Poll of the Day > How is Trump's Approval rating still at 45%?

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St_Kevin
01/07/19 2:47:04 AM
#1:


This is amazing!
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zebatov
01/07/19 3:22:09 AM
#2:


St_Kevin posted...
This is amazing!

-------------

What's Trudumb's at?

https://m.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/12/19/trudeau-approval-rating-poll_a_23622710/?ec_carp=3186248024917617355
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RoboXgp89
01/07/19 3:39:33 AM
#3:


Old man yells at cloud.
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GRTooCool
01/07/19 3:50:35 AM
#4:


Because most of America is stupid.
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IronicFool
01/07/19 4:04:02 AM
#5:


GRTooCool posted...
Because most of America is stupid.

Are you saying his approval rating should be higher?
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Yellow
01/07/19 4:10:30 AM
#6:


IronicFool posted...
Are you saying his approval rating should be higher?

he's not
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slacker03150
01/07/19 4:25:40 AM
#7:


Because "Politics is stupid" "It's all the same on both sides" "Hillary would be worse"
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IronicFool
01/07/19 4:34:42 AM
#8:


Yellow posted...
IronicFool posted...
Are you saying his approval rating should be higher?

he's not


Trump's Approval rating...at 45%


GRTooCool posted...
most of America is stupid


https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-ab&q=is+45%25+%27most%27%3F
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Yellow
01/07/19 4:41:47 AM
#9:


Implying people actually think there's no such thing as a stupid Democrat

I mean, take into account that those 45% of people essentially lost a 50/50 on what news channel they watched, I'd wager around 80% of people have no real information backing any of their political views.
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IronicFool
01/07/19 4:54:23 AM
#10:


Yellow posted...
Implying people actually think there's no such thing as a stupid Democrat


I'm not sure we're having the same conversation. In this topic, titled "How is Trump's Approval rating still at 45%?" GRTC up there answered "Because most of America is stupid." Most of America has measured disapproval of Trump according to whatever metrics TC used. A minority of America has not (If I really wanted to be pedantic I would also point out it should be Americans, not America, but let's move on from that for now). So if most of America being stupid is why Trump's approval is still at 45% the only conclusion I can draw is that he thinks it should be higher, not lower. (This doesn't take into account neutral responses either but, well, those metrics are available and the Unsure reply tends to hover around 1%).

You say he's not saying that. I show why he is, in not so many words, and you seem to have taking this to imply people think there's no such thing as a stupid Democrat. Not sure what to make of this, particularly since none of the above has taken into account political party affiliations...like, at all.

Yellow posted...
I mean, take into account that those 45% of people essentially lost a 50/50 on what news channel they watched, I'd wager around 80% of people have no real information backing any of their political views.


Okay? If you want to get really into nuance, I suppose you could argue that many of the ~55% who disapprove are also stupid, but that doesn't exactly redeem the statement "most of America is stupid" if you think the approval rating should be even lower, since they disapprove in spite of their stupidity.
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Kyuubi4269
01/07/19 4:56:03 AM
#11:


Is less than half supposed to be good?
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Yellow
01/07/19 5:11:44 AM
#14:


IronicFool posted...
Okay? If you want to get really into nuance, I suppose you could argue that many of the ~55% who disapprove are also stupid, but that doesn't exactly redeem the statement "most of America is stupid" if you think the approval rating should be even lower, since they disapprove in spite of their stupidity.

This is the most confusing sentence I've ever read on GameFAQs.
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darkknight109
01/07/19 5:18:59 AM
#15:


Because Trump isn't - and never has been - the problem.

It's not like he came out of nowhere and took over the country by force, or hid his true intentions, or anything like that. For whatever else you can say about him, Trump was plainly transparent from his very first press event announcing his candidacy of exactly what sort of a person he was and how he would govern. He said he'd build a wall, get rid of the elites ("elites", in this context, meaning anyone with a brain and/or relevant job experience to what they're doing), be hostile to immigrants, and generally act like a disruptive asshole and lo and behold that's exactly what he's done.

