Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 227: Cancel the Politics Topic: 250 B8ers will Die

(+) Yeah! (+)

Nrrr posted...

https://twitter.com/Ventuckyspaz/status/1142649914364575744

This was great

inb4 "why did he roll his eyes? He's so nasty"
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lol

shit like this is why i find it ridiculous that smart "libertarian" muffin is constantly bashing bernie while wearing his MAGA hat
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Does anyone ITT think Bernie is actually going to win the primary? Are you hoping the debates shift the polls or just holding out that Warren/other very progressive candidates drop out?
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Does anyone ITT think Bernie is actually going to win the primary? Are you hoping the debates shift the polls or just holding out that Warren/other very progressive candidates drop out?

Biden will choke then things get interesting.
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Does anyone ITT think Bernie is actually going to win the primary? Are you hoping the debates shift the polls or just holding out that Warren/other very progressive candidates drop out?

Do you think Biden will win?
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I think Bernie has a decent shot at winning. I wouldn't be surprised if he won or if he lost. It's really early, Biden can only go down, there are a lot of possible outcomes. I expect if it looks like Bernie can really win, the entire establishment and media will coalesce behind one candidate besides him very quickly, so it would be tough.

Biden losing doesn't correlate with Bernie winning. Warren or Harris are far more likely to siphon his supporters than Bernie.

So I'll ask again: do you really expect Bernie to win?
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The last poll I saw had Bernie as the most popular second choice for Biden voters

Nrrr posted...

The last poll I saw had Bernie as the most popular second choice for Biden voters

You should take this with a huge grain of salt, if you think Biden's numbers are inflated/soft then so are Bernie's "second choice" numbers

It's early in the race and a lot of the numbers are just people not having anything more than a vague opinion on the candidates

If I had to predict, I think Bernie will be 4th in delegates by Super Tuesday
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I agree those numbers don't mean much, but someone who just says "uh Biden" and isn't paying attention isn't necessarily an ideologue so you can't say their vote automatically goes to a centrist over Bernie. It could go anywhere. All I said was Bernie has a decent shot.

Yeah, that much is probably true

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Biden losing doesn't correlate with Bernie winning. Warren or Harris are far more likely to siphon his supporters than Bernie.

So I'll ask again: do you really expect Bernie to win?

I would say anyone sure of themselves "knowing" who will win is foolish, at this point.

I think Bernie has just as much of a shot as anybody, but there are definitely people very against him, some of them to a hypocritical extent, so we'll see.
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

If I had to predict, I think Bernie will be 4th in delegates by Super Tuesday

Who are your expected Top 3?
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Nelson_Mandela posted...

If I had to predict, I think Bernie will be 4th in delegates by Super Tuesday

Who are your expected Top 3?

Biden
Warren
Harris
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But I thought Rubio would win in 2016 so what the hell do I know
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most voters are politically ignorant I don't really know anything about the people they're voting for much less other candidates, especially when there's so many candidates and the paradox of choice hits

which means Biden voters could largely go anywhere and not really a similar candidate at all - and yeah like Para mentions a hell of a lot of it is just about recognition which would especially be the case for people who are currently Biden supporters
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I think that people have a weird assumption that centrism is something that has massive appeal when I think the reality is that most people aren't really that ideologically inclined at all and will kind of do whatever - there's a lot of "undecideds"/moderates who will swing for a progressive candidate because it just seems like the thing to do, for whatever reason, and might not be related to the fact that they're progressive

Paratroopa1 posted...

I think that people have a weird assumption that centrism is something that has mass appeal

I mean literally every president* that's been elected since FDR has been a centrist so this is not a correct statement.

*Trump-style populism doesn't really fit the left/right/center spectrum so he doesn't count
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Yeah, most people in the US have a mishmash of paradoxically mismatched political beliefs and no actual ideology to back it.

This is actually a pretty terrifying poll of the US voter.

1/3rd of people would support a pre-emptive nuclear strike on North Korea, even when told that it would kill upwards of 1 million innocent people in North Korea. Among people who support the death penalty, they found that support for the pre-emptive nuclear strike actually increased as they raised the theoretical death toll of the strike from 15k to 1.1 million.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-support-north-korea-nuclear-war-one-million-dead-1445578

just a side note, I used to live in South Korea, and I talked to someone in the military there that told me they were briefed on the scenario of their expectations of a war were it to occur. They expected that within the first hour of any fighting breaking out, roughly all of the airmen in the base in Osan were expected to be dead, as well as the majority of the population of Seoul, 25% of the population of South Korea. They also believe that North Korea would attack California.

I wonder if any of this information would change the numbers. Sadly, I would guess that the fact they would attack California might actually increase the support.

