Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1317

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Averia
12/06/18 12:12:52 PM
1
Those matches are so interesting no one had created this topic even with the previous one at 491 posts.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis, and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends
Safer_777
12/06/18 12:46:57 PM
2
LAW.
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So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing?
CaptainOfCrush
12/06/18 12:49:20 PM
3
So expand my last post regarding Zelda a bit...

I think the matches she has coming up - Mario and then likely Samus - are the most interesting ones she can get. She's already faced Snake, Sonic, and two Square near-elites (and the results of those suggest she'd clobber Tifa, Sephiroth, Crono, and Mega Man). I'd rather see where she actually ranks among the A-Team Nintendo hierarchy than see a direct match against Cloud, though we could still plausibly see both.
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LinkMarioSamus
12/06/18 12:56:37 PM
4
I'm surprised Snake was the pre-contest favorite against Samus despite Metal Gear being dead and Metroid having just been resurrected.

Admittedly yeah Zelda may just be that strong. Is Snake beating his 2006 result against Sonic? Then again even if he is, that probably says more about how far Sonic has fallen.

Wait wait wait so Snake can kill Sonic like this yet Big Boss can't blow out freaking Crash Bandicoot?
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
KamikazePotato
12/06/18 12:57:31 PM
5
Regarding Samus vs. Snake - what's better? 57.5% on Sonic or 58.9% on Tifa?

It's also worth noting that Snake is outperforming Zelda on Sonic.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
squexa
12/06/18 12:58:46 PM
6
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I'm surprised Snake was the pre-contest favorite against Samus despite Metal Gear being dead and Metroid having just been resurrected.

Admittedly yeah Zelda may just be that strong. Is Snake beating his 2006 result against Sonic? Then again even if he is, that probably says more about how far Sonic has fallen.

Wait wait wait so Snake can kill Sonic like this yet Big Boss can't blow out freaking Crash Bandicoot?


Crash boosted.

Big Boss is projected to get 43% on Bowser this year, which isn't far from where his 2010 xstats are. Not to mention he didn't get his Naked Snake pic so he likely underperformed as well.
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congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru
KamikazePotato
12/06/18 12:59:12 PM
7
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Wait wait wait so Snake can kill Sonic like this yet Big Boss can't blow out freaking Crash Bandicoot?

Big Boss is not Snake. The voters are aware of this.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
KamikazePotato
12/06/18 1:01:12 PM
8
2010 stats regarding Bowser are worthless. He was stuck around Charizard that year. A better comparison is Big Boss managing to beat Luigi with assist from Ness LFF in 2013, which is a clear step above what he was capable of doing this year.

Big Boss has specific reasons to deboost thanks to MGS5. Partly related to game reception, and partly related to spoilers.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
squexa
12/06/18 1:03:49 PM
9
Threeway stats are even worse. That's how we get weird matches like Kefka beating Ryu Hayabusa with Zack in the poll or The Boss almost beating Sub-Zero.

It's hard to tell exactly what happens when there's no Ness in the poll.
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congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru
CaptainOfCrush
12/06/18 1:04:55 PM
10
I'm willing to give Zelda the benefit of the doubt against Sonic and say that she underperformed slightly due to a bad picture mismatch. If she didn't - which suggests Snake might be a hair stronger indirectly and she just ripped some Nintendo support away from him - it suggests good things for her against Samus and possibly even Mario.
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KamikazePotato
12/06/18 1:10:04 PM
11
squexa posted...
It's hard to tell exactly what happens when there's no Ness in the poll.

Here's what happens: Luigi beats Big Boss by a little bit.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5232-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-2-luigi-vs-big-boss-vs

Three-ways aren't so weird that you can't spy an obvious LFF situation when you see one. Here's some more proof:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3747-mushroom-division-round-1-big-boss-vs-edgeworth
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7286-division-7-round-1-luigi-vs-miles

The first result is from 2010, which is probably peak Big Boss.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
KamikazePotato
12/06/18 1:13:20 PM
12
CaptainOfCrush posted...
I'm willing to give Zelda the benefit of the doubt against Sonic and say that she underperformed slightly due to a bad picture mismatch. If she didn't - which suggests Snake might be a hair stronger indirectly and she just ripped some Nintendo support away from him - it suggests good things for her against Samus and possibly even Mario.

