Board 8 > my 5 best and worst picks in contest history

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KamikazePotato
03/16/20 6:16:06 PM
#251:


To be fair to Cecil, Crash was a monster that contest. Look at what he did next round!

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Team Rocket Elite
03/16/20 6:16:48 PM
#252:


Wasn't Cecil just unlucky there? IIRC Cecil boosted enough to beat Crash if Crash didn't get stronger except Crash did get stronger.
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LeonhartFour
03/16/20 6:17:47 PM
#253:


Oh, I know Crash was good that contest! But he was good in 2013, too!

It's weird that we've gotten to the point that people are nostalgic for Crash and Spyro considering how awful they were in the early days of the contest.

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MetalmindStats
03/16/20 6:21:21 PM
#254:


Team Rocket Elite posted...
Wasn't Cecil just unlucky there? IIRC Cecil boosted enough to beat Crash if Crash didn't get stronger except Crash did get stronger.
Cecil scored 48% on Knuckles in a 2010 day match, and ~55% on post-Uprising Pit in 2013. He's been about this strong ever since Dissidia, but always plagued by unfortunate draws.

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_SecretSquirrel
03/16/20 6:24:32 PM
#255:


I also remember Rydia putting on some really good results in the multi-ways that would suggest good things for Cecil.

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Leonhart4
03/16/20 6:25:19 PM
#256:


_SecretSquirrel posted...
I also remember Rydia putting on some really good results in the multi-ways that would suggest good things for Cecil.

Kain and Rydia were both surprisingly decent in 2008, although Rydia had some pretty big TJF going on!

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LeonhartFour
03/16/20 8:46:08 PM
#257:


#9 Good Pick - Luigi > Ganondorf (2007) & Vincent > Ganondorf (2006)
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2915-division-5-final-ganondorf-luigi-master-chief-yuna
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2524-blast-division-round-1-ganondorf-vs-vincent-valentine

For the most part, I think Ganondorf sucks, and it sucks that he's considered to be among the most popular non-Noble Nine characters. He also beats a lot of really good characters, which makes it even more annoying! But I was glad to be on the right side of two picks where he got knocked out as the favorite. After Luigi's strong showing in the 2006 contest, I thought he was primed to score a big upset in the right conditions. Ganondorf was the heavy favorite to win this match (partly because most people didn't foresee Chief's GAME FUEL run, although I did have him going deep myself), but I was banking on one particular disadvantage: The third round has traditionally been the sprite round, and Ganondorf's ugly Bacondorf sprite was sure to show its ugly head. Ganondorf might be stronger when all things are equal (as round two demonstrated), but if the sprite round tradition continued, Luigi had a shot. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened, and Luigi was able to take advantage of it to edge out Ganon for second place.

Now Vincent/Ganondorf was a hotly debated match. This was widely considered a match to determine the #10 character in the contest, or maybe even to be the guy to break the Noble Nine since they faced Sonic next round, who had often been the weak link in the group. There were many people picking the winner to upset Sonic, including our own Heroic Mario, who bet the most legendary B8 account of all-time on friggin' Ganondorf and lost it. Now this should not have been a round 1 match. This is probably the most high-powered first round match ever. It only ended up being a round 1 match because of the female bracket narrowing the field. I took Vincent to win here because I still had faith in my boy Squall. I thought Squall would beat Ganondorf 1-on-1 if it came down to it, so naturally since Vincent had beaten him the year before, Vincent was more likely to win this match. While my faith in Tidus has been woefully misplaced many times over, believing in Squall has worked out for me more times than not (let's never speak of 2018 again)!

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LeonhartFour
03/16/20 9:06:47 PM
#258:


#9. Bad Pick - Zero > Luigi/Kirby & Zero > Pikachu
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2526-blast-division-round-1-luigi-vs-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7351-division-2-final-zero-vs-pikachu

Speaking of Luigi's strong showing in 2006, here it is! I feel like I should've seen this one coming after the Nintendo Boost in 2005, where Luigi put up a good number on Tifa and Mario put a beatdown on Zero. I guess I still wanted to believe in the Zero who was such a beast in 2003 and 2004. I took him to beat both Luigi and Kirby, and while it's not like he got beaten that badly, it's still one of those picks that I regretted after brackets closed.

