~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/
~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA
SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.
Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
Something has to keep these topics going during the offseason. I'm pretty sure every bit of contest minutiae worth discussing has already been mined in the past ten years of contests and offseasons. All we really have left is Luster spending more time analyzing each regular poll than most people do the actual contests.
Goofy or not, he's pretty much single-handedly keeping the Stats topics alive at this point.
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
Something has to keep these topics going during the offseason. I'm pretty sure every bit of contest minutiae worth discussing has already been mined in the past ten years of contests and offseasons. All we really have left is Luster spending more time analyzing each regular poll than most people do the actual contests.
During the past month, I've only posted trend charts for 2 polls. 2 polls out of the last 30 we've had. I did the trend chart for the continent poll and also a trend chart for the "Hot enough for ya?" poll. I also did a trend chart for the poll about subtitles/dubbing in Japanese video games, but I never posted those because they weren't extreme enough.
Not_Wylvane posted...
300 posts of this topic will be dedicated to Luster's in-depth analysis of carbonated beverage polls.
XD at Wylvane.
-- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
The 3DS has been gaining very little ownership since last Christmas. Ownership has only gone up by 2.56% since last year's Christmas. I imagine the 3DS won't be gaining much ownership at all until the 3DS XL comes out.
-- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
Luster what is your favorite poll from the first half of 2012?
The continent poll. It has the most extreme trends. Besides the continent poll, it would also be the soda poll and the age poll. This year's age poll was more boring because the trends were much weaker as a result of being on the weekend.
-- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
Vita is still struggling nearly 5 months later. Vita's ownership right now is almost identical to what the 3DS had on its launch date, and that's considering the Vita has already been out for nearly 5 months.
I thought the Vita would have better ownership than this, based off of this poll:
Vita had 6.68% ownership in that poll, with another 6.58% saying that they plan on getting it soon. Out of the 6.58% that said they would be getting one soon, only 3.62% of those people actually got a Vita (bringing ownership up to 10.30% right now).
-- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
Over 45% of the site rarely or never plays their Wii anymore? Hot damn, that's insane. More extreme than I was expecting. That also ties in very strongly with the decline of the Wii on this site.
Update on system ownership:
PS3 is now at 64.51%, previously at 63.28% in the last PS3 poll. Vita is now at 12.17%, previously at 6.68%.
-- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
Luster what is your favorite poll from the first half of 2012?
The continent poll. It has the most extreme trends. Besides the continent poll, it would also be the soda poll and the age poll. This year's age poll was more boring because the trends were much weaker as a result of being on the weekend.
Luster literally told me when I should vote, such was his interest in the continent poll
Luster what is your favorite poll from the first half of 2012?
The continent poll. It has the most extreme trends. Besides the continent poll, it would also be the soda poll and the age poll. This year's age poll was more boring because the trends were much weaker as a result of being on the weekend.
Luster literally told me when I should vote, such was his interest in the continent poll
But that would be influencing the trends! What kind of statistical analyst would try to manipulate data to befit his view of how the data should look?
Oh yeah, a lot of them.
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
Xbox 360 ownership went from 59.40% (in the 7/6/2011 poll) to 59.64% in the recent batch of "Got Console?" polls. I think the Xbox 360 has a chance of breaking 60% ownership eventually.
iPhone also improved itself by going from 17.83% to 19.56%. However, it was the Android that got a bigger boost, as it went from 29.55% to 33.85% in a span of about 6 1/2 months.
-- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
I guess LoL won't be lighting any fires in these contests. Well, maybe the game itself could edge above the fodder line, but I certainly wouldn't waste time nominating any heroes from it.
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
From Christmas 2011 till the latest round of polls, PS3 ownership increased from 63.28% to 64.51%, or by 1.23%. 3DS ownership, over the same period, increased from 33.55% to 36.11%, or by 2.56%. I'd expected the 3DS to jump up a bit quicker than that.
-- We are living our lives Abound with so much information
LoL won't win more than one match in a games contest. Not when it currently has a playrate of 25.73%. By comparison, WoW has a playrate of 40.66% in a poll near the end of 2010.
Kotetsu534 posted...
From Christmas 2011 till the latest round of polls, PS3 ownership increased from 63.28% to 64.51%, or by 1.23%. 3DS ownership, over the same period, increased from 33.55% to 36.11%, or by 2.56%. I'd expected the 3DS to jump up a bit quicker than that.
I was a bit surprised at the very slow growth of the 3DS since last Christmas. Now that the 3DS XL was announced a few weeks ago, I expect very little growth until the 3DS XL gets released.
-- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
Strange poll today. The trends will be quite interesting because people from Europe are way more likely to have visited France compared to countries outside of Europe.
-- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!