Board 8 > The Show EP 10- Zelda/Cloud Upset Madness, Crono/MM Slugfest! w TPLink and MZero

(+) Yeah! (+)

Very special time on The Show... not only another four man pod, not only another New Blood episode, it was also International Week! ZeldaTPLink joined us from Brazil while MZero hopped on from literally the other side of the globe in Japan to help cover the (insane) last week of results.

http://board8.speedrunwiki.com/interviews/theshow/20181212-TheShowEP10.mp3

* nailbiters every day! live updates on Zelda/Cloud throughout the evening

* it's a madhouse! previous results mean nothing; are our theories on SmartVoterFAQs and the Unified Theory (having to judge everything on specific matchups) being justified?

* going through the last week match by match, then picking our top Star and Turd

* could either of these two hold Link under 60 in the Grand Final?

* looking ahead to next week's Wrapup Show- getting overall Contest Grades from our Guests

I thought this one turned out really well and we got some interesting new insights from our first-timers, I hope you'll agree!
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To catch last week's episode, or anything from the past, visit our home on the web

https://board8.wikia.com/wiki/The_Show


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tag
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I'm actually able to watch upon release for the first time this season.
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How is Zelda letting Cloud get away with this- where are those hentai rallies when we need them?!
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So is this what you guys call the show curse?

Ngamer64 posted...

How is Zelda letting Cloud get away with this- where are those hentai rallies when we need them?!

I wouldn't be shocked if those communities are beginning to get sick of the rallies, although it could be that people see Cloud as the best possible opponent for Link in the finals and aren't doing the rallies. Either way, they appear to have blown their load.
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I'm always amused when someone calls Crono or CT "timeless."

But it was good to see Crono continue to win matches even as the last non-Smash entity in the bracket.
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

So is this what you guys call the show curse?

Nah an official Show Curse is when we think a result is so obvious we don't even discuss it, then it goes the other way.

This one is Plain Old Fashioned We're Dumb.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Ngamer64 posted...

How is Zelda letting Cloud get away with this- where are those hentai rallies when we need them?!

Either way, they appear to have blown their load.

Blew their load a bit prematurely on what was supposed to be a dry run, you say? Okay, I could see that.


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Currently downloading this episode. Will listen to it after the final match starts.

For the Wrap-Up Show, I recommend waiting at least 3 days after the contest ends before doing the final episode because the stats guys are still working on the adjusted X-Stats.
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So one thing I thought of adding but ended up thinking it would be a little too much of a digress.

When I was trying to predict Mario vs Zelda, I tried to use xstats to do it. Since old Zelda stats are garbage, I needed to find something to compare. My plan was to compare them through Ocelot and The Boss, since I figured out whatever MGS deboost happened should affect them equally.

So I ran Mario vs Zelda using Ocelot/TB 2010 stats. The result: Mario got 70% on Zelda.

I had to discard those and start from scratch. But this ties with the point I was making about how we underestimated the guys who lost to Zelda. Turns out that MGS deboost affected Ocelot much more than The Boss? Ocelot has always been stronger than TB here but after this contest they may have reversed the hierarchy between them. Weird.
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

I had to discard those and start from scratch. But this ties with the point I was making about how we underestimated the guys who lost to Zelda. Turns out that MGS deboost affected Ocelot much more than The Boss? Ocelot has always been stronger than TB here but after this contest they may have reversed the hierarchy between them. Weird.

That actually makes sense if you consider The Boss really only being tied to one game, MGS3, which was proven to be the strongest MGS game in BGE3. Meanwhile, Ocelot is probably tied to the series in general which isn't in the best spot right now.
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Ooh, I know what I'll be listening to tonight!

Also, a couple of preliminary points I wanted to make,

LusterSoldier posted...

For the Wrap-Up Show, I recommend waiting at least 3 days after the contest ends before doing the final episode because the stats guys are still working on the adjusted X-Stats.

FWIW, KP's adjusted X-Stats are already more or less done.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Turns out that MGS deboost affected Ocelot much more than The Boss? Ocelot has always been stronger than TB here but after this contest they may have reversed the hierarchy between them. Weird.

Not quite always. In 2013, The Boss got 42% on Bowser, whereas Ocelot scored 42% on Auron, in a match where his picture should have canceled out any benefit from overlap.
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Just going to drop this here.
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MetalmindStats posted...

FWIW, KP's adjusted X-Stats are already more or less done.

I don't think they can be considered a finished product when we could still have some bonus matches that could factor into some adjustments.
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As of right now, I have just started listening to this episode.
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Another quick turnaround, huh.
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Why does it keep sounding like youre saying PikaTwo?
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Also, URRRRGH, that ZeldaTPLink mic sensitivity, make it stop, please.
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Yeah, my comment on the x-stats being Pretty Reliable this year didn't age super well.
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My contest grade is a B+

No rallies with the size of Draven or Undertale was great to see. Lots of exciting matches in the later part of the contest was also exciting.

