Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change

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Corrik7
02/15/20 3:15:54 PM
#402:


red sox 777 posted...
Also you guys should stop before Trump moves onto "some people are calling me a King."
He wouldn't be wrong. Lol.

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KamikazePotato
02/15/20 3:55:45 PM
#403:


https://twitter.com/ClaraJeffery/status/1228699016629669888

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metroid composite
02/15/20 4:02:20 PM
#404:


LordoftheMorons posted...
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1228666362886750208?s=21

He is fucking insane

That tweet is a lot like Phoenix Wright case 1-5 where the head of police is like "if you prosecute me and fail to find me guilty I will throw you in jail".

Basically Trump is declaring himself to be a Phoenix Wright villain.

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Kinglicious
02/15/20 4:04:16 PM
#405:


Man, that's a common phrase.

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LordoftheMorons
02/15/20 4:05:18 PM
#406:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
Lotm can you just support the guy who will bring out the youth vote. Please. We can get back to policy in 4 years let's do high turn out now
Well, I would seriously consider it if I believed the turnout hypothesis and that Bernie is uniquely electable, but I just dont.

This piece, for example, is pretty convincing about conversion being much more of a driver in the Dems 2018 gains than increased turnout (also noting that increased turnout does not necessarily help Dems; it could also be that Republicans are especially motivated to vote against Bernie):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/no-radical-policies-wont-drive-election-winning-turnout/ 2020/02/14/07a0b602-4e97-11ea-b721-9f4cdc90bc1c_story.html (remove space)

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ChaosTonyV4
02/15/20 4:16:50 PM
#407:


Literally

ChaosTonyV4 posted...
https://twitter.com/pixelatedboat/status/1228201735966953473?s=21


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DoomTheGyarados
02/15/20 4:24:40 PM
#408:


Lotm what do you think when you read Tony's tweet

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LordoftheMorons
02/15/20 4:30:08 PM
#409:


I don't see any particular reason to think that a more progressive candidate would have done better in those elections.

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Corrik7
02/15/20 4:32:11 PM
#410:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
Lotm what do you think when you read Tony's tweet
It's clearly sarcasm.

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HeroDelTiempo17
02/15/20 4:34:12 PM
#411:


LordoftheMorons posted...
I don't see any particular reason to think that a more progressive candidate would have done better in those elections.

Is Obama 2008 not convincing at all?

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FFDragon
02/15/20 4:34:56 PM
#412:


I think nominating a moderate is the absolute worst possible thing the Dems could do this year.

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metroid composite
02/15/20 4:36:55 PM
#413:


I mean, worth noting that the times democrats have won has been times when they're campaigning as more progressive (Obama, Bill Clinton's first election, Jimmy Carter). All the times when they've lost have been times when they've been campaigning as a centrist moderate (Kerry, Hillary, Gore).

They didn't actually need to be all that progressive when you pulled back the curtain (Obama was a lot more centrist/right wing than how he campaigned), but I think it is important to inspire people, promise them that you'll bring real change and improve their lives.

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LordoftheMorons
02/15/20 4:38:08 PM
#414:


HeroDelTiempo17 posted...
Is Obama 2008 not convincing at all?
Obama had Bill Clinton level charisma and was running after two terms of Bush (who at that time had an approval rating of ~20% due to the financial crisis). (Also he wasn't particularly left of Hillary, who also would have won that election).

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red sox 777
02/15/20 4:38:33 PM
#415:


Conversion is more important than turnout and that's why you need Bernie. Why would someone who voted Trump over Hillary be converted by Biden? He's like Hillary 2.

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KamikazePotato
02/15/20 4:42:16 PM
#416:


metroid composite posted...
They didn't actually need to be all that progressive when you pulled back the curtain (Obama was a lot more centrist/right wing than how he campaigned), but I think it is important to inspire people, promise them that you'll bring real change and improve their lives.

Ding ding ding.

Candidates that inspire people tend to win elections.

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DoomTheGyarados
02/15/20 4:44:38 PM
#417:


Also not to be that guy but Bernie supporters are totally going to hold you hostage. They are young and don't like being told no. If bernie wins the the most delegates even by 1 and they go with someone else the democratic party loses an entire generation.