Speaking of pics - I think the one factor that could help Samus in a salty runback against Mario is the picture. They faced in the sprite round before, and I can't imagine that was to her benefit. Samus is a very design-based character and while her sprite is good, I don't think it does her modern 3D design (which is one of the best in the industry) justice. Mario would do very well with a classic SMB3 sprite, especially in a match about the Hierarchy, where classic sprites might remind voters that Samus is facing off against THE Nintendo guy.

Or maybe the result falls within .2% like most of the other rematches have. After a strange start last night, Samus/Tifa is going to end up exactly the same. Same as Crono/Bowser.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
squexa
12/06/18 1:15:14 PM
13
KamikazePotato posted...
squexa posted...
It's hard to tell exactly what happens when there's no Ness in the poll.

Here's what happens: Luigi beats Big Boss by a little bit.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5232-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-2-luigi-vs-big-boss-vs

Three-ways aren't so weird that you can't spy an obvious LFF situation when you see one. Here's some more proof:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3747-mushroom-division-round-1-big-boss-vs-edgeworth
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7286-division-7-round-1-luigi-vs-miles

The first result is from 2010, which is probably peak Big Boss.


But I mean, do we know what percentage of Ness's votes will go to Luigi and what percentage to Big Boss? I suspect nearly all of it could go to Luigi, which makes this a 56-44 beatdown by Luigi, which is pretty close to where Big Boss's at today (43% on Bowser in xstats).
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congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru
pjbasis
12/06/18 1:21:44 PM
14
I think that's pretty ridiculous to assume unless you think Luigi vs Ness would be a 90-10 match
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LinkMarioSamus
12/06/18 1:25:34 PM
15
Okay it was more that Samus 63-37'd Zelda last time they met and I have a hard time imagining any way for Samus to decline so much as to reverse that.

I mean, yeah it's possible, but Snake has reasons to decline since 2013 that Samus really does not.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
squexa
12/06/18 1:26:01 PM
16
It's not that absurd. In the Battle Royale in 2006, when Samus was eliminated, almost all of her votes went to Link and when Mario was eliminated, the vast majority of his votes went to Link as well.
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congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru
CaptainOfCrush
12/06/18 1:26:25 PM
17
I've made this point over and over, but I think it's folly to think of multway polls in such a binary way.

If Luigi/Boss/Ness is 43/43/14 in a 3way, that does not mean that a 1v1 between the two strong entrants begins at 43/43, with only Ness's 14% remaining to divvy up. It's an entirely different match. Anything can happen, including an easy Luigi win or a Big Boss win.
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Lopen
12/06/18 1:26:39 PM
18
pjbasis posted...
I think that's pretty ridiculous to assume unless you think Luigi vs Ness would be a 90-10 match


Not necessarily.

It just means Ness > Big Boss > Luigi vs Ness > Luigi > Big Boss is heavily lopsided in favor of Luigi being #2 in the inequality. Which to me makes sense. People who vote Ness are probably more inclined towards Luigi looking at the appeals of the characters.

Ness vs Luigi doesn't have to be 90-10 because Big Boss > Ness > Luigi inequality exists. I could see Luigi vs Ness being like 70-30 or higher (based on Luigi vs Tails) very easily though.
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ZeldaTPLink
12/06/18 1:26:56 PM
19
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Okay it was more that Samus 63-37'd Zelda last time they met and I have a hard time imagining any way for Samus to decline so much as to reverse that.

I mean, yeah it's possible, but Snake has reasons to decline since 2013 that Samus really does not.


Throw away all pre-2018 stats you have on Zelda. This is a new reality where she gets 63% on Squall.
tennisboy213
12/06/18 1:34:17 PM
20
Well actually I guess we do have a kind of indirect way of measuring Samus/Zelda.

You could run the xstats to see what it says Tifa does to Aerith if Zelda = Samus. Then judge it from there as to whether it sounds plausible


someone do this
ZeldaTPLink
12/06/18 1:36:36 PM
21
tennisboy213 posted...
Well actually I guess we do have a kind of indirect way of measuring Samus/Zelda.

You could run the xstats to see what it says Tifa does to Aerith if Zelda = Samus. Then judge it from there as to whether it sounds plausible


someone do this


I'm doing it right now.

Tifa gets 54% on Aeris if Samus = Zelda.