Trump is where the Republican party has been slowly trending for decades, beginning with the end of the Reagan years where the party decided to lean less on conservative econopolitical principles and more on social hotbutton issues to get out the vote. He's an ugly caricature of what they've become, but not really all that inaccurate of one; the dishonesty, the know-nothingism, the identity politics, none of that is new. The Republicans have been fostering - or, at least, tolerating - the proponents of that sort of political skulduggery for a long time now and it's finally become the dominant force in the party. The only thing that really separates Trump from someone like Dick Cheney or Newt Gingrich is that Trump doesn't bother to hide his political warts or dress them up in nice language.

So yeah, it doesn't surprise me at all that Trump still enjoys the full-throated support of the nation's Republicans; thus far, he hasn't broke ranks with them in any significant way. Absent a major economic collapse, open war, or some other disaster that Trump proves himself completely incapable of adequately addressing, I don't think his approval rating will ever dip below ~35%.
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IronicFool
01/07/19 5:28:39 AM
#16:


Yellow posted...
IronicFool posted...
Okay? If you want to get really into nuance, I suppose you could argue that many of the ~55% who disapprove are also stupid, but that doesn't exactly redeem the statement "most of America is stupid" if you think the approval rating should be even lower, since they disapprove in spite of their stupidity.

This is the most confusing sentence I've ever read on GameFAQs.


Right, let's try it a different way. Ignore political literacy or knowledge of presidential policy or current events or anything that might properly inform an opinion. Let's assume, for some crazy reason, that I am specifically talking about the simple proposed explanation "Because most of America is stupid" to the question "Why is Trump's approval rate at 45%".

If you think his approval rating should be lower:
At least 5.1% of people who disprove of the president would be required to be stupid for most of America to be stupid. This begs the question, why did they disprove? What other factors are at play? While this would be a minority of the stupid people, it's still a little more than a tenth of the required amount of stupid people approving of the president to make it a majority (that is IF all stupid people approved of the president). This is not a small number. Or, to put it simply, if Trump's approval is too high because most people are stupid, why are most people not approving?

If you think his approval rating should be higher:
Most people did not approve of the president. This view is, at least, consistent with explaining the current approval rating if you think more people should approve.

Personally, I think that there are other factors at play, and saying "most people are stupid" is absurdly simplistic, regardless of whatever you think of the current approval rating. Something like darkknight's post.

So, to reiterate:

IronicFool posted...
GRTooCool posted...
Because most of America is stupid.

Are you saying his approval rating should be higher?
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Zeus
01/07/19 5:32:39 AM
#17:


I'm not sure if the topic is wondering why it's not higher or why it's not lower >_>

Right now, the economy is doing pretty good, we're somewhat winding down on wars, etc, so a large segment of the population -- the non-perpetually outraged section -- should be okay with Trump; well, if not for playing a role in the government shutdown.
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IronicFool
01/07/19 5:36:54 AM
#18:


Zeus posted...
I'm not sure if the topic is wondering why it's not higher or why it's not lower >_>


Well, if you propose that most people are stupid to explain why the president has a 45% approval rating, I think it's safe to say you don't think it should be 45%.
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Unbridled9
01/07/19 6:59:24 AM
#19:


Because most republicans love him while most democrats loathe him. Factor in that it's only ~80% of republicans who love him but ~90% of dems who loathe him and a 45% seems fairly logical.
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ParanoidObsessive
01/07/19 7:34:22 AM
#20:


People who hate him screaming about how the sky is falling every single day for the last 700+ days has basically resulted in everyone who didn't already hate him beforehand to completely tune out every single negative story about him, assuming it's either "more bullshit" or "deliberate slander".

Congratulations - the people who can't stand him the most have essentially done the most to ensure his chances of getting reelected.


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darkknight109
01/07/19 8:26:27 AM
#21:


ParanoidObsessive posted...
People who hate him screaming about how the sky is falling every single day for the last 700+ days has basically resulted in everyone who didn't already hate him beforehand to completely tune out every single negative story about him, assuming it's either "more bullshit" or "deliberate slander".

Congratulations - the people who can't stand him the most have essentially done the most to ensure his chances of getting reelected.

