Board 8 > KP's (In-Depth) 2018 Contest Analysis

(+) Yeah! (+)

This is jumping ahead a bit, but I actually think Snake > Mario is significantly more likely in loser's bracket. If there's a a Link/Mario final it's going to be an Nintendo SFF Beatdown, and I think the voters are going to try and avoid a second all-Nintendo final.

And if it's not a Link/Mario final, that means either Snake is stronger than Mario anyways (so picking him in loser's still makes sense), or there's been a rally and none of this matters.
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I'd be surprised if the Losers Bracket saw many changes. It'll be interesting to see the day-to-day variance of results, at least.
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KamikazePotato posted...

I'd be surprised if the Losers Bracket saw many changes. It'll be interesting to see the day-to-day variance of results, at least.

If a match was basically 50-51/50-49 it could certainly matter

I like Losers more for the matchups that wouldnt normally possible if chararacters just single elimind like usual
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Mario beats Snake.

Then Link gives Mario the SFF beatdown of the ages. He leaves the poor Italian man bleeding on the floor.

Then Mario faces Snake again in the losers bracket. When that happens, the board abandons him. Because if someone has a chance in hell of beating Link, it's Snake, not Mario. So Snake wins the rematch.

(and then gets trounced by Link)

Losers Bracket Match 1
Dante vs. Pikachu

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5238-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-2-dante-vs-squirtle-vs

Getting a sense of deja vu here. Different Pokemon, same result.

Pikachu - 60%
Dante - 40%

Pikachu has a 100% chance of winning

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Losers Bracket Match 2
Sora vs. Kirby

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3832-heart-division-round-3-sora-vs-bowser

All the KH3 hype in the world doesn't change that Sora got smacked down by Bowser pretty badly, and Bowser is basically equal to Kirby. As said before, the Hype Era of GameFAQs is over and there's only so much it can do these days. I'll give him an extra 1-2% and call it a day.

Sora - 46%
Kirby - 54%

Kirby has an 85% chance of winning

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Losers Bracket Match 3
Squall vs. Auron

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3839-gear-division-round-3-auron-vs-squall

Deja vu and all that. Maybe if FF8 really has weakened and Squall drops a but but...eh. If that's the case, FFX has probably lost a half-step as well. Not expecting any major changes for this one. Auron could win but I have no reason to bank on it.

Result:
Squall - 52%
Auron - 48%

Squall has a 70% chance of winning

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Losers Bracket Match 4
Tifa vs. Sephiroth

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3849-jenova-division-final-sephiroth-vs-tifa-lockheart

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5259-character-battle-ix-division-7-final-samus-vs-l-block-vs

This match is (probably) going to be an example of why the stats can't be trusted for everything. I might actually argue that Tifa can do better on other opponents because she's much harder to anti-vote, but in a straight match versus Sephiroth, I think the Hierarchy is going to rear its head. Sephiroth is just a bigger, more important FF7 character than Tifa is. Additionally, people who would normally anti-vote Sephiroth aren't going to care nearly as much if he's facing another FF7 character as opposed to, say, any Nintendo character. I think that's enough for him to hold the line.

It is possible he loses though, and man would that be an insanely embarrassing result for him. Going from the #3 character on the site to not even #2 in his own game.

Result:
Sephiroth - 52%
Tifa - 48%

Sephiroth has a 70% chance of winning
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Losers Bracket Match 5
Mega Man vs. Pikachu

Rematch! Mega Man wins again. See my previous writeup on this match on this match for details. There's no inherent reason for this to change...well, not one that can be predicted right now, before the contest has even started.

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Losers Bracket Match 6
Cloud vs. Kirby

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5255-character-battle-ix-division-3-final-sephiroth-vs-big-boss

Think that's the only poll needed. If Sephiroth can beat Kirby without being endangered, then Cloud will too. The anti-votes will make him look bad but I don't think he'll actually be in trouble. Wouldn't be the first time that Kirby pulled a wacky result out of his ass, though.