She would get 60% in 2010 and 62% in 2013, so this does suggest Samus is a step above Zelda.
_SecretSquirrel
12/06/18 1:39:37 PM
22
So, regarding Zelda vs. Mario and/or Samus. Smash releases tomorrow, so there's no telling what that is going to do to the heiarchy.
---
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ZeldaTPLink
12/06/18 1:40:38 PM
23
Never mind Smash releases.

There is an internet rumor saying Metroid Prime 4 trailer is coming tonight.
squexa
12/06/18 1:41:49 PM
24
ZeldaTPLink posted...
I'm doing it right now.

Tifa gets 54% on Aeris if Samus = Zelda.

She would get 60% in 2010 and 62% in 2013, so this does suggest Samus is a step above Zelda.


To be fair Tifa's xstats in 2010 are likely to be inflated due to the weird Sephiroth match where she might have rSFFed him. If you plug in 2010 xstats, Tifa beats Mega Man X with 55% and she beats Luigi with 56%.

And 2013 xstats are just weird since threeways are weird. I suspect there might be some L-Block Samus LFF since she did 45% on Samus that year. Either that or she just dropped this year.
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congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru
ZeldaTPLink
12/06/18 1:45:59 PM
25
I tried to do a similar comparison yesterday to predict Mario vs Zelda, using The Boss and Ocelot (I also assumed they stayed internally consistent).

But it didn't work. The result MMX put on Ocelot makes Mario seem like a Link-beater. Like, Mario got 70%+ on Zelda. It's more likely Ocelot just dropped like crazy and doesn't beat The Boss easily anymore.

Hard to find stats that are still consistent from previous contests. At this point we might have better success just analysing the HIERARCHY and figuring out if Nintendo fans prefer Mario or Zelda.
LinkMarioSamus
12/06/18 1:53:48 PM
26
Maybe Samus and Tifa have some strange fanbase overlap that causes her to overperform or underperform against her at random?
---
"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
pjbasis
12/06/18 2:01:23 PM
27
Lopen posted...
Ness vs Luigi doesn't have to be 90-10 because Big Boss > Ness > Luigi inequality exists.


What? I mean that's what I'm saying then.

I'm saying it's ridiculous to think Luigi would get all of Ness's votes because Big Boss would surely get some too, and probably more than 10%
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Lopen
12/06/18 2:02:50 PM
28
pjbasis posted...
What? I mean that's what I'm saying then.

I'm saying it's ridiculous to think Luigi would get all of Ness's votes because Big Boss would surely get some too, and probably more than 10%


Big Boss gets none of Ness's votes from the Big Boss > Ness > Luigi inequality. He already has those.
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pjbasis
12/06/18 2:04:04 PM
29
CaptainOfCrush posted...
I've made this point over and over, but I think it's folly to think of multway polls in such a binary way.


I like trying to apply the transitive model though because we can see where it doesn't work.

I agree though. Change the question and the answer can be quite unexpected.
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pjbasis
12/06/18 2:09:05 PM
30
Hmmmm.....

I think I can see I made a mistake thinking about this.

Like Ness voters, even if they 90% go to Luigi when Ness is removed, obviously doesn't mean they would vote for Luigi in a direct match up. They'd still vote Ness.

LFF doesn't imply SFF.
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Lopen
12/06/18 2:15:08 PM
31
Let's break it down another way, dumb it down slightly for a hypothetical

Ness had 14% of the votes
Luigi had 43% of the votes
Big Boss had 43% of the votes.

Split inequalities as:

Big Boss > Luigi > Ness at 28%
Big Boss > Ness > Luigi at 15%
Ness > Big Boss > Luigi with 1%
Ness > Luigi > Big Boss with 13%
Luigi > Big Boss > Ness with with 17%
Luigi > Ness > Big Boss with 26%

That spread, and it's not one that necessarily fails the eye test to me (I feel like most people who would vote Ness over Big Boss are going to be Nintendo oriented in general), results in Luigi > Big Boss with 56% (13+43). It also results in Luigi > Ness with 71% (28+43) which isn't a red flag either.

And now I see you "get it" but whatever I'm not deleting this.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Nanis23
12/06/18 2:45:22 PM
32
>When Link vs Cloud is in 4 hours and there is zero hype

Goddamn it LAW, remember when this match was so hyped in the past?
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wololo
Then00bAvenger
12/06/18 2:50:32 PM
33
Well it's still interesting in the sense of seeing if Link will get his biggest win over Cloud ever

I would be surprised if he didn't but hey
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Safer_777
12/06/18 3:07:59 PM
34
Yeah. I expect Cloud to not even break 35% here, even though he will avoid a doubling. At least I think so.
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pjbasis
12/06/18 3:26:00 PM
35
Lopen posted...