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LordoftheMorons
02/15/20 4:46:56 PM
#418:


I dont know, I personally find Donald Trump to be pretty inspiring. Not many Republicans would drive me to vote for even Tulsi Gabbard!

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KamikazePotato
02/15/20 4:47:28 PM
#419:


Trump absolutely inspired a lot of people.

Which says a lot about how many shitty people there are, but I digress.

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DoomTheGyarados
02/15/20 4:47:40 PM
#420:


He inspires his base tons. no one has ever won an election being just against someone.

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red13n
02/15/20 4:48:21 PM
#421:


LordoftheMorons posted...
Obama had Bill Clinton level charisma and was running after two terms of Bush (who at that time had an approval rating of ~20% due to the financial crisis). (Also he wasn't particularly left of Hillary, who also would have won that election).
If Hillary were the nominee in 2008 we'd be talking about what Republican would have the honor of getting obliterated by Obama right now.

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red sox 777
02/15/20 4:49:25 PM
#422:




LordoftheMorons posted...
I dont know, I personally find Donald Trump to be pretty inspiring. Not many Republicans would drive me to vote for even Tulsi Gabbard!

I mean if you want to go with the exact same strategy as 2016, I guess that's your right. But don't be surprised with the result!

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LordoftheMorons
02/15/20 4:50:42 PM
#423:


red13n posted...
If Hillary were the nominee in 2008 we'd be talking about what Republican would have the honor of getting obliterated by Obama right now.
Yeah in retrospect that probably would have been the better timeline

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DoomTheGyarados
02/15/20 4:50:52 PM
#424:


red13n posted...
If Hillary were the nominee in 2008 we'd be talking about what Republican would have the honor of getting obliterated by Obama right now.

Red you made me sad

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TheRock1525
02/15/20 4:59:00 PM
#425:


I can't imagine Clinton losing to McCain.

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FFDragon
02/15/20 5:02:12 PM
#426:


I can imagine Clinton losing to McCain tbqh

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Paratroopa1
02/15/20 5:03:42 PM
#427:


McCain was polling ahead of Obama before the economy collapsed
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Xeybozn
02/15/20 5:07:26 PM
#428:


red13n posted...

If Hillary were the nominee in 2008 we'd be talking about what Republican would have the honor of getting obliterated by Obama right now.

How does Obama become president in this scenario? The way I see it, Hillary beats McCain but probably loses re-election in 2012. By 2016, Obama is either tied to Hillary as her former VP or he's just another generic senator with too much history to convincingly promise change.
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Jakyl25
02/15/20 5:17:27 PM
#429:


Forget all those timelines

The key election to go back and change is 2000
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Corrik7
02/15/20 5:20:42 PM
#430:


metroid composite posted...
but I think it is important to inspire people, promise them that you'll bring real change and improve their lives.
Lie to them. Yes.

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Jakyl25
02/15/20 5:22:52 PM
#431:


Corrik7 posted...

Lie to them. Yes.


Bingo

Obamas lies ruined any hope I had that this country has a functioning democracy
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Corrik7
02/15/20 5:24:02 PM
#432:


Jakyl25 posted...
Bingo

Obamas lies ruined any hope I had that this country has a functioning democracy
It happens, bud. Learn from it.

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Jakyl25
02/15/20 5:25:49 PM
#433:


I did learn! I learned to never trust any politician ever again.
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Corrik7
02/15/20 5:29:19 PM
#434:


Jakyl25 posted...
I did learn! I learned to never trust any politician ever again.
That's why Trump was a good candidate in 2016. We got tired of Politicians and their lies, so we brought someone in from the outside to drain the swamp.

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ChaosTonyV4
02/15/20 5:30:09 PM
#435:


I wouldnt say Obamas lies ruined my hope, but all the people post-Obama who insist its impossible to have hope while insisting Obama was the real deal sure are trying.

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ChaosTonyV4
02/15/20 5:31:00 PM
#436:


Corrik7 posted...
That's why Trump was a good candidate in 2016. We got tired of Politicians and their lies, so we brought someone in from the outside to drain the swamp.

