Board 8 > ~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis!! Part 3*~

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LusterSoldier
01/11/19 4:23:53 AM
202
Street Fighter 5 could be an explanation for Ryu's strength dropping. Our last Street Fighter character poll happened 4 days before the release of Street Fighter 5, so we'll need to wait for another character poll to verify this theory.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!
Ulti_PCA
01/11/19 5:14:47 AM
203
MetalmindStats posted...
LusterSoldier posted...
I don't think this can be blamed on Ryu getting weaker as I compared Ryu to Ken in all of the polls and Ryu has always gotten between 66% and 71% on Ken.

You realize you're saying that Ryu staying more-or-less steady on a fellow Street Fighter character is proof that he didn't get weaker overall, right?

Luster won the oracle so he knows what he's talking about.
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LinkMarioSamus
01/11/19 5:27:44 AM
204
With the Gordon thing, I must have gotten caught up in the whole thing about Kirby/Pokmon doing better in multi-ways compared to 1v1s.

Though I'm not entirely sure if that last one is true for Pokmon, considering Charizard and Missingno had their best contest in a 1v1, and Pikachu didn't do half-bad that year either. Though perhaps Ulti has already taken that into account.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
handsomeboy2012
01/11/19 7:55:38 AM
205
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
These two polls explain Chun-Li (and a lot of female characters' performances), I think.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3636-when-creating-a-custom-game-character-which-gender-do-you
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6262-when-creating-a-custom-game-character-which-gender-do-you

Using poll of the day to determine contest strength is bad, but a 15% shift is hard to ignore.

Every female character after that Tifa match got hentai rallied though.
WarThaNemesis2
01/11/19 8:06:38 AM
206
handsomeboy2012 posted...
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
These two polls explain Chun-Li (and a lot of female characters' performances), I think.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3636-when-creating-a-custom-game-character-which-gender-do-you
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6262-when-creating-a-custom-game-character-which-gender-do-you

Using poll of the day to determine contest strength is bad, but a 15% shift is hard to ignore.

Every female character after that Tifa match got hentai rallied though.


Hentai rallies don't explain Tifa beating Sephiroth, Zelda being a monster even before the rallies, Aerith > Squall, Lara looking respectable, and Samus.
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RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
snake_5036
01/11/19 1:35:23 PM
207
handsomeboy2012 posted...
Every female character after that Tifa match got hentai rallied though.

thats a meme

hentai rallies (threads that got more than 3 views and actually impacted matches) were only ever involved with tifa
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You felt your sins weighing down on your neck.
Logience
01/11/19 2:07:29 PM
208
snake_5036 posted...
handsomeboy2012 posted...
Every female character after that Tifa match got hentai rallied though.

thats a meme

hentai rallies (threads that got more than 3 views and actually impacted matches) were only ever involved with tifa

Zelda and Samus
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>unironically playing video games
SuperNiceDog
01/11/19 2:09:48 PM
209
I forgot link beat ganon with 79%.

He was the star of the contest
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Advokaiser
Ulti_PCA
01/12/19 3:12:24 AM
210
D'Isaiah T'Billings Clyde
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Ulti_PCA
01/13/19 12:18:47 AM
211
Legends Bracket Round 1: (8)Mega Man vs (7)Pikachu

(8)Mega Man - 14396 [49.89%]
(7)Pikachu - 14458 [50.11%]
Total Votes - 28854
Prediction Percentage - 19.54%

This was SUCH a good match, and it reminded me a lot of Mega Man v Zero v Charizard back in 2003. Mega Man had every reason in the world to just roll over and die in this match, but the little guy just has the clutch gene and refuses to quit in close matches, even when a lot of people on Board 8 were sitting there expecting Pikachu to just roll this dude. Pikachu stomped through the main bracket, and outside of Smash Bros Mega Man hasn't done much lately. No, MM9 through 11 doesn't count. Dude's really something.

When this match started, it didn't exactly look like we were getting some great classic. Pikachu held strong early, but then Mega Man had a 100 vote lead in 15 minutes. It looked to be one of those standard matches that looks close on percents, but is never actually close. But then Pikachu won the next update by 26, and it was on. Pikachu got this thing back under 50 very quickly, but then Mega Man started going up again and built a lead of 200. Not to be outdone, Pikachu countered again and in only a few updates it was below 100 again. We continued on the two steps forward one step back routine for Mega Man until he built his biggest lead of the match: 237 votes. Remember that number.

After some stalling and as we continued on through midnight, Pikachu slowly but surely fought his way back into things. Remember a few matches ago where I joked about Mega Man going to every house in Europe and killing a house pet, a first born son, and torching the place? Europe despises this dude, and it shows up every time Mega Man has a match. We don't usually notice because most matches with these characters aren't close, but in matches like this it really matters. Pikachu tied this poll at 3 am, and then veeeeeery slowly started building a lead. He hit 100 in time for the morning vote, where one would assume a Pokemon would take over.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/8d/8d/8a/8d8d8a90b54f883fc446f52425e22f4a.jpg

Mega Man won the morning vote, and in only a couple hours we were tied again. Did Mega Man take advantage and start climbing? Of course not, because these two guys were out there giving us the best match of this contest to this point. King Dedede and Revolver Ocelot having a match like this is great, but Mega Man and Pikachu doing it actually meant something. But despite all the back and forth, Mega Man slowly trended up all morning and well past lunch en route to a lead of 150 votes.

