Board 8 > my 5 best and worst picks in contest history

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xp1337
03/19/20 12:08:49 PM
#351:


The 2005 Contest was the end of an era, that's for sure.

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AxemRedRanger
03/19/20 12:26:53 PM
#352:


and then you look at 2015 results and FFXII vs. Portal seems like a debatable match again!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6055-best-game-ever-day-2-smash-bros-melee-vs-portal
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6138-best-game-ever-day-22-round-2-final-fantasy-xii-vs-zelda

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LinkMarioSamus
03/19/20 12:52:09 PM
#353:


I just decided that Portal being given away for free and being a "Game of the Decade" would boost it while Balthier crapped the bed epically in his 2010 character battle appearance would bode ill for FFXII in GOTD. Thankfully I was right. Sometimes I feel like this board is so ignorant about Western games.

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Leonhart4
03/19/20 1:01:31 PM
#354:


Man, LMS rebuking us for being ignorant about games

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LeonhartFour
03/19/20 7:33:57 PM
#355:


#2 Good Pick - Squall > Magus (2005)
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2088-devil-division-round-1-magus-vs-knuckles-the-echidna

This might have been #1 if Squall had actually gotten to beat him! Believe it or not, there was a time in this contest's history where many people believed Magus was the #10 character and might have even had what it took to take down a Noble Niner. He had edged out Ganondorf, who had edged out Tidus (who had put up 42% on a Sonic that was equal with Samus, who was equal with Sephiroth, who was equal with Mega Man. 2018 has really come back full circle to a time when the Noble Nine characters were basically equal with each other except for Link way above them), and then he had gotten 35% on Link in the sprite round. We didn't really fully grasp the concept of bandwagons, overperformances due to bad pictures, and all that stuff at the time, naturally, so it all seemed legit. Then Magus faced the pathetic Luca Blight in round 1 in 2004 before getting SFF'd by Crono, so his strength was masked. Meanwhile, Ganondorf and Tidus had seemingly validated their 2003 X-Stat numbers through their performances, but we didn't realize that Ganondorf had probably boosted due to Twilight Princess hype and Tidus/Shadow being equally overrated is one of the weirdest coincidences in contest history.

Skip ahead to 2005, and we get the appropriately named Devil Division, with Dante, Vincent, Squall, and Magus (we also had Terra and Kerrigan, who flopped terribly, although Terra is for some reason now as strong as we thought she could be). Magus seemed like the obvious favorite to most of the board, but I knew in my heart and mind that Squall could win that match. I had a few others who were on board with me, like Heroic Mario and Lopen, but I was widely mocked for thinking Squall even had a chance (we were brutal to each other in 2005, man). However, this pick was based in the logic that Magus had been overrated all along and we had missed it. I've scoured the Stats Topic archives for the original post where I crunch the numbers, but I must've made a separate topic about it. It was presumably inspired by this post.

And where is all of this Squall > Magus stuff coming from? Squall doesn't stand a chance.

Is that so? Have you noticed that characters who have been measured through Magus don't end up seeming as strong when they're measured independently from him? Let's look at Sam Fisher for a second. Magus failed to double him up, someone Samus quadrupled and took a large dive in the stats. Then you see that Squall got 64.71% on Bomberman, and would you take Fisher over him? I really hope not.

Then let's look at Luca Blight. It's bad enough that he gets quadrupled by Magus on his own. Then comes the Spring Contest. He lost 60/40 to Wesker, who then went on to lose to Kefka by even more than Luca himself would have been expected to lose. Yes, people keep wanting to blame that on Angel Kefka, but I say it's more of a result of overestimation of Luca Blight. He turned out to be much weaker than we thought, much like Sam Fisher.

We can even look at Tidus. His position in the 2004 stats may be questionable, but if it IS accurate, then that also brings into question the position of Magus. Keeping him in the same proportion to Tidus would drop Magus below Squall. Tidus fell 10% short of expectations against Mega Man. It may be a fluke, or it may be a warning sign.

Heck, we can even draw a little bit from Ganondorf. He underperformed by 3% off of expectations against Alucard. I know we've "officially" blamed that on Sephiroth overperforming in 2003, but if we don't, Ganondorf actually falls into almost exactly the same proportion to Bowser (who is slightly below Squall) as he had in the Villains Contest.

