Board 8 > The Show EP 9 - Tifa Shocks Seph, GotY Announcement, Time to Retire Link? w/ KP

Topic List
Page List: 1, 2
Ngamer64
12/07/18 6:07:29 PM
#1:


There's been some crazy results as we reach the end of this 2018 season, and KP is the man we trust to break down all the action!

http://board8.speedrunwiki.com/interviews/theshow/20181207-TheShowEP09.mp3

* Game of the Year honors and the special Smash announcement

* Link more dominant than ever before- is it time to retire him?

* Tifa > Sephiroth, WHAT!?

* special preview: How KP Will Fix The X-Stats this year

* Salty Runback analysis: Mega Man pulls it off, nothing else changes

* picking Stars and Turds of the past week, then guessing winners of the remaining debated matches

With fewer matches this week we finally had time to do deep dives into what's happening to our Noble Niners, and I think the results were very entertaining. Hope you agree!
---

To catch last week's episode, or anything from the past, visit our home on the web

https://board8.wikia.com/wiki/The_Show


---
BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats
... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour
12/07/18 6:10:05 PM
#2:


... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato
12/07/18 6:18:02 PM
#3:


Was great being on The Show again! Thanks for inviting me.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
... Copied to Clipboard!
_SecretSquirrel
12/07/18 6:46:11 PM
#4:


Tag for whenever I can pull myself away from Smash
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2018 Guru Contest winner. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=40
... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato
12/07/18 7:04:44 PM
#5:


It's freakin' Mario is in danger of being replaced with It's freaking (The Legend of) Zelda.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour
12/07/18 7:05:05 PM
#6:


... Copied to Clipboard!
Ngamer64
12/07/18 7:48:39 PM
#7:


Uh oh I didn't even want to talk about this one- it's almost like we've been CURSED!


---
BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats
... Copied to Clipboard!
LusterSoldier
12/07/18 7:49:22 PM
#8:


I'll download this right now, but I'll listen to it later tonight.

Zelda is currently in the process of possibly defeating a third Noble Niner, with even more blood possibly on her hands after Link sends her to the Loser bracket. Zelda could upset Samus in the Loser bracket, but it requires Samus to defeat Snake to avoid a rematch. Then Zelda gets a crack at Cloud if she makes it that far in Losers.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
... Copied to Clipboard!
haloiscoolisbak
12/07/18 7:55:01 PM
#9:


Should have done this a day later so you could have dissected Mario Zelda live

Will still listen of course!
---
Started from the bottom now we here
... Copied to Clipboard!
pjbasis
12/07/18 9:15:34 PM
#10:


... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato
12/07/18 9:19:44 PM
#11:


pjbasis posted...
goty announcement?

2018 Game Awards Show.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
... Copied to Clipboard!
Whiskey_Nick
12/07/18 9:27:50 PM
#12:


GotY - Smash
---
I am Nick. Go Sens, Bills, Blue Jays!
UotY 2015, You should listen to The Show w/ Ngamer and Yoblazer
... Copied to Clipboard!
_SecretSquirrel
12/07/18 10:18:43 PM
#13:


Oh man, yoblazer even more pleasant than usual. I can feel the pleasure radiating through my speakers.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2018 Guru Contest winner. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=40
... Copied to Clipboard!
LusterSoldier
12/07/18 10:20:01 PM
#14:


As of right now, I have just started listening to this episode.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
... Copied to Clipboard!
_SecretSquirrel
12/07/18 11:38:41 PM
#15:


While the topic is still in existence...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/400-current-events/77272269#4
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2018 Guru Contest winner. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=40
... Copied to Clipboard!
LusterSoldier
12/08/18 12:41:58 AM
#16:


For the upcoming Snake/Samus match, no one mentioned that Smash just came out in time to possibly influence the match. Earlier in the contest, it was though that Snake could have weakened due to his Smash support drying up (and Smash 4 being much less played by the site compared to Brawl). Smash Ultimate coming out about 2 days before Snake/Samus could be his saving grace as the site will be in full Smash mode at the time.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
... Copied to Clipboard!
_SecretSquirrel
12/08/18 12:46:10 AM
#17:


Samus, Mario, and Snake are now the Fire Emblem weapon triangle apparently.

