Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1323

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LeonhartFour
12/18/18 3:23:13 PM
#203:


Sure, he's the biggest leech in the contest, but the Ganondorf design is the better design.
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KamikazePotato
12/18/18 3:24:33 PM
#204:


Pre-Bacondorf
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2903-division-5-round-2-luigi-mudkip-ganondorf-vergil

Post-Bacondorf
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2915-division-5-final-ganondorf-luigi-master-chief-yuna

Mega Man
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3804-mushroom-division-round-2-mega-man-vs-zack-fair

Mega Man with a sprite round advantage
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3831-mushroom-division-round-3-mega-man-vs-ryu-hayabusa

There's a reason stats get adjusted.

Also there was a guy who came to Board 8 and literally asked if he was supposed to be voting for Ganondorf or Ganon, so.
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ZeldaTPLink
12/18/18 3:32:10 PM
#205:


Nanis23 posted...
ZeldaTPLink posted...
That is probably the hardest game of the main 6 to find nowadays.

It got a 3DS port, it's on the eshop


Oh didn't know, I had to buy a cartridge two years ago when I played it.
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charmander6000
12/18/18 3:32:27 PM
#206:


LeonhartFour posted...
Well yeah, but Ganondorf isn't popular because of Ganon, just like Snake isn't popular because of Metal Gear 1 or 2.


To be fair, no one played/cared about the original Metal Gear games

Ganon is more like Zero Suit Samus
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LeonhartFour
12/18/18 3:33:21 PM
#207:


Except Zero Suit Samus doesn't even hurt Samus anymore because it's firmly become established as its own thing because of Smash.
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Not_Wylvane
12/18/18 3:45:28 PM
#208:


Choose the sexiest pictures.
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_SecretSquirrel
12/18/18 3:50:05 PM
#209:


BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
swirIdude posted...
Bold of you to say that just after he was announced for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. Do you try to be this wrong or is that just your nature?

I wasn't aware of the announcement, because: A) who cares about a complete rehash of Smash 4 and B) who cares about Persona?

I can't believe that anyone who just watched the last few months unfold could possibly to the conclusion that the public is apathetic about Smash Ultimate, when things happened like King K. Rool threatened to upset Commander Shepherd, or King Dedede almost upset Revolver Ocelot.

That bubble you live in must be really comfortable as hell.
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Lopen
12/18/18 4:04:19 PM
#210:


There are other factors to consider in Ganondorf vs Luigi r2/r3 than just Bacondorf in that contest. The size of the vote to draw matters a lot. Ganondorf is going to crumble harder the tougher his competition gets because of the nature of his leechy fanbase. I'd blame GAME FUEL Master Chief shrinking their combined portion of the vote from 60 to 45 more than Bacon there.
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Haste_2
12/18/18 4:09:29 PM
#211:


Is it just me or are a lot of the values Link has historically been set at pretty dumb? I, uh, really, REALLY don't think 2007 Link being worth 59.90% on Base Link is a thing.

I agree that they are really dumb. In fact, I made the 2007 stats eleven years ago because it seems nobody wanted to. I used Morgoth's mult-way poll calculations, which was the prevailing x-stats method at the time, to show how terrible that method of extrapolating is. Honestly, the probability/ratio method of calculating works a LOT better. Even the linear calculations (which we use in all 1v1 matches) work better than Morgoth's, despite its inaccuracies in 3/4-way polls.

I'm wondering how 2008's x-stats were created, though, because they don't look like they used Morgoth's method. (I was completely AWOL between late 2008 and 2010.) It looks like the traditional linear calculations were used that year.

EDIT:
LeonhartFour posted...
Except Zero Suit Samus doesn't even hurt Samus anymore because it's firmly become established as its own thing because of Smash.


Didn't Samus get a ZSS pic against Snake? What if a ZSS pic actually makes Samus stronger now? Unfortunately, the pics on creative's site are in pieces and scattered, so I'm not able to check on what pics were used in which matches.
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Logience
12/18/18 4:11:39 PM
#212:


Okay, I probably would anti-vote Hobonix, but that's depending on who he's up against, not on reflex.
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LeonhartFour
12/18/18 4:16:45 PM
#213:


Haste_2 posted...
Didn't Samus get a ZSS pic against Snake? What if a ZSS pic actually makes Samus stronger now? Unfortunately, the pics on creative's site are in pieces and scattered, so I'm not able to check on what pics were used in which matches.


