Board 8 > * 2018 CBX Guru Contest - Results, Discussions and Eliminations, Part One *

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NowItsAngeTime
11/02/18 2:26:03 PM
#102:


demphra successfully KILLED
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Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png
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MetalmindStats
11/02/18 10:25:11 PM
#103:


Ngamer64 posted...
Okay I've mailed out the official copy of all this year's brackets.

@scaryice
@MetalmindStats

Looked like you dudes might be interested in elims as well? Send a message to ngamer at the electronic mail service of google and I'll shoot over another couple copies.


Hey, Ngamer! I appreciate the offer, but I don't really have time to work on eliminations.
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Polycosm
11/03/18 1:49:03 AM
#104:


I'm surprised at how few gurus gave K. Rool a shot.

(I really blew it, picking Ellie though; it's my worst Round 1 pick by far and it's going to cancel my K. Rool gamble if he manages to hang on).
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BKSheikah owned me so thoroughly in the 2017 guru contest, I'd swear he used the Lens of Truth to pick his bracket. (thengamer.com/guru)
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_SecretSquirrel
11/03/18 1:52:49 AM
#105:


Polycosm posted...
I'm surprised at how few gurus gave K. Rool a shot.

(I really blew it, picking Ellie though; it's my worst Round 1 pick by far and it's going to cancel my K. Rool gamble if he manages to hang on).

I'm among his nominators thinking he could damage with the right setup, but I would have never thought he'd have a chance at Commander Shephard.
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Ngamer64
11/03/18 5:59:08 PM
#106:


Didn't quite work out but still, props to the Almost Genius Crew that believed in The King!

MikeTavish
Polycosm
Hbthebattle
MMXcalibur
jcgamer

While we're at it, let's list the DK > Leon Believers, just in case we have to give them a hearty congrats tomorrow.

PrinceKaro
SgtSphynx
NicktheRPGLord
Tirofog
SuperNiceDog
MMXcalibur
Paratroopa
DomaDragoon
jcgamer


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RoseChevalier
11/03/18 6:21:39 PM
#107:


Oh geez tag
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I'm Rose Coldsteel, from Legend of Coldsteel
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fpce666
11/03/18 6:56:27 PM
#108:


Any eliminations soon?
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jcgamer107
11/03/18 10:15:08 PM
#109:


fpce666 posted...
Any eliminations soon?

I've gotta be close
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SeabassDebeste BK_Sheikah00 Grand_Kirby WAY TO GO THERE BOIYS, GOOD GAMEFAQS BOYS
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NewerShadow
11/04/18 12:13:09 AM
#110:


Honestly, I'd be surprised if we got any eliminations before the end of round 2. Each poll is still only 2 points out of 700 possible, and the loser's bracket means that you technically have a lot of potential to gain points where others lose them, if someone from the JV bracket wins their match and knocks their opponent into losers. That goes double if you picked an upset early in the legends bracket.

For perspective, the closest pairs of brackets that I see right now are t_kizzle/Joelypoely, LordoftheMorons/davidponte, and Camden/Bane_of_Despair, all with under 30 points of difference overall. However, based on where they differ, I'm not even sure if they'll resolve before the end of round 3.
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Oxbridge
11/04/18 3:51:33 AM
#111:


In the 64 round 1 matches, we've had 1854497 votes, leading to an expected tiebreaker of 4346477. Here's an update to the top 10 tiebreakers from last week:

1. alblito (up 5)
2. Natwaf_akidna (down 1)
3. Z1mZum (down 1)
4. Leon (up 4)
5. NFUN (down 2)
6. SuorGenoveffa (up 4)
7. ZenOfThunder (up 5)
8. MoogleKupo (down 4)
9. BK_Sheikah00 (up 4)
10. CasanovaZelos (up 4)
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Congratulations to BKSheikah, the Guru champion for the 2017 Best Year in Gaming contest.
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tennisboy213
11/04/18 6:51:10 AM
#112:


I don't believe the tiebreaker takes into account the user bonus. The total amount of votes without the user bonus is around 2/3 of that total.
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Cavedweller2000
11/04/18 7:33:07 AM
#113:


If that's the case you're looking at about 2.9 mil
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Wreath
11/04/18 8:17:42 AM
#114:


Ngamer64 posted...
Didn't quite work out but still, props to the Almost Genius Crew that believed in The King!