Result:
Cloud - 53%
Kirby - 47%

Cloud has a 75% chance of winning

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Losers Bracket Match 7
Sonic vs. Squall

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5228-character-battle-ix-division-2-round-2-sonic-vs-dracula-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3843-chaos-division-final-sonic-vs-kirby

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3839-gear-division-round-3-auron-vs-squall
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3848-gear-division-final-solid-snake-vs-squall
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5247-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-2-squall-vs-amaterasu

Squall really wishes that this match had taken place years ago. Even now, he still has a chance to win, but there was a time period back then where Squall was really strong and Sonic was at a low point. Since then, Sonic has been on the rebound while Squall...well, it's hard to say what's happened to Squall, as he didn't get anyone good to measure himself by in 2013 outside of maybe Amaterasu. But we do know what happened to FF8 in the Games Contest, and it definitely looked weaker. That's not to say Squall has necessarily dropped, but it's not the implication he wants in a match where he's already the underdog. Sonic games have continued to be real bad so he might have dropped as well but honestly I get the impression that the fanbase is immune to that by now. Sonic will always be propped up by Genesis nostalgia until the end of time.

So yeah. Bank on Squall if you want a decent upset (or are a fanboy) but Sonic is definitely the favorite going into this.

Result:
Sonic the Hedgehog - 52%
Squall Leonhart 48%

Sonic has a 65% chance of winning

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Losers Bracket Match 8
Samus vs. Sephiroth

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5264-character-battle-ix-final-nine-samus-vs-red-vs-mega-man
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5255-character-battle-ix-division-3-final-sephiroth-vs-big-boss

Samus beat Mega Man worse than Sephiroth beat Kirby. Done.

Result:
Samus - 57%
Sephiroth - 43%

Samus has an 80% chance of winning
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LeonhartFour posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

It's not just that Mario might be able to SFF his Smash support away

He can't.

Snake put up a very legit 47% on Link. Mario ain't SFFing him if Link can't.

Wasn't this a bonus match

I trust that as far as I can throw it. It's not gonna produce a legit result I don't think, too much wacky shit happened at the end of that contest to really buy into it.

EDIT: Yup that was literally the day after Snake vs Draven. That's going to see rally spillover, adjust Snake's numbers downward a bunch to get the real result I think.
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KanzarisKelshen posted...

That's going to see rally spillover

looking at the vote totals I'd say that's pretty unlikely

League of Legends didn't care about our contest if Draven wasn't involved

but sure ignore Snake's 2013 strength (where he legitimately outdid Link's projections in multiple matches) and pretend that losing to Vivi wasn't a horrendous result for Mario

one less bracket
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Losers Bracket Match 9
Mega Man vs. Cloud

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5249-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-2-mega-man-vs-kratos-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5261-character-battle-ix-division-9-final-mega-man-vs-zero-mmx-vs

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5237-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-2-cloud-vs-frog-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5257-character-battle-ix-division-5-final-cloud-vs-squirtle-vs

It's impossible to look at those results and think that Cloud was on Mega Man's level in 2013. Mega Man blew out Kratos and Jill way more than Kratos beat Frog and Lugia. Mega Man survived his Pokemon encounter with Zero in the poll while Cloud lost to Squirtle without being held back. I'm simplifying things, but in the end Cloud just...did worse. If you pick him here, you're hoping FF7 rebounds (which is always possible), because the Cloud from 2013 would not have won this match.

Result:
Mega Man - 53%
Cloud - 47%

Mega Man has a 70% chance of winning

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Losers Bracket Match 10
Sonic vs. Samus

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3843-chaos-division-final-sonic-vs-kirby

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5264-character-battle-ix-final-nine-samus-vs-red-vs-mega-man

Blue streak speeds by

Sonic the Hedgehog

Too fast for the naked eye

Wait is that a laser gun

Oh shit

Result:
Sonic the Hedgehog - 43%
Samus - 57%

Samus has a 100% chance of winning

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Losers Bracket Match 9
Crono vs. Mega Man

Not going to post links again. I basically had Crono even to Cloud, and I took Mega Man comfortably over Cloud, and there's no weird fanbase overlap, SO

Result:
Crono - 47%
Mega Man - 53%

Mega Man has a 70% chance of winning

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Losers Bracket Match 10
Mario vs. Samus

Deja vu.

Mario wins.

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Losers Bracket Match 11
Mega Man vs. Mario

Yeah so

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3844-mushroom-division-final-mario-vs-mega-man

That's not changing anytime soon.

Mario wins.

