Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1283

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Page List: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 10
LeonhartFour
10/17/18 5:57:51 PM
#52:


Advokaiser posted...
Has Link actually boosted that much with BotW?

I mean, his game was extremely well-received, but I heard his actual redesign had a mixed reception.


Did it?

Either way, I think having a well received game can only help, and it's not like he needs that much help to start with.
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pjbasis
10/17/18 6:04:15 PM
#53:


I feel like it's pretty impossible to be cookie cutter in this bracket.

Even the safe picks feel like long shots.
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LeonhartFour
10/17/18 6:07:04 PM
#54:


Yeah, the winners/losers bracket stuff especially will be nearly impossible to be cookie cutter just because there will be so many possible permutations of which characters might be there.

Honestly, you only need to deviate from the consensus a few times and be right to land on the final leaderboard.
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Ranticoot
10/17/18 6:13:31 PM
#55:


Breath of the Wild is the best received Zelda game since like Twilight Princess. It's a huge seller. Made Link cool again. I still see memes about it all the time. I think we've got a super powered Link this year from a combination of that and revenge for Draven. He hasn't actually won a contest in eight years - and I think his fans are probably aware of that.

Aside from Link matches I have no idea what the consensus is on any match in Legends. I picked Mega Man over Cloud because it's a fanboy pick that can also happen with Mega Magic(tm)!
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ZeldaTPLink
10/17/18 6:25:56 PM
#56:


I think it's even more well received than TP.
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WitcherGeralt
10/17/18 6:53:52 PM
#57:


Probably means I'm dumb for picking Dante to beat Ganondorf
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NowItsAngeTime
10/17/18 7:08:11 PM
#58:


Looks like another site wide notification is up for brackets

I wonder if anything will show up for the actual matches
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Haste_2
10/17/18 8:22:08 PM
#59:


Loser's bracket prediction percentages are gonna be ugly. I wouldn't be surprised if the contest winner gets a majority of matches in the loser's bracket incorrect.
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SuperNiceDog
10/17/18 10:07:20 PM
#60:


LeonhartFour posted...
Advokaiser posted...
Has Link actually boosted that much with BotW?

I mean, his game was extremely well-received, but I heard his actual redesign had a mixed reception.


Did it?

Either way, I think having a well received game can only help, and it's not like he needs that much help to start with.


this is a good point. I am not sure Link boosted with the game. That light blue tunic...
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Team Rocket Elite
10/17/18 10:11:05 PM
#61:


Link starts the game shirtless. You never need to put on that tunic if you don't like how it looks.
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LeonhartFour
10/17/18 10:11:51 PM
#62:


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Haste_2
10/17/18 10:22:04 PM
#63:


Sorry about the double post, but I'll be doing some additional analysis prior to the contest. This might give us a clue about how well Nintendo characters will do this contest. This is designed for us to take into consideration how much Nintendo characters may boost with the registered votes counting double.
Take this with a grain of salt, however.

The analysis is according to SBAllen's post back in 2013 (on the Board 8 wiki, look up CBIX and it's in Ulti's post-contest analysis). The (%) listed after each match indicates the percentage the winner got against second place (and against 3rd place in a few cases).

The following 2013 matches winners were changed when counting only registered voters:
5149: Jak over Draven (who cares)
5227: Mega Man X over Draven (who cares)
5253: Link over Draven (who cares)
5171: Falcon over Alucard (50%)
5246: Mario over Vivi (50%)
5251: Zelda over Charizard (50%)
5261: Charizard over Mega Man (50%)
5232: Luigi over Big Boss (50.5%)
5220: ?-Block over Rikku (52.5%)
5247: Missingno over Squall (52.5%)
5255: Kirby over Sephiroth (52.98%)

53/47 is the largest gap overcome by registered voters. SBAllen said that about 1/3 of votes are from registered voters in the 2013 contest.

Now, we don't know for sure if there actually WERE any other matches in the first three rounds where registered votes would fliip the results. (hence, take this with a grain of salt) I've decided it's worth looking into close matches where the registered votes did NOT change the winner:

Registered votes in the following matches did NOT change the winner:

Tharja over Tiny Tina (50%)
Pikachu over Sora (50%)
Ike over Proto Man (50%)
Missingno over TIdus (50%)
Shepard over Aeris (51%)
Squirtle over Cloud (51%)
Mr. G&W over Lee Everett (52%)
Nathan Drake over Pac-Man (52%)
Blue over Fox McCloud (52%)
Catherina over Neku (52%)
Urdnot over Cecil (52.5%) and Pit (56%)
L-Block over Auron (52.5%)
Red over Vivi (53.5%) and Squall (59%)
Crash f. over Wheatley (54%)
Kefka beat Zack (54%)
Zidane over Ridley (54%)
Yuna over Master Chief (54%)
DK over Lightning (54%)
Leon Kennedy over Gordon (54%)
Pikachu over Crono (54%)
Weighted Companion Cube over Claptrap (54.5%) and Lenneth (56%)
Mewtwo over Sonic (55%)
Phoenix favored over Marth (55%)
Samus over Tifa (55%)
Elizabeth f. over Poison (56%)
Yoshimitsu over Lu Bu (57%)
Bowser over Sub-Zero (58%) and The Boss (59%)
Squirtle over Dante (58%)
Blue over Nathan (58%)

From here, it doesn't look likely that Square, even old Square, is highly favored of registered voters. (it's too bad we couldn't see What's also notable is that Ridley got 46% on Zidane and Marth got 45% on Phoenix, but did not manage to get the r-vote victory. Also of note is that Fox did NOT get the r-vote victory over Blue, despite it being 52/48. So, Pokemon is not necessarily far behind the rest of Nintendo with r-votes.

I would consider talking about day vs. night matches, but I don't have nearly enough time to look into that. That's another important thing to do when trying to figure out past results.

But wait just a minute! L-Block beat Auron only because of a big rally! What I'm saying is that registered voters actually favored L-Block over Auron!

If you look at ten minutes into the match, Auron had 54.81% on L-Block! Now Auron could have had a good start, though, true. At that point, Auron had 64.17% against Ezio. At the end of the poll Auron had 62.72% on Ezio, though, so extrapolating from that suggests Auron has 53.11% on L-Block at poll's end, if L-Block was constant. Okay, fine. Anyway, this is significant because L-Block is NOT a Nintendo character. L-Block's chances against Kefka look much better.

(I'm not done yet)
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LusterSoldier
10/17/18 10:35:31 PM
#64:


NowItsAngeTime posted...
Looks like another site wide notification is up for brackets

I wonder if anything will show up for the actual matches


The yellow site alert significantly boosted user registrations when it was used in 2015, but I have no idea if it had any effect on the vote totals for that contest.

At least the boost in user registrations will mean more people that will have the registered user bonus.
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LeonhartFour
10/17/18 10:45:00 PM
#65:


I guess we should start looking for the first batch of match pics.

I assume TRE and/or Luster are already on it.
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AxemRedRanger
10/17/18 10:56:49 PM
#66:


...wait a minute.

Why aren't Mewtwo/Draven and Snake/Draven on that list of 2013 matches that would have had their results changed? Omission on SBAllen's part?
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LusterSoldier
10/17/18 11:03:45 PM
#67:


AxemRedRanger posted...
...wait a minute.

Why aren't Mewtwo/Draven and Snake/Draven on that list of 2013 matches that would have had their results changed? Omission on SBAllen's part?


I think Allen might have posted that information on the same day as Mewtwo/Draven, so he probably didn't want to say for sure that the result would have gone the other way with registered users.

LeonhartFour posted...
I guess we should start looking for the first batch of match pics.

I assume TRE and/or Luster are already on it.


It's a little bit too early to check for match pictures at this point. Maybe the first match pictures will be uploaded tomorrow, so I'll wait until tomorrow to make an attempt to find the first match pictures. I currently have a total of 32 possible URLs that I plan to check.
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HeroicSpiderPig
10/18/18 1:45:29 AM
#68:


Allen's stats about registered users mostly tells me that the 4chan ralliers all had registered accounts. That's who was voting for L-Block over Auron and Squirtle over Cloud. There's no way those two results reflect the actual will of normal registered users, as the stats would imply. I'm sorry.
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Averia
10/18/18 2:36:53 AM
#69:


HeroicSpiderPig posted...
at the 4chan ralliers had registered accounts in proportion to (or greater than) normal site visitors. That's who was voting for L-Block over Auron and Squirtle over Cloud


It's very rare for rallied people to register just for it, so I'm not so sure about it.
At that time, there was infinite upsets and ridiculous results, so there might have been an "upset" bandwagon.
Back then, results were so weird Kirby was considered favored over Sephiroth and most people were surprised when Sephiroth actually won.
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pirate109
10/18/18 7:00:30 AM
#70:


Squall v Zelda

who you got and why?
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OFool
10/18/18 7:11:32 AM
#71:


Will this board be linked from the poll as in previous years?

It will definitely liven things up a bit if so
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ZeldaTPLink
10/18/18 8:17:33 AM
#72:


pirate109 posted...
Squall v Zelda

who you got and why?


