Current Events > So, some bad news for Republicans today in election results.

(+) Yeah! (+)

Kansas' 4th district has an empty seat. The person who held it, Mike Pompeo, defeated his opponent in 2014 by 34%. Mike Estes, the Republican pick and favorite to replace Pompeo, is currently only winning against his Democratic challenger by single digits. Currently a 6% lead.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/KS_US_House_0411.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

The important news from this is that Republicans are apparently tanking support in very, very deep red districts. I don't think anybody expects Kansas to flip in upcoming elections, but what does this say about states that are lean-red and more urbanized like Georgia?
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Well there's also a Georgia race to watch right now.
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So Democrats will nominate another right wing fake liberal
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Zero_Destroyer posted...

I don't think anybody expects Kansas to flip in upcoming elections, but what does this say about states that are lean-red and more urbanized like Georgia?

I've become deaf to these hypothetical questions ever since the election ended.
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Who would've thought going for a short term win instead of a long term investment was going to backfire
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It's bound to spook some House Republicans, which will make it even harder for them to get anything done.

"Bad news republicans. A republican candidate is winning."
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daftpunk_mk5 posted...

"Bad news republicans. A republican candidate is winning."

How to you spin a 28% loss in support in a deep red district as good news for the party nationally?
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Zero_Destroyer posted...

Kansas' 4th district has an empty seat. The person who held it, Mike Pompeo, defeated his opponent in 2014 by 34%. Mike Estes, the Republican pick and favorite to replace Pompeo, is currently only winning against his Democratic challenger by single digits. Currently a 6% lead.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/KS_US_House_0411.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

The important news from this is that Republicans are apparently tanking support in very, very deep red districts. I don't think anybody expects Kansas to flip in upcoming elections, but what does this say about states that are lean-red and more urbanized like Georgia?

thats its worth democrats trying to win rather then retreating to coastal cities and other urban areas.

prior to trumps election, the county that had the longest streak of voting democrat was in kentucky(144 years)
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shockthemonkey posted...

Cuz they still won

"Well, we barely won this seat we should've won by 20-30% and our entire red wall narrative for 2018 is null and void and the Trump backlash narrative the polling supports is apparently real and extends deep into our roots, but at least we held that seat in Kansas!"
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shockthemonkey posted...

You're trying to make this sound hyperbolic but it really isn't. GOP won.

By 6-8% in a district they won by 30-33%+ in the two previous elections. There's no hyperbole. If that downwind of support is applied to other districts then Republicans maintaining a Kansas seat quickly becomes irrelevant when compared to the dozens of seats they'd lose in Purple/Lean Red states that have a better chance of being competitive on the outset.

This is going to blindside you guys in 2018/2020 like it did the Dems in 2016.
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There's a case to be made that the circumstances here were unique; the GOP candidate here is not an incumbent and has ties to a rather unpopular governor; most house seats in two years will be contested by well-liked incumbents.

But still, both parties can learn from this.
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Antifar posted...

There's a case to be made that the circumstances here were unique; the GOP candidate here is not an incumbent and has ties to a rather unpopular governor; most house seats in two years will be contested by well-liked incumbents.

But still, both parties can learn from this.

I think the fact that a conservative Georgia district is also very competitive gives credence to the idea of a Trump backlash.

I don't expect a 28% drop across the board, but 2018 will be very competitive.
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Zero_Destroyer posted...

daftpunk_mk5 posted...

"Bad news republicans. A republican candidate is winning."

How to you spin a 28% loss in support in a deep red district as good news for the party nationally?

It's not good or bad. Mid-Term elections have very low turnouts. I'd imagine this one has an even lower turnout than that.
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Crazyman93 posted...

Mid-Term elections have very low turnouts.

This is typically a thing that hits Democrats harder than Republicans
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AssultTank posted...

I live in Georgia and didn't know there was one going on tonight, not in the district though.

There wasn't!
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AssultTank posted...

I would expect voter turnout is lower than usual among Republicans due to lack of knowledge

They had Trump and Pence doing robocalls
http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/10/politics/donald-trump-robo-call-kansas-special-election/index.html
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