Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 258: Imminent Song

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Corrik7
01/11/20 3:22:45 PM
#52:


TheRock1525 posted...
Fun fact: Impeachment support is now at an all time high on 538 at 50.2%.

Since he was formally impeached, Republican support has risen over 4% and and independent over 2.5%.

But you're right, impeachment was a guaranteed win for Trump and now he's gonna win the electoral college by 200 votes.


47.1% for removal. The 50% thing is for impeachment since March 1st which has literally already happened.

Independents at 41% which is significant.

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Nelson_Mandela
01/11/20 3:23:10 PM
#53:


I think blood is on foolmo's hands for refusing to set himself on fire rather than purchase goods that are available due to colonialism and pay taxes that fund the military industrial complex

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foolm0r0n
01/11/20 3:42:36 PM
#54:


Not_an_Owl posted...
what if I voted for hillary because at least she wasn't donald fucking trump but think war is bad
Depends how much you REALLY think war is bad, which could be measured how you supported her vs others in the primaries and how you support anti-war third parties.

It's not an exclusive moral ground at all. Like I said before, the VAST majority of people truly and deeply hate war and oppose it. However there are a ton of people who do put political victory and self-pacification over actually being anti-war. You would obviously agree that picking the 2nd worst war candidate is not washing your hands of blood.

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foolm0r0n
01/11/20 3:45:36 PM
#55:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
But I think the 100 million+ people who died from Communist regimes' internal reforms would disagree.
They wouldn't but glad you're able to demonstrate your excuses. That really is pretty honest.

Nelson_Mandela posted...
I think blood is on foolmo's hands for refusing to set himself on fire rather than purchase goods that are available due to colonialism and pay taxes that fund the military industrial complex
The important thing is that if I'm guilty then you somehow get to feel better about yourself. I definitely don't need to be reminded about how much war my taxes directly pay for though.

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ChaosTonyV4
01/11/20 3:48:06 PM
#56:


foolm0r0n posted...
You would obviously agree that picking the 2nd worst war candidate is not washing your hands of blood.

Exactly.

We came, we saw, he died. - Hillary Clinton, without the slightest remorse that Libya devolved into a hellacious country with open slave markets.

I have zero doubt Trump would feel the same way or worse (I mean he literally cant help bragging about war crimes), but lets not act like Hillary was some anti-war candidate.

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red sox 777
01/11/20 3:50:38 PM
#57:


War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. Long live the Republican Party!

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Nelson_Mandela
01/11/20 3:50:44 PM
#58:


foolm0r0n posted...
I definitely don't need to be reminded about how much war my taxes directly pay for though.
You certainly do, you ass

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LordoftheMorons
01/11/20 3:53:56 PM
#59:


https://twitter.com/MidwinCharles/status/1215463626624073728?s=20

@red_sox_777

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red sox 777
01/11/20 4:00:36 PM
#60:


LordoftheMorons posted...
https://twitter.com/MidwinCharles/status/1215463626624073728?s=20

@red_sox_777

He made it clear the disagreement is about policies. The Democrats support horrible policies.

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foolm0r0n
01/11/20 4:08:05 PM
#61:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
You certainly do, you ass
Why? Is basing my entire political philosophy on it not enough?

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foolm0r0n
01/11/20 4:09:58 PM
#62:


Not_an_Owl posted...
incredibly exclusive moral high ground
Also I think it's really, really sad that criticizing war could ever be interpreted as moral elitism

I don't care if someone think their shit tastes like caviar because of their anti-war sentiment - they are an ally

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ChaosTonyV4
01/11/20 4:13:39 PM
#63:


LordoftheMorons posted...
https://twitter.com/MidwinCharles/status/1215463626624073728?s=20

@red_sox_777

What does the 196 to nothing part of this mean?

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red sox 777
01/11/20 4:20:41 PM
#64:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
What does the 196 to nothing part of this mean?

196 Republicans voted against impeachment, 0 Republicans voted for it.

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LordoftheMorons
01/11/20 4:21:51 PM
#65:


Only because Amash was kicked out of the party for being for it!

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Not_an_Owl
01/11/20 4:22:02 PM
#66:


foolm0r0n posted...
Also I think it's really, really sad that criticizing war could ever be interpreted as moral elitism

I don't care if someone think their shit tastes like caviar because of their anti-war sentiment - they are an ally
I don't think criticizing war is moral elitism. I think that your particular brand of moral elitism includes criticizing anyone who isn't as virulently anti-establishment as you because you think that anyone who supports anyone even remotely mainline Democrat or Republican is a bloodthirsty warmonger.

