Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316

(+) Yeah! (+)

The Owner of FF9 posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

The Owner of FF9 posted...

I always think I'm going to either jump up or plummet from the leaderboard. Perfect day? "Maybe I'll shoot up!" Got one match wrong. "Oh God how bad will it be?"

I only move two spots at most either way.

The primary leaderboard probably isn't changing much until Mega Man vs. Crono. Everything until then is going to be stuff that everyone gets right (like Samus today), or everyone gets wrong (like Snake today, who most would have picked Sonic or even Zelda).

What about Mario vs Zelda? You think anyone in the top 15 had Snake winning that match?

Most people have Snake winning Losers and losing in Legends Finals.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I vote on my phone so I can see the big pic in the PC.

good idea especially for today ;)
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XIII at least have Snake winning that match then losing to Mario in the rematch.
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Solid_Mike86 posted...

Is there a way to keep the match pictures up on the homepage? It's like once i vote i never see them again.

Private/Incognito window should bring them back. Don't think there's another way.
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Moonroof posted...

The Owner of FF9 posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

The Owner of FF9 posted...

I always think I'm going to either jump up or plummet from the leaderboard. Perfect day? "Maybe I'll shoot up!" Got one match wrong. "Oh God how bad will it be?"

I only move two spots at most either way.

The primary leaderboard probably isn't changing much until Mega Man vs. Crono. Everything until then is going to be stuff that everyone gets right (like Samus today), or everyone gets wrong (like Snake today, who most would have picked Sonic or even Zelda).

What about Mario vs Zelda? You think anyone in the top 15 had Snake winning that match?

Most people have Snake winning Losers and losing in Legends Finals.

So beating Mario then losing to Link, only to beat Mario again?
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The_Ctes posted...

XIII at least have Snake winning that match then losing to Mario in the rematch.

what was the logic behind that?
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The Owner of FF9 posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

The Owner of FF9 posted...

I always think I'm going to either jump up or plummet from the leaderboard. Perfect day? "Maybe I'll shoot up!" Got one match wrong. "Oh God how bad will it be?"

I only move two spots at most either way.

The primary leaderboard probably isn't changing much until Mega Man vs. Crono. Everything until then is going to be stuff that everyone gets right (like Samus today), or everyone gets wrong (like Snake today, who most would have picked Sonic or even Zelda).

What about Mario vs Zelda? You think anyone in the top 15 had Snake winning that match?

I had Snake winning that match. Not checked where I am on the leaderboard recently but somewhere in the Top 20

Solid_Mike86 posted...

Is there a way to keep the match pictures up on the homepage? It's like once i vote i never see them again.

yeah i made a topic about this yesterday

Sign into your phone and vote or Use a different Browser on the computer. MAke sure you're signed in though.
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The Owner of FF9 posted...

The_Ctes posted...

XIII at least have Snake winning that match then losing to Mario in the rematch.

what was the logic behind that?

I think a lot of people picked a new winner in rematches.
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Amazing that the Pikachu fanbois couldn't get a rally when it really mattered.

Also, screw you Allen for ignoring a bunch of countries on the vote map. I voted from St Lucia today and have no way of knowing where this country stands!
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Glad the kid's mascot Pikachu is finally gone. Now to get the other Nintendo characters out...
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Are those two the same person posting on different accounts
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Amazing that the Pikachu fanbois couldn't get a rally when it really mattered.

Also, screw you Allen for ignoring a bunch of countries on the vote map. I voted from St Lucia today and have no way of knowing where this country stands!

I looked at the source code of these 2 pages to see if there were any votes from St Lucia:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/map?id=7374
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/map?id=7375

However, I couldn't find St Lucia's country code (LC) in the source code, so your votes must have been misidentified as a different country.
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Made the second chance leaderboard today - it will only be for one day though. The exact same amount of days I was on the leaderboard for the main bracket too. Least I can say I made it on for both.
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INTERWEBUSER posted...

Glad the kid's mascot Pikachu is finally gone. Now to get the other Nintendo characters out...

YESSS!!!! Pikachu got too mainstream
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Solid_Mike86 posted...

Is there a way to keep the match pictures up on the homepage? It's like once i vote i never see them again.