But you can't have classic matches if someone just dies, so once again Pikachu fought back. During the afternoon and largely thanks to the ASV (after school vote, for those playing the home game), Pikachu erased that 150 vote lead and yet again we were tied up. At 5 pm, with only two hours left in the poll, these two were dead even. It was going to come down to which fanbase wanted it more, and for once, the Pokemon fans actually bothered caring about a close match. I've been asking these people to try showing up for years. Today, they finally did it. Pikachu built up a 100 vote lead over the next 45 minutes, and though Mega Man fought like hell to get back in the match, he simply ran out of time. Pikachu was ready for that last push, went 'oh hey the guy I'm against is made of metal, maybe I should electrocute the little bastard', and that was all she wrote. Pikachu wins by 62, in our first true loss for the Noble Nine. More on that in a second.
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Ulti_PCA
01/13/19 12:18:50 AM
212
Remember when I said to remember the number 237?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S53fZTbKHG0" data-time="


A new wire to wire record! I'm a sucker for that list, and seeing such a great match set a record like that warms my heart. Props to these two for giving us one hell of a show, and props to Pikachu for finally breaking the Noble Nine.

Ah yes, the Noble Nine. Link, Cloud, Mario, Samus, Crono, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mega Man, and Sonic the Hedgehog. Nine characters so much stronger than everyone else that they could only lose to each other. Nine characters who have had entire contests warped around them so others have a fair chance of winning. Whenever something happens that proves the LOL x stats wrong, I'm the first guy to laugh. You all know this. I go the other way with the Noble Nine. Sort of. I'm the kind of guy to make excuses whenever they lose in some weird bracket idea like 4ways, 3ways, and Rivalry Rumble, simply because the whole reason those formats happened was to give other characters a chance of winning. The only losses they've had I consider truly legitimate are 1v1 24 hour losses. I don't care that Crono lost to Vincent in 2007. That was a 4way poll. I don't care that Kirby overperforms in 4way polls and beat Sonic. I don't care that Missingno got a 12 hour day match against Crono with backwards trends. I sure as hell don't care about 3way polls, because anyone with two brain cells to rub together knows why those were stupid.

That said, the mental gymnastics I saw after this match were really, really dumb. There are people claiming this "doesn't count" because Pikachu only won with the registered user bonus. There are people claiming this "doesn't count" because Mega Man won the rematch. There are people claiming this "doesn't count" because this sent Mega Man to a loser's bracket instead of actually eliminating him from the tournament. How about you people stop moving goalposts with your mental gymnastics and fuck off? Mega Man lost, fair and square. Deal with it. Mega Man losing here meant this was the first time, ever, that a Noble Nine character lost in a 1v1 24 hour match to someone from outside the group. That is a big deal and the push to cheapen this win so that Tifa or Zelda can take credit instead is an embarrassment. Pikachu is the character that broke the Noble Nine. Period. He did so in a really good match, too.
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MetalmindStats
01/13/19 12:25:01 AM
213
Ulti_PCA posted...
That said, the mental gymnastics I saw after this match were really, really dumb. There are people claiming this "doesn't count" because Pikachu only won with the registered user bonus. There are people claiming this "doesn't count" because Mega Man won the rematch. There are people claiming this "doesn't count" because this sent Mega Man to a loser's bracket instead of actually eliminating him from the tournament. How about you people stop moving goalposts with your mental gymnastics and fuck off? Mega Man lost, fair and square. Deal with it. Mega Man losing here meant this was the first time, ever, that a Noble Nine character lost in a 1v1 24 hour match to someone from outside the group. That is a big deal and the push to cheapen this win so that Tifa or Zelda can take credit instead is an embarrassment. Pikachu is the character that broke the Noble Nine. Period. He did so in a really good match, too.

It seemed like most of the people moving the goalposts after that match were doing it purely tongue-in-cheek, but I could be wrong.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!
WarThaNemesis2
01/13/19 12:27:43 AM
214
There's something appropriate about the Noble Nine getting undeniably knocked out by maybe the most hated character of the first contest.
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RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
Ulti_PCA
01/13/19 12:34:19 AM
215
Legends Bracket Round 1: (4)Cloud Strife vs (3)Alucard

(4)Cloud - 17772 [60.4%]
(3)Alucard - 11654 [39.6%]
Total Votes - 29426
Prediction Percentage - 62.94%

You can check my other writeups. I love Alucard, but he was overmatched here. This was very tight at the freeze and I hoped for a miracle, but Cloud put that to bed real quick and proved once again that FF7 just has these weird early votes that make no sense. Cloud turned a tied poll at the freeze into a 60% win, and some might look at a result like this and think Alucard doesn't belong in matches with the big boys.