Yep, the ZSS pic was the one she got against Snake.

But even when she got it in other contests beyond 2006, there wasn't any real noticeable difference in her performance.
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charmander6000
12/18/18 4:20:56 PM
#214:


Lopen posted...
There are other factors to consider in Ganondorf vs Luigi r2/r3 than just Bacondorf in that contest. The size of the vote to draw matters a lot. Ganondorf is going to crumble harder the tougher his competition gets because of the nature of his leechy fanbase. I'd blame GAME FUEL Master Chief shrinking their combined portion of the vote from 60 to 45 more than Bacon there.


Sonic/Ganondorf also suggested around a 4% shift. Again Pig Ganon isn't a huge factor like Solid **** or Lawyer Vincent or Maskless Joker.
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Advokaiser
12/18/18 4:39:12 PM
#215:


Wait... How does a Zero Suit pic hurt Samus? She looks way cooler without the Power Suit imo.
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Nanis23
12/18/18 4:41:46 PM
#216:


Advokaiser posted...
Wait... How does a Zero Suit pic hurt Samus? She looks way cooler without the Power Suit imo.

Today? it doesn't
Back then? she only had it in the GBA game Zero Mission
It was too new, not widely known to be Samus design
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Safer_777
12/18/18 4:44:25 PM
#217:


You people that know your contests. We all know that FF cast got a massive boost when KH 1 came.
But why the same didn't happened with KH 2 release?
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_SecretSquirrel
12/18/18 5:53:33 PM
#218:


Safer_777 posted...
You people that know your contests. We all know that FF cast got a massive boost when KH 1 came.
But why the same didn't happened with KH 2 release?

There's multiple reasons or theories as to why. The fact that KH2 was a sequel, and thus didn't diversify the Final Fantasy fanbase in the same way the original did. There's also the fact that 2006 was the year of Wii hype, specifically with Twilight Princess incoming. People were more excited for new Zelda with a Link more resembling the Ocarina of Time Adult Link as opposed to Toon Link. And of course, there was the announcement of Brawl, and the inclusion of Snake.

Meanwhile, Kingdom Hearts came out during a very weird period in Nintendo's history, where Link was cel-shaded and sailing for Triforce pieces, and Mario was wielding a water gun. History is kinder to this period now, but back then, the fanbase at large was still digesting a lot of these changes and it was favorable to the Square contingent.
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red sox 777
12/18/18 6:03:26 PM
#219:


Honestly, new Square did pretty well in 2006. Didn't Link vs. Cloud take place on Twilight Princess's launch day? And Cloud still broke 46%. Only 1.5% worse than in 2005. If Link vs. Cloud happened on the first day of the contest instead of the last, Cloud very likely beats his 2005 score.

2 days before Link vs. Cloud, we had a 4-way with Link vs. Cloud vs. Sephiroth vs. Snake.....and Snake barely beat a Sephiroth who was facing SFF from Cloud. Earlier in the contest, Tifa got 49% on Zero Suit Samus, Vincent got 48% on Sonic, and Auron got 46% on Crono. Squall put up good numbers too, although I forgot the details.

Knowing what we do about the power of hype and launch days of big titles, I think we can't rule out Cloud beating Link that year if the poll were held a month or 2 earlier.
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OrangeCrush980
12/18/18 6:07:49 PM
#220:


Nanis23 posted...
I wonder what Smash Ultimate rank would be on unikgamer if that site was still alive


Favslist replaced Unikgamer, but unfortunately that's not very alive either. Super Smash Bros Ultimate is still unranked in Favorite Video Games.
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charmander6000
12/18/18 6:23:35 PM
#221:


Sora and Riku also did quite well with KH2 while Kairi and Axel were okay too.
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Kotetsu534
12/18/18 8:32:12 PM
#222:


That was the year Sora and Riku were getting mid-40s on Mega Man and Yoshi respectively (okay, a weak MM, but still). KH2 was strong but I just don't think the characters really "hit" with GameFAQs. Their strength faded pretty quickly. If the site had been ten years younger we played KH/2 at the same age we did OoT and FFVII they'd have been monsters (until Square ruined them anyway).
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LeonhartFour
12/18/18 9:20:58 PM
#223:


I mean, Mega Man may have been weaker in 2006, but nearly 46% on him is no joke any year. Sora looked pretty darn strong most years until 2010, honestly.
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LiquidOshawott
12/18/18 9:36:12 PM
#224:


Safer_777 posted...
You people that know your contests. We all know that FF cast got a massive boost when KH 1 came.
But why the same didn't happened with KH 2 release?


