Board 8 > Coronavirus Topic 4: Oblivion

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Wanglicious
03/20/20 1:15:50 PM
#151:


western beef is probably the best supermarket on the west side of midtown.
it's also kind of out of the way for a lot of people, so they go to whole foods instead.

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Jakyl25
03/20/20 1:18:45 PM
#152:


You guys dont just have good old Kroger?
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Wanglicious
03/20/20 1:21:31 PM
#153:


never seen one of those.
and if permanent damage sounds wrong, would you prefer more specific references? lung scarring is the most common and best known one. neurological damage and infertility need more research, as does any impact on the heart.

meanwhile, in the land that used to have pasta...

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1241049144489324544

death rate is up to 8.6%.
the scariest part: remember that this thing doubles every 4-6 days. once it crosses into the thousands like this, it's a rocket.


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Lopen
03/20/20 1:24:00 PM
#154:


Wanglicious posted...
20-44 is still the 2nd highest group of hospitalizations at 20%. meaning 1 in every 5 adult aged 20-44 will need hospitalization.
combined with 45-54, it goes up to 38%.

Unless you're a genetic freak and you're not normal the hospitalization rate of 20-54 would be somewhere between 18-20% of 12%, not 38%

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Jakyl25
03/20/20 1:24:52 PM
#155:


Is Russia just full of shit or is vodka the answer
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Corrik7
03/20/20 1:25:11 PM
#156:


Wanglicious posted...
you're right. though for what it's worth, i wasn't basing the 20-44 age group being the 2nd worst for hospitalizations based on the chart, it was from this bit:

Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged 85 years, 36% were aged 6584 years, 17% were aged 5564 years, 18% were 4554 years, and 20% were aged 2044 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged 19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%3% among persons aged 19 years, to 31% among adults aged 85 years. (Table).

20-44 is still the 2nd highest group of hospitalizations at 20%. meaning 1 in every 5 adult aged 20-44 will need hospitalization.
combined with 45-54, it goes up to 38%.
That's not what that means, Wang.

They are using a sample size.

For example, let me explain this in this way.

The brackets are

1-19
20-44
45-54
55-64
65-84
85+

Let's take million cases

1-19 1000 cases
20-44 625,000 cases
45-54 199,000 cases
55-64 100,000 cases
65-84 50,000 cases
85+ 25,000 cases

If the hospitalization is

1-19 3%
20-44 6%
45-54 10%
54-64 15%
65-84 25%
85% 50%

This gives you raw hospitalizations of

1-19 30 cases
20-44 37,500 cases
45-54 19,900 cases
55-64 15,000
65-84 12,500
85+ 12,500

Now you breakdown the % of age groups hospitalized of total

Total hospitalizations

97,430 hospitalizations

1-19 3/total = negligible
20-44 37500/total = 38.85%
45-54 19,900/total = 20.42%
55-64 15,000/total = 15.4%
65-84 12500/total = 12.83%
85+ 12500/total = 12.83%

You have to take the population of the age brackets into account.

Saying nearly 40% of hospitalizations are 20-44 is clickbait titles. Sure. It can be true. But, it isn't explaining why that is and is preying on fear to get that click.

40% of hospitalizations are 20-44 but only 6% of them get hospitalized. They just have more numbers to draw from.


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Lopen
03/20/20 1:30:15 PM
#157:


Corrik said it a lot better than I did as I ignored population sizes but yeah. That's a wild piece of sensationalistic propaganda in the math you're presenting there

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Wanglicious
03/20/20 1:38:37 PM
#158:


ah. didn't see the sample data getting skewed, thanks.
was taking this line probably the wrong way is also why i wasn't thinking of the 12%:

* Hospitalization status missing or unknown for 1,514 cases.

but if the data set purposefully isn't including them because there's no hospitalizations, it makes sense.
so thanks to both of you.

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Corrik7
03/20/20 2:51:16 PM
#159:


Wanglicious posted...
ah. didn't see the sample data getting skewed, thanks.
was taking this line probably the wrong way is also why i wasn't thinking of the 12%:

* Hospitalization status missing or unknown for 1,514 cases.

but if the data set purposefully isn't including them because there's no hospitalizations, it makes sense.
so thanks to both of you.
Yeah, that's why I said that data about infants being hospitalized was garbage that someone thanked you for and sent to his family.

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Esuriat
03/20/20 2:56:32 PM
#160:


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red13n
03/20/20 2:58:43 PM
#161:


Esuriat posted...
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-madagascar/madagascar-confirms-first-cases-of-coronavirus-president-idUSL8N2B98HO

complete global extinction incoming.