(and Princess Zelda is the now the equivalent to busting out a nuclear weapon in a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors)
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2018 Guru Contest winner. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=40
... Copied to Clipboard!
LusterSoldier
12/08/18 1:03:32 AM
#18:


2001 beating 1997 in the Years Contest was a case of pic sabotage by Allen (we knew that Allen had 2001 beating 1997 to reach the final in his bracket). A few hours before 2001/1997 happened, Allen was asking the board for Age of Empires pictures. 2001 had no weak game in its match picture where as 1997 was held down by Age of Empires, Tekken 3, Diddy Kong Racing, and the original Fallout.

The Years Contest was also the most pic dependent contest we ever had. Casual voters were treating the contest as a Team vs. Team Games Contest and voting based on the games shown in the match picture for both years.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
... Copied to Clipboard!
haloiscoolisbak
12/08/18 1:20:55 AM
#19:


LusterSoldier posted...
2001 beating 1997 in the Years Contest was a case of pic sabotage by Allen (we knew that Allen had 2001 beating 1997 to reach the final in his bracket). A few hours before 2001/1997 happened, Allen was asking the board for Age of Empires pictures. 2001 had no weak game in its match picture where as 1997 was held down by Age of Empires, Tekken 3, Diddy Kong Racing, and the original Fallout.

The Years Contest was also the most pic dependent contest we ever had. Casual voters were treating the contest as a Team vs. Team Games Contest and voting based on the games shown in the match picture for both years.


Goldeneye and SOTN definitely should have made '97s match pic, I agree. But as someone who had 2001> 1997(and it allowed me to finish 10th overall) I was quite annoyed by everyone saying I got lucky.

It is true that many of us considered it team vs team. Which is why I didn't simply go FF7 = victory

2001 has two games in the top 15 on this site, 1997 only 1. And FFX would definitely siphon off some FF7 votes being from the sane series and all. This meant Melee being the one heavyweight Nintendo game in the mix(goldeneye is strong but not super strong) I felt 2001 was always a smart choice and a worthy winner
---
Started from the bottom now we here
... Copied to Clipboard!
Safer_777
12/08/18 7:45:34 AM
#20:


Of course Link has to be retired.
---
So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing?
... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato
12/08/18 3:49:35 PM
#21:


Feeling good about my 'literally has Zelda in the name' comments right about now!
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
... Copied to Clipboard!
LordoftheMorons
12/08/18 4:13:34 PM
#22:


tag
---
Congrats to BKSheikah for winning the BYIG Guru Challenge!
... Copied to Clipboard!
LordoftheMorons
12/08/18 4:19:04 PM
#23:


Actual GotY was DQ XI...!
---
Congrats to BKSheikah for winning the BYIG Guru Challenge!
... Copied to Clipboard!
LordoftheMorons
12/08/18 4:26:24 PM
#24:


Get on it, GRRM!
---
Congrats to BKSheikah for winning the BYIG Guru Challenge!
... Copied to Clipboard!
MetalmindStats
12/08/18 6:23:31 PM
#25:


My impressions at the 1-hour mark:

That GotY conversation was interesting, even though it wasn't relevant to these contests. My personal preference (though very light since I haven't played anything from this year yet) would have either been Smash Ultimate (though I don't think it was eligible), Dragon Quest XI, or something like Celeste or Return of the Obra Dinn. In my opinion, God of War is a much better winner than Red Dead Redemption 2 would have been, though, and not just because of the surprise factor.

On Joker in Smash: I was kinda disappointed at first, but after reflecting on it and with time, I like the choice about as much as I could without having played any Persona games. In particular, I agree that this suggests good, exciting things about Sakurai's choices for the other DLC characters. I'm also a fan of that trailer, which I hadn't watched at first.

On Link v Cloud: I was previously thinking this was pretty much all on Cloud, but current Link's ~68% on a much stronger Alucard than the one who scored 28% on 2010 Link has me agreeing that Link has also boosted, despite his massive anti-votes.

That story of Yo's is something else. TJF is undoubtedly part of Tifa's stability - it's worth noting, though, that Tifa's picture wasn't made by Ulti, but rather by 'Anonymous', which probably translates to Allen himself.

On X-Stats and Mario crushing Sephy who crushed Ryu: As I went into some detail about on the previous episode, anyone who still thinks Ryu is Mr. Consistent is unfairly overrating him. For the cliffnotes version: his previous matches consisted of doing barely better on Lloyd than Fox in 2010, not coming particularly close to doubling a KOS-MOS who looked off all contest (and with no real TJF in her picture, it's no wonder), and that Shepard result. And we all know what happened to the Mass Effect series. Sephiroth himself sucked it up against Wesker (my favorite random trivia point of the contest: Wesker actually got a few cuts against Sephy) and Amaterasu, while only faring well on Falcon relative to very low expectations.