But I don't think I've ever had instant regret on any pick after bracket lockdown than Zero > Pikachu. I don't know why this is the pick I went with, and it was made obvious after the first round that I had made the wrong pick when Pikachu blew the friggin' doors off of Scorpion. Seriously, I don't know what I was thinking with so many picks in the 2018 contest, but this was probably the most puzzling one of all.

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LeonhartFour
03/16/20 9:39:39 PM
#259:


#9 Painful Pick - Kuja > Master Hand
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2004-triforce-division-round-1-kuja-vs-master-hand

This was the last time I legitimately got angry at a contest result. There have been times since then where I've been bummed out by a result, but I've never been able to work up anger at one. There were people talking up this as an upset pick, but I didn't buy it at all. Master Hand was such a joke. There surely weren't that many people who would vote for a friggin' glove over a well-developed Final Fantasy villain, right? Kuja even got the ideal match picture: His Trance form where he looked like a Super Saiyan rather than his girly thong appearance.

Well, the day of the match arrived and Kuja jumped out big early, getting up to 57% by the first freeze (which was 15 minutes in back in those days). However, Kuja struggled to build any kind of lead at that point, and while it wasn't cutting the actual vote margin, Master Hand was steadily bringing the percentage down. Then once morning arrived, Master Hand started cutting and took the lead in a few hours. And then the glove just left Kuja in the dust, getting up to nearly 54% and winning by over 5000 votes by the end. It was so demoralizing to see how quickly everything turned. That was the first time we really got to see the day vote that Smash would become renowned for over time.

Smash fans are the worst, man.

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Team Rocket Elite
03/16/20 9:45:49 PM
#260:


Shaped like a glove.
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transience
03/16/20 9:46:44 PM
#261:


I'm just gonna be mr. negative here, I guess. you don't get to claim credit for picking against Ganondorf because you always pick against Ganondorf! I bet you took Auron over Ganon, Magus over Ganon, you name it!

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xyzzy
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LeonhartFour
03/16/20 9:49:42 PM
#262:


I didn't make it in time in 2003 to pick Magus > Ganon!

(although I would've picked Tidus > Ganondorf)

I've picked against Ganon when it made sense to! It's not like I was silly like Lopen and taking Dante to beat him! I've been right about him a lot, and even when I've been wrong, it's not like the one I picked got blown out!

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transience
03/16/20 9:54:00 PM
#263:


oh I know it's not that bad. but if you can reason it without bending reality too much, you will!

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xyzzy
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DoomTheGyarados
03/16/20 9:55:23 PM
#264:


I got heroic mario to close his account by betting against ganon. I win.

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transience
03/16/20 9:56:21 PM
#265:


couldn't help but notice that sir chris is no longer an account!

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xyzzy
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LeonhartFour
03/16/20 9:57:21 PM
#266:


I mean, Auron and even Vivi in 2018 weren't bad picks! Vivi got a lot closer than most people thought he was capable of 1-on-1! That was me believing that what Vivi did in 2013 was legit! Faith in Squall almost paid off again...!

I've made much dumber picks when it comes to Zelda than Ganondorf! I actually respect Ganondorf's strength, although I don't think he's ever been quite as strong as most think outside of 2005 where he and Bowser were on steroids from the Villains Contest, for whatever the reason.

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DoomTheGyarados
03/16/20 10:04:45 PM
#267:


transience posted...
couldn't help but notice that sir chris is no longer an account!

I was on a roll and looking for a place to die. I bet it all on the blue bomber. No regrets.

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LeonhartFour
03/16/20 11:04:16 PM
#268:


oh hey I was looking through the stats archives to find something about one of my writeups and I discovered this inspiring bit of prophecy

From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 6/28/2005 5:27:57 PM | Message Detail
Tidus/Kirby was destined to be. Kirby is my 3rd favorite character, and now he will have faced my #1 (Squall Leonhart), #2 (Tidus), and #4 (Ramza Beoulve) characters. Expect him to face Luigi next year.

consider it CALLED

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Lopen
03/17/20 12:43:04 AM
#269:


transience posted...
I'm just gonna be mr. negative here, I guess. you don't get to claim credit for picking against Ganondorf because you always pick against Ganondorf! I bet you took Auron over Ganon, Magus over Ganon, you name it!