Zelda because the 2x account thing and BotW should benefit her.
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Moonroof
10/18/18 11:05:02 AM
#73:


The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches.
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abdou
10/18/18 11:19:06 AM
#74:


Moonroof posted...
The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches.


yeah I feel like the impact of the 2x registered users votes is being underestimated.
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charmander6000
10/18/18 11:19:26 AM
#75:


Just confirm the current contests are the Oracle, Bracket Challenge and Spread Betting or am I missing something?
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LeonhartFour
10/18/18 11:22:04 AM
#76:


abdou posted...
Moonroof posted...
The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches.


yeah I feel like the impact of the 2x registered users votes is being underestimated.


I think it's being kind of overestimated honestly
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charmander6000
10/18/18 11:22:18 AM
#77:


abdou posted...
Moonroof posted...
The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches.


yeah I feel like the impact of the 2x registered users votes is being underestimated.


Not really, minus rallies, GameFAQs registered users don't differ too much from random site visitors. I doubt anyone that would have won with more than 53% would lose. Besides, the point of the contest is to see the opinion of the site.
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WiggumFan267
10/18/18 11:35:53 AM
#78:


oh good i will give this a tag
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NowItsAngeTime
10/18/18 11:37:23 AM
#79:


charmander6000 posted...
abdou posted...
Moonroof posted...
The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches.


yeah I feel like the impact of the 2x registered users votes is being underestimated.


Not really, minus rallies, GameFAQs registered users don't differ too much from random site visitors. I doubt anyone that would have won with more than 53% would lose. Besides, the point of the contest is to see the opinion of the site.


Pretty sure the actual point of the contest is to get people to register for the site and get more traffic

Its only half of board 8 that wants it to be about just what the site thinks
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LeonhartFour
10/18/18 11:38:20 AM
#80:


NowItsAngeTime posted...
Pretty sure the actual point of the contest is to get people to register for the site and get more traffic

Its only half of board 8 that wants it to be about just what the site thinks


I mean if they're registering for the contest and voting every day then they're part of the site and I have zero problem with their input

I just don't care about rallies that come for one match and then disappear until the next match.
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charmander6000
10/18/18 11:40:43 AM
#81:


NowItsAngeTime posted...
charmander6000 posted...
abdou posted...
Moonroof posted...
The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches.


yeah I feel like the impact of the 2x registered users votes is being underestimated.


Not really, minus rallies, GameFAQs registered users don't differ too much from random site visitors. I doubt anyone that would have won with more than 53% would lose. Besides, the point of the contest is to see the opinion of the site.


Pretty sure the actual point of the contest is to get people to register for the site and get more traffic

Its only half of board 8 that wants it to be about just what the site thinks


Nah, if it was SBAllen would have told us to screw off.
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NowItsAngeTime
10/18/18 11:40:45 AM
#82:


Aka this weird bubble created to try to separate whats generally more popular internet wide

Ideally the contest could be popular internet wide but theres almost no reason ti come to GameFaqs consistently

A lot of regulars here just stay cuz what were used to
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NowItsAngeTime
10/18/18 11:41:48 AM
#83:


charmander6000 posted...
NowItsAngeTime posted...
charmander6000 posted...
abdou posted...
Moonroof posted...
The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches.


yeah I feel like the impact of the 2x registered users votes is being underestimated.


Not really, minus rallies, GameFAQs registered users don't differ too much from random site visitors. I doubt anyone that would have won with more than 53% would lose. Besides, the point of the contest is to see the opinion of the site.


Pretty sure the actual point of the contest is to get people to register for the site and get more traffic

Its only half of board 8 that wants it to be about just what the site thinks


Nah, if it was SBAllen would have told us to screw off.


The only reason hes done nice things like the double voting for registered voting is to quiet the down the eventual obnoxious crying
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LeonhartFour
10/18/18 11:43:51 AM
#84:


NowItsAngeTime posted...
Aka this weird bubble created to try to separate whats generally more popular internet wide


it's not even that

it's an influx of voters specifically designed to flood votes to a single target

this isn't about "well Monika would be so much more popular with the internet as a whole"

this is about "let's get the specific subset of people who will all vote Monika to come here"
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charmander6000
10/18/18 11:46:00 AM
#85:


NowItsAngeTime posted...
charmander6000 posted...
NowItsAngeTime posted...
charmander6000 posted...
abdou posted...
Moonroof posted...
The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches.


yeah I feel like the impact of the 2x registered users votes is being underestimated.


Not really, minus rallies, GameFAQs registered users don't differ too much from random site visitors. I doubt anyone that would have won with more than 53% would lose. Besides, the point of the contest is to see the opinion of the site.