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ChaosTonyV4
01/11/20 4:23:00 PM
#67:


red sox 777 posted...
196 Republicans voted against impeachment, 0 Republicans voted for it.

But he literally just talked about Democrats stick together like it was a bad thing.

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Nelson_Mandela
01/11/20 4:26:55 PM
#69:


foolm0r0n posted...
Why? Is basing my entire political philosophy on it not enough?
If you truly value human life then you wouldn't contribute a penny to our nation's genocidal warmongering.

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TheRock1525
01/11/20 4:57:12 PM
#70:


Corrik7 posted...


47.1% for removal. The 50% thing is for impeachment since March 1st which has literally already happened.

Independents at 41% which is significant.
???



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Corrik7
01/11/20 5:16:03 PM
#71:


TheRock1525 posted...
???

That is counting impeachment polls. He is already impeached.

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xp1337
01/11/20 5:40:55 PM
#72:


538 tracks both impeachment and removal, and on impeachment specificially it has a few different models.

Its model that tracks only polling of just removal has 47.1% support among all respondants and 41% among self-identified Independents. It also does not have a number for opposing removal (or no opinion) it only tracks the number for those who express support.

Its impeachment model has a few different forms since it had been running longer and covered a wider range of questions as the situation developed. That model stretches back to before the Mueller Report being released, after all. It gives you options to adjust the model to only count polls asking if the House should begin the impeachment process or to only include polls specifically asking about impeachment directly. Its default mode includes all those polls together and currently sits at the 50.2% support / 46.2% oppose, the support number today of 50.2% actually isn't the all-time high, it was at 50.3% on October 14th (in terms of real world events this was early in the inquiry process, about when depositions began.) Though obviously today's number would be the second highest it has been.

Interestingly(?) if you filter the model to only include polls that directly ask for support of impeachment and/or impeachment+remove and filter out the process polls, the support level for impeachment sits at 50.3% today and in fact the past few days represent the highest it has ever been, crossing to above 50% for the first time on January 5th at 50.5% which is that model's all-time high. Today's number is again the model's second highest support number.

While impeachment has happened, polling outfits are still asking impeach questions, only now they take the obvious past tense form of "Do you approve or disapprove of the House impeaching Trump?" Many outfits ask both approve/disapprove impeachment and approve/disapprove removal as separate questions to this day hence the slightly different models.

Verdict: TheRock specifically was talking about support for impeachment and while he was incorrect about it being an all-time high for the model (understandable if mobile since apparently you can't do the handy "move the mouse around to see the numbers for every individual day" thing to verify that actually there was a single day a few months ago where the model went 0.1% higher) is therefore right in spirit. Corrik bringing up the removal numbers is... not what TheRock was talking about, that's a different model. Those are two different questions with different models. The numbers shown on the remove model are stated correctly it's just... not what Rock was speaking about. Impeachment polls are still being asked, conducted, and included in the model even though impeachment has happened and it is true the model shows that public support for impeachment has increased after it formally happened when the public was asked about it.

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red sox 777
01/11/20 5:43:12 PM
#73:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
But he literally just talked about Democrats stick together like it was a bad thing.

I mean Democrats obviously don't stick together either. Sometimes Trump's words are just misstatements of truth.

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Nelson_Mandela
01/11/20 6:10:19 PM
#74:


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1216114135529902081?s=19

This is Trump's Churchill moment. If you honestly can't find yourself on the side of Trump and the protesters, you need to seriously reevaluate your priorities.

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ChaosTonyV4
01/11/20 6:14:07 PM
#75:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1216114135529902081?s=19

This is Trump's Churchill moment. If you honestly can't find yourself on the side of Trump and the protesters, you need to seriously reevaluate your priorities.
.
Dude literally just doubled down on sanctions that are going to crush the people.

No wonder he has 95% approval amongst Republicans with how easily youre not just manipulated into supporting him, but saying shit as bombastic and goofy as this.

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red sox 777
01/11/20 6:20:18 PM
#76:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1216114135529902081?s=19

This is Trump's Churchill moment. If you honestly can't find yourself on the side of Trump and the protesters, you need to seriously reevaluate your priorities.

Why would liberal protesters in cities represent the Iranian people any more than they do the American people?