This is a kinda lame way to think.

Like the dude who calls a few fairly close matches wrong not only gets to be ridiculed for being wrong most of the time but also doesn't get any credit for the times it actually works cause "well it's bias." Like Mr Negative is 100% unironically right there cause if you're taking it that way you are being negative with every result.

Like I bet you've bet against Master Chief in every match he's been in but I wouldn't take away credit for the Sub-Zero pick cause it was still a risky pick on paper, just like going with Luigi over Ganondorf, especially since there were reasons to go with Luigi there that weren't bias based (Ganon's performance in SFF matches at that point made it a tempting pick)

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LeonhartFour
03/17/20 1:59:55 AM
#270:


#8 Good Pick - Wrex > Cecil > Pit
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5214-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-1-pit-vs-wrex-vs-cecil

Pit was the overall favorite on the board to win this match because he was coming fresh off of Kid Icarus: Uprising (a game that didn't make it into this contest, now that I think about it!), and Cecil had the second most picks. Wrex was a distant third. However, I was skeptical of Pit, who'd looked like trash in 2008 coming off of his inclusion in Brawl, of skyrocketing after a Kid Icarus game that apparently didn't gain wide traction. Then there was Cecil, who hadn't won a darn thing despite being given multiple chances to do so. I wish my 2018 self had listened to my 2013 self in that regard! I didn't see any reason to trust either character, while I felt that Mass Effect was at its peak. The reception to ME3 may have been infamously divisive, but people were nothing if not passionate about it and it didn't stop people from loving the fan favorites (which is part of why I worry about ME2's chances; BioWare and their terrible fanbase put all that passion into cold storage). If there was ever a time for someone like Wrex to win a match, it was now (I used the same rationale for taking Shepard > Aerith, which also paid off! Fast-forward five years and Shepard can barely beat King K. Rool and is getting doubled by Ryu; again, I worry about ME2).

When the match started, it became clear pretty quickly that Pit had no chance since he was already dead last during Nintendo's best time. Cecil put up a fight for about an hour, and after that, Wrex pulled away and never looked back. I felt so good about Wrex's chances that I said I would go on The Show and sing Mordin's "Scientist Salarian" song if he pulled it off, which I did! I don't necessarily recommend that you go find that episode if you missed it because I'm a terrible singer, but it was fun! Man, I miss the days when Mass Effect was a thing.

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LeonhartFour
03/17/20 2:17:43 AM
#271:


#8 Bad Pick - Super Mario Galaxy > Super Metroid (2015)
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6137-best-game-ever-day-22-round-2-super-metroid-vs-super-mario

This was a strange match because these were two Nintendo games that were supposed to be highly respected but had very unimpressive contest resumes. Super Mario Galaxy had lost to friggin' Call of Duty 4 twice in 2009 and was easily disposed of by Twilight Princess in 2010. Super Metroid had been tripled by LTTP in 2004 and got beat down by it again in 2009 after two narrow escapes against Super Mario Kart before that. I went with Super Mario Galaxy based on those Super Mario Kart results alone because I thought there's no way it would drop that. Plus, it's freakin' MARIO and Mario just doesn't lose to Metroid, right?

Well, after the first round made it abundantly clear that '90s games were here to curbstomp this contest (including Super Metroid quadrupling the very same Call of Duty 4 that had beaten Super Mario Galaxy in 2009), it felt like the writing as on the wall, but I thought it could at least be a good match. Nope, Super Metroid jumped out to a 60/40 lead and pretty much held steady there the entire match. I don't know where in the world this version of Super Metroid was in the first two contests, but it wasn't messing around this time! It nearly beat Majora's Mask the next round, which then nearly beat LTTP the round after that. I used to think that Metroid Prime would beat it in a match if it came down to it, but that doesn't look to be the case now.