Squall has no chance? I beg to differ, my friend.

As an aside, why didn't I listen to myself about Tidus? Argh. Anyway, Magus turned out to be even more overrated than I thought! I remember waking up early to check on the results of Knux/Magus and was absolutely stunned to see that Knuckles was in the lead. I'm still sad that Squall didn't get to face Magus directly because he would've beaten him fairly convincingly. Knux was able to overperform due to the bandwagon effect of beating Magus, so he still ended up being overrated for a couple more years! Seriously, can we bring back this era please?

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LeonhartFour
03/19/20 7:51:31 PM
#356:


#2 Bad Pick - Tidus > Ryu (2005)
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2104-dream-division-round-2-kirby-vs-tidus
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2105-dream-division-round-2-bowser-vs-ryu

Seriously, why didn't I listen to myself about Tidus? I shouldn't have been making this pick if I truly believed Magus were overrated because the cascade effect would trickle down to Tidus. But we supposedly had multiple results "validating" his strength, while Magus just had the one. I willfully chose to disregard the Mega Man/Tidus result as a fluke. Plus, if I believed Squall had near elite strength, that would mean good things for Kirby since he had gotten 45% on him the year before! Regardless, even if you were in the minority of believing in Kirby, very few expected the beatdown that ensued. Only 6 people in the Oracle predicted Kirby to win by more than 52.50% and only two of those went above 55%.

Now with Ryu, I believed that Bowser's Villains Contest performance on Sephiroth (where he scored 40%) was a fluke because that was better than Mario had done just two years before. Something wasn't adding up. Well, I was partially right about Bowser's run being a fluke, but I didn't account for it actually carrying over to SC2K5! I respected Ryu's strength. His nickname during the early years was "Mr. Consistency" because you could count on him to be in the same range in the X-Stats every year. He had gotten 45% on Sonic the year before, too, so I knew he had the potential to win this match. Yet much like Kirby/Tidus, this was a runaway victory for Bowser. It isn't often that I don't get either entrant in a divisional final right outside of a rally, but I'm pretty sure I've never been this wrong about it!

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LeonhartFour
03/19/20 8:06:33 PM
#357:


#2 Painful Pick - Squall > Sonic (2007)
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2918-division-8-final-squall-sora-sonic-sub-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2922-tournament-quarterfinal-snake-l-block-sonic-squall

With the switch to 4-ways in 2007, there were many people looking for upsets, thinking the format would allow for results you wouldn't see otherwise, especially when it pertained to the Noble Nine. Probably the most popular pick was Vincent > Crono, which actually did pan out. I decided to go with Squall > Sonic. I believed Squall had the potential to do it, but Sonic was "fresh" off of Sonic 2006, which was universally hated, so I figured there was a chance it would negatively impact his performance. It was so far, so good after round 1. Squall had convincingly won his round 1 match despite Aerith in the poll with him, while Sonic had struggled against Sub-Zero.

But then something happened that no one could have predicted: Sonic the Hedgehog was announced for Super Smash Bros. Brawl in the middle of the contest. The impact was almost immediate. Sonic doubled Sub-Zero in round two, and now Squall was dragging Sora into their match in round 3. It didn't look good. And yet Squall hung in there and only lost by 1.5%. In the next round, he got close, too, but they were relegated to fighting it out for a distant third since Snake and L-Block were duking it out, so they were largely forgotten in that match (although it has some of the greatest match pics ever made). There's still a part of me that wonders if Squall would've beaten Sonic if not for the Brawl announcement, or maybe simply if Sora hadn't been there. We can't know for sure, of course, but after Squall's 2018 performance, that may have been his last best chance to beat a Noble Niner, and that makes this sting even more.

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Lopen
03/19/20 8:22:51 PM
#358:


Yeah the Squall/Magus pick is a good pick I made but it was mostly you who sold me on it so I wouldn't put it on this list for me, cause well, you did the work. Definitely a very good pick though.

Honestly though not sure why none of us actually picked Knuckles-- if you buy Magus is overrated Knux is pretty good.