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Nelson_Mandela
01/11/20 6:24:57 PM
#77:


red sox 777 posted...
Why would liberal protesters in cities represent the Iranian people any more than they do the American people?
Because they are true liberals fighting for freedom, not leftists fighting to take away yours

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Nelson_Mandela
01/11/20 6:26:48 PM
#78:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Dude literally just doubled down on sanctions that are going to crush the people.
Sanctions won't do anything except embolden the people fighting against their kleptocratic government.

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Nelson_Mandela
01/11/20 6:31:58 PM
#79:


red sox 777 posted...
Why would liberal protesters in cities represent the Iranian people any more than they do the American people?
Also these people are risking their lives. There are no real stakes for any American protesters anymore.

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red sox 777
01/11/20 6:41:47 PM
#80:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
Also these people are risking their lives. There are no real stakes for any American protesters anymore.

Yes, that's true. But they probably don't represent the majority of the people over there.

Would you be willing to accept the outcome of a free election in Iran? Rules are Iran is divided into provinces and given an electoral college. The Republican Party USA and Russia to serve as joint monitors.

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metroid composite
01/11/20 6:51:41 PM
#81:


https://www.cracked.com/blog/why-corporations-love-making-movies-about-evil-corporations/

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metroid composite
01/11/20 7:15:01 PM
#82:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
Also these people are risking their lives. There are no real stakes for any American protesters anymore.
That's not exactly true given that there have been deaths in protests in the US recently (Heather Heyer for example). Protestors of the Dakota Access Pipeline were badly injured in some cases, when police threw concussive grenades. Some were arrested (including journalists and Jill Stein) and a few were actually prosecuted. The state also had proposed a bill that would make it legal to run over protestors with cars, but I don't think that ever passed.

Outside of physical threats, there are other threats. Technology is changing the nature of protests in the US. Police can spoof a cell phone tower and scan the phone information of everyone in a crowd (or everyone who brings their cell phone). Facial recognition technology is also being used regularly. Sometimes if the government does not like the cause you can end up on an FBI watchlist as well (happened to some leaders in the black lives matter movement).

And regardless I don't think there needs to be risk of serious consequences for protests to at least mean something. Democracy is not supposed to be fire and forget--in between elections we're supposed to be able to show politicians that we dislike a particular decision they are making. In theory, they are supposed to see these protests realize that they should change course or they will lose votes. Even without risk of physical harm or risk of ending up tracked by the police, protests still take time and effort, still show that people care about an issue. Politicians ignoring all protests is a sign of a weak or broken democracy. (Obviously you can't listen to every protestor, you can't please all the people all of the time, but ideally protests let a politician know when a move would be extremely unpopular).

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Nelson_Mandela
01/11/20 7:33:12 PM
#83:


red sox 777 posted...
Yes, that's true. But they probably don't represent the majority of the people over there.

Would you be willing to accept the outcome of a free election in Iran? Rules are Iran is divided into provinces and given an electoral college. The Republican Party USA and Russia to serve as joint monitors.
Nothing would make me happier

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LordoftheMorons
01/11/20 8:19:28 PM
#84:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1216114135529902081?s=19

This is Trump's Churchill moment. If you honestly can't find yourself on the side of Trump and the protesters, you need to seriously reevaluate your priorities.
Trump cares about the Iranian people so much that he banned them from entering the US...!

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Corrik7
01/11/20 10:28:08 PM
#85:


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-proud-democrat-even-though-wont-pay-party-dues

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foolm0r0n
01/11/20 10:30:11 PM
#86:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
If you truly value human life then you wouldn't contribute a penny to our nation's genocidal warmongering.
How neocons wish that everyone else believed their delusion that things can't change

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foolm0r0n
01/11/20 10:36:21 PM
#87:


Not_an_Owl posted...
I think that your particular brand of moral elitism includes criticizing anyone who isn't as virulently anti-establishment as you because you think that anyone who supports anyone even remotely mainline Democrat or Republican is a bloodthirsty warmonger.
Who are you actually defending right now? Give some examples so we have an idea, cuz it just sounds like Hillary supporters. I already gave a bunch of examples of who are and are not warmongers, and the line is pretty mild.

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foolm0r0n
01/11/20 10:37:59 PM
#88:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
Because they are true liberals fighting for freedom, not leftists fighting to take away yours
They want women to have more rights

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TheRock1525
01/12/20 12:25:52 AM
#89:




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DoomTheGyarados
01/12/20 12:33:21 AM
#90:


Corrik7 posted...
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-proud-democrat-even-though-wont-pay-party-dues

It's obvious that the organization trying to screw over progressive primary challengers like she was just two years ago isn't getting money from her.