Well guess again pal.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/989-north-division-semifinals-alucard-vs-cloud-strife

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1358-south-division-semifinal-alucard-vs-sephiroth

Way back in the day, Alucard got embarrassed by the FF7 bros. Fast forward 16 years and he's getting 40% on their mascot. I wouldn't honestly be that shocked if he could get 45% on Sephiroth tomorrow. It was nice seeing this match be decent instead of some 71-29 murdering, but at the end of the day, Cloud was able to survive and advance. That's the name of the game in these things.
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Anagram
01/13/19 12:42:59 AM
216
Whats the weakest character to ever win a division?
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Not changing this sig until I decide to change this sig.
Started: July 6, 2005
WarThaNemesis2
01/13/19 12:45:50 AM
217
Anagram posted...
Whats the weakest character to ever win a division?


Probably Diablo or Yuna?
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https://imgur.com/M1heX2g
RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
_SecretSquirrel
01/13/19 12:51:50 AM
218
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Anagram posted...
Whats the weakest character to ever win a division?


Probably Diablo or Yuna?

Draven
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, Advokaiser, the 2018 Guru Contest winner.
Ulti_PCA
01/13/19 12:53:50 AM
219
Legends Bracket Round 1: (5)Crono vs (4)Bowser

(5)Crono - 16150 [54.88%]
(4)Bowser - 13276 [45.12%]
Total Votes - 29426
Prediction Percentage - 41.5%

Wiki readers won't get this bit, but board readers will. Bear with me. So the prediction percentage for this match was 41.5%, which means well over half of people who made a bracket picked Crono to lose in this spot, to the winner of Division 4. This means most people had either Bowser, Charizard, or Kirby beating Crono here. I get that Crono has looked like piss for a very long time and that this match would end up looking very respectable for Bowser, but really? 41.5%? Crono did some of you dirty with his early exits and routine choke jobs over the years, huh? Either that or people just really expected Division 4's trio to be really, really good.

(Total side note: I don't care one iota about listing second chance prediction percentage while writing this, for the same reason I never bothered listing battle challenge or win streak type stuff. I try to avoid side show stuff in the PCA and only stick to the first bracket everyone submits.)

And boy, does Crono have a lot of choke jobs that gave people pause for this year. Mario 2002 and Mario 2003 are the famous examples, but this guy almost lost to Mega Man in 2005 before losing the Mario rematch in the final that year. Mario got his revenge. Hard. Then in 2006 he goes and chokes away a huge lead to Sonic instead of losing to Snake or Samus like he was supposed to. 4ways? Forget it. This guy was the Noble Nine's first loss back in 2007, granted it was a LOL 4way. He got revenge in 2008, but so what? He went 5 years without winning after that, including his ridiculous Missingno choke job, and the 2013 win barely counts. It was a 3way.

The point here is until this match, Crono hadn't won a 1v1 match, 12 hours or otherwise, for 12 full years. Did you guys know his last 1v1 win before this was against Auron? Random bit of trivia for you. The counter to all this is before Melee and Undertale started rallying their balls off in 2015, Chrono Trigger was absolutely going to win that contest. So no one really knew what to expect from Crono here.

Just for fun.

Bowser (2010c) VS Crono (2010c)

Bowser has a strength of 37.09.
Crono has a strength of 41.69.

Crono wins with 55.52% of the vote!

Well then. Bowser scared everyone at the freeze and made the first five minutes interesting, but Crono settled in after that and did almost exactly what he was supposed to do. Which didn't bode well for people hoping for big upsets from this guy, but at least he got the monkey off his back en route to going out and winning an actual match finally. It's been way too long.
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Nanis23
01/13/19 12:59:28 AM
220
I had Bowser>Crono in my main and second chance and I don't regret it
It will happen someday
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wololo
_SecretSquirrel
01/13/19 1:26:07 AM
221
A little bit of added trivia. Crono vs. Bowser I in second chance scored an even 50% prediction percentage making it a true conflip since it was essentially a round 1 match in that format.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, Advokaiser, the 2018 Guru Contest winner.
LusterSoldier
01/13/19 2:22:04 AM
222
Ulti_PCA posted...
This was SUCH a good match, and it reminded me a lot of Mega Man v Zero v Charizard back in 2003.


This was a 2013 match, not 2003.

Ulti_PCA posted...
But you can't have classic matches if someone just dies, so once again Pikachu fought back. During the afternoon and largely thanks to the ASV (after school vote, for those playing the home game), Pikachu erased that 150 vote lead and yet again we were tied up. At 5 pm, with only two hours left in the poll, these two were dead even. It was going to come down to which fanbase wanted it more, and for once, the Pokemon fans actually bothered caring about a close match. I've been asking these people to try showing up for years. Today, they finally did it. Pikachu built up a 100 vote lead over the next 45 minutes, and though Mega Man fought like hell to get back in the match, he simply ran out of time. Pikachu was ready for that last push, went 'oh hey the guy I'm against is made of metal, maybe I should electrocute the little bastard', and that was all she wrote. Pikachu wins by 62, in our first true loss for the Noble Nine. More on that in a second.