I absolutely think that voters disproportionately make the main character of a series that's had a disastrous game suffer, due to their association with the series in question, plus generally not having the well-liked characterization to compensate. That's the best explanation I can think of for Garrus being ahead of Shepard now, for example. Even if it winds up overrating Chun-Li in the adjusted X-stats, it happens - X-stats aren't supposed to be the bible of these contests. Just take a look at where Dragonborn was in 2013, and consider that even back then, he only 60-40'd Tom Nook and Pyramid Head, so whatever's happened to other modern Western characters alone can't explain his huge plunge from 2013's adjusted stats. Or for extra hilarity, just take a gander at Claptrap's position in the adjusted 2013 stats. The only thing I would be skeptical about is Chun-Li being outright ahead of Ryu, but the Garrus example demonstrates how it's not impossible by any stretch.

As far as adjusting the stats goes, I'm personally fond of Haste's method of taking a character who can be expected to be constant compared to 2013 (ex. Tidus) and adjusting their entire division (for Link > Ganon in this example) based on that (with the other adjustment of setting 2013 Link equal to base Link, but that's just personal preference). I suppose if you were making a hyper-adjusted set of X-stats, you could peg Chun-Li at the 43% on Ryu she got in that favorites poll, but I'm not of the opinion that there's enough definitive proof to say she overperformed on Ganondorf.

Good stuff so far!
... Copied to Clipboard!
EpsteinBarr
12/08/18 8:42:47 PM
#26:


I liked the part where they went into Cloud and Sephiroth changing through the compilations and KH which may have affected their popularity while Tifa and Aerith relatively stayed the same (although I felt Aeriths personality got radically changed in the compilations). That may explain the rather shocking result between Tifa and Sephiroth. True, you never forget your first love. However, that first love staying the same as she always as while the idolized anti-hero being butchered throughout the compilations had a lot to factor into this.
... Copied to Clipboard!
LusterSoldier
12/08/18 11:58:36 PM
#27:


So it looks like Zelda completes the upset of Mario, making this another potential case of rSFF. Zelda also received hentai rallies against Mario, and it's pretty debatable as to whether the rallies actually affected the outcome of the match. I estimated that the rally brought in about 450 extra votes for Zelda. This was based on an estimate of the match finishing around 48% registered users after looking at hourly trend charts of registered user voting for other matches.

If 450 votes were removed from Zelda, this would give her only 52.40% with anonymous users and change the match to roughly a 3.5% difference between registered and anonymous users. Mario won the registered users with 51.18%.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
... Copied to Clipboard!
Ngamer64
12/09/18 1:21:47 AM
#28:


Hit us with that Hentai Rally Screencap Recap, Zen!


---
BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats
... Copied to Clipboard!
#29
Post #29 was unavailable or deleted.
KamikazePotato
12/09/18 1:25:05 AM
#30:


I believe at one point on this episode that the x-stats for this contest were going to be pretty reliable. Samus is currently doing her best to challenge that claim.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
... Copied to Clipboard!
ZeldaTPLink
12/09/18 12:11:38 PM
#31:


On the subject of Link needing a lot of bad games to weaken: I think that kind of happened already?

Between TP (2006) and LBW (2013), the series just had its weakest sequence of games ever. Now I haven't played any of them myself, but I know most people hate Phantom Hourglass and Spirit Tracks, and the reception to Skyward Sword was lukewarm at best.

In 2013 I even picked Mario to win the contest in my bracket, because I thought the Zelda series had fallen out of favor and Mario was the more stable character. Now not only that didn't work out (thanks Vivi!) but Link then went to nearly beat Draven, with rallies and everything. Even with a 7 year streak of bad games.

And now he has LBW, Hyrule Warriors and BotW. Yeah good luck to anyone deaming of beating Link. You say 5 CDi games? It's more like it would take the entire gamefaqs userbase to die of old age and a new generation of users who were forbidden from playing Zelda to make it happen.
... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777
12/09/18 12:13:54 PM
#32:


As far as Mario/Zelda rSFF, I think it's more likely Mario got rSFF on Zelda than Zelda receiving it against Mario.
---
September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
... Copied to Clipboard!
garetha200
12/09/18 12:29:22 PM
#33:


Critical reception for Skyward Sword was very good due to it being mainline Zelda. Fans turned on the game soon but it had a brief honeymoon period.