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Losers Bracket Match 12
Snake vs. Mario

Pick whoever you picked last time. People are talking in the topic about theoretical situations like people banding against Link by rallying behind Snake and whatever, but I honestly don't think the site will care when Link starts cracking heads. Draven made Link 'mortal' again which means he won't be anti-voted as much. 2013 was the one shot we had at beating Link and Draven ruined it.

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Final Final Match
Link vs. Some Poor SOB

It's over.

Both the contest, and this topic.

Hope you all enjoyed!

Link wins.
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LeonhartFour posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

That's going to see rally spillover

looking at the vote totals I'd say that's pretty unlikely

League of Legends didn't care about our contest if Draven wasn't involved

but sure ignore Snake's 2013 strength (where he legitimately outdid Link's projections in multiple matches)

one less bracket

Dude

It's 3ways

since when do we trust multiway polls to be very indicative of anything

(and are you forgetting that snake got a rally too? Because that's why I think the result is bunk. Too likely that he was still benefitting from David Hayter lending a hand for the result to be legit.)
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Excluding Pokemon and rallies, 3-ways were generally solid for extrapolating results. Much better than 4-ways were.
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KanzarisKelshen posted...

Dude

It's 3ways

since when do we trust multiway polls to be very indicative of anything

they're indicative of plenty

just because they're not 100% transitive doesn't mean they're completely untrustworthy

KanzarisKelshen posted...

and are you forgetting that snake got a rally too? Because that's why I think the result is bunk. Too likely that he was still benefitting from David Hayter lending a hand for the result to be legit

that rally died out pretty early into the final match so I highly doubt there was any spillover

but it's not like they can't get Hayter to rally him again anyway
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Yeah Snake's rally died the moment that the LoL reddit pinned Draven to the front page. We just gave up by that point.
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I have a really hard time seeing Crono > Cloud. Even if they're even on paper (which I kinda have my doubts about; the last time we saw Cloud outside 3-ways he was beating the likes of Snake easily enough, and you seem to be putting way too much stock in a 2010->2013 drop despite a format change), I really doubt the Square heirarchy lets Crono take that one. Cloud has a lot of the things that make Crono appealing AND a well-developed personality, and while I dunno how many gamers care about that, RPG fans do.
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Crono > Cloud would depend on Crono getting some of that steroid boost CT got in 2015, and I'm not willing to bet on that.

This is the first time since 2002 that Crono's chances of beating Cloud aren't zero though.
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well I dunno if you noticed but GameFAQs loves mute characrters more than a lot of characters that have actual personality
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they're indicative of plenty

just because they're not 100% transitive doesn't mean they're completely untrustworthy

Mario lost to Vivi

Try to imagine that result happening ever in a 1v1, even if you give Vivi the exact same rally he got

If you really believe we would've seen it that year in a 1v1 lemme look for a debatable match that connects to that cuz I'll gladly do a usermap bet over it (and win). I think you can take the round 1 results and maybe most of the round 2 ones seriously. Everything afterward is pretty tainted and unusable.
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KanzarisKelshen posted...

Mario lost to Vivi

Try to imagine that result happening ever in a 1v1, even if you give Vivi the exact same rally he got

it's indicative of a terrible result for Mario because he never should've lost that even with Ganondorf in the poll

2013 Mario was not very good

but feel free to ignore what I actually said and just cherry pick results

KanzarisKelshen posted...

I'll gladly do a usermap bet over it (and win)

waste of time no thanks
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NeoElfboy posted...

and you seem to be putting way too much stock in a 2010->2013 drop despite a format change),

I would say that, far more than the format change, the change in strength of FF7 character has to do with lowered vote totals. FF7 has always done better the higher the vote totals there. You can tell by the anti-votes they get that the core GameFAQs base doesn't like as much as the 'casual' voters.

Or just an opinion shift. Look at these:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1443-which-final-fantasy-title-is-your-all-time-favorite
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5727-from-the-last-27-years-which-numbered-final-fantasy-title-is
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6872-which-final-fantasy-title-is-your-all-time-favorite

Even GameFAQs changes it's opinion over time.
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it's indicative of a terrible result for Mario because he never should've lost that even with Ganondorf in the poll

2013 Mario was not very good

but feel free to ignore what I actually said and just cherry pick results

Oh, I will. We'll see who's still standing once the dust from Vivi/Leon settles. That's gonna be the big benchmark for 'ok, just how trash were 3ways really' - that and Vincent's performances, possibly, though that really will only apply if he seriously impresses.
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I mean FFVII still laid the wood to FFVI when it actually mattered though
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KanzarisKelshen posted...