Right click -> new private window on the homepage link.
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Wow, Sonic looks very bad here. Not something I could've predicted considering Tails and Knuckles each had a good run in the bracket.
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This is what it takes for other boards to care about the contest
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I feel like Knux and Tails just had some lucky draws. Nathan Drake and Master Chief just aren't relevant on this site anymore and Zidane was probably just overrated while people thought too much of the Knux vs. Cecil match back in 2010.
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Well, Knux held up pretty well against Zero, too.
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I knew the whole time.

Tails also got blown up by Luigi to the point where it was likely SFF involved. It is possible that this is hiding Master Chief, Nathan Drake and Tails being worse than expected.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Tails also got blown up by Luigi to the point where it was likely SFF involved. It is possible that this is hiding Master Chief, Nathan Drake and Tails being worse than expected.

Or Luigi is just that strong and there was little to no SFF. (not that i have any idea what im talking about)
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Why do people think Sonic look bad here? He's projected to get about 57% on Aeris (who has little reason to decline), which is close to what 2010 xstats say. I think he looks pretty constant.
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Yeah, Sonic is fine. Snake has been out of his league for some time. It's just that Zelda now is, too.
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I think some people just wanted to believe Zelda didn't beat the tar out of Sonic (and Snake beating up Auron) because she was way way stronger than him.

...As it turns out, she's way way stronger than him.
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Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 2

Pikachu vs. Mega Man
Registered Vote Result:
Pikachu - 4482 (50.25%)
Mega Man - 4437 (49.75%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Pikachu - 4845 (47.72%)
Mega Man - 5308 (52.28%)

Crono vs. Bowser
Registered Vote Result:
Crono - 4822 (54.06%)
Bowser - 4098 (45.94%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Crono - 5683 (55.96%)
Bowser - 4472 (44.04%)

In the first match, Pikachu got 50.57% in the first match from registered users, but this decreased to 50.25% in the rematch. For anonymous users, it's a different story completely due to the rally in the first match which favored Pikachu. Anonymous users supported Mega Man with only 50.71% in the first match, but this went up to 52.28% in the rematch. It's believed the first rallies started shortly after 9:00 AM (first for Mega Man, and then Pikachu later on). Based on the 9:00 AM results in the first match, Mega Man currently had 51.92% with registered users, which isn't too far off from what Mega Man got in the rematch with the anonymous users.

Crono largely did similar with both registered and anonymous users. In the first match, Crono got 54.28% with registered users, and this only decreased to 54.06% in the rematch. For anonymous users, it was nearly identical - 55.94% in the first match, 55.96% in the rematch.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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Even if Luigi didn't SFF Tails, that match probably places Tails around the fodder-line. Only 11% of gurus had Tails winning his fourpack, but most here surely knew before this contest not to high expectations for Chief or Drake, so the popular opinion must have been Tails wasn't going to win because he sucked too. So Tails being around the fodder-line can't be too bad compared to where most people thought he was.

I think Tails probably was SFFed a little though? Just eyeballing it, Bomberman's probably projected to get a pretty similar number on Bowser to the one Tails got on Luigi, likely suggesting they're close? Yet we saw Tails totally blow up Bomberman in 2013: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5200-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-ezio-vs-tails-vs

As for Sonic, Geralt's weird eightpack and crazy Zelda boosts and Snake/Auron sprites make a lot of the characters he can be judged against this year kind of hard to trust but I maintain for now that he looks pretty bad when extrapolated against Sub-Zero, and I trust Subby more than almost anyone else to stay relatively stable.
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How does Sonic look bad when extrapolated against Sub-Zero? He gets 60% on Sub-Zero which is almost exactly what 2010 xstats say. You have to use 2013 xstats, but I don't trust it at all since Sonic was 6th in the xstats (and heavily inflated with 41.30 Base Link which is absurdly high) because threeways are super inaccurate.
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Mega Man 50.00%
Pikachu 49.33%
Yoshi 44.59%
Zero 42.86%
Ganondorf 39.35%
Vivi 37.81%
Knuckles the Echidna 37.59%
Kratos 36.10%
Dante 34.31%
Wario 34.07%
Donkey Kong 34.04%
Scorpion 33.14%
Zidane Tribal 32.48%
Chun-Li 32.33%
Leon Kennedy 30.18%
Tidus 29.32%
Spyro the Dragon 28.35%
Master Hand 26.60%
Velvet Crowe 26.19%
Monika 24.14%
Lightning 23.59%
Shantae 22.95%
Noctis Lucis Caelum 22.58%
Primrose 22.13%
James Sunderland 20.41%
Cuphead 19.50%
John Marston 19.37%
Yu Narukami 18.99%
Dragonborn 18.90%
Aya Brea 18.57%
Neku Sakuraba 16.84%
Victor Sullivan 15.02%
Chloe Price 12.18%
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I'm not really using Sonic's x-stat numbers at all! His 2010 number might as well be out of thin air since he got SFFed, though I'll note that only outperforming Luigi by 1% against Link was PROBABLY a pretty terrible showing, and then yeah, he faced nobody remotely reliable in 2013 before running into Mewtwo.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2546-time-division-round-2-auron-vs-sub-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3273-division-8-round-1-auron-marcus-rydia-sub-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5230-character-battle-ix-division-2-round-2-the-boss-vs-sub-zero