I mean, the US just had the highest midterms turnout in over 100 years and it resulted in the worst House losses for the Republican party since the aftermath of Nixon's resignation, so I'm gonna say you're probably wrong about this...
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argonautweakend
01/07/19 9:10:14 AM
#22:


I honestly dont know why ita so high. Its actually been a little lower which is odd because that was months ago not during a govt shutdown trump said hed take credit for over a border wall i read most people dont even want.

As for his chances in 2020 i really dont see him getting reelected. He won the first time by a razor thin margin. I actually feel like if that election was held again(not calling for this btw) he could lose just by how close it was.

Despite the OP many people in his camp have become disillusioned with him. We arent even sure if the gop itself wants him back.

Of course i was wrong in 2016 so i could be again but different circumstances. He isnt some new candidate to take a chance on any nore.
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Foreman22
01/07/19 9:22:22 AM
#23:


Its honestly actually higher. Do you think the media going to show anything positive towards him? Media wants the power to be a Kingmaker. Add to the fact that many have caught onto the Medias extreme bias and they simply tell the media what they want to hear. Exit polls prove this.
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argonautweakend
01/07/19 9:26:16 AM
#24:


The only poll that ever seems to show him in a positive light is rasmussen but they always overpoll republicans. Sure the republicans won the 2016 eldction cycle but it still overpolled when they lost the obama elections.
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SunWuKung420
01/07/19 9:31:56 AM
#25:


Because this world is filled with selfish people.
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Judgmenl
01/07/19 9:36:19 AM
#26:


I ask everyone in this thread a simple question:
Do you think the president is trying to do what is best for the country?
That is not the same thing as "Is the president doing what you want?". Many people are implying he is doing things that are going to be worse for America in the long run.
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Fam_Fam
01/07/19 9:42:19 AM
#27:


IronicFool posted...
Yellow posted...
IronicFool posted...
Are you saying his approval rating should be higher?

he's not


Trump's Approval rating...at 45%


GRTooCool posted...
most of America is stupid


https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-ab&q=is+45%25+%27most%27%3F


it's only 45% because 55% of america is stupid
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dedbus
01/07/19 9:43:04 AM
#28:


I think there was a study that asshole drivers break up congestion and increase the overall flow of traffic. I guess you all don't see it yet but the hero we need but don't deserve.
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darkknight109
01/07/19 10:52:53 AM
#29:


Foreman22 posted...
Its honestly actually higher. Do you think the media going to show anything positive towards him? Media wants the power to be a Kingmaker. Add to the fact that many have caught onto the Medias extreme bias and they simply tell the media what they want to hear. Exit polls prove this.

"The polls are wrong! These other polls say so!"

Judgmenl posted...
I ask everyone in this thread a simple question:
Do you think the president is trying to do what is best for the country?

Based on the strictest wording of your question, no.

I think for some of his stuff - like the tariffs - he's trying to do what he thinks is best for the country, but that's not the same as doing what's *actually* best for the country and most of the experts readily admit that 90+% of his ideas are bad (not even a little bit bad either - like disastrously, "Holy fuck, why would you ever say that out loud?" bad). Other stuff, like the tax cuts, he genuinely doesn't give a shit and is just doing what's best for himself (either to personally enrich himself or to maximize his popularity among his base).

Thanks to Trump, America is burning its bridges and turning inwards at one of the worst possible times both for it and the country as a whole. China, with their "One Belt, One Road" policy is fighting hard to expand their influence and carve out a hegemony, which it is partially doing by filling the void left by waning US influence, especially in Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe. Putin has grand visions of a neo-Soviet dynasty - his country lacks the resources to pull it off, but clearly he's not averse to mayhem. Hell, US and Ukranian observers have noticed suspicious Russian military movements over the last few weeks and are concerned about potential attacks or operations in the lead-up to the Ukranian elections (Putin is hoping the current pro-EU, pro-West prime minister is ousted and appears to be ratcheting up tensions to try and make him appear weak). Hell, they still haven't released the ships or sailors they detained a few weeks back. But is Trump doing anything to support a US ally in the region or stand up to Russian aggression? Of course not, he's too busy worrying about some dumb-fuck piece of concrete that won't even solve the problems he's trying to fix.

