Board 8 > Box Office Topic II

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scarletspeed7
09/05/19 9:39:42 PM
#1:


Ahead of a potentially massive opening for It: Chapter Two! Will this movie break the stranglehold of Disney at the top of the year's list? And can it help swing the year around since it's down 4% against 2018 through the same point?
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MetalmindStats
09/05/19 10:06:26 PM
#2:


My weekend predictions for It Chapter Two mania:

1. $100.5 million It Chapter Two
2. $5.5 million Angel Has Fallen
3. $5.2 million Good Boys
4. $3.8 million Overcomer
5. $3.7 million The Lion King
6. $3.1 million Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
7. $2.8 million Ready or Not
8. $2.5 million Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark
9. $2.1 million Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
10. $1.8 million Dora and the Lost City of Gold
11. $1.6 million Spider-Man: Far From Home
12. $1.5 million The Peanut Butter Falcon
13. $1.4 million The Angry Birds Movie 2
14. $1.2 million Ne Zha

I would honestly say it's more likely than not that It 2 opens under $100 million at this point, and it will inevitably be too frontloaded to come all that close to its predecessor, but it would be nice to exceed the symbolic milestone for some sort of good news.

As for the year at large, September, November, and December all look potentially record-breaking, and October could surprise, so I'm counting on us being able to completely close the gap with 2018 by year's end. Still not great for such a stacked year at the outset, but exhibition will live.
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scarletspeed7
09/05/19 10:10:54 PM
#3:


I want to say it tops 100 only because of the very light end of August. People usually start getting antsy for something to watch at that point.
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colliding
09/05/19 10:11:25 PM
#4:


It's gonna do more like 120
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ninkendo
09/05/19 10:20:15 PM
#5:


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scarletspeed7
09/05/19 10:26:06 PM
#6:


Do you have long weekends shifts?
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ninkendo
09/05/19 10:30:21 PM
#7:


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scarletspeed7
09/06/19 1:02:36 PM
#8:


So 10.5 mill on previews last night. That's... disappointing imo. I think that probably corroborates Metalmind's prediction honestly. It's more in line with a 98 million opening at this point, probably. Hopefully it's not THAT frontloaded on a preview, but it's possible.
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ninkendo
09/06/19 1:17:12 PM
#9:


I rewatched Chapter 1 last night

I'll go see 2 either tonight or sometime tomorrow
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scarletspeed7
09/06/19 1:18:12 PM
#10:


Oh, nice. I saw some people complaining about it on Facebook, which surprised me. I can't imagine it's MUCH worse than the first.
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MetalmindStats
09/06/19 6:06:22 PM
#11:


scarletspeed7 posted...
So 10.5 mill on previews last night. That's... disappointing imo. I think that probably corroborates Metalmind's prediction honestly. It's more in line with a 98 million opening at this point, probably. Hopefully it's not THAT frontloaded on a preview, but it's possible.

I certainly agree that it's a disappointing sum, but I have to disagree that it corroborates my prediction, even though that's what Deadline is currently calling for.

In addition to the normal factor of a franchise finale being more frontloaded than an original movie, It 2's previews started 2 hours before the first movie's. That means it almost certainly had more Thursday night showtimes than the original movie, but due to its longer length, it likely has fewer showings than the first movie over the rest of the weekend. Even if its Thursday-to-weekend multiple is somehow right in line with its predecessor, It 2 will fall short at $95 million, but I think it's most likely to settle for the $85-90 million WB supposedly expected at this point. I would argue all the signs were there, but I chose to ignore my usual pessimism in favor of hoping for a surprise. Of course, it is still possible that the reduced anticipation for It 2 means that it will be less frontloaded anyways, so I suppose we'll see about that.
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scarletspeed7
09/06/19 6:36:04 PM
#12:


It's strange to think that length could play a factor here even though it didn't with Avengers.
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ninkendo
09/06/19 6:38:10 PM
#13:


People don't wanna get spoopy for 3 hours I guess
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ninkendo
09/07/19 12:17:06 AM
#14:


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scarletspeed7
09/07/19 4:22:26 PM
#15:


IT 2 is tracking about 13 million behind IT 1 after the first day.

@MetalmindStats
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colliding
09/07/19 4:26:12 PM
#16:


Did I say 120 million? I meant to say, ah who cares. I'm terrible at box office guessing
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ZenOfThunder
09/07/19 4:26:27 PM
#17:


:O
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scarletspeed7
09/07/19 4:29:02 PM
#18:


colliding posted...
Did I say 120 million? I meant to say, ah who cares. I'm terrible at box office guessing

Like, it wasn't a stupid guess. I'm floored that the massive amount of fan anticipation just died such a death. I didn't predict to your heights, but still... man.
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MetalmindStats
09/07/19 4:37:12 PM
#19:


scarletspeed7 posted...
IT 2 is tracking about 13 million behind IT 1 after the first day.