MikeTavish
Polycosm
Hbthebattle
MMXcalibur
jcgamer

While we're at it, let's list the DK > Leon Believers, just in case we have to give them a hearty congrats tomorrow.

PrinceKaro
SgtSphynx
NicktheRPGLord
Tirofog
SuperNiceDog
MMXcalibur
Paratroopa
DomaDragoon
jcgamer



Congrats guys ! Good upset pick
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jcgamer107
11/04/18 12:43:39 PM
#115:


I banked hard on a Smash Bros boost, which has yielded decent results
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SeabassDebeste BK_Sheikah00 Grand_Kirby WAY TO GO THERE BOIYS, GOOD GAMEFAQS BOYS
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NewerShadow
11/04/18 10:44:58 PM
#116:


Tomorrow in unlikely eliminations:
LordoftheMorons is eliminated by davidponte if Crash > Big Boss and Alucard > Yuna.
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davidponte
11/04/18 10:47:40 PM
#117:


Considering I have Big Boss winning tomorrow, I don't think I even want that to happen
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haloiscoolisbak
11/05/18 12:23:59 AM
#118:


i'm now outright 1st. fuck yeah
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Started from the bottom now we here
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pjbasis
11/05/18 8:22:50 AM
#119:


Team Rocket Elite posted...
https://www.smashbros.com/wiiu-3ds/us/images/character/cloud/illust.jpg


It's far off but we really need this for the match pic

(assuming Crono doesn't ruin it)
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ZeldaTPLink
11/06/18 8:18:55 AM
#120:


So Red isn't killing any brackets?
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NewerShadow
11/06/18 8:38:25 AM
#121:


ZeldaTPLink posted...
So Red isn't killing any brackets?

Nope, too many other differences between brackets.

No eliminations possible from any Division 4 results either.
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hombad46
11/06/18 8:43:35 AM
#122:


NewerShadow posted...
ZeldaTPLink posted...
So Red isn't killing any brackets?

Nope, too many other differences between brackets.

No eliminations possible from any Division 4 results either.

Wow, really? I thought I took Sora far enough that it'd at least kill me for him to lose here
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Big Bob
11/06/18 6:53:10 PM
#123:


Yeah, I had Sora going far. I'm surprised today didn't knock me off.
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NowItsAngeTime
11/06/18 6:55:35 PM
#124:


People need to remember that with the Losers and Legends Bracket giving 8 points each (with about 30 matches it's around 240 points) there's so many points on the line there that taking someone out of a regular Division is just a mere 16 points is not much at all (a few more if you took them to win a match or 2 in Legends and/or Losers.

So imo, don't expect many Eliminations until like a round or 2 during the Losers Bracket
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Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png
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SuperNiceDog
11/06/18 6:56:16 PM
#125:


Wreath posted...
Ngamer64 posted...
Didn't quite work out but still, props to the Almost Genius Crew that believed in The King!

MikeTavish
Polycosm
Hbthebattle
MMXcalibur
jcgamer

While we're at it, let's list the DK > Leon Believers, just in case we have to give them a hearty congrats tomorrow.

PrinceKaro
SgtSphynx
NicktheRPGLord
Tirofog
SuperNiceDog
MMXcalibur
Paratroopa
DomaDragoon
jcgamer



Congrats guys ! Good upset pick


YAY!!!!!!

grats to the legend MMX calibur too I LOVED your 2002 site. You had one dedicated to the contest and I used to make better picks in the 2002/03 contests when I was 13 years old.
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handsomeboy2012
11/06/18 11:24:16 PM
#126:


Has the guru been updated yet? It only got to Pikachu for me.
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NowItsAngeTime
11/07/18 12:31:18 AM
#127:


handsomeboy2012 posted...
Has the guru been updated yet? It only got to Pikachu for me.


updated now
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Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png
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NewerShadow
11/07/18 2:11:00 AM
#128:


Assuming Phoenix Wright holds on, eliminations tomorrow should be quiet. If Squall/Zelda both win, no one is eliminated.