The bad parts of the contest was doing the 6 day Thanksgiving break for people to fill out a Second Chance bracket. The break killed our vote totals and we never once got above 30000 votes after the break. This problem could have been solved by running bonus matches during the break. My idea for bonus matches during the Thanksgiving break would have involved the losers of the division finals being placed into a series of bonus polls. We would have gotten these matches:

Vivi vs. Zero
Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Kirby
Aerith Gainsborough vs. Geralt
Luigi vs. Ryu

The winners of each match would move onto the next round (it would be a mini bracket of 8 characters) and we could have done one match per day during the 6 day Thanksgiving break. It would have solved the problem of keeping the site interested in the contest during the break.

Another problem with the contest was the match pictures. Not giving Board 8 a chance to suggest better pictures for the early rounds of the contest.
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For those concerned, I made it to work 3 minutes early! Close call
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I was really, really hoping that someone would say Zelda would win by 69 votes.
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Don't have time to post full comments, but overall it was a really fun episode. The two new guests did a great job!
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We mostly sang SB's praises in this episode, and I stand by our comments.

HOWEVER

The one thing that leaves me a tiny bit bitter... Spider-Man would have entered the bracket coming in hot with a GotY-worthy #1 video game on the site, as we've discussed. And he would have (potentially!) left the bracket tonight, in the Grand Finals versus Link, on the day his new movie with a 85 Metacritic, 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and 95% audience score is hitting theaters on its way to a $40 million+ weekend.

What a missed opportunity!


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Logience posted...

Also, URRRRGH, that ZeldaTPLink mic sensitivity, make it stop, please.

Sorry that was my first time using this mic.

Before it started NG asked me to increase the sensitivity, which I did, but I guess the issue was related to a fan making background noise. I did turn off the fan but didn't think of changing the mic setting again.
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Perfect bracket would have 700 points. So first place I think is going to be a -157 bracket. Clearly only overwhelming rallies can make these contests unpredictable.
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BK_Sheikah00 posted...

Perfect bracket would have 700 points. So first place I think is going to be a -157 bracket. Clearly only overwhelming rallies can make these contests unpredictable.

Only overwhelming rallies can make the winner unpredictable.
Everything else is mostly in the air (and when yo usee Cloud Zelda Samus and Mario being so close, there is a lot of luck involved).

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Logience posted...

Also, URRRRGH, that ZeldaTPLink mic sensitivity, make it stop, please.

Sorry that was my first time using this mic.

Before it started NG asked me to increase the sensitivity, which I did, but I guess the issue was related to a fan making background noise. I did turn off the fan but didn't think of changing the mic setting again.

It wasnt just a fan. It was how I could hear your entire house from your mic. Was that a microwave someone was using?
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Logience posted...

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Logience posted...

Also, URRRRGH, that ZeldaTPLink mic sensitivity, make it stop, please.

Sorry that was my first time using this mic.

Before it started NG asked me to increase the sensitivity, which I did, but I guess the issue was related to a fan making background noise. I did turn off the fan but didn't think of changing the mic setting again.

It wasnt just a fan. It was how I could hear your entire house from your mic. Was that a microwave someone was using?

Possibly, my mother was still awake at the time.

My point is, the fan was why NG asked me to tune the mic up, but after I turned the fan off, maybe I should have tuned the mic down too.

Again, sorry, I don't have much experience with mics.
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I dont think its fair to criticize mic quality on the Show when yo has been using just his phone for like 3 years
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ZenOfThunder posted...

I dont think its fair to criticize mic quality on the Show when yo has been using just his phone for like 3 years

If it detracts from my ability to enjoy or even hear the podcast, then it's something worth noting. And when Yoblazer was talking for three minutes straight at around the 20 minute mark or so, all I could hear was a whole bunch of loud, unrelated noise that somebody else's mic was picking up and hurting my ears.
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It's not that big of a deal, dude.
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KamikazePotato posted...

It's not that big of a deal, dude.

It's still not something that I feel should go unaddressed, though.
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Don't worry, we'll up the professionalism next year when Nintendo sponsors us with a $2 million contract!


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HEY Luster how are we looking for these tiebreakers?
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Final tiebreaker results:

Overall contest - 2961616
Second Chance contest - 572390
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Up. Will probably listen at work tomorrow.
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I strongly disagree with the assertion that Mega Man came out of this contest looking pretty good overall. That Pikachu loss alone was ugly, given that an overwhelming majority of B8 picked Mega Man, plus the narrative of the turbocharged legends, prevalent as it was beforehand. It looks even worse when you consider that 2013 Mega Man practically beat Pikachu and Mega-Mewtwo combined, and there's no real reason he should have gotten weaker since considering he increased if anything from 2010 to 2013. Mega Man was also a widely-chosen pre-contest pick over Crono, and a decent minority even expected him to beat Cloud (myself included), and yet he lost to Crono's lack of relevance, and would have gotten crushed by Cloud even if he had somehow won. I wouldn't go as far as saying Mega Man is one of the overall turds of the contest, but to me, he's much closer to that end than he is to being a star.

