Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9

(+) Yeah! (+)

that matchup will always be interesting regardless of how much Link wins by.
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I'd be more surprised by Cloud keeping Link under 55 than I would be Link breaking 60 after seeing how FF7's top non-Cloud have done against Samus/Mario.
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(Crono vs. Mario is the same - Mario wins now and forevermore but I'd still be game to see it happen)
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Well, the one thing that might be different about Link/Cloud now is that Link might actually be the more anti-voted character of the two these days.
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Leon hit me up.

Let's say Cloud gets 47% on Ol' Linky.

What does Sephiroth need on Bowser for Samus = Link?
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....Why do I feel like I've opened Pandora's Box?
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Slow day, so random side thought time:

Is Tifa>Sephiroth one of the most nonsensical results we've had in years? There's been shockers but most of them are explainable by rallies, LFF, shifting character strength, ect. With Tifa>Sephiroth it's less about explaining it and more about rationalizing it. It goes against all standards of GameFAQs common sense. Samus>Mario would top it but that's going to fall short.
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Zelda to the top 5 is up there for me.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Is Tifa>Sephiroth one of the most nonsensical results we've had in years?

Bowser/Kirby?
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Leon hit me up.

Let's say Cloud gets 47% on Ol' Linky.

What does Sephiroth need on Bowser for Samus = Link?

Depends on which matches you want to use, but I'll give Samus the most favorable one (the Bowser derived from Cloud/Alucard and Bowser/Alucard and the Seph derived through Samus/Tifa):

If Samus = Link, Sephy gets 50.16% on Bowser.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Samus>Mario would top it but that's going to fall short.

Samus > Mario would make a lot of sense...
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LeonhartFour posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Leon hit me up.

Let's say Cloud gets 47% on Ol' Linky.

What does Sephiroth need on Bowser for Samus = Link?

Depends on which matches you want to use, but I'll give Samus the most favorable one (the Bowser derived from the direct match between Cloud/Crono and the Seph derived through Samus/Tifa):

If Samus = Link, Sephy gets 50.16% on Bowser.

What's the least favorable Samus look like, for argument's sake? (also to give me a comical range to work with)
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

What's the least favorable Samus look like, for argument's sake?

Sephiroth gets 54.96% on Bowser

which means Crono > Sephiroth is on the table too...!
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I know theres been some talk about it in the stats topic and while my view is not nearly as cynical as some have put forward, the women this year truly have looked better across the board. Zelda, Samus, Tifa, 2B, Chun Li - even one-round winners like Velvet, Aya and Terra - I think theres something to be said for that.
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Zelda's run is nuts but after Breath of the Wild it's...possible? If she beats Mario I'll probably think differently.

Bowser>Kirby is, well, maybe Kirby wasn't as good as we thought or something. Also Hierarchy. Still seems less out there than Sephiroth cleanly losing to someone from his own game that he used to be like three steps above.
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Well yeah, we've rarely seen a fall from grace like Sephiroth's, and he's still stronger than 90-95% of the characters in the contest, which is a testament to how strong he truly used to be.
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Based on the current results at 10:35 PM, Snake should have gotten 60.25% on Auron based on Sonic/Snake and Sonic/Auron. So it appears that Snake overperformed by about 1% on Auron, meaning Auron's sprite hurt him more than Snake's sprite.
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The Mana Sword posted...

I know theres been some talk about it in the stats topic and while my view is not nearly as cynical as some have put forward, the women this year truly have looked better across the board. Zelda, Samus, Tifa, 2B, Chun Li - even one-round winners like Velvet, Aya and Terra - I think theres something to be said for that.

There was one post someone made earlier (forget who it was) that summarized things nicely: female characters are overall more appreciated than they used to be. I think that's true of gaming in general, and not just GameFAQs. Whatever way you decide to spin that is your call (but you probably shouldn't spin it like some people are trying to).
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I wouldn't buy that at all. not on this website with this resistant crowd, anyway.
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I realize this is a terrible idea, but look at these polls:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3636-when-creating-a-custom-game-character-which-gender-do-you
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6262-when-creating-a-custom-game-character-which-gender-do-you

Maybe people just...like women in their vidya games more now?
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transience posted...

