Board 8 > When do you predict things will get back to normal again?

(+) Yeah! (+)

when?

May 12

When do I think daily life will resume for most people? Mid to late May, maybe even early June.

When do I think things will truly be back to normal? Not for at least a year, maybe even closer to a year and a half. This two month shut down of basically the world is going to take its toll on society and the economy. Not to mention people are still going to be getting sick and we may need to continue to see smaller-scale social distancing for the foreseeable future

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Soon.

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Underleveled posted...

When do I think daily life will resume for most people? Mid to late May, maybe even early June.

When do I think things will truly be back to normal? Not for at least a year, maybe even closer to a year and a half. This two month shut down of basically the world is going to take its toll on society and the economy.

why do you think may?

August 1.

We still have major cities that really havent begun their curve yet, and we know the curves take approximately 2 months to settle.

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First, too many people still aren't complying with social distancing, and hell there are known cases of people who have tested positive for the virus refusing to self-isolate. As long as people aren't cooperating, the effectiveness of social distancing is going to be weakened.

Second, we need to see a pattern of decreasing new cases for a long time before we can really resume daily life. China took months to get to that point and their response was much better than ours.

Not to mention schools in my state have already closed until May, so at the very least, where I am, early May is the absolute earliest projection for a large portion of the population.

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could take longer than 2 months. Where do you get 2 months from?

may earliest but that's under ideal circumstances

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AirJordan2345 posted...

could take longer than 2 months. Where do you get 2 months from?

He just explained his prediction based on how China did it

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Most graphs I've seen predict the peak of this outbreak is going to be April, I assume people will try to get back to normal in late May but based on models that's probably not a good idea. It should be into June but it probably won't be.
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Things wont be fully normal until theres a vaccine (maybe the end of summer 2021)

If the US gets serious about having lockdowns everywhere and developing the capability to tear and trace reliably things might be able to start easing up in a few months.

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When have things ever been 'normal'?
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Until we have a vaccine there is no normal. We may be able to loosen the restrictions a few months from now, but expect the world to stay in pandemic alert until mid-2021.

Ad even then, it's possible the societal and economic changes caused by this crisis will be so heavy the world will never be the same again. For example, I think a sizable portion of jobs are going to get eliminated and UBI will be implemented for good in quite a few countries.

Normal enough by the end of June, not really back to life as we knew it until October.

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but when do most of you think most businesses will re open? i mean how can some of em hold on for much longer?

Easter

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June for Europe, maybe July for most parts of the US. Mass gathering events another few months later. International travel could have strict restrictions for years.

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Literally never. The state will never surrender its power. It will hang the threat of this virus over us indefinitely.

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AirJordan2345 posted...

but when do most of you think most businesses will re open? i mean how can some of em hold on for much longer?

The economic damage will be even worse if restrictions are lifted too soon. People aren't going to want to go out to the movies or a restaurant when they could literally die from it, and the more fully we implement restrictions now the sooner we can actually get to the point of containing the spread through less severe means like contact tracing and targeted isolation.

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Relatedly

https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1244388247712735234

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July/August will be when people who are not suffering immediate economic consequences will start getting frustrated with the lockdown. It's hard to say when the government will allow things to go back to normal as it is dependent on containing the virus (not just in the country but all other neighboring countries) and if the virus hasn't adapted/new virus has popped up.

I'm guessing July/August.

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I'd love to see these models you guys are looking at that predict the pandemic lasting this long.
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v_charon posted...

I'd love to see these models you guys are looking at that predict the pandemic lasting this long.

There are two ways it stops
1) enough people get it so herd immunity kicks in (likely over half the population, which is a completely unacceptable scenario)
2) a vaccine is developed

the timeline on a vaccine is 12-18 months.

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Lockdown will probably last, in varying degrees of intensity, until August.
It could be done by late June or early July, but the powers that be will try to force everyone to start going back to business as usual early and we'll get a second wave, making it take longer and do more damage.

Bank on it.

But yes we'll most likely be in alert mode into next year.

"Back to normal" as in totally unrestricted air travel and large gatherings of thousands? Next year, no question in my mind.

But the development of therapeutics, especially if some of the existing ones currently undergoing trials become indicated, will likely help to ease the more extreme restrictions. But even those won't become widely available until June. We won't even know if the trials are successful until nearly May.

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Never

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