Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 154: A Very Special Election

(+) Yeah! (+)

Jakyl25 posted...

A judge denied Paul Manaforts request to get out of house arrest

Good for that judge

He's a pretty prototypical flight risk. Dude gets to Russia, he's never coming back.
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PerfectChaosZ posted...

Corrik also didn't know why the rest of the country would care if someone was elected to the United States Senate from Alabama.

Hey, look! Someone again blatantly lying about what was said.

What I said was you guys sure seem to care a lot.

Responded with how much should I care?

I asked if you are from Alabama?

Cue 14 posts completely devoid of common sense stating how not being from Alabama doesn't matter in how much you care about it. (hint: it should).
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-manafort/judge-tells-ex-trump-adviser-manafort-to-stop-communicating-with-media-idUSKBN1E51ZT

She said she has some outstanding concerns about Manafort's proposed bail package, including the fact he relied on Zillow to come up with some of the property value estimates.

I hope this is actually as funny as my gut reaction to it thought it was
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Lopen posted...

Corrik, come on, man.

Sup, bud?
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Corrik posted...

What I said was you guys sure seem to care a lot.

Implies we should care less about this.

Me specifically I don't care too much since I'm not American, I'd rather talk about the four byelections occurring today which includes one riding which could flip.

Corrik posted...

Responded with how much should I care?

I asked if you are from Alabama?

Implies that the level of "care" is different if you are from Alabama. When in reality senators impact all Americans.
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transience posted...

so who's everyone got in Alabama tomorrow?

gonna go full hope

Jones +1

(Honestly, your prediction seems pretty good if I wasn't going full hope. I still maintain this will be a close election, with the advantage to Moore because *sigh*)
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Corrik posted...

PerfectChaosZ posted...

Corrik also didn't know why the rest of the country would care if someone was elected to the United States Senate from Alabama.

Hey, look! Someone again blatantly lying about what was said.

What I said was you guys sure seem to care a lot.

Responded with how much should I care?

I asked if you are from Alabama?

Cue 14 posts completely devoid of common sense stating how not being from Alabama doesn't matter in how much you care about it. (hint: it should).

why should it

help me understand the truth like you do
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I'm not sure Corrik knows what the senate does :/
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Does Corrik not understand the difference between State Senate and US Senate or something
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You guys thinking Jones will win might honestly be crazy. I worry about you.

Moore by 10 points. 54-44 with 2 on random write ins.
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This is sounding a lot like "Trump can't win" talk.

Places like 538 give Jones about the same odds as Trump did heading into election day.
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Corrik posted...

Sup, bud?

"You guys care an awful lot about the Alabama senate race" very clown

People should care about every senate race. The more contentious ones especially. The controversial ones doubly especially.
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THEDavyJones posted...

This is sounding a lot like "Trump can't win" talk.

Places like 538 give Jones about the same odds as Trump did heading into election day.

I'd take Moore on those odds, please.

Nothing against Jones, I actually like him quite a lot and this isn't the same "why couldn't the Dems find a good candidate" thing that happened in the last couple big special elections. He's actual a good candidate (although if the Dems could've found an anti abortion candidate they might've actually won - but overall I think he is a good candidate). He just isn't winning in Alabama. There are a couple weird polls, but almost all of the closing polls show it going to Moore. He has a huge built in advantage. His scandal is a month old. 80% or Republican voters in Alabama didn't care or thought better of him after the scandal.

Jones will lose handily, and a lot of think pieces will be written along the lines of "but look how good he did guys, good job us!"
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Jones will lose handily, and a lot of think pieces will be written along the lines of "but look how good he did guys, good job us!"

What's handily here?

I think this will be within 3-5 points. I won't rule out the higher single-digits though around... say... 8 I'd start getting surprised and I'd be shocked at double-digits.

If he does lose by double-digits I don't think the narrative will be, "Oh man check out that Democratic overperformance!" think it'll be more "dems in disarray? 2018 panic! gop to get 60 in the senate" even if that doesn't make sense. If he loses by low single-digits you might see that kind of talk.
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This has been such a crazy byelection I don't think either party would look poor.