Meanwhile, the rest of the western world is rapidly realizing that the US elected a clown to be their head of state and that America can no longer be counted on as a steady, reliable ally. I mean, holy shit, look at these numbers (poll of various countries on how much confidence they have in the president of the US to "do the right thing" when it comes to world affairs) and what happened to them between 2016 and 2017

http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/6/survey/all/

America is losing its influence and that may be the most lasting damage for the country in the long run. The US has enjoyed nearly 30 years as the world's only real superpower, with all the advantages that conferred, and that era is now almost unarguably coming to an end. Admittedly, that trend predates Trump, but he has exacerbated it by treating allies like thieves or fools and dictators like celebrities.
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LinkPizza
01/07/19 12:57:52 PM
#30:


Judgmenl posted...
I ask everyone in this thread a simple question:
Do you think the president is trying to do what is best for the country?
That is not the same thing as "Is the president doing what you want?". Many people are implying he is doing things that are going to be worse for America in the long run.

I dont think so. Im not even sure if Trump thinks so. It sounds like hes trying to help himself more as a person than helping the country as a whole. Though, that can also make sense with something you said. You said others are saying he isnt doing what they want. But sometimes, those people think what they want would help the country out more than the things Trump is doing. Which is pretty much what he wants. Also, if he is doing things that will be worse for America in the long run, that is pretty bad. To mess shit up, and try to pin the blame on whoever is in after you... But still take all the credit for all the good...
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DPsx7
01/07/19 1:12:13 PM
#31:


It probably is higher because the idiotic media can make more money by posting the negative stories. He's just a guy with a job, neither a god nor a fool. The biggest reason he can't get everything done is because everyone who was so butthurt over the election is going out of their way to be difficult. The haters are dumber than a bag of foam.
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darkknight109
01/07/19 1:16:13 PM
#32:


DPsx7 posted...
It probably is higher because the idiotic media can make more money by posting the negative stories. He's just a guy with a job, neither a god nor a fool. The biggest reason he can't get everything done is because everyone who was so butthurt over the election is going out of their way to be difficult. The haters are dumber than a bag of foam.

Yeah, the Republican president with a Republican House, Republican Senate, and conservative Supreme Court was being hamstrung by the Democrats. That makes sense.

If you really want to see obstructionism, check out how McConnell ran the senate after the Democrats lost the majority during Obama's tenure.
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DPsx7
01/07/19 1:20:41 PM
#33:


darkknight109 posted...

America is losing its influence and that may be the most lasting damage for the country in the long run. The US has enjoyed nearly 30 years as the world's only real superpower, with all the advantages that conferred, and that era is now almost unarguably coming to an end. Admittedly, that trend predates Trump, but he has exacerbated it by treating allies like thieves or fools and dictators like celebrities.


Nah, there are more than just the US. I wouldn't be surprised if the big ego, the idea that we're supposed to be involved with everything, is why plenty of countries hate us. We have our own problems to solve. Let other countries have some time to themselves. We can also be respectable yet firm with other superpowers without being taken advantage of.
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DPsx7
01/07/19 1:22:51 PM
#34:


darkknight109 posted...
DPsx7 posted...
It probably is higher because the idiotic media can make more money by posting the negative stories. He's just a guy with a job, neither a god nor a fool. The biggest reason he can't get everything done is because everyone who was so butthurt over the election is going out of their way to be difficult. The haters are dumber than a bag of foam.

Yeah, the Republican president with a Republican House, Republican Senate, and conservative Supreme Court was being hamstrung by the Democrats. That makes sense.

If you really want to see obstructionism, check out how McConnell ran the senate after the Democrats lost the majority during Obama's tenure.


Don't act like everyone is playing nice. The system is set up to make sure no one person has too much power but it's also preventing many things from moving forward.
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darkknight109
01/07/19 1:26:18 PM
#35:


DPsx7 posted...
darkknight109 posted...
DPsx7 posted...
It probably is higher because the idiotic media can make more money by posting the negative stories. He's just a guy with a job, neither a god nor a fool. The biggest reason he can't get everything done is because everyone who was so butthurt over the election is going out of their way to be difficult. The haters are dumber than a bag of foam.

