Board 8 > NCAA Games II: Week 14 Results and Discussion Topic

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swirIdude
08/22/11 9:29:00 PM
#201:


Top 10 SoS
1. Super Mario Bros. 3
2. GoldenEye 007
3. Final Fantasy VI
4. Super Mario Galaxy 2
5. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
6. Final Fantasy X
7. Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty
8. Super Mario Galaxy
9. Legend of Legaia
10. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

Bottom 10 SoS
10. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
9. Demon's Souls
8. Nier
7. Halo 2
6. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
5. Sonic Adventure 2
4. Civilization IV
3. Animal Crossing
2. Fallout 3
1. Umineko no Naku Koro ni (...)

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LinkMarioSamus
08/22/11 9:31:00 PM
#202:


Here goes.

Chrono Trigger has proven itself over and over to be a beast this contest, what with 60-40 victories over the likes of Super Mario Bros. 3 and A Link to the Past (...so what the heck was CT doing when it struggled to break 60% on WIND WAKER???), and as such it should continue to rise. However, Chrono Trigger's biggest test is coming up ahead in Super Mario 64: yes Mario 64 got steamrolled by Melee, but hush. Chrono Trigger was actually a bit of an underdog against both of the big two opponents it has defeated, but we all know that it's not an underdog against Mario 64. I don't think CT will actually lose, but the chance is better than it was against SMB3 or LttP.

Resident Evil 4 added Mario Kart 64 to its list of "RPI top 30 wins", making it 2-0 against the RPI top 30 just like Chrono Trigger is. While I'm not entirely certain that RE4 will defeat MGS3, it likely will, mostly because of MGS3's "bad" record.

If Resident Evil 4 lost a match, however, Super Mario 64 is waiting right there to catch it (right now, at least). Unlike CT and RE4, SM64 has faced a whopping six games in the RPI top 30, which is triple the amount that the two undefeated guys have faced! However, Mario 64 has actually lost one of those matches, and it lost that match pretty badly too. I suppose you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs, but surely you can make one without breaking one too badly, right? Mario 64, of course, has a big match with CT next week (wait, TOMORROW!!!), and that's more or less a clash of the titans, as I detailed. So far Mario 64 is the only Mario platformer not to suffer a second loss however, so given the trends it likely loses...although ending behind Mario 3 wouldn't make a whole lot of sense!

Super Mario Bros. 3...wait, a two-loss game in our top four, really? It's currently 3-2 against the RPI top 30, with two strong opponents coming up and one of...decently high strength I guess, but it'll have no chance to improve that record anytime soon. Looks like that victory over FFVI really improved its SoS or something though.

Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow is currently 3-1 against the RPI top 30. Hilariously enough, according to the RPI (which stands for...what?), the strongest opponent RBY has faced so far is Galaxy 2. RBY has no notable matches coming up ahead, but its upcoming opponents aren't total trash either so it'll take slight increases while it can.

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LeonhartFour
08/22/11 9:33:00 PM
#203:


Poor Legend of Legaia

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nintendogirl1
08/22/11 9:47:00 PM
#204:


Ratings Percentage Index

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WarThaNemesis2
08/22/11 9:51:00 PM
#205:


Actually it's Relative Power Index.

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LinkMarioSamus
08/22/11 9:57:00 PM
#206:


I'm surprised not to see Mario 64 in the top 10 SoS. I'm assuming that the stronger a game's SoS is, the less it falls in a loss, right?

Anyways, Final Fantasy IX may only have one loss, but let's take a good look at its record against the RPI top 30, and...it's 1-1, with that one victory being...a four-vote win over Mario Kart 64, yay! Aside from that, FFIX has been on the receiving end of an SFF blowout from FFX. Also, last week, FFIX had only a one vote lead on BioShock at one point before it decided to just blow the whole match open. Its next two matches WILL be real tests, and there's a good chance that it blows both of them.

Super Mario Galaxy...really, another two-loss game in the RPI top 7, and from the same franchise to boot, really? Well Galaxy is currently 2-2 against the RPI top 30, with both wins being narrow ones over fellow Mario titles. I suppose some kudos should be in order for defeating the RBY-slayer and the LttP-slayer though, but Galaxy seems to overperform against Nintendo opponents so who knows? It gets a guaranteed fall in week 16 due to facing Guitar Hero II, but afterwards it'll be fed to Ocarina of Time so that should be a good opportunity to emerge victorious once again and...kick Ocarina out of the top 30 potentially? Yeah, let's do this Galaxy!

Super Mario Galaxy 2...is behind Galaxy 1, really? Oh well, just like its older brother, Galaxy 2 is 2-2 against fellow RPI top 30 competition, and once again those wins are both against fellow Mario titles. SMG2 seems to have a bit of a problem in that it underperforms against far older games, as it it receives constant anti-votes for "not being old enough", which I think is stupid. But how else are we supposed to explain struggling to avoid being doubled by RBY, doing 9% worse on MGS2 than Galaxy 1 did, and getting only 63% on Silent Hill 2?