Trump cranked the lies and swamp up to 11.

And if the Dems respond to that by nominating Bloomberg, Im done.

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Corrik7
02/15/20 5:32:17 PM
#437:


Bloomberg has been metoo'd. He is done as far as Democrats are concerned. He wasted a lot of money trying though.

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Corrik7
02/15/20 5:32:50 PM
#438:


Question is how salty do Democrats make Bloomberg in the process of taking him down.

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Leafeon13N
02/15/20 5:34:46 PM
#439:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...


And if the Dems respond to that by nominating Bloomberg, Im done.
Said it before but Bloomberg is where I am done with humanity and vote for Trump to give everyone what they deserve.
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Jakyl25
02/15/20 5:39:36 PM
#440:


Corrik7 posted...

That's why Trump was a good candidate in 2016. We got tired of Politicians and their lies, so we brought someone in from the outside to drain the swamp.


Yeah and guess what he lied
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Corrik7
02/15/20 5:40:44 PM
#441:


Jakyl25 posted...
Yeah and guess what he lied

Jakyl25 posted...
Yeah and guess what he lied
Trump made my life better while Obama did not.

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Jakyl25
02/15/20 5:45:07 PM
#442:


Corrik7 posted...


Trump made my life better while Obama did not.


Thats a non-sequiter based on what Im replying to.

I said all politicians lie

You said Trump did good as a politician because he promised to drain the swamp

I said he lied about that

Making your life better has nothing to do with that chain of statements
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Jakyl25
02/15/20 5:48:56 PM
#443:


I posit that you cannot become a successful politician without becoming a liar.

So no outsider can ever buck the trend of lying establishment politicians
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Corrik7
02/15/20 5:49:53 PM
#444:


metroid composite posted...
but I think it is important to inspire people, promise them that you'll bring real change and improve their lives.


There is the comment this chain started from.

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Jakyl25
02/15/20 5:51:29 PM
#445:


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xp1337
02/15/20 6:01:52 PM
#446:


Paratroopa1 posted...
McCain was polling ahead of Obama before the economy collapsed
Too lazy right now to dig up the polling timeline but wasn't this in the immediate few days after the Republican National Convention? There's always a bump to a party right after their convention so if that's where it lined up I'm not really taking that as predictive, because IIRC Obama led the entire race except a small stretch right around there. The prevailing wisdom (i know, i know, lol 2016) at the time in 2008 was that the Democratic Primary was the real race.

I think in Earth-2 where Clinton defeats Obama in 2008 you get a Clinton victory in 2008. Some Republican wins in 2012 (Romney still probably the favorite but who knows in these butterfly timelines) and then I think Obama wins in 2016 and would likely be on pace to win in 2020 too but again trying to assume thing 12 years down the road in a what-if is yeah. If for some reason Romney looks pretty unbeatable in 2016 (like a hypothetical President Kasich would in Trump's position now) maybe Obama sits out and waits for 2020 idk.

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Corrik7
02/15/20 6:03:26 PM
#447:


McCain had zero shot of winning.

Romney losing was the real headscratcher.

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ChaosTonyV4
02/15/20 6:06:56 PM
#448:


Corrik7 posted...
Trump made my life better while Obama did not.

Lets be fair, its not Obamas fault your life got worse, and we both know that.

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xp1337
02/15/20 6:07:32 PM
#449:


lol i remember Nate Silver going on some cable news show (Scarborough?) in 2012 and basically predicting the exact 2012 map (it was either exact or 49/50, I forget) and they tried to call him absolutely crazy.

538 stays winning

But then 2012 was the era of the right using "unskewed polls!" because they just couldn't comprehend the actual polling showing Obama was going to win and probably without much difficulty.

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KamikazePotato
02/15/20 6:09:58 PM
#450:


Unskewed Polls was the baby version of Alternative Facts.

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Jakyl25
02/15/20 6:14:27 PM
#451:


Corrik7 posted...
McCain had zero shot of winning.

Romney losing was the real headscratcher.


Why a head scratcher?
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