Board 8 > * 2018 CBX Guru Contest - Results, Discussions and Eliminations, Part One *

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INTERWEBUSER
12/06/18 2:08:10 AM
453
Im surprised 22 are still alive according to Ngamer.com, assuming it is up to date. At this point in the contest (with 1 through 140 factored in) there shouldnt be more than 10 brackets left at this point. The number of possible remaining outcomes (officially 2^10=1024 but realistically only 5 or 6) is rapidly shrinking.
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MetalmindStats
12/06/18 2:12:49 AM
454
INTERWEBUSER posted...
Im surprised 22 are still alive according to Ngamer.com, assuming it is up to date.

It's only up to date through Cloud's win over Crono right now, not taking into account the four matches that have concluded since then.
_SecretSquirrel
12/06/18 2:13:59 AM
455
Also, two of those brackets are the Cookie and Mr. Bad Picks, so they don't really count towards the total.
---
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NowItsAngeTime
12/06/18 2:26:26 AM
456
@Ngamer64 we need Zelda as a potential winner for Match 135, and just in case for 142, 146, 148, 149
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scaryice
12/06/18 2:37:52 AM
457
0o0bILZ
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Congrats to BKSheikah, the new Guru champ! Not that I'm bitter or anything...
MetalmindStats
12/06/18 2:39:48 AM
458
And then there were eight.
hylianknight3
12/06/18 8:47:44 AM
460
Ahaha, why on Mobius did I pick Sonic to beat Samus?
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If I only consulted the Gossip Stones like BKSheikah, instead of listening to Tingle, maybe I could have been the 2017 Guru Champ!
SuperNiceDog
12/06/18 9:19:39 AM
461
GO METALMIND!!!! You're still alive great job man
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GJ BK_Sheikah
MetalmindStats
12/06/18 9:21:19 AM
462
Because I was curious, I did some analysis of potential Guru winners and eliminations based on the results so far, and assuming Snake and Samus win their current matches.

First, I started with the Path of Least Resistance - which is to say the results for every remaining match that should be favored currently, based on what we have seen to date.

The Path of Least Resistance:
Link > Cloud in 141 (Winners' Semi-Finals 1)
Mario > Zelda in 142 (Winners' Semi-Finals 2)
Mega Man > Crono in 143 (Losers' Round 3)
Samus > Snake in 144 (Losers' Round 3)
Cloud > Mega Man in 145 (Losers' Round 4)
Samus > Zelda in 146 (Losers' Round 4)
Link > Mario in 147 (Winners' Finals)
Samus > Cloud in 148 (Losers' Round 5)
Mario > Samus in 149 (Losers' Finals)
Link > Mario in 150 (Grand Finals)

Note that these results are not necessarily guaranteed by any means, particularly in the cases of Mega Man > Crono and Mario > Samus.

Here's the paths where the fewest changes to this scenario must occur in order for each remaining Guru entrant to win, listed from most to least likely in my opinion:

In the Path of Least Resistance, SpikeDragon wins the guru.
If Crono beats Mega Man, and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance, dimi wins the guru.
If Zelda beats Mario, and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance (and its hierarchies [i.e. Mario > Samus > Cloud]), XIII wins the Guru.
If Crono beats Mega Man and Cloud beats Samus and Mario, and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance, Advokaiser wins the Guru.
If Mario beats Link in battle 150, and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance, SecretSquirrel (greatone) wins the Guru.
If Snake wins in battle 150 (and all necessary battles leading up to it), and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance, MetalmindStats wins the Guru.
If Mario both wins the winners finals and wins in battle 150, and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance, chocoboslayer wins the Guru.
if Crono wins battle 149 (and all necessary battles leading up to it), and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance, BK_Sheikah00 wins the Guru in a tie with SpikeDragon.

And here's all the elimination sweepstakes (as far as I can tell) for battles 142-144, disregarding 141:

If Mario beats Zelda in 142, SpikeDragon eliminates XIII.
If Zelda beats Mario in 142, SecretSquirrel and XIII eliminate chocoboslayer.
If Mega Man beats Crono in 143, SpikeDragon eliminates BK_Sheikah00.
If Samus beats Snake in 144, SpikeDragon eliminates MetalmindStats.
If Samus beats Snake in 144 after Zelda beats Mario in 142, XIII also eliminates MetalmindStats.
If Samus beats Snake in 144 after Crono beats Mega Man in 143, Advokaiser, BK_Sheikah00, and dimi also eliminate MetalmindStats.
If Snake beats Samus in 144, SpikeDragon eliminates dimi.