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Wanglicious
03/20/20 3:12:49 PM
#162:


Corrik7 posted...
Yeah, that's why I said that data about infants being hospitalized was garbage that someone thanked you for and sent to his family.

...no, that one didn't have these caveats.
it's not common for children to get it, that part's agreed on. newborns are also pretty unlikely since it's not like they're the ones going out ever. the problem comes in the specifics after that: what happens if they do get it? severe and critical instances happen overwhelmingly to those 5 and under, which is typically under school age. most info on children will involve older ones.

if someone <1 does get it, it's a 53.8% chance of organ failure, which is critical in the american pedatrics breakdown. there are no other caveats or figures to this, it really is that straightforward.

the shift we all know - children who get it don't get symptoms that are as bad and recover relatively quickly and safely - only happens after they're 6.

now, will they live? i mean... immediately after, most likely. will it have a severe impact on their life? absolutely. but this isn't something you want to risk any percentage of.

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Corrik7
03/20/20 3:14:25 PM
#163:


Wanglicious posted...
...no, that one didn't have these caveats.
it's not common for children to get it, that part's agreed on. newborns are also pretty unlikely since it's not like they're the ones going out ever. the problem comes in the specifics after that: what happens if they do get it? severe and critical instances happen overwhelmingly to those 5 and under, which is typically under school age. most info on children will involve older ones.

if someone <1 does get it, it's a 53.8% chance of organ failure, which is critical in the american pedatrics breakdown. there are no other caveats or figures to this, it really is that straightforward.

the shift we all know - children who get it don't get symptoms that are as bad and recover relatively quickly and safely - only happens after they're 6.

now, will they live? i mean... immediately after, most likely. will it have a severe impact on their life? absolutely. but this isn't something you want to risk any percentage of.
That one absolutely had questionable data also.

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ninkendo
03/20/20 3:23:47 PM
#164:


They're taking our temperatures at work now to make sure we're below 100.4

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Wanglicious
03/20/20 3:37:22 PM
#165:


rechecking.
https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/early/2020/03/16/peds.2020-0702.full.pdf

alright, you're right. so readjusting the figures:

severe or critical change rates are:
<1: 10.5%
1-5: 7.3%
6-10: 4.2%
11-15: 4.1%
15-whatever oldest was: 3%

so not nearly as alarming as i thought and said, you're right.
significantly more alarming than the public would think though. almost 2/3 of the problems in children comes from those 5 or less. the bigger issue here will ultimately come down to the family unit: China still typically is a 1 child family, only starting to shift to 2. we're gonna have a waaay bigger sample size and i'd sooner have all mothers know of that risk. "hey, if your newborn cases it there's a 10.5% chance he's going to be have significant issues breathing or organ failure" is definitely a warning to give.


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Corrik7
03/20/20 4:00:55 PM
#166:


Wanglicious posted...
rechecking.
https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/early/2020/03/16/peds.2020-0702.full.pdf

alright, you're right. so readjusting the figures:

severe or critical change rates are:
<1: 10.5%
1-5: 7.3%
6-10: 4.2%
11-15: 4.1%
15-whatever oldest was: 3%

so not nearly as alarming as i thought and said, you're right.
significantly more alarming than the public would think though. almost 2/3 of the problems in children comes from those 5 or less. the bigger issue here will ultimately come down to the family unit: China still typically is a 1 child family, only starting to shift to 2. we're gonna have a waaay bigger sample size and i'd sooner have all mothers know of that risk. "hey, if your newborn cases it there's a 10.5% chance he's going to be have significant issues breathing or organ failure" is definitely a warning to give.
10.5% of those tested and that tested positive for it. That is important.

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SavageInTheBox
03/20/20 4:10:32 PM
#167:


guffguy89 posted...
i find it mildly interesting and at the same time mildly infuriating the way people toss around the "lasting, permanent damage" talk as if they actually know what the hell they're talking about.

My sister is the one giving me this information and she is a neurologist with nearly 15 years in the field. She outright refuses to allow my parents to leave their home for any reason. I trust she knows what she's talking about.

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Jakyl25
03/20/20 4:10:59 PM
#168:


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SavageInTheBox
03/20/20 4:12:18 PM
#169:


Also it looks like pretty much every major metropolitan area is instituting the lockdown so I hope everyone took my warning seriously and prepared accordingly.