@MetalmindStats

I have one word and that is: oof.

As I said, the signs were there - alarmingly poor presales compared to the original in particular - but this still isn't good at all for what should be a frontloaded finale.
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colliding
09/07/19 4:43:31 PM
#20:


maybe people who don't know the story are turned off that they're adults now?
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scarletspeed7
09/08/19 12:51:21 PM
#21:


Well, 91 million. That's probably the end of this year's run against 2018, honestly.
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MetalmindStats
09/12/19 6:18:12 PM
#22:


My domestic weekend predictions for September 13-15, 2019:

1. $35.8 million Hustlers
2. $33.8 million It Chapter Two
3. $5.1 million The Goldfinch
4. $4.1 million Angel Has Fallen
5. $4.0 million Good Boys
6. $3.2 million The Lion King
7. $2.8 million Overcomer
8. $2.5 million Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
9. $1.7 million The Peanut Butter Falcon
10. $1.6 million Dora and the Lost City of Gold
11. $1.5 million Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
12. $1.4 million Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

Hustlers is looking encouraging, but not this strong - more like $25-30 million based on presales, tracking, etc. I just want to believe that it overindexes with a huge upset, and it's not impossible. The Goldfinch, on the other hand, is DOA - even presales have been awfully weak, even though novel fans should be pushing them higher than similar movies.

It Chapter Two is looking like it will bleed further after an underwhelming opening. Metrics such as its CinemaScore - identical to the first movie despite having the advantages of being a sequel and a franchise finale - and its 80% positive RT verified audience score point to lackluster audience reception. Most pointedly of all, its daily pace has lagged far behind the first movie, with its first Wednesday weighing in at just 22% of its first Sunday, versus 28% for the original movie.
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scarletspeed7
09/12/19 7:57:50 PM
#23:


Based purely off of anecdotal evidence, I've seen a lot of negativity surrounding IT on Facebook and Twitter, so I think your number for its second weekend is accurate. I have absolutely no read on Hustlers, and Goldfinch is definitely toast.

Its pretty damning that Hobbs and Shaw can stay in the Top 10. That wouldn't have happened last year.
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ninkendo
09/12/19 8:18:34 PM
#24:


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scarletspeed7
09/12/19 9:06:47 PM
#25:


That's all that really matters!
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MetalmindStats
09/16/19 8:46:36 PM
#26:


https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2019&wknd=37&p=.htm

Weekend actuals are in.

Hustlers scored a great debut just a bit short of my highly optimistic prediction. Unfortunately, a B- CinemaScore and current 68% positive RT verified audience rating give it a surprisingly rocky path ahead, making it more likely than not that it falls short of a 3x multiple and $100 million domestically in total. Nonetheless, a typically thrifty STX production and marketing effort means this will turn into a nice success for the beleaguered studio, with a potential profit of $50 million+ in the offing. As for The Goldfinch, wow. The signs that it would bomb were all there, but to the extent of the sixth worst saturated opening of all time, coming in at eighth over a weekend when $5 million would have made the top three? That's truly staggering.

In holdover news, It Chapter Two had a surprisingly decent hold, seemingly benefiting from the combination of Friday the 13th and the very quiet marketplace, which meant no other holdover in the top 12 declined by more than one third from the previous frame. However, while the remaining holds were strong, the fact remains that all of those movies had alarmingly low grosses and per theater averages. The last time we saw a movie in the top 3 make less than $5 million was over the first It's opening weekend, which carried the box office to a much healthier overall sum. Even It 2 is running poorly relative to its wide berth in terms of screens and showtimes.
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scarletspeed7
09/16/19 8:49:39 PM
#27:


So it's up to Downton Abbey to save the year this weekend.
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scarletspeed7
09/19/19 9:02:33 PM
#28:


Just a reminder that Downton Abbey is this weekend. My prediction is that it pulls 20 million even, but my heart says it will set box office records.
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MetalmindStats
09/19/19 9:47:06 PM
#29:


We're looking at one of the most interesting weekends in a long time, as the entire top five could wind up bunched in an extremely tight progression. Here's my hot take on how it all shakes out, based on presales among other factors:

1. $21.7 million Rambo: Last Blood
2. $21.6 million Downton Abbey
3. $17.8 million It Chapter Two
4. $16.6 million Hustlers
5. $13.8 million Ad Astra
6. $2.7 million The Lion King
7. $2.6 million Good Boys
8. $2.3 million Angel Has Fallen
9. $1.7 million Overcomer
10. $1.5 million Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
11. $1.2 million The Peanut Butter Falcon
12. $1.2 million Dora and the Lost City of Gold
13. $1.2 million Brittany Runs a Marathon
14. $880,000 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark
15. $860,000 The Goldfinch
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scarletspeed7
09/21/19 9:46:38 PM
#30:


Fuck yeah Downton Abbey doubling up on Rambo.
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scarletspeed7
09/23/19 6:44:37 PM
#31:


Final totals show Downton Abbey smashing the Focus Features opening record!
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MetalmindStats
09/26/19 6:42:26 PM
#32:


My domestic weekend prediction for September 27-29:

1. $25.5 million Abominable
2. $14.6 million Downton Abbey
3. $9.8 million Hustlers
4. $8.7 million It Chapter Two
5. $8.6 million Ad Astra
6. $8.3 million Rambo: Last Blood
7. $2.3 million Judy
8. $1.6 million Good Boys
9. $1.5 million The Lion King
10. $1.4 million Angel Has Fallen
11. $890,000 Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
12. $850,000 Overcomer

Good show Downton, but this is likely where it comes crashing down with a 50%+ decline, due to fanbase frontloading as manifested by over $4 million of previews included in its opening weekend.

As for Abominable, industry tracking is calling for $17-21 million, and Box Office Pro is corroborating the high end of that range. However, families have hardly been served for the past month plus, and DreamWorks has a solid history of overindexing in such a position, so I opted to bump my prediction a few million ahead.
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pjbasis
09/26/19 6:46:57 PM
#33:


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scarletspeed7
09/26/19 7:20:26 PM
#34:


Neither did most people.
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scarletspeed7
09/28/19 6:33:23 PM
#35:


Downton Abbey actually looking competitive against an underperforming Abominable.
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scarletspeed7
10/01/19 10:20:19 PM
#36:


Interesting factoid: Downton Abbey took back the box office on Monday. Fair to assume that's kids back in school, but even so, that's a very soft overall opening.
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MetalmindStats
10/03/19 10:24:07 PM
#37:


My domestic weekend predictions for October 4-6:

1. $83.1 million Joker
2. $13.8 million Abominable
3. $8.7 million Downton Abbey
4. $6.9 million Hustlers
5. $4.8 million Judy
6. $4.7 million It Chapter Two
7. $4.5 million Ad Astra
8. $3.6 million Rambo: Last Blood
9. $1.8 million War
10. $1.1 million Good Boys
11. $990,000 The Lion King
12. $600,000 Ghostbusters 35th Anniversary
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scarletspeed7
10/04/19 5:36:15 PM
#38:


How about a preview record of 13 million for Joker?
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scarletspeed7
10/07/19 6:22:32 PM
#39:


96.2 is pretty damn good!
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MetalmindStats
10/07/19 9:02:40 PM
#40:


scarletspeed7 posted...
96.2 is pretty damn good!

Indeed. Perhaps most noticeably, Joker's figures have kept improving, going from steadily rising industry tracking to its weekend estimate to an actual almost $3 million ahead of said estimate. In terms of future prospects, Joker seems to have become a water-cooler movie, and word of mouth is average at worst, so I'd expect it to trend in line with Deadpool and Venom to finish over $250 million domestically.

Unfortunately, Joker wasn't enough to stop our year-on-year bleeding, since 2018 had the one-two punch of Venom and A Star is Born at this time, along with stronger holdovers. On the plus side, the rest of October looks quite healthy, and we should be able to come at least decently close to 2018's record for the month.

Internationally, Joker excelled to a $152.2 million debut from most of the world, with particularly huge debuts in South Korea ($16.1 million, fueled by a holiday) and Japan ($7 million), large markets that haven't taken to DC movies in the past. In other news, Gemini Man opened to a healthy $7 million from its initial few markets, including $3 million in France and Germany each, and looks poised to be a solid single for a beleaguered Paramount. In line with the rest of its run to date, Abominable didn't scale great heights in China, with $11.2 million in six days against huge holiday competition.

However, it was arguably local movies that produced the biggest international news this weekend, particularly in China where three overtly nationalist movies combined for over $600 million in 7 days, banking from releases timed for National Day. In India, action-showdown movie War was the big winner of the Gandhi Jayanti holiday with reportedly huge numbers, though I can't cite an estimate in good faith.
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MetalmindStats
10/10/19 7:40:28 PM
#41:


MetalmindStats posted...
In other news, Gemini Man opened to a healthy $7 million from its initial few markets, including $3 million in France and Germany each, and looks poised to be a solid single for a beleaguered Paramount.

Let me correct myself about this, first off. On writing it, I was under the impression that Gemini Man was a relatively thrifty, sub-$100 million production. Its early start is still fine relative to similar movies, but it's not the news Paramount needed to hear after spending almost $140 million on its production alone.