I feel like they did pretty ok? Tifa nearly upset Samus and Squall And Auron both put respectable performances against noble niners.

I think its more that their inclusion in KH opened up some floodgates. I think a decent number of peoples first exposure to FF was through KH1
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LusterSoldier
12/18/18 11:38:44 PM
#225:


Allen has inputted enough polls into the database to take us all the way up to poll ID 7469. This takes us all the way up to 1/8/2019. So we will have 8 days of GotY polls before the overall GotY poll. Although the System of the Year poll will probably happen after the Final Vote GotY poll (if we get one this year).

I haven't gone through and determined the full list of polls for the rest of this year (before the start of the GotY polls).
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LusterSoldier
12/18/18 11:56:47 PM
#226:


Poll schedule for the rest of this year:

12/19/2018 - What's your favorite thing about this time of year?
12/20/2018 - How skillfully do you wrap the gifts you give to others?
12/21/2018 - How do you keep warm in your home during the winter?
12/22/2018 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea.
12/23/2018 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea.
12/24/2018 - 'Twas the night before Christmas, and what are you doing?
12/25/2018 - What did you get for Christmas (or another December holiday)?
12/26/2018 - Got 3DS?
12/27/2018 - Got PlayStation 4?
12/28/2018 - Got Switch?
12/29/2018 - Got Xbox One?
12/30/2018 - Got a gaming-quality PC?
12/31/2018 - Got Smartphone?
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LinkMarioSamus
12/19/18 4:01:28 AM
#227:


Nanis23 posted...
Advokaiser posted...
Wait... How does a Zero Suit pic hurt Samus? She looks way cooler without the Power Suit imo.

Today? it doesn't
Back then? she only had it in the GBA game Zero Mission
It was too new, not widely known to be Samus design


I dunno, that seemed more like some general weirdness to me than something to specifically attribute to Zero Suit Samus.
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NowItsAngeTime
12/19/18 4:24:39 AM
#228:


_SecretSquirrel posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
swirIdude posted...
Bold of you to say that just after he was announced for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. Do you try to be this wrong or is that just your nature?

I wasn't aware of the announcement, because: A) who cares about a complete rehash of Smash 4 and B) who cares about Persona?

I can't believe that anyone who just watched the last few months unfold could possibly to the conclusion that the public is apathetic about Smash Ultimate, when things happened like King K. Rool threatened to upset Commander Shepherd, or King Dedede almost upset Revolver Ocelot.

That bubble you live in must be really comfortable as hell.


I can't believe people still respond to Black Turtle seriously
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Safer_777
12/19/18 11:29:55 AM
#229:


Okay people makes sense. So as I said multiple times I want to see the FF cast in KH 3. And in next generation the FF 7 remake!
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Advokaiser
12/19/18 11:39:45 AM
#230:


Oh man, you know what I was thinking the other day? If Sans had gone past Round 4, they would've had to reuse the same picture over and over again (assuming only official artwork was allowed). That would've been both hilarious and sad at the same time.
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KamikazePotato
12/19/18 1:19:40 PM
#231:


I thought about that back when the bracket came out, except that I can't even think of stuff they could use past Round 2 that wouldn't be a repeat.

1. Overworld sprite
2. Battle sprite
3. ???
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AxemRedRanger
12/19/18 2:18:10 PM
#232:


well, there's the official sans plushie!
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ZenOfThunder
12/19/18 2:32:15 PM
#233:


Advokaiser posted...
Oh man, you know what I was thinking the other day? If Sans had gone past Round 4, they would've had to reuse the same picture over and over again (assuming only official artwork was allowed). That would've been both hilarious and sad at the same time.


having to work with the same 3 pics of draven was already torture
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AxemRedRanger
12/19/18 2:36:04 PM
#234:


I just realized:

Wario - 24.08
Waluigi - 23.37


And Waluigi's actually ahead if you don't adjust Zelda's early opponents down.