Metal Gear Solid...is first in its conference, really? Oh yeah, it hasn't lost since week 3, and it'd probably be hard-pressed to lose to MM again. HOWEVER, MGS has been struggling a little as of late, and it's currently 1-1 against the RPI top 30 with no opportunities to improve it. Fortunately, MGS1's next three opponents are all pretty strong.

A Link to the Past is currently 2-2 against the RPI top 30, and...what the heck were you doing losing to Paper Mario??? Bah. Rivalry week provides it an opportunity to rise further though.

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swirIdude
08/22/11 9:57:00 PM
#207:


WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Actually it's Relative Power Index.

Actually, not in the NCAA it isn't.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratings_Percentage_Index

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swirIdude
08/22/11 9:59:00 PM
#208:


I'm assuming that the stronger a game's SoS is, the less it falls in a loss, right?

Not really. All that means is that a game with a stronger SoS gets more of a benefit against games with similar ratings otherwise. The fall from a loss would still be proportionally equal to what a lower SoS game experiences...in most cases.

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pjbasis
08/22/11 10:01:00 PM
#209:


Aw yeah, Chrono Cross winning and FFVI losing.
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charmander6000
08/22/11 10:15:00 PM
#210:


2. GoldenEye 007

Such a shame that the game won't make the play-offs because of the SoS

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LinkMarioSamus
08/22/11 10:15:00 PM
#211:


WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Actually it's Relative Power Index.

Okay, thanks.

Super Mario World is currently 2-2 against the RPI top 30 (in a bizarre reversal of Galaxy's situation, both losses come at the hands of fellow Mario games), and has an opportunity to improve that during rivalry week. Week 17 also seems to feature a guaranteed victory over a decently strong opponent I guess.

Super Smash Bros. Melee is also 2-2 against the RPI top 30 but its next three opponents are all rather weak. What the heck was Melee doing failing to break 55% on Mario RPG though?

Final Fantasy X is also 2-2 against the RPI top 30, and unlike Melee it's actually facing some strong opponents. It...will be rather funny seeing FFX ahead of the game that it only got 37% on.

Metal Gear Solid 3 is 0-1 against the RPI top 30, and yet it's now happily resting NINE spots ahead of the game that it only got 39% on. MGS3 likely receives a serious wake-up call from RE4 in rivalry week, and after that, its week 16 opponent is...Battletoads, are you joking? Bold Prediction: MGS3 will be struggling to stay in the top 25 after week 16.

Phoenix Wright 1 is 1-2 against the RPI top 30...OBJECTION! I AM SET TO FACE OFF AGAINST SOME TOUGH DUDES IN THE NEXT THREE WEEKS THAT I'M GUARANTEED TO DEFEAT, JUST WATCH ME PASS MELEE!!!

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LinkMarioSamus
08/22/11 10:34:00 PM
#212:


swirIdude posted...
I'm assuming that the stronger a game's SoS is, the less it falls in a loss, right?

Not really. All that means is that a game with a stronger SoS gets more of a benefit against games with similar ratings otherwise. The fall from a loss would still be proportionally equal to what a lower SoS game experiences...in most cases.


I suppose FFVI falling a whopping seven spots should have been enough indication.

Batman: Arkham Asylum is actually 0-2 against the RPI top 30 right now, and yet it's ahead of both the games it lost to! It has good opportunities to kick Phoenix Wright 3 out of the top 30 and (further?) expose FFIX waiting in the wings though.

Majora's Mask is 2-1 against the RPI top 30, but it also faces the dubious distinction of being the first game to appear here to have lost to something outside of the RPI top 30 (in fact, that game is sitting outside the top 50 right now, and man remember when WW was ahead of MM in the RPI?). MM likely falls out of the top 20 next week, but who knows? Afterwards it gets some weak opponents.

Super Metroid, however, is the first game to appear here with a whopping THREE losses. It's currently 1-2 against the RPI top 30 (with that one victory being a 60-40 unexpected blowout of FFVI), has another loss to MGS2, seems to struggle with fellow Nintendo games and stuff from the 6th generation and later, and...overperforms against JRPGs. Samus is in for an extremely unpredictable ride for the next three weeks, though I honestly have a feeling that Super Metroid will win all three of its next matches.

Super Mario World 2 is 1-1 against the RPI top 30 and has a second loss to DKC2. It'll likely fall out of the top 20 in the next rivalry week, but perhaps week 17 could allow it to undo the damage?

Portal is 2-2 against the RPI top 30 and had a third loss, again to MGS2. It gets a free ride in rivalry week, has a guaranteed fall in week 16 due to facing KCF Baseball 2011 (which it might as well be by now), and has an interesting week 17 opponent.

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LinkMarioSamus
08/23/11 6:46:00 PM
#213:


I just realized that Final Fantasy VI has actually faced more games in the RPI top 30 than anything else in the top 30. The problem is that FFVI is currently 3-4 against the top 30!

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