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LeonhartFour
03/17/20 2:36:40 AM
#272:


#8 Painful Pick - Street Fighter > Resident Evil (2006)
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2448-ultima-division-semifinal-street-fighter-vs-resident-evil

This is actually the match that made me think to do a "painful pick" list, like I mentioned earlier during tran's list. The Series Contest was so cookie cutter, and there were so few chances for you to stand out from the crowd. For me, this was the risk I took. Resident Evil was an overwhelming favorite on the board because there had been "Favorite Capcom series" polls in the past that Resident Evil had won, so everyone ended up siding with it.

Then the match pic was revealed, and Resident Evil literally got a Resident Evil Gaiden match pic against the classic Street Fighter sprites (as an aside, I remember when people would randomly drop by the board and ask "who is this character and why are they winning?" the joke response was always to say they were the main character of Resident Evil Gaiden). I felt like this was my chance, even if it would've felt a little dirty to win because RE got such an awful match pic! In the end, Street Fighter kept it close most of the way, but it could never make a serious charge at taking the lead. Resident Evil pulled away a bit toward the end to give it a more comfortable margin of victory, but for a good while, I thought SF was going to pull it off!

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_SecretSquirrel
03/17/20 3:33:02 AM
#273:


http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/bse2k6/bse24.jpg

Sometimes, I just wonder why anyone would take a look at this in Photoshop and say, "this looks acceptable. Put it on the front page." Yet CJayC did it anyway.

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transience
03/17/20 7:00:52 AM
#274:


Lopen posted...
This is a kinda lame way to think.

Like the dude who calls a few fairly close matches wrong not only gets to be ridiculed for being wrong most of the time but also doesn't get any credit for the times it actually works cause "well it's bias." Like Mr Negative is 100% unironically right there cause if you're taking it that way you are being negative with every result.

Like I bet you've bet against Master Chief in every match he's been in but I wouldn't take away credit for the Sub-Zero pick cause it was still a risky pick on paper, just like going with Luigi over Ganondorf, especially since there were reasons to go with Luigi there that weren't bias based (Ganon's performance in SFF matches at that point made it a tempting pick)

I see your point, but that's not true for me and Master Chief. I definitely picked Halo over Starcraft, and I wrote about picking Halo 3 over Sunshine. I took Chief over DK even though I thought it would be a really close match too. (I did take Frog over Master Chief, but I also took any RPG character over a non RPG character back when I didn't know any better.)

I consider Mario Galaxy over Super Metroid to be a painful pick for me more than a bad pick. I always wanted to believe in Super Metroid, didn't believe here because of Mario and got wrecked.


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Leonhart4
03/17/20 8:51:02 AM
#275:


Well, I certainly don't hold the same fondness for it that you do, but yeah, some of my painful picks are something along those lines, like me wishing I had just believed in my favorite.

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transcience
03/17/20 8:58:05 AM
#276:


it was twofold for me - I didnt totally believe until that Majora match, especially given how Galaxy 2 did.

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iphonesience
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Lopen
03/17/20 10:58:21 AM
#277:


transience posted...
I see your point, but that's not true for me and Master Chief.

Okay well, hypothetically speaking then, were someone to pick Sub-Zero there and do so in a way that the pick makes sense (as you can do by comparing to Scorpion and explaining why Sub-Zero should be more popular, as you did) and it panned out I think it's worth considering regardless of whether there's a pattern.

I just think that trying to discredit every pick that fits a pattern as biased is inherently pretty negative. It's like trying to find an excuse to give someone flak for literally every pick involving the character or game they like unless they pick against it which hey as you've given examples of isn't necessarily always the right move either.

Like you can hold all the 51-49 Dante and Master Chief losses against me you want but at the same time I don't feel it's fair to say calling Master Chief to do extremely well (and Dante to a lesser extent, though his was largely in pathing) in four ways should just be discredited cause I like picking the guys in debatable matches since it's still calling something correctly, and for all the poking I get for these picks it's not like I'm picking 60-40s wrong very often. They're all fairly close losses-- extremely close in many cases.

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transcience
03/17/20 11:28:18 AM
#278:


I dont disagree with you. I even said it was negative up front!

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iphonesience
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Lopen
03/17/20 11:35:54 AM
#279:


Okay. I just wasn't sure if you were saying it was negative in a tongue in cheek kinda way or "well I hate to be the bearer of bad news buttt..." kinda way or what. If you're saying it's negative for negativity's sake then yeah not much to talk about.