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MetalmindStats
03/19/20 8:25:12 PM
#359:


Leonhart4 posted...
I mean, I've already said that I thought X was a bit fraudulent, so Crono beating him doesn't matter.
I guess it's hard to gauge whether or not X was really fraudulent in 2013 - as you pointed out, his 2010 results certainly weren't the mark of a near-elite, but he righted the ship in 2018. If 2013 X ~= 2018 X, then Mario SFF'd him a bit; meanwhile, if 2013 X ~= 2010 X, then Crono would have prevailed by a very convincing margin 1-on-1. Either way, it's a point in Crono's favor.

Leonhart4 posted...
Magus beating Otacon during a good MGS year doesn't prove anything either. It just means Otacon went from being bad fodder to good fodder. We have nothing else to measure him by.
Yeah, I wasn't trying to say it alone proved anything, but I think it's hard to deny Magus 60-40'ing a major MGS character in their best year, in a match some thought such a notorious choker would throw, is at least a good sign.

Leonhart4 posted...
And Cloud was weak enough to lose to Squirtle with no excuses like Crono had. He was routinely underperforming by a lot every round.
Yes, but was he really below normal near-elites such as Bowser (though not in 2013) and even weaker than Sephiroth? I find it more plausible that Squirtle was around the same level as the likes of Red and Pikachu, and Cloud was at least a clear near-elite, which makes Frog's 35% a decent result.

Leonhart4 posted...
Also, I don't think Crono has really changed all that much after, say, 2006. He was always in the range to lose to a top tier near elite.
I guess I'll agree to disagree. Pikachu was an established near-elite further fueled by Pokefear in 2013, and then went 1-1 against Mega Man in very close matches and didn't receive major SFF from the godslaying 2018 Link. To me, that's convincingly ahead of Vincent's prime of 48% on Sonic, 1-1 in very close matches against a washed-up Crono in fourways, and 35% on Link in a match with two other Nintendo characters. Obviously, Crono's strength hasn't skyrocketed since his late 2000s nadir the way his game's did, but I think he's at least distinctly improved since then.

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LeonhartFour
03/19/20 8:35:01 PM
#360:


MetalmindStats posted...
To me, that's convincingly ahead of Vincent's prime of 48% on Sonic, 1-1 in very close matches against a washed-up Crono in fourways

Nah, Vincent won 2007 going away and should have won in 2008 if not for the infamous Chrono Trigger "clutch."

and SFF is not as devastating now as it was back then, just look at the difference between Link/Ganondorf 2004 and Link/Ganondorf 2018

The lower vote totals create more variance and make it harder to score really high percentages. We barely had any characters break 80% in 2018.

(which just tells you how much we hate Draven when Ammy broke 88% on him)

Lopen posted...
Honestly though not sure why none of us actually picked Knuckles-- if you buy Magus is overrated Knux is pretty good.

Yeah, I think there was one character who put Magus below Knuckles if you did the math (I think it was Luca Blight), but even for me, that was too crazy. Really wish I had considered it more!

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transience
03/19/20 10:19:08 PM
#361:


You say, "Magus", I say "Luca Blight."

that's my memory of 2005

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TsunamiXXVIII
03/19/20 11:19:07 PM
#362:


Best picks: Pikachu > Mega Man, DKC2 > Xenoblade and FE:A (and all of the other matches in Division 5 that screwed people up)
Worst picks: Leon/Ada > Sub-Zero/Scorpion and Fox/Wolf > Ryu/Ken. Yeah my Rivalry Rumble game was pretty horrible.

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TsunamiXXVIII
03/19/20 11:29:11 PM
#363:


LeonhartFour posted...
Well, part of being fraudulent means you have to have had the appearance of strength at some point!

Kefka was just a bomb. He's definitely been among the weirdest characters we've ever seen.
Kefka's like an anti-bomb. We thought he could be strong, and he wasn't, so then we started expecting him to lose, and he won.

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TsunamiXXVIII
03/19/20 11:31:40 PM
#364:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Last contest definitely validated the Samus > Mario folks, even though Mario won twice. Took 14 years, but I finally get it. Mario only won the rematch because I had a class I was tutoring vote for Mario at the very end anyway.

That contest also proved the sprite factor doesnt exist.