If Moore loses... "well he had a lot going against him"

If Jones loses... "winning in Alabama was always an uphill battle"

The Dems will have a lot to gain from this win as it will remove the "unlikely victory in a red state" requirement to win the senate.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Jones will lose handily, and a lot of think pieces will be written along the lines of "but look how good he did guys, good job us!"

Do you think hell do better or worse percentage-wise than Hillary did in Alabama?

She got 34%
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If Moore doesn't get at least 57% I'd be surprised. So many people likely saying they wont for him but actually will.

Jakyl25 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Jones will lose handily, and a lot of think pieces will be written along the lines of "but look how good he did guys, good job us!"

Do you think hell do better or worse percentage-wise than Hillary did in Alabama?

She got 34%

Oh I think better than that. I'd be surprised if he lost by 20 points. 10-15 sounds reasonable to me.

But I'd be willing to put money on Moore winning.
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Obama has done a pro-Jones robocall going out to black voters in Alabama tonight

Too little too late?
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charmander6000 posted...

This has been such a crazy byelection I don't think either party would look poor.

If Moore loses... "well he had a lot going against him"

If Jones loses... "winning in Alabama was always an uphill battle"

The Dems will have a lot to gain from this win as it will remove the "unlikely victory in a red state" requirement to win the senate.

agree with this. you can handwave any result here.
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It might be timed to try and keep Republicans from countering with ads/talk that try to tie Jones to Obama?

I assume his popularity/approval is lower there than the national average, after all.
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transience posted...

agree with this. you can handwave any result here.

I dont think you can handwave a Moore landslide

Thats just a bad look for the Dems
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and Obama is probably a negative. this is Alabama after all - the best thing Jones can probably do is be "not Roy Moore" because if he's seen as a democrat, it's over.
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I mean, if it's 70/30 then yeah you can't handwave that, but if it's 55/45? it's Alabama.
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Here is the article about the Obama robocall

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

"Doug Jones is a fighter for equality, for progress," Obama says. "Doug will be our champion for justice. So get out and vote, Alabama."

"This one's serious," Obama says in the call. "You can't sit it out."

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Jakyl25 posted...

Here is the article about the Obama robocall

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

"Doug Jones is a fighter for equality, for progress," Obama says. "Doug will be our champion for justice. So get out and vote, Alabama."

"This one's serious," Obama says in the call. "You can't sit it out."

sorry to be so cynical, but I bolded the only important words
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If he's only robocalling black people, that might help.
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Still think the objective is probably to drive turnout, but intentionally timed so late so that Republicans can't effectively try to make it backfire due to lack of time.
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https://twitter.com/bencjacobs/status/940374865412087809

Speaker at Moore rally says Moore is facing a high tech lynching

Okay okay okay...SET ASIDE the hideously poor phrasing with lynching...

Is this speaker so rural that print newspapers like WaPo are high tech?
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xp1337 posted...

Still think the objective is probably to drive turnout, but intentionally timed so late so that Republicans can't effectively try to make it backfire due to lack of time.

This is likely it.
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Speaker at the Moore rally:

https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/940381835170865152

Porter claims George Soros registering felons in jail so this is where we are #ALSEN #alpolitics

One day theyll get that no-good Soros
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https://twitter.com/bencjacobs/status/940379810450345985

Speaker at Moore rally: If the jihadists had the energy of the liberals, theyd have indoor plumbing

Laziness seems like an...odd trait to bestow upon jihadists on the day of an attempted terror attack
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/bencjacobs/status/940379810450345985

Speaker at Moore rally: If the jihadists had the energy of the liberals, theyd have indoor plumbing

Laziness seems like an...odd trait to bestow upon jihadists on the day of an attempted terror attack

That insult doesn't even make sense. Is he implying that liberals are energetic and create modern conveniences?
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i think he's implying that liberals have all this energy they're wasting yelling at people just trying to live their lives?

Maybe?
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Jones will lose handily, and a lot of think pieces will be written along the lines of "but look how good he did guys, good job us!"