And now I see you "get it" but whatever I'm not deleting this.


It's good diagramming for anyone interested.

I was thinking of doing that but I got lazy.
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abdou
12/06/18 3:52:47 PM
36
Then00bAvenger posted...
Well it's still interesting in the sense of seeing if Link will get his biggest win over Cloud ever

I would be surprised if he didn't but hey


yeah it's 100% going to be Cloud's worst performance Vs. Link. I am thinking a 60-40 is likely. Even with a weak Cloud, I just can't imagine him not getting to 40%.
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Omniscientless
12/06/18 3:55:11 PM
37
I refuse to believe Zelda is higher in the hierarchy than Samus or Mario, it's just unbelievable to me no matter what indirect projections might imply.
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red sox 777
12/06/18 4:02:32 PM
38
I am feeling a strong Cloud performance here. 45%. For the memory of what was.
---
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Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
The Owner of FF9
12/06/18 4:04:26 PM
39
Smash hype + most likely Smash 4 Cloud DLC promo art =

The eternal rivalry will live on

...

But Link still wins
---
Character Battle X
Current Score: 320/432 https://cdn.bulbagarden.net/upload/6/6c/EP039.png
Safer_777
12/06/18 4:06:09 PM
40
Which NN'ers are on the new Smash game?
---
So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing?
red sox 777
12/06/18 4:06:53 PM
41
Besides, Link doesn't want to beat everyone with over 60%. People will be clamoring for his removal from the bracket then. Better to let Cloud get close.
---
September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
Haste_2
12/06/18 4:07:12 PM
42
I don't know what to think on Cloud vs. Link. My gut tells me Cloud should get like 42% on Link. Yet past match results suggest maybe like 38% on Link. After all, I would expect Sephiroth to be closer to Cloud than Mario is to Link.

Sephiroth was worth 46% on Cloud in 2010. If you think Mario is around Samus' level, then you could say that Mario was worth 43% on Link in 2010.
---
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red sox 777
12/06/18 4:14:53 PM
43
If Mario/Bowser remains 58/42 as it was in the past, Crono gets 47% on Mario (in line with 2013 and 2005) and Cloud gets 53% on Mario. If Mario gets 43% on Link indirectly Cloud then gets 46%. That all matches up very well with the past, with Sephiroth taking a lone dive off the face of the planet.
---
September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
The Owner of FF9
12/06/18 4:15:52 PM
44
Safer_777 posted...
Which NN'ers are on the new Smash game?

All of them cept Sephy and Crono
---
Character Battle X
Current Score: 320/432 https://cdn.bulbagarden.net/upload/6/6c/EP039.png
Safer_777
12/06/18 4:17:10 PM
45
Damn! Have them as Assists or something! We need to petition Nintendo or som ething! They will care!
---
So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing?
_SecretSquirrel
12/06/18 4:18:31 PM
46
Poor Crono is going to be the only character left in the bracket not in Smash when it drops tonight.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2018 Guru Contest winner. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=40
The Owner of FF9
12/06/18 4:21:53 PM
47
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Poor Crono is going to be the only character left in the bracket not in Smash when it drops tonight.

Huh? Is Sephiroth a trophy or some other thing?
---
Character Battle X
Current Score: 320/432 https://cdn.bulbagarden.net/upload/6/6c/EP039.png
INTERWEBUSER
12/06/18 4:23:48 PM
48
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I'm surprised Snake was the pre-contest favorite against Samus despite Metal Gear being dead and Metroid having just been resurrected.

Admittedly yeah Zelda may just be that strong. Is Snake beating his 2006 result against Sonic? Then again even if he is, that probably says more about how far Sonic has fallen.

Wait wait wait so Snake can kill Sonic like this yet Big Boss can't blow out freaking Crash Bandicoot?

Metroid resurrected? You mean Metroid prime 4 thats only a logo at this point? Drones are so easy to please
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Safer_777
12/06/18 4:23:50 PM
49
He means he is eliminated already.
---
So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing?
The Owner of FF9
12/06/18 4:24:01 PM
50
oh duh

I'm tired
---
Character Battle X
Current Score: 320/432 https://cdn.bulbagarden.net/upload/6/6c/EP039.png
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