Like I guess my point is that picking against the thing you want to win doesn't always make you more objective or your points more valid. It's always about the process to get to the pick and how far off the percentages are. If anything I feel like you tend to overcorrect and are actively picking against stuff you want to win in an attempt to feel like you're being analytical or apathetic about contest results or whatever.

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Leonhart4
03/17/20 11:54:27 AM
#280:


My picks are almost always a combination of fanboyism and logic!

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transcience
03/17/20 12:03:32 PM
#281:


Lopen, I think you took my comment a little too seriously, doubly so if you think I make picks against my favorites just to seem apathetic or whatever. thats a Vlado level accusation. I just pick what I think will win! if you read this topic, youd know that Im very open and self deprecating about my past picks.

Leon has a history of picking against Ganon so I brought it up. I think thats fair. youre more offended than he is!

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iphonesience
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Leonhart4
03/17/20 12:14:09 PM
#282:


I mean, I've been right about Ganon more than I've been wrong...!

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Lopen
03/17/20 12:16:03 PM
#283:


I am because I'm a guy who gets a lot of things wrong and most (not all, but most) of the things I get right you can discredit in the same way

And this isn't a Vlado accusation this is just a pattern I've noticed in following you in the crew and stuff, much like the pattern of guys like Leon and I having characters we like to argue for in debatable matches. You're always the first guy to pick against your bracket or whatever else-- and this often burns you, too. Sorry to offend by psychoanalyzing you I guess but I don't think I'm as far off the mark as you're claiming, especially with that comment which I may be taking too seriously in mind.

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Lightning Strikes
03/17/20 12:28:33 PM
#284:


I have a question.

Why did the 2005 Nintendo boost happen?

2005 was the end of the dark ages for Nintendo as a company, but most of the effects hadnt been felt yet. The Wii wouldnt come out until 2006 and its big titles were mostly unannounced, the DS was out but didnt really pick up steam until summer. You would expect the big boost to be in 2006, and indeed Nintendo kicked arse that year. But why a year earlier? Was it DS hype? E3 2004 (TP reveal, Reggie debut, etc.) hype? The start of Squares slow decline making Nintendo seem better?

I cant think of a single major shift that hasnt had a clear explanation except possibly that one.

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SeabassDebeste
03/17/20 12:33:42 PM
#285:


i don't think it's about picking for or against favorites at all

it's more that a broken clock is right twice a day, so if you under/overrate character X 10 years in a row and then year 11 is the only year that it worked out, it's hard to call that skill
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transcience
03/17/20 12:34:17 PM
#286:


I dont go down with my bracket, that is true. I tend to treat my bracket as disposable as it is based on outdated assumptions and a lack of data. its also true that I dont play favorites with my bracket, probably more so than most. I treat the contests as an interesting intersection of video games and data analysis so I dont cling as tightly to what I like as others may.

though, it probably helps that my favorites are smaller titles that dont have a big following on the site. Ori and the Blind Forest isnt winning no matter how much mental gymnastics I go through. I have done some things like Xenogears over KOTOR in the past if that makes you feel that I have a pulse!

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Lopen
03/17/20 12:46:30 PM
#287:


SeabassDebeste posted...
it's more that a broken clock is right twice a day, so if you under/overrate character X 10 years in a row and then year 11 is the only year that it worked out, it's hard to call that skill

It greatly depends how much you're overrating the character and how often you're wrong or right, and the reasons for choosing the character

To paint Leon as a broken clock for picking against Ganondorf often, when it's very often been the right choice is pretty silly.

Similarly saying I'm a broken clock for picking Dante or Master Chief in debatable matches often when they've lost a bunch of 51-49s is also kinda dumb, especially when my moment of glory with the Chief was "overrating" him (correctly-- and you'll note I didn't do that in 1v1s I had him winning squeaker matches) to a ridiculous extent that no one else on the board was calling for based on factors involving four way matches that people hadn't considered.

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Leonhart4
03/17/20 12:57:30 PM
#288:


Lightning Strikes posted...
I have a question.

Why did the 2005 Nintendo boost happen?