Oh, I will.

okay good talk
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LeonhartFour posted...

I mean FFVII still laid the wood to FFVI when it actually mattered though

FF7/FF6 got major rally spillover. Based on their performances so far (and what we could glean from their results early in the match) it was going to be like a 54-46 match, which I would hardly qualify as laying the wood to.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3503-contest-quarterfinal-zelda-lttp-ff3-ff7-s-mario-64

This is what used to happen in that matchup.
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KamikazePotato posted...

FF7/FF6 got major rally spillover. Based on their performances so far (and what we could glean from their results early in the match) it was going to be like a 54-46 match

you mean during a part of the match when FFVI is at its best and FFVII is at its worst?

nah 60/40 sounds about right based on the early projections

I wouldn't expect rally spillover to ever seriously favor FFVII here anyway
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I'm not saying FFVII and Cloud haven't lost a lot of strength because they pretty clearly have (CT was looking to lay a smackdown on it if Melee doesn't get in the way after all). I just wouldn't be quite so quick to sound the death knell for Cloud, especially from another Square character who's been in worse shape than he's been for a long time.
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KamikazePotato posted...

NeoElfboy posted...

and you seem to be putting way too much stock in a 2010->2013 drop despite a format change),

I would say that, far more than the format change, the change in strength of FF7 character has to do with lowered vote totals. FF7 has always done better the higher the vote totals there. You can tell by the anti-votes they get that the core GameFAQs base doesn't like as much as the 'casual' voters.

Or just an opinion shift. Look at these:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1443-which-final-fantasy-title-is-your-all-time-favorite
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5727-from-the-last-27-years-which-numbered-final-fantasy-title-is
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6872-which-final-fantasy-title-is-your-all-time-favorite

Even GameFAQs changes it's opinion over time.

I think it's got to do with our lessened votals, yeah

Like I don't think Chrono Trigger does that well in BGE if our votals stop being pathetic, for instance. Voting trends in Mario/Crono matches over time always point towards higher poll numbers favoring Mario because only so many people played CT. One of these days I have to sit down and track what kind of upward trend we have in votals as a contest gets closer to the end so I can guesstimate how many votes Melee/CT got in BGE 2015 over the average expected value for its round, because if we say we got 27k extra votes there (comparing how CT did in the previous round to that match), this means CT only managed to get 5k out of like, 27k extra votes, a little less than 20% - which means its 'true strength' was already around 30k votes or so and couldn't go much higher. Too many data points point that way for me to feel comfortable backing Crono in Crono/Cloud unless our votals are at like, 20k or something. It really sucks that it feels like we're predicting how hardcore a fanbase is these days, over how big it is.
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Rally spillover would absolutely favor FF7 over FF6. The crowd of younger people that came over from tumblr are far more likely to be familiar with FF7.

Unless you're banking on SFF being involved, 60-40 is not remotely the result that comes from that match. FF7's 65% against Smash Wii U is not that much better than FF6's 67% against Paper Mario 2.
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KamikazePotato posted...

FF7's 65% against Smash Wii U is not that much better than FF6's 67% against Paper Mario 2.

Eh, I guess. Giving up 46% to Wind Waker's not a good result for FFVI though, Zelda Drones or not.
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kp's analysis has been completely archived over on traffic jam:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/184626-traffic-jam/76917465?page=3#175

if anyone wants to archive anything else from this topic, post it over in the archive thread:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77084019

thanks!
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KamikazePotato posted...

Rally spillover would absolutely favor FF7 over FF6. The crowd of younger people that came over from tumblr are far more likely to be familiar with FF7.

That's true. Rally spillover is probably why Pokemon was so strong last time as well. Which means that if you think there are going to be more rallies this time, it makes sense to boost those characters in your bracket (and any other more casual, less hardcore characters too).
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Predicting spill over doesn't matter too much. If there's a major rally and you didn't predict the right one, your bracket is sunk. If there's a major rally and you successfully call it, you don't have much competition. It will matter more for the second chance bracket where we largely know which characters are rally fueled and by who.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Snake put up a very legit 47% on Link. Mario ain't SFFing him if Link can't.