Pikachu did win the ASV pretty easily, but that was not a legitimate trend for Pikachu. That ASV completely flies in the face of the trends we had been seeing in this contest up to this point, with Nintendo characters (and Pokemon too) having poor day vote throughout the contest before this match. We later found out that Pikachu was getting a rally from outside sources, which explained that ASV trend.

Ulti_PCA posted...
Remember when I said to remember the number 237?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S53fZTbKHG0" data-time="


A new wire to wire record! I'm a sucker for that list, and seeing such a great match set a record like that warms my heart. Props to these two for giving us one hell of a show, and props to Pikachu for finally breaking the Noble Nine.


Although it was a new record, it's made less important by the fact that our vote totals are so terrible that you don't see characters coming back from those 1000+ leads anymore outside of a super rally. If I wanted to, I could go through the list of closest wire to wire matches and properly adjust for the vote total differences over the years by pegging all of the matches at 100000 votes. Then I can determine what the max lead would have been assuming the match finished at 100000 votes and use that to compare matches from completely different eras.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!
UltimaterializerX
01/13/19 2:22:30 AM
223
_SecretSquirrel posted...
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Anagram posted...
Whats the weakest character to ever win a division?


Probably Diablo or Yuna?

Draven

This.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n
Logience
01/13/19 10:59:19 AM
224
Just as an advance notice, Ulti, does the vote totals pretty much being universally ~10-20,000, even after Active Citizenship, factor into how you'll judge this contest later compared to the rest?
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>unironically playing video games
UltimaterializerX
01/13/19 12:17:58 PM
225
Yep.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n
Ulti_PCA
01/13/19 11:50:22 PM
226
Legends Bracket Round 1: (3)Solid Snake vs (4)Zelda

(1)Solid Snake - 14350 [49.68%]
(4)Zelda - 14535 [50.32%]
Total Votes - 28885
Prediction Percentage - 11.06%

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/365/228/5f6.jpg

Blizzard got the full brunt of my wrath, but Konami isn't out of the woods here. What those idiots have done to gaming is completely unforgivable, and it wasn't just one dumb decision. Konami literally and intentionally murdered Suikoden, murdered Silent Hill, murdered Castlevania, murdered the Yugioh card game, murdered arcades, and ruthlessly murdered Metal Gear Solid. And for who? For what?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pachinko

For the unaware, remember Plinko from The Price is Right? Imagine that as a slot machine and you have pachinko machines. Konami decided to kill off all of their gaming franchises to focus on licensed slot machines, largely because Japanese people apparently have a massive gambling problem and spend all of the time and money on the damn things. Which means nothing to you, outside of not getting to play good games from that shitty-ass company anymore. That's the main difference between Konami and Blizzard, and why I'm not writing a 9500 takedown of the former. Blizzard is trash because their games all suck. Konami is trash because their games are almost always good, so them leaving the gaming business for dipshit slot machines was garbage. It's unforgivable, and Solid Snake clearly has the sins of Konami crawling on his back. He has to eat shit twice, because of all the franchises listed, Metal Gear Solid was the only one murdered three different times. One when Hideo Kojima was fired. Once when Metal Gear Solid went full pachinko.

And once when this bullshit happened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rznqHawp4Oc" data-time="


All that paired with the Zelda boost and Snake's Nintendo support always abandoning him against Nintendo characters made for some very, very bad news for Solid Snake. Had Tails never happened, this would be my favorite call of the contest. I just knew this was coming. Board 8 loves Solid Snake and has developed a habit of anti-voting Zelda characters. You guys tried your best for 15 minutes to save Snake, but it was not to be. After those 15 minutes were up, Zelda slowly and methodically marched her way up to a lead of 350 around midnight. Well, 342 to be exact. Snake fought back overnight, and tied things up as the morning vote showed up. We all kind of assumed Zelda would bury the guy in the morning and that would be that.

But miraculously, almost as if Snake knew this was his last shot, Snake started mashing that damn triangle button like he was getting cooked alive in a microwave hallway. This match was pretty much tied all morning, and Snake battled his ass off to try building a lead. But any time he got anything going, Zelda just bitch slapped him. When lunch time hit, Snake just ran out of gas and finally got buried for good. The match stayed between 100 and 200 for the last seven hours of the poll, but I remember watching it and never once feeling like Snake had a chance of winning. 342 puts this in the top 10 of the wire to wire list, but if you look at it this was the one match on there where you never really felt like the losing character had a prayer of winning. There was just too much in Zelda's favor combined with way too much going against Snake here. Snake has had a lot of close non-Noble Nine calls over the years, most of which coming with people blaming the sprite round, but at the end of the day he simply had to kneel at the altar of the Zelda series like everyone else.
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Ulti_PCA
01/13/19 11:50:26 PM
227
If I wasn't such a big Zelda fan, I'd be sad about this. But I love the series, so this was great to watch. Zelda deserves all the run she got this year, too. It's about time. Right after Pikachu broke the Noble Nine, Zelda dug its grave. Not long after this match, Zelda and Tifa would combine to bury them for good. The Noble Nine is officially dead. There is no coming back from what happened to them in this contest.