Only because of registered votes counting double. If all votes counted equally, Samus not only won the rematch but broke 51%.

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Dr_Football
03/19/20 11:35:07 PM
#365:


Kefka>Arthas I believe is when Dr Football Factor was created and i will forever be grateful to him for that

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LeonhartFour
03/20/20 2:02:33 AM
#366:


I have missed on so many Kefka picks over the years, whether picking for him or against him.

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_SecretSquirrel
03/20/20 2:19:49 AM
#367:


I had Kefka winning his division in 2018, thinking that even lower votals would result in a resurgence for older, cult classics that have always been popular with the longtime GameFAQs audience.

The rationale turned out to be spot on, but of course it was Alucard who benefited instead.

But at least I got Kefka > Arthas right.

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LeonhartFour
03/20/20 2:27:37 AM
#368:


I also had Kefka winning the division, and I felt pretty good about it after round 1!

felt decidedly less good about it after round 2

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ctesjbuvf
03/20/20 8:26:09 AM
#369:


I think the only time Kefka screwed me was in 2013. Which was painful to those of us that correctly picked Zack > Ryu H, but picking Ryu H > Zack gave you some points there (almost everyone had Kefka in third).

I mean, I picked Kefka to reach the division finals in 2018, but that felt more like Alucard screwing me and everyone over than Kefka doing so.

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Leonhart4
03/20/20 10:37:38 AM
#370:


Oh wait, I had Big Boss winning the division, but I had him beating Kefka

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LeonhartFour
03/20/20 3:50:58 PM
#371:


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LeonhartFour
03/20/20 5:31:44 PM
#372:


#1 Best Pick - Sonic > Crono (2006)
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2558-tournament-quarterfinal-sonic-the-hedgehog-vs-crono

This one was so satisfying partly because of all the bad Sonic picks I had made in previous contests, highlighted by the painful loss to Mega Man the year before. However, the fact that Sonic came so close to Mega Man, who also had a close match with Crono the round after that, convinced me that he could beat Crono. Yet despite that, Crono was the overwhelming favorite, but it made sense. Crono had a proven record of winning big matches, while Sonic (as well as Snake, the big breakout star of 2006) had yet to beat a single Noble Niner, despite coming close on a couple of instances. When Sonic had a closer match with Vincent than Crono did the year before, it was looking a bit doubtful.

But there was a troubling trend showing itself for Crono. His day vote had become absolutely dreadful. Crono had dropped from 78% to 74% against Captain Falcon in round 1. He dropped from 62% to 57.5% against Bowser. He dropped from 60% to 54.5% against Auron. So even though Crono jumped out to 55% against Sonic at the freeze, I wasn't convinced it was over. However, Crono managed to push his lead up to 2200 votes, but then Sonic started slashing off about 100 votes an hour. Then about halfway through the match, Sonic picked up the pace. Now he was cutting 200-300 votes an hour. When the ASV rolled around, Sonic really hit the afterburners. He cut the lead from 675 to 200 in the space of an hour. Then he chopped off 100 votes in the next update. And then another 100. And then he was up 65 votes and never looked back, winning by over 1900 votes. It's still one of the biggest non-rally-aided comebacks in contest history, and it felt so good to finally get that big Sonic pick right in a way that he should win a big match, by overrunning and overwhelming them with sheer speed. I'm sure a lot of people were probably expecting a Squall match or something at #1, but I think this will always be my favorite "right" pick just for my past history with Sonic and how he finally got that win.

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LeonhartFour
03/20/20 6:06:34 PM
#373:


#1 Worst Pick - GROOSE
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5193-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-1-groose-vs-lu-bu-vs

This match was basically, "Which character do you feel the LEAST bad about?" There was no reason to expect Yoshimitsu, a fighting game character not from Street Fighter, Mortal Kombat, or Smash, or Lu Bu, from Dynasty Warriors of all things, to be any sort of strong. But the alternative was...Groose, a random Skyward Sword character that Board 8 had gotten in as a joke. We already had ample proof that the site didn't really care that much about Skyward Sword, but still, it was Zelda. Surely people would default to Zelda in a situation like this, and so Groose became the big Guru favorite.