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LordoftheMorons
01/12/20 12:36:18 AM
#91:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
It's obvious that the organization trying to screw over progressive primary challengers like she was just two years ago isn't getting money from her.
What do you mean by "screw over"? Of course the DCCC would protect their members. That's the entire point of the organization.

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Wanglicious
01/12/20 1:33:12 AM
#92:


in that case, it's obvious which district that needs to be cut is going to be cut. she can maintain her money and support as an individual and not an elected official.

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xp1337
01/12/20 2:33:18 AM
#93:


who in the world is talking about eliminating AOC's district? like where is this theory even coming from. this is the second time in the last few days you've flown it out here

NY is probably losing a seat or two in 2020 but beyond that I have no idea where you're hearing this talk like the plan is already in motion.

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Corrik7
01/12/20 2:39:39 AM
#94:


It's been stated but by nowhere reputable.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/261-politics/78298838

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Kinglicious
01/12/20 3:51:47 AM
#95:


She's had district problems for a while because her district has a lot of illegal immigrants and there's fears of the already existing underreporting escalating further. She herself addressed this issue months ago. Like almost a year ago.

https://theintercept.com/2019/02/09/ocasio-cortez-district-redistricting-2020/

It's literally what she's said herself. The biggest problem she faces are Dems, not Republicans. Hell, she's recently mentioned that there's a ton of people fighting for her seat right now. As it stands we're losing one for sure, a second is possible depending on the numbers. If she's going to continue pissing off every other official, then the people who the state senate and state assembly pick aren't likely going to be people who like her. So tie together her having few political allies at either state or federal level with a district expected to have low turnout on a candidate that is actively wants to be a pain in the ass and you've got yourself a solid recipe to cut her out procedurally. It'll be a lot easier than electorally.

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DoomTheGyarados
01/12/20 6:25:46 AM
#96:


LordoftheMorons posted...
What do you mean by "screw over"? Of course the DCCC would protect their members. That's the entire point of the organization.

Primaries are good for the American people. Choice is good. Not allowing people or organizations to help primary contenders along with sitting members of congress is honestly a horrific look.

There's a reason why DCCC fundraising sucks.

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Ashethan
01/12/20 9:04:49 AM
#97:


Cutting AOC's district just means she wins the new district, so that'd be dumb of the DCCC to cut her district to try to get rid of her.

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foolm0r0n
01/12/20 10:00:05 AM
#98:


https://twitter.com/paulwsj/status/1216034452037611520?s=19

Good thing the Fed is an independent organization so this stuff isn't possible!!

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Suprak the Stud
01/12/20 10:05:33 AM
#99:


Ashethan posted...
Cutting AOC's district just means she wins the new district, so that'd be dumb of the DCCC to cut her district to try to get rid of her.

Yeah, plus if the DCCC has the magical ability to gerrymander things so well that even AOC (one of the most recognizable figures in the democratic party who just beat a democratic incumbent anyway) is in trouble, why wouldn't they do it in such a way to eliminate a republican seat?

Frank Lutz is a big dummy is the point I'm trying to make here.

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ChaosTonyV4
01/12/20 10:12:32 AM
#100:


foolm0r0n posted...
Good thing the Fed is an independent organization so this stuff isn't possible!!

This seems...bad.

edit: not foolmo's comment, the Fed being so blatantly influenced

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foolm0r0n
01/12/20 11:49:18 AM
#101:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
the Fed being so blatantly influenced
That's the entire point since it was invented. I honestly don't get how they convinced ANYONE that the thing is independent, let alone the entire country.

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Not_an_Owl
01/12/20 11:49:59 AM
#102:


foolm0r0n posted...
Who are you actually defending right now? Give some examples so we have an idea, cuz it just sounds like Hillary supporters. I already gave a bunch of examples of who are and are not warmongers, and the line is pretty mild.
In 2012, either Obama or Romney was going to win the Presidency. There was no reality in which any other candidate won. They were both hawks. Given that, what was the anti-war voter supposed to do in that election? Denounce both of them and their supporters as bloodsoaked warmongers and refuse to vote? Or analyze both candidates' platforms beyond their approach to military and foreign policy and cast a vote for one of them based on what how that voter thought the rest of their platform would affect their life?

Put another way - if candidate A promises to give you $500, candidate B promises to kill your dog, and both promise to stay embroiled in Middle Eastern affairs, who should you vote for? And if your answer is "neither", are you really willing to leave your dog's life up to the rest of the electorate?

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