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ninkendo
03/20/20 4:21:15 PM
#170:


Italy finally brought in thier military to enforce the lockdown

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SavageInTheBox
03/20/20 4:24:31 PM
#171:


ninkendo posted...
Italy finally brought in thier military to enforce the lockdown

It will end up happening here as well. Please please please prepare accordingly.

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Wanglicious
03/20/20 4:28:51 PM
#172:


Italy, for reference, has looked like this for the past 3 weeks, numbers are all cases/dead:

March 6:
New: 778, 49
Total: 4636, 197

March 13th:
New: 2547, 250
Total: 17660, 1266

March 20th:
New: 5986, 627
Total: 47021, 4032

this is with them trying to slow it down.


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Corrik7
03/20/20 4:30:00 PM
#173:


Wanglicious posted...
Italy, for reference, has looked like this for the past 3 weeks, numbers are all cases/dead:

March 6:
New: 778, 49
Total: 4636, 197

March 13th:
New: 2547, 250
Total: 17660, 1266

March 20th:
New: 5986, 627
Total: 47021, 4032

this is with them trying to slow it down.
When they announced a lockdown of lombardy, they all fled across the country spreading it. Kind of predictable.

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Mr Lasastryke
03/20/20 4:30:01 PM
#174:


Wanglicious posted...
rechecking.
https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/early/2020/03/16/peds.2020-0702.full.pdf

alright, you're right. so readjusting the figures:

severe or critical change rates are:
<1: 10.5%
1-5: 7.3%
6-10: 4.2%
11-15: 4.1%
15-whatever oldest was: 3%

so not nearly as alarming as i thought and said, you're right.
significantly more alarming than the public would think though. almost 2/3 of the problems in children comes from those 5 or less. the bigger issue here will ultimately come down to the family unit: China still typically is a 1 child family, only starting to shift to 2. we're gonna have a waaay bigger sample size and i'd sooner have all mothers know of that risk. "hey, if your newborn cases it there's a 10.5% chance he's going to be have significant issues breathing or organ failure" is definitely a warning to give.

yeah, still good to know because the narrative had always been that children couldn't get infected, which clearly isn't the case. glad the stats aren't as alarming as initially reported, though!

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Whiskey_Nick
03/20/20 4:30:36 PM
#175:


tbf, based on how it transmits and length of time you can be without symptoms and still transfer etc

shouldn't it take 3 full weeks of lockdown to see a change roughly?

When did Italy lockdown?

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Corrik7
03/20/20 4:31:01 PM
#176:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
yeah, still good to know because the narrative had always been that children couldn't get infected, which clearly isn't the case. glad the stats aren't as alarming as initially reported, though!
Nobody ever said children can't get infected. The problem is children get infected a lot and show no symptoms and then spread it. That's why closing down schools was important. It is like a spreading ground to take back into homes.

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LordoftheMorons
03/20/20 4:32:25 PM
#177:


It's mportant to remember that all of the numbers are lagging indicators given the up to two week incubation time of the virus (and then however long it takes for someone to die). Italy locked down on the 9th so hopefully they'll reach their peak soon (this is also why suggestions that we wait until we see Italy-like conditions before locking down were insane).

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Corrik7
03/20/20 4:33:16 PM
#178:


Whiskey_Nick posted...
tbf, based on how it transmits and length of time you can be without symptoms and still transfer etc

shouldn't it take 3 full weeks of lockdown to see a change roughly?

When did Italy lockdown?
The first lockdowns began around 21 February 2020, covering eleven municipalities of the province of Lodi in Lombardy, and affecting around 50,000 people.

Early on Sunday 8 March 2020, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced the expansion of the quarantine zone to cover much of northern Italy, affecting over sixteen million people, restricting travel from, to or within the affected areas, banning funerals and cultural events, and requiring people to keep at least one metre of distance from one another in public locations such as restaurants, churches and supermarkets.

On the evening of 9 March, the quarantine measures were expanded to the entire country, coming into effect the next day. In a televised address, Conte explained that the moves would restrict travel to that necessary for work, and family emergencies, and that all sporting events would be cancelled.[

Most didn't take this seriously and defied it for awhile. However, Italy itself has been locked down as a whole less than 2 weeks.

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Mr Lasastryke
03/20/20 4:36:34 PM
#179:


Corrik7 posted...
Nobody ever said children can't get infected. The problem is children get infected a lot and show no symptoms and then spread it. That's why closing down schools was important. It is like a spreading ground to take back into homes.

yeah, i said it wrong. the narrative was that 0% of the infected children got sick. that's the thing that's incorrect.