Yeah, the Republican president with a Republican House, Republican Senate, and conservative Supreme Court was being hamstrung by the Democrats. That makes sense.

If you really want to see obstructionism, check out how McConnell ran the senate after the Democrats lost the majority during Obama's tenure.


Don't act like everyone is playing nice. The system is set up to make sure no one person has too much power but it's also preventing many things from moving forward.

I didn't say everyone was playing nice; I said the idea he was being meaningfully obstructed when literally every branch of government was on his side is patently ridiculous.

DPsx7 posted...
I wouldn't be surprised if the big ego, the idea that we're supposed to be involved with everything, is why plenty of countries hate us.

And do you think Trump launching trade wars against allies and badmouthing their leaders (and sometimes their populace) is going to improve that?

And for whatever fuck-ups the US has committed abroad (and there have been no shortage of them), the idea of China setting up their own global alliance while the US just kind of sits around with its thumb up its ass is not an idea that should bring anyone comfort.
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AllstarSniper32
01/07/19 1:56:39 PM
#36:


Judgmenl posted...
Do you think the president is trying to do what is best for the country?

You mean, is shutting down the government to build a wall on a boarder in 2019?

I don't think he knows that ladders or shovels have been invented, let alone what's best for the country.

He's doing good at wanting to spend tax money on something idiotic.
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AltOmega
01/07/19 2:53:21 PM
#37:


People are absolutely sick and tired of the regressive left.
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DPsx7
01/07/19 3:11:12 PM
#38:


darkknight109 posted...
DPsx7 posted...
I wouldn't be surprised if the big ego, the idea that we're supposed to be involved with everything, is why plenty of countries hate us.

And do you think Trump launching trade wars against allies and badmouthing their leaders (and sometimes their populace) is going to improve that?

And for whatever fuck-ups the US has committed abroad (and there have been no shortage of them), the idea of China setting up their own global alliance while the US just kind of sits around with its thumb up its ass is not an idea that should bring anyone comfort.


If the deals weren't fair for us then yeah, make efforts to fix it. Be firm without being a bully. The alternative is to let everyone walk over you because you chose to 'be nice so people will like me'. Ya know?

Let them. I've thought for a long time that we should cut back and focus on our problems before solving everyone else's. I mean you can't completely shut out the rest of the world, isolation brings its own problems. China is a big boy, they can have some friends. We don't control everything.
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FrndNhbrHdCEman
01/07/19 3:39:44 PM
#39:


They poll old people like Zeus OP.
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Zeus
01/07/19 4:17:17 PM
#40:


IronicFool posted...
Zeus posted...
I'm not sure if the topic is wondering why it's not higher or why it's not lower >_>


Well, if you propose that most people are stupid to explain why the president has a 45% approval rating, I think it's safe to say you don't think it should be 45%.


What the fuck are you babbling about? @IronicFool

ParanoidObsessive posted...
People who hate him screaming about how the sky is falling every single day for the last 700+ days has basically resulted in everyone who didn't already hate him beforehand to completely tune out every single negative story about him, assuming it's either "more bullshit" or "deliberate slander".

Congratulations - the people who can't stand him the most have essentially done the most to ensure his chances of getting reelected.


This, pretty much.

darkknight109 posted...
ParanoidObsessive posted...
People who hate him screaming about how the sky is falling every single day for the last 700+ days has basically resulted in everyone who didn't already hate him beforehand to completely tune out every single negative story about him, assuming it's either "more bullshit" or "deliberate slander".

Congratulations - the people who can't stand him the most have essentially done the most to ensure his chances of getting reelected.

I mean, the US just had the highest midterms turnout in over 100 years and it resulted in the worst House losses for the Republican party since the aftermath of Nixon's resignation, so I'm gonna say you're probably wrong about this...


Kind of like how Republicans winning big in the house during Obama's term meant that he didn't get re-elected... oh wait...

SunWuKung420 posted...
Because this world is filled with selfish people.