I wouldn't buy that at all. not on this website with this resistant crowd, anyway.

It could partly be that the site's getting older too. Back when they were teenagers, girls were gross, but now that's not as much the case anymore.
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Crew Predictions: 120/138

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 117
transience: 116
Kleenex: 112
Leonhart: 111
Guest: 108

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Zelda, MetalmindStats gets the point for Mario, spooky96 gets the point for Mega Man, and Leonhart gets the point for Crono.

transience: 34
Guest: 33 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (3), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf (2), MetalmindStats (2))
Kleenex: 30
Monika: 22
Leonhart: 20
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I feel like Moltar and I will go the same way on every match going forward with the possible exception of Crono/Mega Man

that could be the one that decides if he wins
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boy I really blew that accuracy challenge

my reluctance to use decimal places definitely cost me a few points
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Hot runback X-Stats

Mega Man 50.00%
Pikachu 49.33%
Yoshi 44.59%
Zero 42.86%
Ganondorf 39.35%
Vivi 37.81%
Knuckles the Echidna 37.59%
Kratos 36.10%
Dante 34.31%
Wario 34.07%
Donkey Kong 34.04%
Scorpion 33.14%
Zidane Tribal 32.48%
Chun-Li 32.33%
Leon Kennedy 30.18%
Tidus 29.32%
Spyro the Dragon 28.35%
Master Hand 26.60%
Velvet Crowe 26.19%
Monika 24.14%
Lightning 23.59%
Shantae 22.95%
Noctis Lucis Caelum 22.58%
Primrose 22.13%
James Sunderland 20.41%
Cuphead 19.50%
John Marston 19.37%
Yu Narukami 18.99%
Dragonborn 18.90%
Aya Brea 18.57%
Neku Sakuraba 16.84%
Victor Sullivan 15.02%
Chloe Price 12.18%
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oh man I just realized I got Crono/Bowser exactly

that should be worth like 10 accuracy points imhotbqh
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Mac Arrowny posted...

transience posted...

I wouldn't buy that at all. not on this website with this resistant crowd, anyway.

It could partly be that the site's getting older too. Back when they were teenagers, girls were gross, but now that's not as much the case anymore.

I think it's a mix of us getting older and pop culture generally being more used to female characters in lead roles, imo.

but youre talking about Zelda and Tifa and Chun Li. theyre not exactly in lead roles. I guess Terra kind of is? I would believe that if we actually had strong women characters do well here. we have Bayonetta and maybe 2B? ehh.
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"Maybe 2B"? She might be the strongest 21th century character in the bracket. And Bayonetta did super well too. Never mind Samus who could be the #2 character in the site.

Zelda doesn't have a lead role per se, but people like her because she got a lot of character development... which is also a modern trend.

I don't want to make this a debate about feminism btw... just describing what seems to be a trend. You give a girl more dialogue and things to do and suddenly she is more popular. While before, characters like Peach and Zelda existed solely to be saved by the hero.

One thing that caught my attention is that I used to hear the term SexistFAQs describing some match results, and that just vanished. It's all about TJF and Waifufactor and stuff now.

Tifa beating Seph feels like two sides of the same coin. We grew up, so edgy badasses like Seph are not that appealing anymore. On the other hand, characters who just have good story or personality like I guess Tifa does (never played the game) appeal more, because we are looking for different things now.

(That, and TJF/Waifu factor too, ofc)

Actually only TFJ/Waifu factor.
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I dunno I have a hard time believing we are more horny now than we were as teenagers.

But it is true. Look at all the fan art, the hentai and the waifu/husbando topics/sites/art. Seriously.
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I can't say for everyone, but I'm much hornier now than a few years ago when I was a teenager

Safer_777 posted...

But it is true. Look at all the fan art, the hentai and the waifu/husbando topics/sites/art. Seriously.