Well, Groose was leading at the freeze, but not by much. Yoshimitsu took the lead on the next update, and within 30 minutes, Groose was losing to Lu Bu and plummeting. By the time the match was over, he had finished a distant third to two characters nobody thought were any good in terms of contest strength. I'm not sure if we had given the Zelda fanbase too much credit or not enough credit. They would vote for a horse, but Groose was where they drew the line. I put this at #1 for the sheer hilarity of B8 by and large siding with Zelda by default only to see it get trounced by fodder, something we may never see again. I just wish I had supported Yoshimitsu, since he had been an NRT winner in the past.

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transience
03/20/20 6:15:31 PM
#374:


Groose, man. he's Matt the Mii tier.

good pick with Sonic. that was one of my most depressing matches just because it seemed like Crono's glory years were just over.

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transience
03/20/20 6:17:46 PM
#375:


that said, as bad as the pick is, it just can't be a worst pick of all time because it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. #1 should be a pick into the deep rounds or something like that.

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LeonhartFour
03/20/20 6:19:12 PM
#376:


Yeah, I originally had the Tidus/Ryu picks as #1, but I switched it to Groose just for comedy.

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_SecretSquirrel
03/20/20 6:30:05 PM
#377:


Yeah, it was hilarious to see Groose flop that badly in a match that was basically his best case scenario, but hardly a #1 pick as I think everyone has bombed an all fodder match at some point. It's no worse than half the 8/9s in this contest.

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LeonhartFour
03/20/20 6:41:20 PM
#378:


#1 Most Painful Pick - Final Fantasy X winning Game of the Decade (2010)
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4194-final-rounds-semifinal-final-fantasy-x-vs-zelda-majoras-mask

I will probably never get over this one. The fact that Board 8 decided it needed to rally around plucky underdog Zelda in order to stop Brawl from winning still boggles my mind. Final Fantasy X would've beaten Brawl, darn it! When Game of the Decade was revealed as the contest, I knew I was taking FFX to win and never looking back. I believed it could still hang with Melee and that it could beat Brawl given the opportunity. Most of the board sided with one of the Smash games, although I was certainly far from the only FFX pick.

I think a lot of people were dubious about FFX's chances as it seemingly underperformed in a lot of its matches, but I feel like they started coming around after its convincing win over Resident Evil 4. Plus, Brawl started having close matches against TP and Fallout 3 after beating Melee (it was almost certainly receiving backlash from bitter Melee fans because, once again, they're the worst, but they would've helped FFX win if it came down to it, darn it!). Then along came Majora's Mask, fresh off of beating Pokemon G/S/C, which very few people saw coming. Bah, it's still unbelievable to me! For the first (and almost certainly the last) time, we could've had the actual best game in the contest win the contest, but nooooo, you people had the crazy idea that FFX couldn't take down Brawl and we absolutely couldn't let Brawl be considered our best game of the decade, so let's just throw all our hopes and dreams behind Majora's friggin' Mask. Final Fantasy and Square have had so few reasons to celebrate in this contest since, like 2007, so couldn't you guys just let me have this? I mean, does Zelda have to win EVERY year there isn't a rally? You're all the worst.

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KamikazePotato
03/20/20 6:44:17 PM
#379:


Personal Take: Game of the Decade was objectively a great contest with a bunch of close, interesting matches, and I hated 90% of the results. Majora's Mask vs. Brawl was an embarrassing final.

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LeonhartFour
03/20/20 6:48:14 PM
#380:


KamikazePotato posted...
Personal Take: Game of the Decade was objectively a great contest with a bunch of close, interesting matches, and I hated 90% of the results. Majora's Mask vs. Brawl was an embarrassing final.

Yeah, if there's one thing I can say about GotD2, it's that we're much more likely to get a final that's actually reflective of what most people would think are worthy candidates for the title.

it's also perhaps the only time I won't be bothered by Zelda winning!

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transcience
03/20/20 7:53:24 PM
#381:


you would have said that before gotd too

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Leonhart4
03/20/20 7:57:17 PM
#382:


transcience posted...
you would have said that before gotd too

I dunno. Brawl was the Guru favorite to win it all!

Although maybe the fact that I have Zelda winning and wouldn't mind it winning now means it won't!