And finally, a list of the characters who need to win in order to preserve certain Gurus:

- Snake can't lose a single match if I'm to stay alive.
- Crono can't lose a single match before 150 if BK_Sheikah00 is to stay alive.
- Samus can't lose a single match before 149 if dimi is to stay alive.
- Mario can't lose a single match if chocoboslayer is to stay alive.
- Cloud can't lose a single losers' bracket match if Advokaiser is to stay alive.
SuperNiceDog
12/06/18 9:21:38 AM
463
"Chrono" hahahahaha

1VSis8D
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GJ BK_Sheikah
MetalmindStats
12/06/18 9:22:57 AM
464
SuperNiceDog posted...
GO METALMIND!!!! You're still alive great job man

Hell yeah I am! Now Snake only needs to win five more matches. No big deal!
NewerShadow
12/06/18 9:39:26 AM
465
Here's a list of all the remaining scenarios, and the winner for each one:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZFSVh5SInVd54Ix1bOjp1ldY62AjcImV_wQvv8pMBJ0/edit?usp=sharing

If Cloud wins tonight, Dimi and Advokaiser are eliminated. No eliminations for a Link win.

Cookie should be dead in all scenarios too, and Mr Bad Picks is obviously dead.
MetalmindStats
12/06/18 9:44:08 AM
466
Oops, I missed a few. This is why I should leave the eliminations determination to you!
XIII_rocks
12/06/18 11:11:22 AM
467
MetalmindStats posted...
If Zelda beats Mario, and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance (and its hierarchies [i.e. Mario > Samus > Cloud]), XIII wins the Guru.


If nothing else I'll probably be able to say I was one match away from winning the guru

I guess

Great work on this post (and also to Newer on the spreadsheet)

I know Zelda probably has like less than a 10% chance of pulling this off but everything is crossed!
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Not to be confused with XIII_Stones.
SpikeDragon
12/06/18 1:13:12 PM
468
Am I the only one who thinks Zelda has a realistic chance of beating Mario? Why is consensus that she can't if she just beat Snake? SFF?
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XIII_rocks
12/06/18 1:27:07 PM
469
I mean, she does have a chance. And her numbers have been good. But yeah SFF probably takes it away from her. Also Mario has put up pretty good numbers so far and Snake isn't what he used to be - the days of him being #2 on the site are gone sadly. My legends bracket was predicated on him being at his best.
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Not to be confused with XIII_Stones.
SpikeDragon
12/06/18 1:33:37 PM
470
Huh I guess I dont know much about who is strong on the site and who isn't. I still think Zelda has much greater than a >10% chance though. I would say 50/50 but I feel like everyone else's reasoning is having me second guess myself into a 40/60
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BKSheikah beat me in the BYIG Guru Contest
The_Ctes
12/06/18 1:39:55 PM
471
If you look at how Mario and Zelda did on Seph and Aeris, then I'd say Zelda needs rSFF to pull it off.
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Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone.
SpikeDragon
12/06/18 1:45:12 PM
472
Mario got 59% on Seph and Zelda got 62% on Aerith. I'm not gonna pretend I'm super knowledgeable on contest stats but I'm gonna guess Mario's result was more impressive?
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BKSheikah beat me in the BYIG Guru Contest
XIII_rocks
12/06/18 2:45:03 PM
473
The_Ctes posted...
If you look at how Mario and Zelda did on Seph and Aeris, then I'd say Zelda needs rSFF to pull it off.


Yeah I knew it was something like that but I couldn't be bothered looking up who faced who.

Yeah Mario crushed Seph with such ease that Zelda looks very unlikely to win there.
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Not to be confused with XIII_Stones.
SpikeDragon
12/06/18 3:20:19 PM
474
Ah. Okay well I still think Zelda has >10% but idk what I'd put it at anymore.
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*Gives you Spiked Punch* (>'.')>\*/
BKSheikah beat me in the BYIG Guru Contest
Advokaiser
12/06/18 5:20:22 PM
475
Well, my fate depends on Cloud pulling the upset against Mario, which is improbable but still on the table. I made my bracket based on Cloud recovering his #2 status due to Smash, but I somehow fear that he'll meet the fate of every other FF protagonist on the contest.
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Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8.
SpikeDragon
12/06/18 6:20:35 PM
476
To be honest I took the Mega Man > Cloud upset because I thought MM smash exposure but I forgot that Cloud was also in smash
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BKSheikah beat me in the BYIG Guru Contest
NewerShadow
12/06/18 11:32:48 PM
477
MetalmindStats posted...
If Mario beats Zelda in 142, SpikeDragon eliminates XIII.
If Zelda beats Mario in 142, SecretSquirrel and XIII eliminate chocoboslayer.

This is accurate for tomorrow's eliminations, no one else is up.
NowItsAngeTime
12/07/18 4:40:51 AM
478
NowItsAngeTime posted...
@Ngamer64 we need Zelda as a potential winner for Match 135, and just in case for 142, 146, 148, 149

---
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Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png
ZeldaTPLink
12/07/18 8:06:35 AM
479
What is the point of Mr. Bad Picks again?
SuperNiceDog
12/07/18 8:49:12 AM
480
it all comes down to Mario vs Zelda...