Hence it not being higher?
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Zeus
01/07/19 4:18:33 PM
#41:


argonautweakend posted...
As for his chances in 2020 i really dont see him getting reelected. He won the first time by a razor thin margin. I actually feel like if that election was held again(not calling for this btw) he could lose just by how close it was.


America has a trend towards incumbency, which is a big part of why GWB and Obama enjoyed second terms. Granted, it could be a moot issue if he doesn't seek reelection.

argonautweakend posted...
Despite the OP many people in his camp have become disillusioned with him. We arent even sure if the gop itself wants him back.


The GOP members who don't want him now are the same who didn't want him in the first place.
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CyborgSage00x0
01/07/19 4:34:37 PM
#42:


It's actually around 41%, and hasn't budged from that for a while:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

It appears the floor for any President is usually mid-30's, barring some exceptions (W ended his term in the 20's for some polls). Trump is unique in that, by all rights his should be much lower, but he's also the only one to start his term polling in the 30's/40's, and has never climbed above 45. So while his floor isn't as low as it should be, he has no ceiling, either.
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IronicFool
01/07/19 5:14:31 PM
#43:


Zeus posted...
What the fuck are you babbling about?


Are you one of those people who comes into a topic, doesn't read the whole topic, and then is confused by what's going on and thinks everyone else is off the mark?
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LinkPizza
01/07/19 5:20:03 PM
#44:


IronicFool posted...
Zeus posted...
What the fuck are you babbling about?


Are you one of those people who comes into a topic, doesn't read the whole topic, and then is confused by what's going on and thinks everyone else is off the mark?

Its more likely you didnt fully read his comment. Based on the topic title and what was in the OP, Zeus was saying he didnt know whether TC thought it should be higher or lower. Then just said stuff about the economy. You seemed to go on ranting about whatever you were ranting about before to him, lumping him in with the other posters. At least, thats what it looks like...
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mooreandrew58
01/07/19 5:21:54 PM
#45:


I've always hated these things. Not once in my life have I been polled on my opinion nor have I known anyone who has. Either they always try to skew poll results or they just always ignore most rural areas idk.

Well I partially lied. I've gotten phone calls about local elections but that's it.
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IronicFool
01/07/19 5:23:11 PM
#46:


LinkPizza posted...
IronicFool posted...
Zeus posted...
What the fuck are you babbling about?


Are you one of those people who comes into a topic, doesn't read the whole topic, and then is confused by what's going on and thinks everyone else is off the mark?

Its more likely you didnt fully read his comment. Based on the topic title and what was in the OP, Zeus was saying he didnt know whether TC thought it should be higher or lower. Then just said stuff about the economy. You seemed to go on ranting about whatever you were ranting about before to him, lumping him in with the other posters. At least, thats what it looks like...

I was mostly making a joke and was half asleep at the time, so I can't deny that it could appear that way in retrospect. Still though, the context of the rest of the posts should at least make clear what I was "babbling" about (or even the first few posts).
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LinkPizza
01/07/19 5:26:52 PM
#47:


mooreandrew58 posted...
I've always hated these things. Not once in my life have I been polled on my opinion nor have I known anyone who has. Either they always try to skew poll results or they just always ignore most rural areas idk.

Well I partially lied. I've gotten phone calls about local elections but that's it.

I feel the same. I dont remember being asked about it... I dont think anyone on my city that I talk to on a regular basis was asked, either... which made me wonder who they actually asked...

IronicFool posted...
LinkPizza posted...
IronicFool posted...
Zeus posted...
What the fuck are you babbling about?


Are you one of those people who comes into a topic, doesn't read the whole topic, and then is confused by what's going on and thinks everyone else is off the mark?

Its more likely you didnt fully read his comment. Based on the topic title and what was in the OP, Zeus was saying he didnt know whether TC thought it should be higher or lower. Then just said stuff about the economy. You seemed to go on ranting about whatever you were ranting about before to him, lumping him in with the other posters. At least, thats what it looks like...

I was mostly making a joke and was half asleep at the time, so I can't deny that it could appear that way in retrospect. Still though, the context of the rest of the posts should at least make clear what I was "babbling" about (or even the first few posts).