2005 was the end of the dark ages for Nintendo as a company, but most of the effects hadnt been felt yet. The Wii wouldnt come out until 2006 and its big titles were mostly unannounced, the DS was out but didnt really pick up steam until summer. You would expect the big boost to be in 2006, and indeed Nintendo kicked arse that year. But why a year earlier? Was it DS hype? E3 2004 (TP reveal, Reggie debut, etc.) hype? The start of Squares slow decline making Nintendo seem better?

I cant think of a single major shift that hasnt had a clear explanation except possibly that one.

Yeah, it's still a mystery to me, too, especially considering that Mario was seemingly the biggest beneficiary of it and we were still two years away from Galaxy. I'm sure TP and Wii hype helped, as well as the slow decline of Square. Sometimes they just looked better because their competition got worse.

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Lopen
03/17/20 1:14:00 PM
#289:


Yeah I think the boost of 2005 was mostly just the decline of the competition. Square being further and further from relevancy changed the distribution of people who came here (people who are just googling for a guide to their game are going to be here less often with less RPGs being a big deal) regularly. I like to think that the higher vote totals and day to day churn of visitors on this website gets the weaker Nintendo looks. The people who are here day in and day out are the more Nintendo centric people. That's supported by how doubled registered voters alter the vote totals for matches too.

This site was probably most relevant in 2003 and 2007 and you see those as Nintendo's weakest years and it's probably not a coincidence.

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_SecretSquirrel
03/17/20 2:16:46 PM
#290:


I feel like a big part of the Nintendo boost was the poll being moved to a prominent position on the front page. IIRC, 2004 had the poll buried in a spot where you had to scroll to see it, and that jacked up the vote totals, and likely was a disadvantage for certain demographics.

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LeonhartFour
03/17/20 2:24:42 PM
#291:


that was also when the poll start time changed

I don't know if it would've had any real impact but who knows

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LeonhartFour
03/17/20 2:52:27 PM
#292:


#7 Good Pick - Big Daddy > Ness (2010) & 2B > Ness (2018)
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3824-jenova-division-round-2-big-daddy-vs-ness
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7314-division-4-round-2-2b-vs-ness

Ness has basically been our barometer for "average" since 2004. Anyone who has ever finished below him in a contest match has mostly been relegated to a history of contest mediocrity. The only characters who have lost to Ness and still managed to ever win anything else are Shadow and Zidane. Everyone else (Jak, CJ, Travis Touchdown, Geno, CATS, Locke) has either been a perennial loser or someone who vanished from the contests after losing to Ness, never to be seen again. Even Shadow and Zidane haven't exactly done a lot of winning. So in my opinion, if I believe you have a chance to be good, I'm picking you to beat Ness.

I'm not even sure what motivated me to pick Big Daddy to beat Ness. He wasn't very impressive in his 2008 appearance, where he finished dead last behind Gordon Freeman, Scorpion, and Balthier. Maybe it was the vote-in before the contest started where he managed to quality despite some pretty impressive competition and Andrew Ryan from his own game sharing the poll with him, finishing only slightly behind Frog, Rikku, and Liquid Snake. Plus, Ness had kinda sucked in the two 4-way contests. Either way, it was a pick I felt fairly good about. When the match started, Ness jumped out to a 100 vote lead in the first 15 minutes. On the next update, Big Daddy cut it down to 25, and then the update after that, he was leading by 60. From there, he pretty much climbed the rest of the match for an easy win.

Now with 2B, I definitely believed she had the potential to be strong. Automata had been released to outstanding reception, and 2B herself had done surprisingly well in a poll asking what dream character you'd like to see added to Smash Ultimate. I thought the potential was there, especially once you put a prominent picture of her on the front page. To be honest (see what I did there), 2B was also kind of a hedge bet since she was guaranteed to be there and I wasn't even sold that Ness was going to beat Shadow. I'm kind of doing that with some of my picks here and hoping it pays off! Anyway, when the match started, 2B jumped out comfortably ahead and never looked back. Ness brought the percentage down over the course of the day, but he was never in the match.