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transcience
03/20/20 7:58:39 PM
#383:


I was more thinking that some other Nintendo game is going to be destined to make the final for some dumb reason

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Leonhart4
03/20/20 8:01:21 PM
#384:


Well, there aren't many options in the bottom half since Allen stuffed all the heavy hitters in the top half. What's even the strongest Nintendo game in the bottom half?

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Team Rocket Elite
03/20/20 8:03:51 PM
#385:


You could probably get an Animal Crossing rally started right now. However, later on is probably too late.
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transcience
03/20/20 8:05:36 PM
#386:


SMRPG to the semis seemed like a long shot too. I dont have many good thoughts on this contest but I do think that one of the weaker Nintendo games like Pokemon or Mario Kart or whatever is going to disappoint us all.

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LeonhartFour
03/20/20 8:07:30 PM
#387:


Well, there are four Nintendo options in the lower half: Galaxy 2, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, and HeartGold/Soul Silver.

oh man it's going to be Pokemon isn't it

a remake of a 2000 game

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Team Rocket Elite
03/20/20 8:11:12 PM
#388:


People seemed to be aware that HGSS has a low floor. Losing to NieR: Automata wouldn't be that surprising. Although, getting killed would be. HGSS can't really drop its four pack. The competition is too weak.

Mario Kart is a lot more sketchy. It's wins aren't as clear cut.
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LeonhartFour
03/20/20 8:12:18 PM
#389:


Mario Kart has bombed more often than it's impressed, but it has a favorable fourpack if it's finally going to do something in a contest.

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KamikazePotato
03/20/20 8:13:55 PM
#390:


I think Pokemon would have to really underperform to disappoint. It already has a lot of people taking Nier to beat it.

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Keltiq
03/20/20 9:31:21 PM
#391:


LeonhartFour posted...
Yeah, if there's one thing I can say about GotD2, it's that we're much more likely to get a final that's actually reflective of what most people would think are worthy candidates for the title.

I dunno about most people but Majora's Mask was legitimately my favourite game of that decade (and probably a top 5 of all time), so I've always been annoyed by the "MM didn't deserve to win" narrative

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LeonhartFour
03/20/20 9:32:56 PM
#392:


it's more about the fact that Zelda won despite creating a contest it wasn't supposed to win

it was dumb

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KamikazePotato
03/20/20 9:53:56 PM
#393:


The spirit of Game of the Decade 1 was about celebrating the PS2/GC/XBox and early PS3/360/Wii era. There were like 5 games from the N64/PS1 that crept in and an N64 Zelda game ended up winning. I remember the result was featured in a dedicated Zelda fan site and their impression was "...really?"

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Team Rocket Elite
03/20/20 9:56:22 PM
#394:


Sounds like a fake Zelda fan site that needed to get on our level. >_>
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SeabassDebeste
03/20/20 11:07:43 PM
#395:


MM is possibly my favorite all-time game and i still find it awkward that it won last GOTD. a game that came out in 2000 winning GOTD for 00-09 just felt wrong.
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yet all sailors of all sorts are more or less capricious and unreliable - they live in the varying outer weather, and they inhale its fickleness
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LeonhartFour
03/20/20 11:09:10 PM
#396:


I mean it shouldn't have been eligible in the first place

the decade didn't start until 2001...!

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Mac Arrowny
03/21/20 12:19:29 AM
#397:


LeonhartFour posted...

the decade didn't start until 2001...!


Which decade? The 1999-2008 decade started in 1999.
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xp1337
03/21/20 2:55:55 AM
#398:


LeonhartFour posted...
we could've had the actual best game in the contest win the contest, but nooooo, you people had the crazy idea that FFX couldn't take down Brawl and we absolutely couldn't let Brawl be considered our best game of the decade, so let's just throw all our hopes and dreams behind Majora's friggin' Mask.
excuse me Majora's Mask is legitimately the best game named in your write-up imhotbqh.

the real tragedy was when actual gotd xenosaga iii somehow managed to make vote-ins only to get obliterated

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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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Leonhart4
03/21/20 7:54:08 AM
#399:


It would've been nice to see FFX 90/10 it I agree

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LeonhartFour
03/23/20 11:18:21 PM
#400:


I am eager to see which of my picks from this contest will make this list next time

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