There's been as much Tifa hentai and fanart as you can take for as long as this website has been around. Sephiroth just fell out of fashion.
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Legends Bracket: Round 3 Link vs. Cloud Strife

Monikas Analysis

Link
Legends Round 1 - 79.64% vs. Ganondorf
Legends Round 2 - 68.41% vs. Pikachu

Cloud
Legends Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Alucard
Legends Round 2 - 56.73% vs. Crono

Weve seen this match enough to know how it plays out by now without explaining why it will in 10,000 words. There was a time way back when these two were close in strength, but since 2004, Link has been the top dog.

Now, the gap should be larger than ever because Link is still very relevant. Hes coming off of Breath of the Wild, plus the site is skewing towards Nintendo with Smash coming out. Cloud doesnt seem to be the #2 guy and more like a mid-Noble Nine character. Maybe since its Link/Cloud, itll be close like it always has been. The times have changed though.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: I dont have any rivals! I just get rid of anyone that opposes me, ahaha! Gosh, I sounded like a real villain there!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Link 57%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

By my math, this is the 13th Link vs. Cloud matchup in contest history. 14 if you include that stupid rivalry rumble but fortunately no one does. That contest sucked bad.

Cloud won the first matchup and Link is 11-0 since. This honestly hasn't been a 'rivalry' since, oh, 2007 or so. Then again, the two haven't really matched up since 2010 since Cloud lost to a random Pokemon during the great weirdness of 2013. Sometimes crazy contest results make them less memorable because I have absolutely no memory of that happening. There was a weird result every other day towards the end of that goofy contest. Draven didn't kill that contest - Pokemon killing off legends left and right did. I don't mind a good Pokemon result but it can't be every match!

Anyway, back to Link and Cloud. There's really only two ways that Link drops this. One is if people are just so sick of Link winning that they mass vote for Cloud, the only guy who's ever truly been able to stand up to the king. Dravens and L-Blocks don't count. The only true contest loss Link ever had was Cloud, and it was back in Bush's first term.

The other is if an absolutely monster FF7 remake trailer drops during tonight's Game Awards. I honestly don't even think that would move the needle enough - there's just too much of a gap. You would need a Cloud vs. Sephiroth battle in the Nibelheim fire to even get close. Oh, and I guess Smash 5 technically comes out at the end of this match too. Yeah, you can cross that one off. They'll hide FF7R away until KH3 is out so that fans pay attention to that game. (The actual game to watch out for there is Metroid Prime 4 as Samus's final weapon vs. Mario.)

Cloud may have his best start ever tonight as anti-Link sentiment is strong with the early vote this year. It might even counteract Cloud's decades-long awful opening minutes! I kinda feel like Crono and Mega Man is a tossup, while Link put 68% on Pikachu and Cloud put 56% on Crono. There could be some Nintendo overlap there with Pikachu but it would have to be really significant for Cloud to get within a couple of percentage points. I'll give Cloud the benefit of the doubt of keeping it close because it's the classic Link vs. Cloud matchup, but this probably isn't ever in doubt. I think people feel like Cloud is closer to the #5 character right now than #1.

transience's prediction: Link with 56.61%

Leonharts Analysis

There have only been two Character Battles where we havent seen Link vs. Cloud in some form: 2002 and 2013. You know the drill at this point. The gap between the two is probably the biggest its been since the first contest. The only possible difference is that Link might actually be the more anti-voted character of the two at this point. As such, I wouldnt be surprised if Cloud holds up better than most people expect, or Link might just blow him out of the water like how OoT nearly 60/40d FFVII in that bonus poll in 2015. Unfortunately, he cant actually win here, but I am intrigued to see what the final margin looks like.

Leonharts Vote: Cloud Strife

Leonharts Prediction: Link with 54.54%
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Kleenexs Analysis

I cant shake the feeling Ive seen this match before. Oh, thats right, now I remember.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1365-tournament-semifinal-link-vs-cloud-strife

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1780-tournament-final-link-vs-cloud-strife

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2129-tournament-of-champions-semifinal-link-vs-cloud-strife

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2566-battle-royale-final

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3856-contest-final-link-vs-cloud-strife

Not even counting the times they clashed in the 4-way contests. This match has gotten progressively worse for Cloud each time, minus a very minor upswing in 2010, and I dont see that trend reversing. Link has had Clouds number ever since that first match, and he still does. The only question about the match today is if well see these two again in the grand finals. Mario and Samus both looked very good, and they have a good shot at upsetting Cloud in the losers bracket if he doesnt show up today. If he can keep this around the usual 46%-47%, I think hes still the favorite to make it to the finals to lose to Link again, but if he start pushing things close to 40%, then its going to be a bad time for him once he runs into the other Nintendo dudes.