The saddest thing of all is something I actually saw ExTha post on Facebook, so shout out to @ExThaNemesis here. Remember Smash Ultimate hype and how great that game would end up being? I do. This video is a huge part of it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q05VKcXoT6A" data-time="


(nice job to all the idiots who thought it would be a port, by the way)

The best part of that video was Solid Snake -- "everyone is here" -- but then it dawned on me.

Nintendo is treating Solid Snake better than Konami ever has. Even worse, Smash Bros Ultimate might be the last game Solid Snake appears in.

Bolded for emphasis because let that sink in. That is a really, really big deal. It's also the reason Snake lost. He should have cashed in when he was actually close to Link's level a few years ago, because he is never again coming close to winning a contest. It's unbelievably, incomprehensibly sad.
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snake_5036
01/13/19 11:55:56 PM
228
Ulti_PCA posted...
Nintendo is treating Solid Snake better than Konami ever has. Even worse, Smash Bros Ultimate might be the last game Solid Snake appears in.

Ulti_PCA posted...
He should have cashed in when he was actually close to Link's level a few years ago, because he is never again coming close to winning a contest.

12zQU5hwbRgmMo
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You felt your sins weighing down on your neck.
Ulti_PCA
01/14/19 12:04:53 AM
229
Legends Bracket Round 1: (6)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (3)Auron

(6)Sonic - 15688 [54.32%]
(3)Auron - 13194 [45.68%]
Total Votes - 28882
Prediction Percentage - 43.07%

Heeeey, remember 2008? Back when Auron beat Sonic in round 2 of the LOL 4ways and then only turned around and beat him in the divisional final because Sephiroth showed up?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3290-division-8-round-2-sonic-sandbag-auron-sub-zero

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3299-division-8-final-auron-sonic-sephiroth-kratos

I still have no clue how Leon4 called that one, but that's why I write stuff after contests end and he writes stuff before they start when it actually matters :D

Seeing Sonic and Auron link up again 1 on 1 with no excuses a decade later was pretty neat, even if it was predictable. Then again over half of people thought Division 6's winner would win this match, which blows my mind. Division 6 was destined to have one of the weakest division winners ever.

This was never going to be a match that was in any doubt whatsoever, and on top of that it was very boring. The percentages stayed at 54-46 for 24 straight hours. That said, 46% on Sonic is no joke and it takes us back to the old days when a bunch of people kept calling for Sonic to lose early every year because of how he would have these random bad performances. Which makes sense. This is the dude that let Zero almost break 48% on him, let Aeris get 47% on him, let Ryu get 45%, let Tifa almost get 44%, choked against Mega Man, and almost let Vincent get 48% on him all before 2006. Add in some weird 4way performances and him not looking so hot since, and here we are. Getting into Smash clearly saved this dude's career, because it was going down fast.

All that said, the other three Sonic characters (Knuckles, Tails, and even Shadow) all looked decent this year. Sonic, uh.... didn't. And that's putting it very nicely. I have no idea why. I've always loved the guy but he just cannot catch a break. 54% on Auron is just not very impressive, and he followed it up with some bad polls.
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Ulti_PCA
01/14/19 12:05:43 AM
230
snake_5036 posted...
Ulti_PCA posted...
Nintendo is treating Solid Snake better than Konami ever has. Even worse, Smash Bros Ultimate might be the last game Solid Snake appears in.

Ulti_PCA posted...
He should have cashed in when he was actually close to Link's level a few years ago, because he is never again coming close to winning a contest.

12zQU5hwbRgmMo

I love Samus to death, but Snake not cashing in that year was always going to be bad, bad news.
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MetalmindStats
01/14/19 12:06:35 AM
231
You could probably give a dozen reasons why Snake lost, out of which I'm surprised you didn't even mention the hentai rallies.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!
Ulti_PCA
01/14/19 12:10:37 AM
232
MetalmindStats posted...
You could probably give a dozen reasons why Snake lost, out of which I'm surprised you didn't even mention the hentai rallies.

Rallying happens in every close match, it's kind of a given. Giving them credit for any close win sort of goes against my spirit of treating this like an actual sporting event though <_<
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Ulti_PCA
01/14/19 12:24:11 AM
233
Legends Bracket Round 1: (2)Samus Aran vs (3)Tifa Lockheart

(2)Samus - 17343 [58.93%]
(3)Tifa - 12085 [41.07%]
Total Votes - 29428
Prediction Percentage - 55.23%

This was just a brutal match to look at, especially given this happened back in the day: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2555-tournament-quarterfinal-samus-aran-vs-tifa-lockhart

No, those vote totals are not a typo. Samus once had a match with Tifa where she had a 900 vote lead disappear in under 4 hours, and she needed the Nintendo morning vote to bail her out. Even funnier is Samus built up a 1700 vote lead in that match, but only won by 1400. I know people reading this in 2018 might not know this, but our contests used to have things like "vote totals", "trends", and "outside interest". Square was a real terror with the night vote. Nintendo's power hour and morning votes were just unreal, and you had to be there to get how insane they were sometimes.

