tomorrow? I think LARPers could be not having much of a bad time since they can now pretend they are main characters from apocalyptic shows and games.

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