Anyways, my domestic weekend predictions for October 11-13:

1. $48.2 million Joker
2. $24.0 million The Addams Family
3. $21.9 million Gemini Man
4. $6.2 million Abominable
5. $5.2 million Downton Abbey
6. $4.2 million Hustlers
7. $3.5 million Judy
8. $3.3 million It Chapter Two
9. $2.3 million Jexi
10. $1.6 million Ad Astra
11. $1.4 million Rambo: Last Blood
12. $900,000 The Lion King

Joker's superb weekday pace (first Wednesday at 30% of its first Saturday, versus just 18% for Venom - not to mention more than doubling Venom's first Wednesday gross) puts it on pace for an excellent hold for this type of movie. I could easily see it making an extra few million at Gemini Man's expense, but I do still think something like these numbers is the most likely scenario.

The Addams Family is the only opener that's looking healthy; given that it's the UAR venture distributing it, I'm choosing to stay conservative relative to presales and tracking, but I'm rooting for it to come closer to $30 million or more.
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scarletspeed7
10/10/19 8:00:49 PM
#42:


Are superheroes really the only thing that can gain any traction?
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MetalmindStats
10/14/19 6:24:06 PM
#43:


Joker was apparently jealous that foreign-language movies stole the spotlight last weekend, so it held incredibly well pretty much worldwide to ensure that wouldn't happen again.

Its mere 42% North American second weekend decline is already incredible for a comic book movie; to compare: Far From Home sunk 51% against lesser competition, despite burning off OW demand by opening 3 days in advance of its original weekend. However, the real news was internationally, with a staggering $125.3 million second frame, for an eye-popping 18% decline (or 29% in holdovers, filtering out huge openings in France, Germany, and a few more minor territories). Its worldwide total is already at over $500 million after just 12 days.

Joker is clearly not playing like an ordinary comic-book movie, which begs the question: will $1 billion+ worldwide happen? Far From Home had reached $578 million by the end of its second weekend, en route to $1.132 billion in total. If Joker holds equally well from here, it will close with $1.074 billion - even though Far From Home staggered its schedule much more than Joker, the latter's incredible word of mouth (in the Inception sense, it should be said) makes it look very possible. Personally, I'm taking the over on the $1 billion milestone.

In other news, The Addams Family clicked with a $30.3 million opening, proving that UAR can actually effectively market a movie. Gemini Man, on the other hand, looks like a big loss in the making unless it blows up in China this next weekend, where it will have to contend with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil. Overall, it was a very strong weekend for the box office; domestically, we're running a mere $5 million behind 2018's record October to date, a gap that could completely close tomorrow due to holidays this year.
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scarletspeed7
10/14/19 7:51:14 PM
#44:


I think a billion is predicated on the notion that awards recognition will need to get Joker to that billion-dollar mark.

Given the lack of awareness about Maleficent, I wonder if Joker can hold #1 again this weekend.
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MetalmindStats
10/17/19 7:22:00 PM
#45:


My domestic top 12 predictions for the upcoming weekend:

1. $37.9 million Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
2. $30.9 million Joker
3. $20.8 million Zombieland: Double Tap
4. $15.7 million The Addams Family
5. $9.8 million Gemini Man
6. $3.1 million Abominable
7. $3.0 million Downton Abbey
8. $2.0 million Judy
9. $2.0 million Hustlers
10. $1.5 million It Chapter Two
11. $1.2 million Jexi
12. $990,000 Parasite

Maleficent is on pace for a borderline disastrous debut, but it hardly matters when it comes to bragging rights, since Joker looks like it will fall harder this weekend than last.
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ninkendo
10/17/19 7:47:37 PM
#46:


A movie about a reoccurring kingdom hearts villain
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scarletspeed7
10/17/19 8:10:22 PM
#47:


I feel like Maleficent will open at 40, personally.
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MetalmindStats
10/23/19 7:24:52 PM
#48:


Last weekend was a bit disappointing domestically all around; even Zombieland, which bested my modest projection, probably won't end up breaking even.

Also, Box Office Mojo has been radically redesigned. I've only briefly browsed the new website, so I don't have a full list of what exactly is missing compared to the old site.
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scarletspeed7
10/23/19 7:27:30 PM
#49:


It's all still there. I did a go-round earlier today. They have fewer charts on the front page, sadly, but otherwise, easy to find everything.
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MetalmindStats
10/23/19 7:50:06 PM
#50:


On further browsing, no, there's definitely a fair bit of information either missing or locked behind IMDB Pro. They no longer have total international weekend grosses, lists of yearly or all-time top-grossing movies for markets other than North America, theater counts, director/actor/franchise/studio charts, or the ability to adjust for ticket price inflation on pages. Additionally, their all-time weekend records chart is laughably inaccurate in places.

With these changes, I think Box Office Mojo has stopped being the best resource for domestic box office info. International is a different story, but that's moreso because only The Numbers even tries, and they're missing info on lots of territories that BOM has info for.
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