Wario/Waluigi who ya got
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Nanis23
12/19/18 2:42:04 PM
#235:


AxemRedRanger posted...
I just realized:

Wario - 24.08
Waluigi - 23.37


And Waluigi's actually ahead if you don't adjust Zelda's early opponents down.

Wario/Waluigi who ya got

Waluigi easily
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swirIdude
12/19/18 3:25:41 PM
#236:


Nanis23 posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
I just realized:

Wario - 24.08
Waluigi - 23.37


And Waluigi's actually ahead if you don't adjust Zelda's early opponents down.

Wario/Waluigi who ya got

Waluigi easily

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Team Rocket Elite
12/19/18 5:37:31 PM
#237:


We've actually had a character that had to keep using the same image over and over again:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-060.jpg
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-094.jpg
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-111.jpg
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Logience
12/19/18 6:09:59 PM
#238:


Does Wario have legitimate strength AND joke vote strength combined?
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Team Rocket Elite
12/19/18 6:15:16 PM
#239:


Waluigi doesn't have both of those either. >_>
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Haste_2
12/19/18 10:32:37 PM
#240:


40% on Zero or 43% or Aeris? I think I'll take the latter, but it's close.

Shovel Knight vs. Commander Shepard, who ya got?

>_> (Captain Shepard? Oops, I guess I had Captain Toad on my mind...)
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garetha200
12/19/18 10:40:41 PM
#241:


Shepard but it would be close enough to be really embarassing for him
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_SecretSquirrel
12/19/18 10:46:31 PM
#242:


Team Rocket Elite posted...
We've actually had a character that had to keep using the same image over and over again:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-060.jpg
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-094.jpg
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-111.jpg

Technically, I think those are two different images. One from a standard GameBoy, and the other has a GBC pallette.
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_SecretSquirrel
12/19/18 11:05:19 PM
#243:


KamikazePotato posted...
I thought about that back when the bracket came out, except that I can't even think of stuff they could use past Round 2 that wouldn't be a repeat.

1. Overworld sprite
2. Battle sprite
3. ???

There is Sans's Steam trading card picture.

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/steamtradingcards/images/7/7f/SansArtwork.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20151011234123
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Lopen
12/20/18 12:52:51 PM
#244:


I think Wario would wreck Waluigi. Wario SFFs all of the votes Waluigi is getting but the joke ones, and I guarantee you his Nintendo affiliation is helping more than his joke appeal.

It's basically the villain equivalent of trying to say Luigi would beat Mario. Luigi has some special appeal that should give him a chance there, but he has no chance at all.
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Safer_777
12/20/18 12:59:34 PM
#245:


Wario wins.
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BlAcK TuRtLe
12/20/18 2:50:47 PM
#246:


Depends, if Waluigi doesn't get a surprise Smash DLC announcement, Wario wins. If there's a character battle tomorrow, I give it to Waluigi just for the meme.
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Safer_777
12/20/18 4:26:19 PM
#247:


Aren't there any good villaines in the games any more? We have Ganon, Bowser and Sephiroth that do good in the contests and that is. Nothing more. What happened to them?
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_SecretSquirrel
12/20/18 4:30:45 PM
#248:


Safer_777 posted...
Aren't there any good villaines in the games any more? We have Ganon, Bowser and Sephiroth that do good in the contests and that is. Nothing more. What happened to them?

When were there ever really strong villains besides them? We had a contest all about villains, and there was a 10% drop off on the expected percentage against Seph after Bowser and Ganon.
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Zylothewolf
12/20/18 4:33:26 PM
#249:


Safer_777 posted...
Aren't there any good villaines in the games any more? We have Ganon, Bowser and Sephiroth that do good in the contests and that is. Nothing more. What happened to them?


You forgot Kefka. ;)

But that's because villains are usually really forgetable in current gen games.
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Safer_777
12/20/18 4:43:20 PM
#250:


Don't they say that a game/movie is as good as it's villain?
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swirIdude
12/20/18 4:58:43 PM
#251:


Safer_777 posted...
Don't they say that a game/movie is as good as it's villain?


No one ever says that about video games except maybe Far Cry 3 through 5.
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Safer_777
12/20/18 5:01:35 PM
#252:


Yeah guess that is true. Still a good villain makes you want to beat them. But yeah games are different than movies,
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