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Corrik7
03/20/20 4:41:27 PM
#180:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
yeah, i said it wrong. the narrative was that 0% of the infected children got sick. that's the thing that's incorrect.
0% die basically.

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Wanglicious
03/20/20 4:46:35 PM
#181:


i'm still of the opinion that the death stat is misleading.
like you're not dead now due to technology keeping you alive just long enough to survive but if your body suffered some kind of organ failure, that's a significant reduction in your lifespan.

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mnkboy907
03/20/20 4:47:28 PM
#182:


Man, just imagine if all the other states had the capacity to test like New York does now.

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LordoftheMorons
03/20/20 4:48:57 PM
#183:


Daniel Dae Kim (Jin from Lost) has tested positive:

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1240942356880338944

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CoolCly
03/20/20 6:02:29 PM
#184:


ninkendo posted...
They're taking our temperatures at work now to make sure we're below 100.4


Sounds like they have out of date information - apparently people with coronavirus have been confirmed with lowgrade fevers 99.5

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ninkendo
03/20/20 6:05:31 PM
#185:


The problem with that is the base body temperature fluctuates up-and-down all day so you could be as high as 99.5 and not have anything

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Wanglicious
03/20/20 6:07:03 PM
#186:


yeah. on top of that the virus has been known to give you a fever, your body recovers from said fever, and then it gives you one again.

i don't know what the time period it is for that but i'd assume it's within those first few days where it's flickering.

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Strife2
03/20/20 6:15:14 PM
#187:


GNC closed indefinitely. I am now on lockdown completely.

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Esuriat
03/20/20 6:33:02 PM
#188:


mnkboy907 posted...
Man, just imagine if all the other states had the capacity to test like New York does now.

I haven't been thrilled with Virginia's progress so far. 2,325 tests as of today.

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LordoftheMorons
03/20/20 6:34:22 PM
#189:


Esuriat posted...
I haven't been thrilled with Virginia's progress so far. 2,325 tests as of today.
Ugh

Really worried about my parents :(

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KamikazePotato
03/20/20 6:35:39 PM
#190:


My sister's place of work (a job she started last week) had to be disinfected because two people tested positive

Aaaaaaaaaaaa

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LordoftheMorons
03/20/20 6:42:01 PM
#191:


A Pence staffer has tested positive:

https://twitter.com/agearan/status/1241132071592099841

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PrivateBiscuit1
03/20/20 7:26:28 PM
#192:


Spent my entire afternoon sending in permanent business closures for companies.

That's a downer.

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Seanchan
03/20/20 7:59:49 PM
#193:


Esuriat posted...
I haven't been thrilled with Virginia's progress so far. 2,325 tests as of today.

I can tell you that there's A LOT of people out and about in Arlington and Alexandria. I've been walking around (trying as hard as possible to maintain proper distance) but I've seen lots of people playing soccer and basketball, as well as kids playing on playgrounds.

Best thing that could happen would be a nice rainy cold front to keep people inside. The damn cherry blossoms aren't going to help anything out.

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ninkendo
03/20/20 8:42:12 PM
#194:


Unintended side effect of covid our hospital has seen as many severe child abuse victims this week that we usually see in a month

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LordoftheMorons
03/20/20 8:44:12 PM
#195:


ninkendo posted...
Unintended side effect of covid our hospital has seen as many severe child abuse victims this week that we usually see in a month
Jesus, that's fucking terrible

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FFDragon
03/20/20 9:01:57 PM
#196:


Spoilers the world is terrible

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MegamanX
03/20/20 9:05:18 PM
#197:


The ghetto has no real care about this corona virus lol
-Big party outside yesterday
-Big BBQ today
-Kids playing everywhere

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ninkendo
03/20/20 9:07:11 PM
#198:


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CaptainOfCrush
03/20/20 9:19:37 PM
#199:


LordoftheMorons posted...
Jesus, that's fucking terrible

FFDragon posted...
Spoilers the world is terrible
Yeah, but not terribly surprising when we think about it. You bottle people up together longer than they're used to, and some will snap, even toward loved ones. It's the main reason why I'm still considering staying in my tiny, less supplied condo instead of going to my parents' huge house if we're ever actually placed on enforced lockdown. They might drive me nuts.

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Mr Lasastryke
03/20/20 9:32:40 PM
#200:


it's like 10 cloverfield lane

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