My checker is throwing out some data that looks odd for some scenarios where Zelda or Squall loses, but I don't think either of those are happening, so I'm not going to stay up any later tonight trying to fix it. For curiosity's sake, it thinks that both The Boss + Fox winning causes RoseChevalier to be eliminated by BetrayedTangy, and Garrus + Captain Toad means Wigs is eliminated by AxemRedRanger.
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firefdr
11/07/18 3:30:15 AM
#129:


am I dead?
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Polycosm
11/07/18 6:11:59 PM
#130:


I'm perplexed as to how my bracket could survive this set of matches. I took Charizard to the Finals Division. Also took Red though... so maybe that's the reason. I don't see any other possible path to victory.
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BKSheikah owned me so thoroughly in the 2017 guru contest, I'd swear he used the Lens of Truth to pick his bracket. (thengamer.com/guru)
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ZeldaTPLink
11/07/18 6:24:36 PM
#131:


Polycosm posted...
I'm perplexed as to how my bracket could survive this set of matches. I took Charizard to the Finals Division. Also took Red though... so maybe that's the reason. I don't see any other possible path to victory.


You are giving too much importance to a character who is worth less than 2 results from the Loser's Bracket.
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ZeldaTPLink
11/07/18 6:25:31 PM
#132:


Heck if you have Zard losing in the div. dinals then it's just 6 points.
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Polycosm
11/07/18 6:27:26 PM
#133:


ZeldaTPLink posted...
Polycosm posted...
I'm perplexed as to how my bracket could survive this set of matches. I took Charizard to the Finals Division. Also took Red though... so maybe that's the reason. I don't see any other possible path to victory.

You are giving too much importance to a character who is worth less than 2 results from the Loser's Bracket.

Hmm... yes, that's an excellent point.
---
BKSheikah owned me so thoroughly in the 2017 guru contest, I'd swear he used the Lens of Truth to pick his bracket. (thengamer.com/guru)
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ZeldaTPLink
11/07/18 6:28:26 PM
#134:


Polycosm posted...
ZeldaTPLink posted...
Polycosm posted...
I'm perplexed as to how my bracket could survive this set of matches. I took Charizard to the Finals Division. Also took Red though... so maybe that's the reason. I don't see any other possible path to victory.

You are giving too much importance to a character who is worth less than 2 results from the Loser's Bracket.

Hmm... yes, that's an excellent point.


Pretty much. Normally we'd be hyaving lots of elims now but the Legends/Losers are worth a gazillion points, and have a lot of variance since Losers is different for everyone.
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Natwaf_akidna
11/07/18 7:17:34 PM
#135:


How am I still alive
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LusterSoldier
11/07/18 7:23:41 PM
#136:


Oxbridge posted...
In the 64 round 1 matches, we've had 1854497 votes, leading to an expected tiebreaker of 4346477. Here's an update to the top 10 tiebreakers from last week:


In round 1 alone, we've received a total of 1249701 raw votes. That comes out to an average of about 19527 per match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
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Advokaiser
11/07/18 8:26:25 PM
#137:


LusterSoldier posted...
In round 1 alone, we've received a total of 1249701 raw votes. That comes out to an average of about 19527 per match.


That doesn't sound bad, considering BYIG's votals.
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jcgamer107
11/07/18 9:27:34 PM
#138:


I'm in the 91st percentile for the whole site, and 31st percentile in Guru. lol you guys are too good.
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SeabassDebeste BK_Sheikah00 Grand_Kirby WAY TO GO THERE BOIYS, GOOD GAMEFAQS BOYS
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LusterSoldier
11/07/18 9:31:12 PM
#139:


Advokaiser posted...
LusterSoldier posted...
In round 1 alone, we've received a total of 1249701 raw votes. That comes out to an average of about 19527 per match.