Fast forward 12 years. In a match that barely broke 29,000 votes, Samus beat Tifa with a bigger margin than a match that got 144,000 votes. If you take the 2018 percentages and apply them to 2006 vote totals, just for fun, you get something like this:

Samus - 84859
Tifa - 59141
Total Votes - 144000

That's almost a 26,000 vote victory. I know people are slurping Tifa for her run in this contest, but she got her ass whipped all over the place the second a truly elite character showed up. This match happened twice, too, with the exact same result both times. This was no accident. I'm sorry, but Sephiroth is not elite anymore, Mewtwo proved himself to be a fraud, and Luigi/Mega Man X just got unlucky. It happens. Tifa is clearly a step behind Samus, and the reason I bring up 2006 is because that match is far more interesting to talk about than whatever you guys call this thing. 59-41 this late in a contest without SFF is an epic annihilation. Samus was on some serious steroids this year.

I'll get more into why Square is trash later, don't worry.
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Ulti_PCA
01/14/19 12:46:06 AM
234
Legends Bracket Round 1: (7)Mario vs (1)Sephiroth

(7)Mario - 17437 [59.25%]
(1)Sephiroth - 11993 [40.75%]
Total Votes - 29430
Prediction Percentage - 53.93%

One match after Tifa went out there and got annihilated by Samus, Sephiroth went out there and showed he was not to be outdone in the "Final Fantasy 7 is a choking dog" department. Tifa losing the way she did was eye-opening and was a measure of revenge for Samus for that 2006 match, but it was nothing compared to the revenge Mario was after in this one. For years, we called Sephiroth Mario's kryptonite. For good reason.

Mario ripped through the bracket in 2002, including close wins against Cloud and Crono, before losing in the final. In 2003 it looked like he hadn't missed a beat, until, well....

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1363-south-division-final-mario-vs-sephiroth

He didn't just lose to Sephiroth. He got thoroughly and absolutely embarrassed.

Okay, sure, whatever, Mario had an off day. Two years later, Clinkeroth were removed from the main bracket. In their place, Mario went on some anabolic steroids, some HGH, some TRT, and some EPO. The guy was on more juice than Brock Lesnar or Jon Jones before USADA showed up to ruin the UFC heavyweight division. He was on more juice than John Cena, Ultimate Warrior, The Rock, or Hulk Hogan, who are dudes that clearly don't do the correct 4 month cycles. Look at them. I know it sounds ridiculous to compare Mario to real life supermen, but he really looked that insane in 2005. He won the main bracket with hilarious ease. Tournament of Champion time. A rematch with Sephiroth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=676A6VymGCk" data-time="


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2130-tournament-of-champions-semifinal-sephiroth-vs-mario

Mario getting 44% instead of 38% was great and all, but that was still an embarrassing loss given how good he looked. Sephiroth gave no fucks.

Oh, you thought it was just 1 on 1 where Sephiroth embarrassed the dude? Here's Sephiroth beating Mario in a LOL 4way so badly that Mario still doesn't win if he takes all of Fox's votes.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2913-division-3-final-sephiroth-fox-mario-big-boss

Here's Sephiroth beating Mario so badly in a 4way that if you take all of Vincent's votes and give them to Mario, Mario only wins by 900 votes. But frankly, if that was a 3way poll Seph would naturally go up in strength and beat Mario anyway.

Oh, you thought the pain stopped there? Here's the Battle Royale from 2006.

Day 1: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2562-battle-royale-day-1
Day 2: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2563-battle-royale-day-2

We can stop on day 2, because that's when Mario got eliminated.

Needless to say, when this match was slated for the legends bracket in 2018, all those old wounds reopened for Mario fans. It's like really, the guy couldn't draw anyone else?

Well Mario ended those fears in literally two seconds, and then took 15 years of pent up frustration with this Sephiroth guy ending a bunch of his runs and just beat the absolute ever-loving shit out of him with it. This was a good old fashioned ass whuppin, and for Mario fans it was a joy to watch. Mario finally got his revenge. This was clearly Mario's Super Bowl, too, because he took his eye off the ball for the rest of this contest. I doubt he even cares, either, because he finally beat the one guy he could never beat.

(Link doesn't count.)
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WarThaNemesis2
01/14/19 6:07:13 AM
235
Even though I was certain Mario was stronger than Sephiroth pre-contest, and Sephiroth's best going in was maybe within spitting distance of old Sephiroth (and his worst was laughable), the simple fact that it was Sephiroth made me really worried he was going to pull out a win.