If Zelda wins, XIII can win!
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GJ BK_Sheikah
NowItsAngeTime
12/07/18 11:59:23 AM
481
ZeldaTPLink posted...
What is the point of Mr. Bad Picks again?


For the upsets that basically no one picked like Zelda
---
ISFJ Big on Visual Novels, Anime, Video games. Twitter: superange128
Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png
Polycosm
12/07/18 12:03:21 PM
482
ZeldaTPLink posted...
What is the point of Mr. Bad Picks again?

To humiliate you when he correctly picks a match.
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BKSheikah owned me so thoroughly in the 2017 guru contest, I'd swear he used the Lens of Truth to pick his bracket. (thengamer.com/guru)
OrangeCrush980
12/07/18 6:33:13 PM
483
ZeldaTPLink posted...
What is the point of Mr. Bad Picks again?


To show that a clearly terrible bracket can outlive most of the gurus just because it is such a different bracket,
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Courage is the magic that turns dreams into reality.
chocoboslayer
12/07/18 7:13:28 PM
484
"oh"
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The Choco. The Cream of Yuna Fanboyism
_SecretSquirrel
12/07/18 7:25:11 PM
485
chocoboslayer posted...
"oh"

Well, we had a good run, but maybe we backed the wrong Nintendo character to upset Link.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2018 Guru Contest winner. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=40
Wreath
12/07/18 8:11:46 PM
486
OrangeCrush980 posted...
ZeldaTPLink posted...
What is the point of Mr. Bad Picks again?


To show that a clearly terrible bracket can outlive most of the gurus just because it is such a different bracket,


But how can it be terrible le if 50% of humans cant logically predict a bracket better
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OrangeCrush980
12/07/18 8:13:42 PM
487
Wreath posted...
But how can it be terrible le if 50% of humans cant logically predict a bracket better


Well for one thing it's objectively terrible in that it already surrendered hundred of points before the first match began by not picking a winner at all.
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Courage is the magic that turns dreams into reality.
Wreath
12/07/18 8:20:06 PM
488
OrangeCrush980 posted...
Wreath posted...
But how can it be terrible le if 50% of humans cant logically predict a bracket better


Well for one thing it's objectively terrible in that it already surrendered hundred of points before the first match began by not picking a winner at all.


Yet it still crushed some gurus.

IQ +1
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Advokaiser
12/07/18 8:54:14 PM
489
Am I still alive if Zelda wins?
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Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8.
MetalmindStats
12/08/18 12:06:27 AM
490
Advokaiser posted...
Am I still alive if Zelda wins?


NewerShadow posted...
MetalmindStats posted...
If Mario beats Zelda in 142, SpikeDragon eliminates XIII.
If Zelda beats Mario in 142, SecretSquirrel and XIII eliminate chocoboslayer.

This is accurate for tomorrow's eliminations, no one else is up.

Assuming you're referring to the current match, yes, you are.
Ngamer64
12/08/18 2:01:58 AM
491
NowItsAngeTime posted...
NowItsAngeTime posted...
@Ngamer64 we need Zelda as a potential winner for Match 135, and just in case for 142, 146, 148, 149

Okay I filled in Zelda all the way down!
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NewerShadow
12/08/18 6:22:57 PM
492
Eliminations for today (2 matches):

Mega Man + Snake:
Advokaiser
BK_Sheikah00
dimi

Mega Man + Samus:
Advokaiser
BK_Sheikah00
dimi
MetalmindStats

Crono + Snake:
BK_Sheikah00
dimi

Crono + Samus:
MetalmindStats
SuperNiceDog
12/08/18 6:48:22 PM
493
so did XIII just win the guru and the actual contest?
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GJ BK_Sheikah
Advokaiser
12/08/18 7:05:49 PM
494
Come on, Crono!
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Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8.
XIII_rocks
12/08/18 9:52:06 PM
495
SuperNiceDog posted...
so did XIII just win the guru and the actual contest?


Long way to go yet.

Also lefty likely beats me.
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Not to be confused with XIII_Stones.
The Owner of FF9
12/09/18 10:27:55 AM
496
Shit, I should have been monitoring this topic the whole contest.

Also should have submitted my bracket.

Fuck me.
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Character Battle X
Current Score: 360/512 This game's winner is ... Zelda?!
dimi161
12/09/18 10:37:33 AM
497
MetalmindStats posted...
Samus can't lose a single match before 149 if dimi is to stay alive.


Well glad my strong faith in Samus isn't what kills me!
_SecretSquirrel
12/09/18 7:23:08 PM
498
Well, if Mario survives today, I hang on for another day, but Samus winning would keep me in a high leaderboard spot for a bit longer. So conflicted...
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2018 Guru Contest winner. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=40
_SecretSquirrel
12/09/18 11:35:36 PM
499
Balthasar, Gaspar, and Melchior
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
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_SecretSquirrel
12/09/18 11:35:39 PM
500
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzC0MEDHcv4" data-time="

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