That doesn't sound bad, considering BYIG's votals.


Especially considering our average vote totals on the regular polls have dropped even more since BYIG ended.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
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NewerShadow
11/07/18 10:37:41 PM
#140:


No eliminations for division 6, round 2. Still too many possibilities.
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Ngamer64
11/08/18 8:24:28 PM
#141:


Too early to say anything official... but regardless, props to our 8 Belmont Believers, heck of a bold and brilliant choice no matter where this percentage ends up!

PrinceKaro
SecretSquirrel
DpObliVion
Turnsniper
charmander
paulg
Lockes Ragnarok
jcgamer

And while we're at it these 10 Pac-Men are looking pretty solid today as well.

Big Bob
NicktheRPGLord
DrFootball
Ytterbicide
Lockes Ragnarok
Mac Arrowny
MMXcalibur
chocoboslayer
Paratroopa
CybrMonkey

(not to win, but he was way underrated this year so it was worth a shot)


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
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NowItsAngeTime
11/08/18 8:32:04 PM
#142:


I dont think Pac-Man is fodder line anymore. Especially with Smash and the forced 4 matches a day thing
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ISFJ Big on Visual Novels, Anime, Video games. Twitter: superange128
Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png
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pyresword
11/08/18 8:36:50 PM
#143:


Belmont could have 52-53% right now and I still wouldn't be worried about him winning.
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Congratulations to BK_Sheikah00, this year's guru to achieve contest enlightenment!
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Polycosm
11/08/18 9:51:40 PM
#144:


I didn't have the guts to back Belmont this deep. Huge respect for those who did.

If any of you ten are following this thread... I'm curious, why do you think he's doing so well? Is it the Smash factor, recent hype around the Castlevania series carrying over, or just underrated in past contests?
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BKSheikah owned me so thoroughly in the 2017 guru contest, I'd swear he used the Lens of Truth to pick his bracket. (thengamer.com/guru)
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Lopen
11/08/18 9:54:33 PM
#145:


I didn't back him but I think the picture is a huge deal that people are underating. Maybe even more relevant than Smash. This is one of the first times we've seen Simon Belmont look like Simon Belmont and not that weird red haired design from judgment.
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_SecretSquirrel
11/08/18 10:07:24 PM
#146:


Yeah, this is a new Simon Belmont. Becuase of Smash, he actually has a definitive look. It's the same thing that happened to Kefka when Dissidia came out, and look how night and day that was for him. The best picture that existed of the blond Simon Belmont from everyone's childhood was an action figure, so it makes sense he would boost due to being flattering on the front page.

Also, a Smash boost for third party characters like a Bayonetta or a Simon is going to increase their stock more than it would someone who already is viewed as Nintendo. So a guy like Belmont who has high fodder before, now has plenty of reasons to boost into at least a capable midcarder, so I was surprised to see that people thought he was still going to drop to an irrelevant Ryu Hayabusa who hasn't done anything in years.

Sadly for me, I underestimated a couple of our completely new characters. I didn't even think Simon was in jeopardy of dropping this match until 2B came along and beat Ness, and I thought Geralt vs. Rosalina had 16>1 written all over it.
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Advokaiser
11/08/18 10:32:21 PM
#147:


Simon winning fills my soul with joy.
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NewerShadow
11/09/18 12:28:56 AM
#148:


Since Geralt/Simon looks like it will be in doubt for a while, so no updates on eliminations for the next division until tomorrow probably. Tifa/Mewtwo might put some people in danger though.
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Cavedweller2000
11/09/18 1:43:52 AM
#149:


I'm surprised I'm not in danger considering how far I took Vincent
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Lopen
11/09/18 1:47:40 AM
#150:


Cavedweller2000 posted...
I'm surprised I'm not in danger considering how far I took Vincent


I mean, you are, but we technically haven't ruled out utterly ridiculous results like say Simon Belmont sweeping through the finals which would negate your lost Vincent points as no one took it.
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SuperNiceDog
11/09/18 1:53:58 AM
#151:


D.Va losing killed my bracket ahhhhh.. oh well ggs
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