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xp1337
03/17/20 2:54:14 PM
#293:


LeonhartFour posted...
or someone who vanished from the contests after losing to Ness, never to be seen again.
kind of horrifying if you think about it

like the vyse fodder line but it's a fight for your life

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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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LeonhartFour
03/17/20 3:07:24 PM
#294:


#7 Bad Pick - Lightning > Donkey Kong (2013) & Tidus > Donkey Kong (2018)
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5222-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-1-lightning-vs-dk-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7244-division-1-round-1-tidus-vs-donkey-kong

For the first decade of the contest, Donkey Kong was viewed as a choker who would fold like a wet paper bag in the face of real competition, especially if it was another Nintendo character. For the most part, that had been true. Lightning was a weird case because she had gotten in to the 2010 Character Battle before Final Fantasy XIII had come out in the west and she did surprisingly well on Sonic. Then the game actually came out, and we know how that went. Still, there had been one sequel since then that was fairly well received, and Lightning Returns was also on the horizon at the time of this contest. Even if Lightning wasn't all that strong now, she should at least be able to win a match against Donkey Kong with Falco in the same poll, right? Well, when the match started, DK jumped out to a huge lead and left Lightning in the dust. This wasn't the same old ape anymore.

But when 2018 rolled around and it was Donkey Kong vs. Tidus, two of the most notorious underperformers in contest history, I had to side with my boy Tidus, of course. He had beaten DK fairly easily back in 2008, but what I hadn't counted on that what had happened in 2013 was no mere fluke or Lightning just being terrible. This was the new reality for Donkey Kong, who went on to upset Leon Kennedy the next round before bowing out respectfully to Vivi. What changed? Well, for the first decade of the contest, Donkey Kong basically got nothing in the way of new games. Then in 2010, Donkey Kong Country returns dropped, and suddenly, he was back in the limelight with a well received game, and a sequel that was even better received. I will not doubt DK again.

(don't sleep on Tropical Freeze in round 1 folks)

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LeonhartFour
03/17/20 3:21:28 PM
#295:


#7 Painful Pick - Missingno > Tidus (2013)
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5211-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-1-missingno-vs-tidus-vs

Okay, I didn't actually pick Tidus here, but it was mostly because I didn't want him in round 2 with Squall! I did think he had a chance though, and it was mostly how this thing ended that hurt! Anyway, by the time 2013 rolled around, I thought joke characters had for the most part run their course, and they were never as good the second time as they were the first time. We had already seen it with L-Block and Weighted Companion Cube. Missingno had scored one of the biggest upsets ever by beating Crono in the first round, but I expected a precipitous drop. There was no way he was beating Squall, for sure.

Anyway, Missingno jumped out to a decent lead overnight, but Tidus slowly started chipping away at it and took the lead with a few hours to go. He didn't manage to build a lead past 100 votes, but he was keeping Missingno at bay until the last 30 minutes, when the Pokemon "clutch" kicked in with some suspicious spikes (n_n). By the time the match wrapped up, Missingno had edged Tidus out, while we all waited for some word from Allen about possible cheating. Eventually, he did make a topic, revealing that Tidus had cheated at twice the rate of Missingno! That really only meant that Missingno cheaters were better at covering their tracks, but still, now Tidus was not only labeled a choker but a bad cheater! Seriously, Tidus has had some of the worst contest luck ever. He's been in every Character Battle and has never made it to the third round. Meanwhile, Jecht shows up one time in 2010, makes it to round 3 with an easy draw, and laughs as he disappears from contest lore shouting that he's the best. Life imitating art, man.

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transcience
03/17/20 3:30:13 PM
#296:


2B was a really nice surprise in a contest full of status quo and Nintendo. good pick!

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iphonesience
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IndonesianBanjo
03/17/20 5:36:56 PM
#297:


You thought that match was painful for you?

Get on my level.
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LeonhartFour
03/17/20 5:38:33 PM
#298:


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MetalmindStats
03/17/20 7:29:29 PM
#299:


I thought it was well-known that the Gamespot merger and the invigoration of vote totals it produced was what caused the Nintendo boost of 2005, but maybe the B8 wiki is letting me down there.

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LeonhartFour
03/17/20 7:35:34 PM
#300:


MetalmindStats posted...
I thought it was well-known that the Gamespot merger and the invigoration of vote totals it produced was what caused the Nintendo boost of 2005, but maybe the B8 wiki is letting me down there.

I don't feel like that was a widespread theory, no.

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