As for Crono, his history makes his results this contest look good, and yet I still feel something's lacking. It's just really surprising to me that he's so much weaker than his game, even though most main protagonists (who are actually the focus of their game/series) track nicely with their game/series in terms of strength. However, I guess it's possible that CT's entire mega-boost happened before 2013, which would make Crono looking static compared to 2013 fairly good. He's definitely closer to the star end of the spectrum than the turd end, I'll say that much, but I wasn't impressed, and I definitely can't see him being among the overall stars of the contest. Not that anyone argued that, to my knowledge, but still.

Finally, I'm actually starting to think that there's something to the theory of Samus being Snake's kryptonite. Snake is already a bit worse off against Nintendo characters than against non-Nintendo characters due to the Smash series. Then you take pretty much the one Nintendo character who has significant quote-un-quote mature appeal, for lack of a better word, and it makes some sense that Snake would disproportionately suffer.
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MetalmindStats posted...

Snake is already a bit worse off against Nintendo characters than against non-Nintendo characters due to the Smash series.

But he's really not.

Literally did better against Link than Cloud did in 2006 and 2010.
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I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that 2010 Cloud was weaker than 2013 Snake, along with 2013 Link probably being below 2010 Link. As for 2006, I think it's safe to say that was Link's best year. As such, I still contend that Snake is likely to perform one or two percentage points worse against a Nintendo character than versus a non-Nintendo character of the exact same strength.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Don't have time to post full comments, but overall it was a really fun episode. The two new guests did a great job!

Thanks KP! It means a lot coming from you!
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MetalmindStats posted...

I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that 2010 Cloud was weaker than 2013 Snake, along with 2013 Link probably being below 2010 Link. As for 2006, I think it's safe to say that was Link's best year. As such, I still contend that Snake is likely to perform one or two percentage points worse against a Nintendo character than versus a non-Nintendo character of the exact same strength.

So, what, are we saying 2013 Snake was just as strong if not stronger than 2013 Link?

Anyway, listened at work today. Good episode and good work by the guests.
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LeonhartFour posted...

So, what, are we saying 2013 Snake was just as strong if not stronger than 2013 Link?

Oops, I should pay closer attention to what I'm implying. Anyways, I would at the very least say that Link 2010 > Link 2013 is an uncontroversial statement, and that alone would explain why Snake fared better.
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Sure, but the point is that if Link can't do it to Snake, why should we believe anyone else can? I think the idea is based on the false premise that Snake was stronger than Samus in 2006 to begin with.
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Also, the more I think about it, the more it feels like Samus was wasted in this bracket. Two matches with Tifa and two matches with Mario, with the Snake match in between, left us with more questions than answers. I feel like we have a pretty good idea where everyone in the Noble Nine is in relation to each other right now except for Samus.
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I've finally finished listening to this episode. Good stuff, everyone, especially the guests!

A few more specific things I wanted to mention:

First, and just a minor detail, but one I've personally really grown to appreciate for its irony, is that Cloud prevailed against Mario thanks to rallies. And I can't help but think that Yo was the only B8er who was both around for both Cloud/Mario matches and got the winner he wanted out of each of them.

Second, it was pretty funny having all three of you choose the same star and turd of the past week. Samus and Mario are very good choices, too, even if I might not have chosen them as my number 1 star and turd, respectively.

Finally, my overall contest grade is B+, and like TPLink, I would rank CBX first out of the four contests I was around for (2013 to the present). The plus there is for generally excellent bracket design (excepting Allen's decision not to flip the losers' bracket positioning). There were definitely things Allen could have done better (match pictures, for one), but what's truly keeping CBX out of the A range for me is the lack of matches/results that were more than momentarily exciting for me personally. The only true F5-type match for me was Garrus vs. Ramza during the night, and that was a meaningless one-pointer. As close as Mario vs. Samus II was, I just wasn't very excited by it because of the lack of trends.
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I was around for 2006-2008 but I was so casual in them I really don't know how to compare. I guess 2007 was really cool. I dropped 2008 in the middle iirc.

I'm not sure if I made a bracket for 2010 but I think remember the Crono vs Missingno match? So I did come here at some point. It was the first year of college though so it would be easier for a contest to leave my mind.

I came at the end of GotD and managed to see the "what is a decade" controversy, but I didn't make a bracket for that either. And I missed the other side contests.

2013 was when I actually started caring a lot about it and have been caring since then.
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Anyway, my memory of things that happened 10 years ago behaves like it normally should if I'm not a contest nerd who stays here talking stats: I forgot almost everything.
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More.
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Ngamer64 posted...

We mostly sang SB's praises in this episode, and I stand by our comments.

HOWEVER

The one thing that leaves me a tiny bit bitter... Spider-Man would have entered the bracket coming in hot with a GotY-worthy #1 video game on the site, as we've discussed. And he would have (potentially!) left the bracket tonight, in the Grand Finals versus Link, on the day his new movie with a 85 Metacritic, 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and 95% audience score is hitting theaters on its way to a $40 million+ weekend.

What a missed opportunity!

It's past time to open it up to fictional characters for this reason.

We don't need to go insane and have a 95% fictional character bracket, but the occasional Spiderman, Batman, Joker, Geralt, Thanos, or [insert random MvC3 character] after a major release should absolutely be allowed.

Adolf Hitler made it into a contest. It's not like we'll sink any lower.
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