Do you think hell do better or worse percentage-wise than Hillary did in Alabama?

She got 34%

Oh I think better than that. I'd be surprised if he lost by 20 points. 10-15 sounds reasonable to me.

But I'd be willing to put money on Moore winning.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3299/Who-will-win-the-2017-US-Senate-special-election-in-Alabama

There ya go, man. Should be free money for you. You're welcome.
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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/940399983181869056

Roy Moores wife Kayla: Fake news will tell you that we dont care for Jews. One of our attorneys is a Jew! #ALsen

Well then
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Im convinced
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https://twitter.com/benwallacewells/status/940392886729957377

"We're in the great fourth turning here" - Bannon, to a somewhat perplexed sounding crowd.

Anyone better versed in ethnic nationalism deep lore than I am able to translate?
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/benwallacewells/status/940392886729957377

"We're in the great fourth turning here" - Bannon, to a somewhat perplexed sounding crowd.

Anyone better versed in ethnic nationalism deep lore than I am able to translate?

according to various google things, based on a crazy book that declares history to be cyclical through a generation and that we are destined to repeat some sort of civil war/world war type crisis right around now.

Best I could decipher from it.
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Top alt-right minds...
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Isn't The Fourth Turning a young adult novel about a young teen girl in a post-apocalyptic society forced to run in a wheel on television through a maze in order to protect her caste of worker-class family member from being sacrificed to a sleeping computer god that was actually a nuclear weapons computer built in the early 21st century, but while in the wheel, she falls in love with the strapping blonde boy in the wheel next to her, so she shirks her programming and is able to see color once more as she flees the walled-off city to restart society on an island that was once called Manhattan many centuries ago?
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scarletspeed7 posted...

Isn't The Fourth Turning a young adult novel about a young teen girl in a post-apocalyptic society forced to run in a wheel on television through a maze in order to protect her caste of worker-class family member from being sacrificed to a sleeping computer god that was actually a nuclear weapons computer built in the early 21st century, but while in the wheel, she falls in love with the strapping blonde boy in the wheel next to her, so she shirks her programming and is able to see color once more as she flees the walled-off city to restart society on an island that was once called Manhattan many centuries ago?

Still less stupid than what he was actually talking about.
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Holy shit. I just saw a picture of the killer cop. This guy looks JUST like Evan Peters. Like, if Ryan Murphy ever does a mini0series on this story, Evan Peters will play the lead.
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/940399983181869056

Roy Moore?s wife Kayla: ?Fake news will tell you that we don?t care for Jews. One of our attorneys is a Jew!? #ALsen

Well then

We can finally clear Donald Sterling of racism while we're at it.
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I'm hearing that at the Moore rally one of his friends told a story about how they ended up at a child brothel in Vietnam?

That can't possibly be true, and yet...
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FFDragon posted...

I'm hearing that at the Moore rally one of his friends told a story about how they ended up at a child brothel in Vietnam?

That can't possibly be true, and yet...

*googles*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HD_5iYw4nak

..... what.... the ..... fuck?

the show of morals is.... "hey, we felt we shouldn't be at a child brothel so we left"?

WHAT AM LISTENING TO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ED3zvvKpN6k

better quality

https://twitter.com/gilbertjasono/status/940430863367622657
https://twitter.com/JillFilipovic/status/940429689902026752

lmao

The Canadian byelection results are mostly in...

http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?lang=e

Two of the four ridings were super safe and the results showed (Both Liberals and Conservatives won with >69%). One was fairly safe for the Liberals which they won (49.6% to 40.3%).

The other one was a debatable riding with both leaders making stops. In the end the Liberals swung the riding, winning 47.1% to 42.5%. This is the second riding the Liberals gained over the Conservatives in byelections which is pretty good for the incumbent party.

The results were pretty disastrous for the NDP as well where they underperformed relative to 2015. Sure they had no chance at winning, but perception is important. Lucky for them no minor party defeated them though the Greens came close in South Surrey-White Rock.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SBP0SiR6_0

Trae Crowder doing his part to inspire Alabama into doing the right thing.
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