Paratroopa1 posted...

I think that people have a weird assumption that centrism is something that has massive appeal when I think the reality is that most people aren't really that ideologically inclined at all and will kind of do whatever - there's a lot of "undecideds"/moderates who will swing for a progressive candidate because it just seems like the thing to do, for whatever reason, and might not be related to the fact that they're progressive

How a "centrist" would do depends a lot on what "centrist" means. I think a candidate whose views were in the middle of the political spectrum on most issues would do fairly well in a general election, but the when the media says "centrist" they're ruling out any Democrat for being too far left regardless of their views. A Clinton/Obama/Biden-type Democrat would probably be unbeatable in a general election if they were the Republican nominee.
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Nrrr posted...

Yeah, most people in the US have a mishmash of paradoxically mismatched political beliefs and no actual ideology to back it.

This is actually a pretty terrifying poll of the US voter.

1/3rd of people would support a pre-emptive nuclear strike on North Korea, even when told that it would kill upwards of 1 million innocent people in North Korea. Among people who support the death penalty, they found that support for the pre-emptive nuclear strike actually increased as they raised the theoretical death toll of the strike from 15k to 1.1 million.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-support-north-korea-nuclear-war-one-million-dead-1445578

just a side note, I used to live in South Korea, and I talked to someone in the military there that told me they were briefed on the scenario of their expectations of a war were it to occur. They expected that within the first hour of any fighting breaking out, roughly all of the airmen in the base in Osan were expected to be dead, as well as the majority of the population of Seoul, 25% of the population of South Korea. They also believe that North Korea would attack California.

I wonder if any of this information would change the numbers. Sadly, I would guess that the fact they would attack California might actually increase the support.

Sigh, every once and a while I get reminded how bad unitary Republican rule could be. Divided government all the way then.

Trump is actually sane btw and understands how stupid a war with North Korea would be. But I really don't trust most of the Republicans on this one, from the Bushes on down.
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does he understand how stupid a war with iran would be, though?
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Xeybozn posted...

How a "centrist" would do depends a lot on what "centrist" means. I think a candidate whose views were in the middle of the political spectrum on most issues would do fairly well in a general election, but the when the media says "centrist" they're ruling out any Democrat for being too far left regardless of their views. A Clinton/Obama/Biden-type Democrat would probably be unbeatable in a general election if they were the Republican nominee.

Yeah, when I think "centrist" I think a candidate who doesn't want to raise taxes because they're "socially liberal but fiscally conservative." Also all the suburbanites that voted Trump because they were concerned about property taxes, but then voted for Democrats in 2018. People that the party is now terrified of losing.
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

does he understand how stupid a war with iran would be, though?

The difference is that Iran doesn't have nukes and doesn't have a leading world city as a hostage.

Not that it would be a good idea - but it wouldn't result in millions of deaths in hours.
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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Xeybozn posted...

How a "centrist" would do depends a lot on what "centrist" means. I think a candidate whose views were in the middle of the political spectrum on most issues would do fairly well in a general election, but the when the media says "centrist" they're ruling out any Democrat for being too far left regardless of their views. A Clinton/Obama/Biden-type Democrat would probably be unbeatable in a general election if they were the Republican nominee.

Yeah, when I think "centrist" I think a candidate who doesn't want to raise taxes because they're "socially liberal but fiscally conservative." Also all the suburbanites that voted Trump because they were concerned about property taxes, but then voted for Democrats in 2018. People that the party is now terrified of losing.

They'll be voting GOP in 2020 once they hear about the Democrats' policies...
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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Yeah, when I think "centrist" I think a candidate who doesn't want to raise taxes because they're "socially liberal but fiscally conservative."

so gary johnson?
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Also, you don't need to worry about strong, confident, negotiators like Trump getting into wars. Wars happen when negotiators miscalculate. Especially when they have a chip on their shoulder before they fear being seen as weak. Republicans don't need to worry about that because even if you are the most cowardly draft dodging coward ever, with that R next to your name your courage and patriotism are beyond question.
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But if you elect weak leaders like Jeb watch out. We would already be at war with Syria and Iran.
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Remember, Bush ran on a platform of noninterventionism and proceeded to start 2 wars. Nixon ran on being tough on Communism and made peace with China, opening up trade and jumpstarting China's ascent from subsistence farming to global power. Neville Chamberlain had a policy of appeasement, and it led to the deadliest war ever. Reagan ran on bellicosity and made peace with the USSR.
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Yeah, when I think "centrist" I think a candidate who doesn't want to raise taxes because they're "socially liberal but fiscally conservative."

so gary johnson?