Finally somebody gets it right!
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Well, like I said in the other topic, I think the idea that Snake gets his Smash support sapped is a bit of a fallacy. It's based on Samus looking bad in the last couple of matches of the Female Bracket in 2006 and Snake 55/45ing Sonic and Mega Man. It feels very reminiscent of Sephiroth looking bad in the last couple matches of the Villains Contest (where Seph had no competition and you could vote against him without repercussion), only for him to beef back up to where he always was to lay the smack down on Mario.

Remember that Samus has been worth 57%~ on Sonic for a while, and it translates to a Samus win over Snake in 2006. She was just stronger than Snake in 2006. When there was an actual threat to her losing, her natural strength came back.

Snake has looked as strong, if not stronger than Samus, in 2010 and 2013, so I wouldn't expect a repeat of that, at the very least. Mario's a bit tougher because it's been hard to get a good read on exactly how strong he is in a really long time. Everyone assumes he's stronger than Samus because, well, why wouldn't you, but who knows.
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So a few things of note, KP.

You are very down on Cloud, and while I worry heavily about my boy Sephiroth, Cloud has NOTHING to worry about from the likes of Crono and Mega Man.

You are very well informed about Solid Snake's boost upon entry into the Smash series but you miss the fact that the second biggest Smash reveal of all time is Cloud!

I'm not saying he's going to ascend back to Link levels (please oh please give us some Cloud/Sephiroth KH3 trailer during the contest), but his appearance in Smash 4 should at least stop the bleeding enough that he has no chance of losing to Crono or Mega Man.
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Also I think it's very possible that Tifa is the new FFVII number 2.

Call it a hunch but the way Sephiroth has trended downward the last 10 years has been... well, something to behold. He went from indirectly stronger than Cloud in 2002 to... well, out of the Noble 9 now. It's a tough pill to swallow.
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Okay read every writeup, you talked me into switching a few results, good work!


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Glad to see that i still have a knack for leading people down the wrong path! Walk with me to glory!
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ExThaNemesis posted...

Also I think it's very possible that Tifa is the new FFVII number 2.

Call it a hunch but the way Sephiroth has trended downward the last 10 years has been... well, something to behold. He went from indirectly stronger than Cloud in 2002 to... well, out of the Noble 9 now. It's a tough pill to swallow.

you could be right on this. I'd still have Seph at number 2 though, Squall 3rd.
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squall is the ffvii number 3.

STElNER posted...

squall is the ffvii number 3.

No Cloud, No Squall shall hinder us!
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Ngamer64 posted...

Okay read every writeup, you talked me into switching a few results, good work!

I see how it is
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LeonhartFour posted...

Ngamer64 posted...

Okay read every writeup, you talked me into switching a few results, good work!

I see how it is

Should've had In-Depth in the title
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I didnt change any picks based on this topic but it was still fun to read regardless
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I changed 2 picks but I dont remember which

Thank you for the in depth kp analysis

If only Leon had gone as in depth
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For better or.worse Im a stubborn man and trying to be confident in my picks
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Thank you Zen

I finally had time to read your Archive the Contest topic and it was very fun

Keep it up buddy!
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this was a fun topic to read through

my round 1 mirrored your picks almost exactly

my losers bracket could not look any more different, the competitors in each match are so different i couldn't keep straight what match to even compare
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UltimaterializerX posted...

ExThaNemesis posted...

So a few things of note, KP.

You are very down on Cloud, and while I worry heavily about my boy Sephiroth, Cloud has NOTHING to worry about from the likes of Crono and Mega Man.

You are very well informed about Solid Snake's boost upon entry into the Smash series but you miss the fact that the second biggest Smash reveal of all time is Cloud!

I'm not saying he's going to ascend back to Link levels (please oh please give us some Cloud/Sephiroth KH3 trailer during the contest), but his appearance in Smash 4 should at least stop the bleeding enough that he has no chance of losing to Crono or Mega Man.

Wasnt he in Smash 4 before losing to Squirtle? Plus with registered voters, anti votes are going to kill him.

Smash 4 wasn't released in 2013. It was released in 2014.

Clouds inclusion was around 2015
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