I knew what you were babbling about. At least, early on. I kind of stopped reading all of it after a while... Mostly because it was hard to know if you were being serious or not...
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IronicFool
01/07/19 5:29:30 PM
#48:


LinkPizza posted...
I kind of stopped reading all of it after a while... Mostly because it was hard to know if you were being serious or not...


gee i wonder why that is
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LinkPizza
01/07/19 5:30:56 PM
#49:


IronicFool posted...
LinkPizza posted...
I kind of stopped reading all of it after a while... Mostly because it was hard to know if you were being serious or not...


gee i wonder why that is

I figured you werent and were jusy kinda shit-posting or whatever. Happens here often... And I sort of remember seeing that username say weird tho ha before, so... Especially since its also only a half year old... And I think you only have active posts in this topic. Maybe...
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darkknight109
01/07/19 9:39:17 PM
#50:


Zeus posted...
Kind of like how Republicans winning big in the house during Obama's term meant that he didn't get re-elected... oh wait...

Yeah, good point. I mean, if you ignore the turnout (2018 was the highest voter turnout for a midterm ever in the era of universal suffrage, whereas 2010 was one of the lowest), the difference in popularity (even at his lowest point, Obama was never as unpopular as Trump), and the difference in their electoral margins (Trump got in by the skin of his teeth, winning by just ~90k votes across three states and losing the popular vote in the process), it almost looks like the two situations are similar, even though they aren't.

I notice you still haven't responded in that other topic by the way, so I'll re-ask my question here: did you think Trump was being racist when he called immigrant gang members "not people" and "animals"? I mean, a lot of the Democrats thought so and you did say that "animal" and calling people less than human was a racial slur, so I'm just wondering if you agree with them that Trump was really racist.
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OhhhJa
01/07/19 10:11:58 PM
#51:


darkknight109 posted...
Yeah, good point. I mean, if you ignore the turnout (2018 was the highest voter turnout for a midterm ever in the era of universal suffrage, whereas 2010 was one of the lowest), the difference in popularity (even at his lowest point, Obama was never as unpopular as Trump), and the difference in their electoral margins (Trump got in by the skin of his teeth, winning by just ~90k votes across three states and losing the popular vote in the process), it almost looks like the two situations are similar, even though they aren't.

You're both fighting over what amounts to something that's relatively unpredictable with tiny sample sizes for all variables. I know you pride yourself with your statistics knowledge so you should admit that even *gasp* you could be wrong and trump could be reelected. After all, the polls last time suggested he had virtually no chance and we saw how that worked out. I put about as much stock in presidential approval ratings as I do those polls. Also, in reference to him winning by the skin of his teeth, Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 to al gore and still got elected again in 2004
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slacker03150
01/08/19 2:50:37 AM
#53:


OhhhJa posted...
darkknight109 posted...
Yeah, good point. I mean, if you ignore the turnout (2018 was the highest voter turnout for a midterm ever in the era of universal suffrage, whereas 2010 was one of the lowest), the difference in popularity (even at his lowest point, Obama was never as unpopular as Trump), and the difference in their electoral margins (Trump got in by the skin of his teeth, winning by just ~90k votes across three states and losing the popular vote in the process), it almost looks like the two situations are similar, even though they aren't.

You're both fighting over what amounts to something that's relatively unpredictable with tiny sample sizes for all variables. I know you pride yourself with your statistics knowledge so you should admit that even *gasp* you could be wrong and trump could be reelected. After all, the polls last time suggested he had virtually no chance and we saw how that worked out. I put about as much stock in presidential approval ratings as I do those polls. Also, in reference to him winning by the skin of his teeth, Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 to al gore and still got elected again in 2004


The polls last time suggested he had a good chance. Most of the media reading the polls were the ones who thought Hilary being favored within the margin of error meant she was going to win easily. I remember a few left wing commenters screaming from the roof tops that Hillary was a weak candidate and Trump had a real shot. And even then she won the popular vote by almost 3 million. Right around what the polls were predicting. It just split in a way that favoured Trump.

As for Bush. He lost the popular vote by about half a million. And his approval ratings were still high from his response to 9/11.
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