(Also, play Spirit Tracks: very underrated game!!!)
... Copied to Clipboard!
XIII_rocks
12/09/18 12:46:12 PM
#34:


Noticed yo talking about those crazy late-tournament results and included trainers > cloud and seph

Was that really so crazy given what Pokemon would go on to do 2 years later?
---
Not to be confused with XIII_Stones.
... Copied to Clipboard!
Ngamer64
12/09/18 8:28:03 PM
#35:


Well The Show certainly took one on the chin with that Zelda CURSE, but good recovery for us since then. We liked Crono to edge it out in the coiniest of coinflips, had high confidence in Samus to move past Snake without much trouble, and thought Samus could keep things interesting in the runback. She's got it down to 27 votes at the moment!


---
BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats
... Copied to Clipboard!
Whiskey_Nick
12/09/18 8:45:20 PM
#36:


I never stopped believing in you Ngamer
---
I am Nick. Go Sens, Bills, Blue Jays!
UotY 2015, You should listen to The Show w/ Ngamer and Yoblazer
... Copied to Clipboard!
Ngamer64
12/09/18 9:20:35 PM
#37:


That's sweet but personally I've never stopped believing in @ZenOfThunder

Ngamer64 posted...
Hit us with that Zelda Hentai Rally Screencap Recap, Zen!

And is this Samus push all GameFAQs or is she getting some offsite help?


---
BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats
... Copied to Clipboard!
MetalmindStats
12/09/18 9:38:46 PM
#38:


XIII_rocks posted...
Was that really so crazy given what Pokemon would go on to do 2 years later?

Well, we lacked the benefit of hindsight in 2011. At the time, Red's last contest result had been barely beating Ocelot, then not remotely threatening Mega Man X. Blue didn't even make the 2010 field. Meanwhile, Cloud and Seph still looked like high-level Noble Niners in 2010.

There's a couple other things I wanted to touch on, another 15 minutes in from my last post. One minor thing is that Pokmon haven't won the registered vote in all their matches - I know Bowser fared something like 1.3% better with GameFAQs users than anons against Charizard.

My final point is a pretty radical proposal I have about Bowser > Kirby: there was no meaningful hierarchy whatsoever in that result, and 46% is what Kirby can be expected to put up against a neutral character of Bowser's strength. To start with, I do agree with Yo that the differing pictures in their match compared to the 2005 version caused a significant swing, but I don't think the correct way to look at it is saying that Kirby underperformed due to a neutral picture compared to Bowser. Instead, I would argue that Kirby's 2005 picture fostered an underdog effect, causing a significant overperformance compared to what he should have gotten on 2005 Bowser (and I know that I said before that their match reflected both their 2005 strengths, but I was wrong). Just looking at that picture, you see both Kirby (with Popo's parka) and the Dream Land background seemingly straight from Melee, while Bowser has a totally different art style, looking like a big boss for the little underdog Kirby to beat. Meanwhile, Kirby's seen breathing ice out at Bowser's fire, which plays into the underdog perception by way of the stereotype of fire having the upper hand over ice. Combined with how a mostly-teenaged GameFAQs arguably perceived Kirby as an inherently funny, practically joke character, the stage was set for a huge overperformance.

As for why that 2005 result isn't what Kirby 'should' have gotten, his notable result beforehand was 58% on Tidus. That was good at the time, but for comparison's sake, the super-strong Bowser of 2005 got a legitimately Noble Nine-level 59% on Ryu (back when Ryu was an actual near-elite), which translates to about 65% on Rikku given Ryu's previous match against her. As Rikku has since proven with such results as 42% on Kirby himself in 2010, she's nearly on par with Tidus, but not if you take 2005 at face value. Similarly, Ryu being just 1% ahead of Tidus doesn't pass the eye test given later contests. Furthermore, since Kirby was just a generic midcarder in 2004, you're asking for him to get an even bigger Nintendo boost (in proportionate terms) than the likes of Mario. If Kirby had really boosted so much as to legitimately get 48% on turbo-Bowser, he would have likely beaten Luigi just a year later, but he instead fell short with only 47%.