Yes except like Para said I don't think most people in this camp subscribe to any particular ideology and so don't give a shit about the Libertarian party
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https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/1143305127526195200

Ugh these people are disgusting

Nrrr posted...

https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/1143305127526195200

Ugh these people are disgusting

Those people thought Hillary would win too. Fortunately their arrogance blinds them.
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https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1143208855234650114

Zero lessons learned from 2016 on covering Trump
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Nrrr posted...

https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/1143305127526195200

Ugh these people are disgusting

Even with this cut in what is presumably the most convenient location possible it's still difficult to come to the conclusion that the journalist is trying to steer us towards. This is just inflammatory bullshit until the clip is given more context.
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pyresword posted...

Nrrr posted...

https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/1143305127526195200

Ugh these people are disgusting

Even with this cut in what is presumably the most convenient location possible it's still difficult to come to the conclusion that the journalist is trying to steer us towards. This is just inflammatory bullshit until the clip is given more context.

?????

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1143426734651564033

Ruh roh
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Nrrr posted...

pyresword posted...

Nrrr posted...

https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/1143305127526195200

Ugh these people are disgusting

Even with this cut in what is presumably the most convenient location possible it's still difficult to come to the conclusion that the journalist is trying to steer us towards. This is just inflammatory bullshit until the clip is given more context.

?????

Informing people about candidate's positions on healthcare and "telling them not to worry about Medicare for All" are two different things that are indistinguishable with only the provided clip.

I'm also not even convinced the latter is necessarily malicious because it's only ready bad thing if it comes along with the implication of "we'll make sure Bernie doesn't win", or something.
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pyresword posted...

Nrrr posted...

pyresword posted...

Nrrr posted...

https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/1143305127526195200

Ugh these people are disgusting

Even with this cut in what is presumably the most convenient location possible it's still difficult to come to the conclusion that the journalist is trying to steer us towards. This is just inflammatory bullshit until the clip is given more context.

?????

Informing people about candidate's positions on healthcare and "telling them not to worry about Medicare for All" are two different things that are indistinguishable with only the provided clip.

I'm also not even convinced the latter is necessarily malicious because it's only ready bad thing if it comes along with the implication of "we'll make sure Bernie doesn't win", or something.

Are you joking?
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There doesn't have to be a conspiracy to actively take action to stop Bernie for the video to demonstrate that some people oppose Medicare for all.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Are you joking?

Uhhhh no?

I was being a bit needlessly abrasive in the original post, but I don't think the information contained in the 50 second clip posted is enough to conclude anything. I also tend to be suspicious of any video clip that cuts off just before the introduction of new information that is clearly important to fully contextualize what the speaker is really trying to say.
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https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1143592205547909120?s=21
I dont need exit strategies
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No big deal, just former Kerry and Obama official, who was the spokesperson for Obamas 400 billion in Medicare cuts by the way, perfectly saying what weve been telling you people of her ilk actually think, and you still cant respond with the respect of a discussion.

Id love more context, but what context changes her history and the meaning behind what she just said in that clip?
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I find myself defending nearly everything Cyclo posts in these topics because every response to him is so damn dickish and snarky.

If you dont want to talk about it, just dont respond.
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Also I guess PSA did a poll of Dems and actually asked some version of the question I wanted to see about impeachment:

https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/1143560399322640384?s=21

I would really like to see the general electorate who oppose impeachment asked if they would actually be more likely to support Trump/less likely to support the Dem if Congress moves forward with impeachment. I heavily suspect the answer is overwhelmingly no, and this poll is suggestive of that conclusion (though its only Dems and about primary support).
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Ive said from the start, you do impeachment proceedings to get the fucking dude under oath, where he literally cant help but lie and commit an undeniable crime.

Even if blatant perjury isnt enough for the Senate to grow a spine, the American people will see it, and while it wont convert true believers, it will make him publicly indefensible.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

I find myself defending nearly everything Cyclo posts in these topics because every response to him is so damn dickish and snarky.

If you dont want to talk about it, just dont respond.

I assure you plenty of people have gotten dickish and snarky responses in these topics that you don't jump to defend ever let alone nearly all the time, so don't pretend that's the sole reason.
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kevwaffles posted...

I assure you plenty of people have gotten dickish and snarky responses in these topics that you don't jump to defend ever let alone nearly all the time, so don't pretend that's the sole reason.

I didnt pretend anything, Im pretty open about being a Bernie stan.
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I don't know how to respond to a 50 second clip that provides the bare minimum information necessary to maybe imply the point someone is trying to make, other than saying "please provide more information".

I have only followed politics for 3-4 years, so if there is historical context I'm missing please provide it!
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