~60% on Sub-Zero is just not the kind of performance you probably want to see out of even a bottom tier Noble Niner. If that's what 2010 stats project Sonic to get and you want to go with that, then I'm open to Sonic having just been bad that year too!
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I suppose saying Sonic's doing good or bad is dependent on expectation. His 2010 performance was seen as good for the most part, since people were seriously afraid that he'll repeat his fourway results and start dropping matches to the Ganondorfs and the Kirbys, but he decisively proved that he's still above them. I think as long as Sonic can mention this level, it'll be a good showing from him.
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AxemRedRanger posted...

Even if Luigi didn't SFF Tails, that match probably places Tails around the fodder-line. Only 11% of gurus had Tails winning his fourpack, but most here surely knew before this contest not to high expectations for Chief or Drake, so the popular opinion must have been Tails wasn't going to win because he sucked too. So Tails being around the fodder-line can't be too bad compared to where most people thought he was.

I would guess that most people thought Tails was around the fodder line before the contest, actually. If you don't think Luigi SFF'd him, that's where he currently is. On the other hand, Tails is comfortably ahead of the fodder line if you do think he was the victim of SFF there.

Tails is a bit better than the fodder line. He got 40% against Kratos in 2010, that's back when Kratos had strength.

Of course that likely only bumps him to around the low 30s against Luigi so it isn't a huge adjustment.
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Came back from work, checked the results. This is what I have to say.

1st match=Snake as expected.
2nd match=I think I have seen this match before or something?
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Also this Tifa pic is amazing. FF 7 remake please!
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I have Snake beating Samus on the next round. Is this right or wrong?
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Safer_777 posted...

I have Snake beating Samus on the next round. Is this right or wrong?

I feel like this match is closely linked to Mario vs Zelda.

Are Mario and Samus a tier above Zelda and Snake, or are they close?

I guess we s hall see then. Thanks.
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Samus should be the favorite but Snake has a shot. If he can shoot for 58% on Sonic like his match against Auron projects, then as long as Sonic is still above Luigi, the match should be close.

The one concern is the theory that Snake collapses against real Nintendo characters (eg Nintendo fans would vote Snake because of Smash over non-Nintendo characters, but would drop him to support one of their own like Samus or Mario), which was first brought up during the first Snake vs Samus match, where it looked like Snake underperformed.
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Wait wait wait Snake vs. Samus is a debate even AFTER Snake lost to Zelda?
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Samus is the heavy favorite (she was an underdog before the contest), but I still think it's premature to call it a 100% guarantee. Snake lost against Zelda, but she's received one of the biggest boosts ever and has shown her insane strength in every single match. Losing a 50/50 to Zelda, as Snake did, is shockingly no guarantee that he still can't go toe-to-toe with any Noble 9er apart from Link.
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The problem with Zelda is that she is clearly massively boosted yet her end result is likely tainted by SFF and we have no idea how much.

So it's hard for us to say if Zelda is as strong as Samus or not. I'm sure she loses to Samus straight up but I'm sure there's SFF there too.

That will mean that I will get kicked out of the leaderboard. Well it was fun while it lasted.
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Well actually I guess we do have a kind of indirect way of measuring Samus/Zelda.

You could run the xstats to see what it says Tifa does to Aerith if Zelda = Samus. Then judge it from there as to whether it sounds plausible

Well, the easiest way of measuring Zelda's strength is through Snake/Samus
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Wait wait wait Snake vs. Samus is a debate even AFTER Snake lost to Zelda?

Why are you assuming Zelda is weak?

There's a good likelihood she goes up against Mario and Samus directly, and if she loses to both, I'd say at that point the only question mark is Cloud. She loses to Link/Mario/Samus and beats everyone else (though Snake can give her a fight).
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Frauds.
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