Pretty sure the actual point of the contest is to get people to register for the site and get more traffic

Its only half of board 8 that wants it to be about just what the site thinks


Nah, if it was SBAllen would have told us to screw off.


The only reason hes done nice things like the double voting for registered voting is to quiet the down the eventual obnoxious crying


Nope, we were going to do that regardless of what happens. This isn't your first contest season, you should know better.
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abdou
10/18/18 11:47:46 AM
#86:


and if you go to reddit/4chan/etc they seem REALLY happy about ruining the contest for gamefaqs, it's annoying and the complaints against it are justified. Although I do understand SBAllen's position is tough, you can't block users from visiting the site.
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charmander6000
10/18/18 11:51:05 AM
#87:


Anyway, one thought that came up is would Waluigi's 2 seed be a hindrance for rallying? It's not that funny if a highly seeded character won.

Though I guess most people don't know the seed, and besides Draven did win as a 3 seed.
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LeonhartFour
10/18/18 11:51:35 AM
#88:


Yeah, the seed doesn't show up in the match itself, so I doubt it would hinder anything.
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trogita
10/18/18 11:59:36 AM
#89:


Biggest two question marks in my bracket are

Squall/Zelda

Tifa/Mega Man X

I feel they're both debatable and might swing the same way because there is a similar contrast in both matches.

PS1 Square characters with cool designs vs. Nintendo-flavored icons
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charmander6000
10/18/18 12:06:26 PM
#90:


Squall/Zelda depends on how much of an affect you believe Breath of the Wild had.

Tifa/Mega Man X depends on how close to Mega Man you think X is.
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trogita
10/18/18 12:18:37 PM
#91:


Breath of the Wild is fraudulent because this is OldFAQs

I do think X is weaker than Mega. And Tifa is supposed to be immune to FF7 anti-voting...

Maybe I'll go with Square on these.
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pjbasis
10/18/18 12:42:42 PM
#92:


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HeroicSpiderPig
10/18/18 2:34:07 PM
#93:


NowItsAngeTime posted...
charmander6000 posted...
abdou posted...
Moonroof posted...
The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches.


yeah I feel like the impact of the 2x registered users votes is being underestimated.


Not really, minus rallies, GameFAQs registered users don't differ too much from random site visitors. I doubt anyone that would have won with more than 53% would lose. Besides, the point of the contest is to see the opinion of the site.


Pretty sure the actual point of the contest is to get people to register for the site and get more traffic

Its only half of board 8 that wants it to be about just what the site thinks


The point of the contest from the site's perspective is to make money, but not from mine. The point of me following is to enjoy myself, and my enjoyment is not dependent on the financial safety of GameFAQS. Why in the world would I care about a temporary traffic increase to this site? I don't have money invested in it.
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STElNER
10/18/18 2:36:17 PM
#94:


i just went through and changed about half of my bracket.
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BlAcK TuRtLe
10/18/18 2:46:33 PM
#95:


WitcherGeralt posted...
I'm pretty tempted to take Mega Man over Cloud. Can't be cookie cutter if you wanna win.

I took Mega Man there without hesitation. He was over Cloud in the last contest's x-stats, and has had well-received bundles and Mega Man 11 since then.

Cloud has had.... nothing?
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MegaWentEvil
10/18/18 2:47:39 PM
#96:


trogita posted...
And Tifa is supposed to be immune to FF7 anti-voting...


I anti-vote Tifa. But not because she's a FF7 character, but because of something she called Barret.
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Zylothewolf
10/18/18 3:09:10 PM
#97:


MegaWentEvil posted...
trogita posted...
And Tifa is supposed to be immune to FF7 anti-voting...


I anti-vote Tifa. But not because she's a FF7 character, but because of something she called Barret.


Cloud says that Barret snores really loud so you better anti-vote Cloud too.
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Advokaiser
10/18/18 3:10:28 PM
#98:


BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
WitcherGeralt posted...
I'm pretty tempted to take Mega Man over Cloud. Can't be cookie cutter if you wanna win.

I took Mega Man there without hesitation. He was over Cloud in the last contest's x-stats, and has had well-received bundles and Mega Man 11 since then.

Cloud has had.... nothing?


Cloud's inclusion in Smash is enough for me to put it above everyone again besides Link.
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charmander6000
10/18/18 3:12:19 PM
#99:


Match I: (1) Dante vs. (16) Cuphead

Previous Contest Performance

Dante 2013
Round 1: 60.08% against Laharl (25.59%) and Raz (14.33%)
Round 2: 31.55% against Squirtle (44.08%) and Zidane Tribal (24.37%)

Cuphead - N/A
N/A

Analysis

Its been a while. Five years since the last character battle. Any data now is useless, but that wont stop me from analysing every match.