Although what you didn't mention (unless I missed it, very possible given I'm an idiot) was that this match and Tifa/Samus happened on the exact same day, making this as formal of a changing of the guard as possible.
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https://imgur.com/M1heX2g
RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
Anagram
01/14/19 10:58:05 AM
236
It never even occurred to me that Sephiroth could win that match with Mario. I gave it no more than half a second of thought. I'm surprised anyone was worried at all.
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Not changing this sig until I decide to change this sig.
Started: July 6, 2005
Safer_777
01/14/19 11:20:27 AM
237
As a huge Sephiroth fan I am still baffled that he was so strong back then. Beating everyone except Cloud and Link? I understand Cloud. But Sephiroth? He is a bad guy. And yeah he is the most famous FF villain but still.
The dude was a monster.
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So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing?
igordebraga
01/14/19 5:37:45 PM
238
Ulti_PCA posted...
snake_5036 posted...
Ulti_PCA posted...
Nintendo is treating Solid Snake better than Konami ever has. Even worse, Smash Bros Ultimate might be the last game Solid Snake appears in.

Ulti_PCA posted...
He should have cashed in when he was actually close to Link's level a few years ago, because he is never again coming close to winning a contest.

12zQU5hwbRgmMo

I love Samus to death, but Snake not cashing in that year was always going to be bad, bad news.


DOTA, have some respect because I have friends who played it. LoL, never played but will always be against it because their fans include those jackasses who performed a hostile takeover out of spite to shove their joke down our throats. It was Snake's year, and Konami's incompetence* ensured his popularity will never be the same. At least Draven got obliterated this year, and hope he never returns.

*-Maybe they can have some sense beaten into them if Redmond comes in with cash? https://comicbook.com/gaming/2018/05/02/what-would-happen-microsoft-acquired-konami-castlevania-xbox/#4

Safer_777 posted...
As a huge Sephiroth fan I am still baffled that he was so strong back then. Beating everyone except Cloud and Link? I understand Cloud. But Sephiroth? He is a bad guy. And yeah he is the most famous FF villain but still.
The dude was a monster.


FFVII basically built GameFAQs. It was thus the site's favorite game for a while, winning both the first Best Game Ever and the tenth anniversary list one year later -https://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Top_Ten_Games_List_2005. Thus FFVII's villain being as popular as the hero makes sense, specially when he looks cool and appeals to those who like dark and manly characters.
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ALL HAIL! King of the losers!
Ulti_PCA
01/14/19 9:08:50 PM
239
Losers Bracket Round 1: (4)Ganondorf vs (8)Mega Man

(4)Ganondorf - 10087 [39.97%]
(8)Mega Man - 15151 [60.03%]
Total Votes - 25238
Prediction Percentage - 21.52%

SPRITE ROOOOOOOOOOOOUND!!!!!!! :D

The losers bracket was quite the interesting beast, but not on this day. For those skipping around in the wiki, the basic idea was if you lose in the legends bracket, you were put in the losers bracket. Lose here, and you're out for good. Win the loser's bracket and you get another shot at Link-- errrrrrr, the legend bracket winner. But if you take a middling near elite like Ganondorf (I know that's an oxymoron, but still!) and put him against a legit Noble Niner that got upset, you get blowout city. Mega Man was never going to be challenged here, but he did a little more than go out there and just win a match. He put an absolute ass whuppin on Ganon right from the jump en route to a 60-40 beatdown. Ganon doesn't lose like that too often without SFF getting involved, so this was quite the sight to see.

This match was so bad for Ganon that a bunch of crybabies to this day (as in, to the time of this writing) are still blaming the sprite round for his performance, because his number here goes against their holy doctrine of extrapolated statistics. These people might as well be Puritans at this point, because they lose their damn minds the second any of the holy LOL x stats are challenged and tons of micro adjustments must be made at all times to preserve their stature. I have legitimately seen religious fundamentalists use less rancor in real life than some of these statheads whenever a percentage is way off in a GameFAQs contest.

I said my piece about this during the mid contest analysis, so we won't go back and fully relive how embarrassing these people are. There are a few new points to make that I was saving for this match.

One. We have had a sprite round in almost every contest since 2002. I and many others like them, especially now that we get to make pictures for it. Trying to ruin our fun because your oracle percentage is wrong makes you a punk-ass bitch. Sprite rounds have been a part of contests for 16 years. Deal with it. The oracle consensus was Mega Man with 53.65%. If you want to know why people are crying like they're having male PMS, start there.

Two. Ganon either looked off or underperformed in almost every single match for this entire contest. If you think a "normal" picture would have turned this match from 60-40 back to Mega Man only winning with 54% like the oracle people said he was "supposed" to, you are an idiot. In fact, that belief is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
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Ulti_PCA
01/14/19 9:08:54 PM
240
Three and lastly, this is what non-sprite Ganondorf looks like: https://i.redd.it/lvw31bs6qv311.png

This is what Ganon's true form looks like: https://www.smashbros.com/assets_v2/img/fighter/ganondorf/ss_6.jpg

This is where Ganon probably looked his coolest in 3D in any Zelda game: https://pm1.narvii.com/6493/ddda83659268138cf18dba1a902e0dc11cda630d_hq.jpg

This is what Ganon looks like during his best boss fight in the entire series: http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/zelda/images/a/a2/Ganondorf_Wind_Waker.png/revision/latest?cb=20081013231527