Kleenexs Prediction: Link with 55%

Crew Consensus: Link beats Cloud.again
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how did Guest not write up Link vs. Cloud of all matches
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I can't see Cloud breaking 45% here. I feel like there has to be a solid gap (like 55-45) between Link and Samus/Mario, and then I look at 59% on Sephiroth vs. 60% on Alucard and while Alucard actually being close to Sephiroth would be awesome, that big of a Sephiroth drop should logically hurt Cloud too, right?

The only thing I have for 'oh Cloud will do okay' is it being Cloud, and Tifa/Sephiroth showed that 'being X character' isn't nearly enough. Hell, FREAKING MARIO isn't enough to bury Samus to the point where a rematch post-Smash Ultimate and possibly a Prime 4 trailer can't have the Samus win be entertained.
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Link should definitely go close to 60 on Cloud but there's just something about the Link/Cloud matchup that makes me pause before going that high.
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I mean if Guest doesn't show up you can just have what I posted be Guest write-up I guess and go with Link with 59%.
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Guest is really slacking this year.
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Lopen's unofficial analysis x1

Cool one a day. Does that mean I'm going to start putting effort in? Probably not.

Theory is that Link has boosted. Theory is also that Cloud may have deboosted. Practice we don't really know either of those yet. Cloud's number on Crono wasn't bad, and Alucard has looked good all contest. Ganondorf and Pika are SFF matches so ??? I have my doubts Link will hang super high numbers on non-Nintendo people. Ganondorf holding his own vs the 2004 match makes me think he's getting anti-voted in a non negligible way this year and Pikachu... well, who knows. Anyway yeah this match has almost always been 54-46 or closer so I'm just gonna go around that despite the apparent Seph drop and Zelda rise.

Link with 54.95%
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Well guest better hope the real guest shows up because apparently I sandwiched guest pretty hard there.
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transience posted...

Link should definitely go close to 60 on Cloud but there's just something about the Link/Cloud matchup that makes me pause before going that high.

yeah, same

I'll believe Link can hit 58%+ on cloud when I see it. Link's had all the reasons to boost way ahead of Cloud in the past, yet Cloud still managed to keep Link under 55%
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transience posted...

Link should definitely go close to 60 on Cloud but there's just something about the Link/Cloud matchup that makes me pause before going that high.

Some of us thought Link would aim for mid to high 50s back in 2010 based on Cloud looking bad throughout the contest, but then Cloud manages to hold Link under 54% in the final.
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LusterSoldier posted...

transience posted...

Link should definitely go close to 60 on Cloud but there's just something about the Link/Cloud matchup that makes me pause before going that high.

Some of us thought Link would aim for mid to high 50s back in 2010 based on Cloud looking bad throughout the contest, but then Cloud manages to hold Link under 54% in the final.

That something was antivotes. People didn't want Link to win yet again.

Last few days were busy for me. Sorry for the late showing, guys. Here's a quick write-up;

I think we can all agree Link's easily winning this match. He has beaten his performances on Cloud in each successive match they have had together. I don't think he'll goes as far as beat his 2011 performance (I blame that on bad contest), but it'll be between that and 2010. If he does, that really says a lot about the Square decline, and for good reason. That company stopped been on the downswing since the two Kingdom Hearts titles.

I'm actually don't think Cloud even beats Mario and Samus anymore, so it'll be interesting to see how he performs in the losers bracket.

Winner - Link - 56.73% (I just used my oracle here http://www.oraclechallenge.com/index.php?file=predictions&id=534)

EDIT: Should be "That company has been on the downswing..." and it should be "I" instead of "I'm" in the second paragraph.
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Link looked bad throughout the 2010 contest until he hit Nintendo-based competition. Then people wanted to use clear SFF matches to deny that Link was closer to the field in 2010 than he had been before.
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