Dante had a rough 2013, due to the backlash of DmC. Even if GameFAQs doesnt show too much interest in newer games Dante will hope things are forgiven with the announcement of Devil May Cry V. Though unless something crazy happens Dantes path does feel a bit predictable, so he may not need to worry.

As a character from a new IP, I dont expect too much out of Cuphead. His game did finish third in the 2017 Game of the Year poll where it got crushed by Breath of the Wild and Persona 5. In the past, Dante has had great success in crushing weaker characters and I believe the same will be true here. If Cuphead breaks 30% I would consider that to be a moral victory.

charmander6000s Bracket: Dante > Cuphead

charmander6000s Prediction: Dante wins, 72.43% - 27.57%




Match II: (8) Chloe Price vs. (9) Lightning

Previous Contest Performance

Chloe Price - N/A
N/A

Lightning - 2013
Round 1: 38.42% against Donkey Kong (45.76%) and Falco Lombardi (15.82%)

Analysis

Remember when Lightning lost to Donkey Kong despite Falco being in the poll? Lucky for her third times a charm and barring any rallies she should get her first win. Life is Strange was losing 80/20 to Fallout 3 before the Undertale rally increased it to a respectable 27%.

I feel Life is Strange was more of a slow burner in terms of it gaining popularity, but at the same time the game isnt geared towards the GameFAQs demographics whom are also less likely to play new IPs. I dont expect much out of Chloe Price other than to be weak fodder.

charmander6000s Bracket: Lightning > Chloe Prince

charmander6000s Prediction: Lightning wins, 69.11% - 30.89%
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charmander6000
10/18/18 3:12:45 PM
#100:


Match III: (5) Spyro the Dragon vs. (12) Chun-Li

Previous Contest Performance

Spyro the Dragon - 2013
Round 1: 56.83% against Clementine (29.97%) and Reyn (13.20%)
Round 2: 21.66% against Sephiroth (52.04%) and Morrigan Aensland (26.30%)

Chun-Li - 2013
Round 1: 26.71% against Tifa Lockheart (61.86%) and Cirno (11.43%)

Analysis

I had to think about this match for a while. Both characters performed around the same against Sephiroth and Tifa which on any other year would be good news for Spyro, but in 2013 Sephiroth looked horrible while Tifa looked to be her usual self.

Spyro has started to cross into nostalgic territory in 2013 which would explain his jump in strength. He was also the marketing tool for Skylanders which is no longer popular, but Im not convinced that it brought him much strength on GameFAQs, but any decrease in strength would spell trouble for him.

Chun-Li is the safe bet for this match, but it wouldnt be shocking if Spyro took the upset. While Street Fighter hasnt had anything new, based on the favorite Street Fighter character polls Chun-Li has gained in popularity among the GameFAQs users which remain. If Spyro does win Id keep my eye on Crash and his upcoming match against Cecil.

charmander6000s Bracket: Chun-Li > Spyro the Dragon

charmander6000s Prediction: Chun-Li wins, 55.84% - 44.16%




Match IV: (4) Ganondorf vs. (13) Neku Sakuraba

Previous Contest Performance

Ganondorf - 2013
Round 1: 65.18% against Guybrush Threepwood (18.06%) and Max Payne (16.76%)
Round 2: 17.64% against Vivi (41.27%) and Mario (41.09%)

Neku Sakuraba - 2013
Round 1: 37.87% against Catherine (39.84%) and Vaas Montenegro (22.29%)

Analysis

One of the things Im interested to see is how much of a factor Breath of the Wild will have on this contest. Sure, Ganondorfs role is not huge, but when is it? Ganondorf, while the board favourite may struggle to win the division and a match in the champions bracket should the boost not be as large as expected.

He however, wont struggle in this match. Yes, The World Ends With You was just re-released on the Switch last week, but that alone wont cover the gap between these two characters. Neku may be consider a mainstay, but hes far from having any legitimate strength.

charmander6000s Bracket: Ganondorf > Neku Sakuraba

charmander6000s Prediction: Ganondorf wins, 71.36% - 28.64%
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru
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squallken1
10/18/18 3:23:09 PM
#101:


Just got done with filling the bracket just now. I did the best job a I could with the time giving... can't wait to see how the trollish nature of the internet and the trendies throws logic out the window. I still can't can't believe Draven won last time and as for "best game" years ago... Undertale!?... Seriously!?!?
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