This is where Ganon looks his coolest, ever, in any game: https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/zelda/images/e/e9/Ganondorf_%28Hyrule_Warriors%29.png/revision/latest?cb=20140806004719

The dude is just ugly as shit, and a sprite makes zero difference whatsoever. Mega Man is a damn legend, who can whip Ganondorf's ass 60-40 in any contest. Do you guys not remember some of the epic blowouts Mega Man has pulled off over the years? Complaining about the sprite round, or thinking Ganon's sprite meant iota of difference is just objectively, certifiably dumb.
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KanzarisKelshen
01/14/19 9:29:26 PM
241
hot take: the Polygon Round from 2005 was better than every single sprite round ever, fight me
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.
Anagram
01/14/19 9:39:05 PM
242
Why is Ganondorf so much weaker than Zelda?
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Not changing this sig until I decide to change this sig.
Started: July 6, 2005
Hbthebattle
01/14/19 9:53:48 PM
243
He wasnt in BOTW. Not really, anyway.
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Patience.
Logience
01/14/19 10:07:36 PM
244
Ulti_PCA posted...
These people might as well be Puritans at this point, because they lose their damn minds the second any of the holy LOL x stats are challenged and tons of micro adjustments must be made at all times to preserve their stature. I have legitimately seen religious fundamentalists use less rancor in real life than some of these statheads whenever a percentage is way off in a GameFAQs contest.

Puritans aren't fundies, Ulti. Don't mix up one Protestant sect with another just because you're lucky enough to be raised Catholic.
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>unironically playing video games
_SecretSquirrel
01/14/19 10:23:12 PM
245
KanzarisKelshen posted...
hot take: the Polygon Round from 2005 was better than every single sprite round ever, fight me

Vincent getting the same picture in the polygon and sprite rounds was amusing.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, Advokaiser, the 2018 Guru Contest winner.
snake_5036
01/14/19 10:24:09 PM
246
Hbthebattle posted...
He wasnt in BOTW. Not really, anyway.

And a lot of people were disappointed with his battle and first phase design, too. The DBs and champion powers turn the fight into a joke, his second phase is impossible to lose to without doing so purposefully, and a lot of people have issues with the design of his first form being a conglomeration of many things and looking too similar to the previous Blight bosses.

His character in the game is "I hate you all so much that my hatred has a form now." Annnnnd.... That's all there is to it. Basically the opposite treatment of what Zelda got to make her boost into the stratosphere.
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You felt your sins weighing down on your neck.
Ulti_PCA
01/14/19 10:31:05 PM
247
Logience posted...
lucky enough to be raised Catholic.

Being raised Catholic blew.
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igordebraga
01/14/19 10:39:37 PM
248
Ganon has three possible sprites, Zelda I, A Link to the Past, and this one that deserves to be used someday!

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/villains/images/9/9f/OoSA_Ganon_sprite.png/revision/latest?cb=20131206130347
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ALL HAIL! King of the losers!
Ulti_PCA
01/14/19 10:41:46 PM
249
Losers Bracket Round 1: (3)Alucard vs (4)Bowser

(3)Alucard - 12307 [48.76%]
(4)Bowser - 12932 [51.24%]
Total Votes - 25239
Prediction Percentage - 4.5%

I know that Bowser ended up winning this match relatively easily given how close the final percentages were, and I know Alucard went 0-2 in the legends dealie after winning his division, but I give zero fucks. For Alucard to go out there and give Bowser a real match when the latter was beefed up for this contest was awesome to watch. This wasn't some fluke. Alucard was in this thing for a good two hours before finally getting put away, and even after the match was clearly over he went out in a highly respectable way.

Bowser came out slow and only built up a lead of 100 over the first 30 minutes. Alucard then started actually fighting back, but a 50 vote update by Bowser pretty much sealed it. They stalled for a little while after that, but once Bowser got this past 200 he kind of took off. Alucard made one final push once Bowser got it past 400, but it was not to be. Bowser would end up winning by 625, in a sprite round match when both characters had their most iconic images. Bowser may have won this match, but no one was really talking about him. This was all about Alucard's Plan, and how good The Plan looked for this entire contest.

Remember my mid-contest analysis where I lamented the main bracket not getting finished? We ended up getting two guaranteed main bracket matches had it kept going. One was this match, and the other was Tifa vs Sephiroth later on. There were a lot of MANLY DUELS in this contest, but few were better than Alucard and Bowser in a match with high stakes. Not that Geralt and Simon Belmont can actually be topped on the True Manliness Scale, but hey!

How good was this match even though it wasn't really close? It actually pops up in the top 25 on this list: https://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Closest_wire_to_wire_matches
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Ulti_PCA
01/14/19 10:43:04 PM
250
igordebraga posted...
Ganon has three possible sprites, Zelda I, A Link to the Past, and this one that deserves to be used someday!

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/villains/images/9/9f/OoSA_Ganon_sprite.png/revision/latest?cb=20131206130347

https://zelda-world.com/images/games/links_awakening/boss_guide/shadow4.png

Link's Awakening SON.
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JonThePenguin
01/14/19 11:13:18 PM
251
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