In my opinion, Kirby falling off this contest is perfectly reasonable, too. Quite simply, if Fox and Captain Falcon, other characters whose appeal comes disproportionately from Smash and character design, didn't look good, why should Kirby have defied that trend? It's also worth noting that Kirby has always been somewhat of a multi-way leech - in 2010, he scored 45% on an off-looking Sonic (incidentally, about what he'd be currently expected to get on a similarly off-looking Sonic if you take his Bowser match at face value) and in 2013, he required a huge sore thumb / LFF advantage and a vigorous 4chan rally just to beat Big Boss with Sephiroth in the match. Plus, King Dedede beat expectations, but still looked weaker than Meta Knight circa 2007-2010. Because of all that, I'm now convinced that the only wonkiness in Kirby's path was SFF against Phoenix Wright.
... Copied to Clipboard!
LusterSoldier
12/09/18 9:44:10 PM
#39:


Ngamer64 posted...
And is this Samus push all GameFAQs or is she getting some offsite help?


There aren't any hentai rallies just yet, but I assume those will be activated if the match is still within reach when we make it to the morning vote.

The only rally I see is the following topic:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Metroid/comments/a4qzy8/samus_has_a_chance_of_beating_mario_for_the_first/

It has very few upvotes at this point, making it unlikely that the rally is having any effect on the match.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato
12/09/18 11:08:08 PM
#40:


Ngamer64 posted...
Well The Show certainly took one on the chin with that Zelda CURSE, but good recovery for us since then. We liked Crono to edge it out in the coiniest of coinflips, had high confidence in Samus to move past Snake without much trouble, and thought Samus could keep things interesting in the runback. She's got it down to 27 votes at the moment!

KP, The Genius: "Samus may have been hurt by her sprite last round."

I may have done horribly this contest, but I'll take making one or two smart comments on The Show as a consolation price!
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
... Copied to Clipboard!
ZenOfThunder
12/10/18 12:12:53 AM
#41:


KlBLd5V
---
drooling while eating
... Copied to Clipboard!
Ngamer64
12/10/18 1:03:38 AM
#42:


Holy smokes that's over 2,200 upvotes! No wonder she's unbeatable in any match that stays within a couple hundredish votes.

Well, with that in mind Mario and Cloud will have no chance in a runback. Buuuut... if Samus gets to Loser's Finals instead, she could counter with her zero suit. Now that could be interesting.


---
BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats
... Copied to Clipboard!
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 1:18:26 AM
#43:


Zelda probably won't be able to hentai rally her way past Samus as you'd expect at least some backfire votes as Zelda is facing another female who has lots of hentai as well. Besides, a rematch of Link/Zelda would be worse than Link/Samus. I'd be interested in seeing how much Link can SFF Samus as we will already know Samus's indirect strength on Link by using Link/Cloud and Cloud/Samus.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
... Copied to Clipboard!
XIII_rocks
12/10/18 7:14:27 AM
#44:


LusterSoldier posted...
Ngamer64 posted...
And is this Samus push all GameFAQs or is she getting some offsite help?


There aren't any hentai rallies just yet, but I assume those will be activated if the match is still within reach when we make it to the morning vote.

The only rally I see is the following topic:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Metroid/comments/a4qzy8/samus_has_a_chance_of_beating_mario_for_the_first/

It has very few upvotes at this point, making it unlikely that the rally is having any effect on the match.


Thanks for ripping out my heart Luster
---
Not to be confused with XIII_Stones.
... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour
12/10/18 4:55:41 PM
#45:


... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes
12/10/18 5:04:18 PM
#46:


Minor correction regarding the Game Awards stuff:

Fortnite was not nominated for GotY, and I think it wasn't even eligible as TGA allows games the year they become playable, so Fortnite was eligible last year. Either way though it is hugely popular I don't think many are pushing for it as a GotY contender.
---
I just decided to change this sig.
Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah
... Copied to Clipboard!
Ngamer64
12/10/18 7:08:21 PM
#47:


Noooooo Mario you fool! You've got no hope against this steroid fueled God Mode Zelda, we needed you to take the knee and set up Hentai Fest 2018 against Samus!


---
BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats
... Copied to Clipboard!
squexa
12/10/18 7:10:31 PM
#48:


So about retiring Link...
---
congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru
... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato
12/10/18 7:11:14 PM
#49:


squexa posted...
So about retiring Link...

Give it another half an hour.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato
12/10/18 7:55:51 PM
#50:


KamikazePotato posted...
squexa posted...
So about retiring Link...

Give it another half an hour.

And that's all she wrote.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
... Copied to Clipboard!
Topic List
Page List: 1, 2