Board 8 > Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXI: Final Results [smfffc]

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Page List: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
GuessMyUserName
11/10/19 11:13:48 PM
#201:


wait that uses the overall smfffc contest stats doesn't it

bot post ustats for smfffc run 21
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Mothra
11/10/19 11:14:15 PM
#202:


USTATS of contest:SMFFFC run:21
1. SockoDeus: 3,316-pt (66.36%)
2. FBike1: 3,093-pt (70.32%)
3. bwburke94: 3,063-pt (66.63%)
4. captaincanadian: 3,017-pt (64.21%)
5. Janus5k: 2,908-pt (67.65%)
6. Xuxon: 2,799-pt (68.32%)
7. yellowwolley: 2,775-pt (71.18%)
8. GuessMyUserName: 2,765-pt (61.47%)
9. TheArkOfTurus: 2,726-pt (69.92%)
10. StifledSilence: 2,722-pt (69.85%)
11. mnkboy907: 2,677-pt (72.35%)
12. KommunistKoala: 2,661-pt (64.93%)
13. MartinFF7: 2,577-pt (64.47%)
14. Nanis23: 2,566-pt (67.55%)
15. PlasmaKappa: 2,564-pt (65.77%)
16. Bane_Of_Despair: 2,533-pt (66.68%)
17. tennisboy213: 2,501-pt (67.62%)
18. th3l3fty: 2,443-pt (64.32%)
19. swordz9: 2,416-pt (71.09%)
20. Inviso: 2,368-pt (60.74%)
21. Mewtwo59: 2,365-pt (69.56%)
22. BetrayedTangy: 2,341-pt (68.88%)
23. pjbasis: 2,312-pt (74.58%)
24. Shaduln: 2,293-pt (69.52%)
25. Eddv: 2,242-pt (65.97%)
26. vcharon: 2,164-pt (65.61%)
27. VeryInsane: 2,164-pt (69.81%)
28. Denzokuken: 2,135-pt (73.62%)
29. red13n: 2,013-pt (77.46%)
30. Leanansidhe: 2,008-pt (71.79%)
31. TheKnightOfNee: 2,000-pt (66.67%)
32. greengravy294: 1,985-pt (70.93%)
33. Sir Chris: 1,916-pt (73.69%)
34. Whiskey_Nick: 1,885-pt (78.58%)
35. GenesisSaga: 1,685-pt (67.44%)
36. KleenexTissue50: 1,685-pt (73.30%)
37. Maniac64: 1,660-pt (72.17%)
38. Drakeryn: 1,616-pt (64.68%)
39. Evillordexdeath: 1,553-pt (81.74%)
40. kbmusiclover: 1,503-pt (75.20%)
41. Steinershocker: 1,470-pt (70.00%)
42. Lopen: 1,377-pt (68.90%)
43. guffguy89: 1,367-pt (68.35%)
44. darkx: 1,309-pt (68.89%)
45. Arti: 1,302-pt (65.15%)
46. WhiteLens: 1,258-pt (62.90%)
47. Zigzagoon: 1,254-pt (89.57%)
48. illuminatusbubu: 1,216-pt (67.61%)
49. JonPen1416: 1,185-pt (74.06%)
50. Robazoid: 1,176-pt (90.46%)
51. PrinceKaro: 1,144-pt (63.56%)
52. ecksgem: 1,075-pt (63.24%)
53. TomNook: 1,057-pt (88.08%)
54. MZero11: 1,036-pt (64.75%)
55. barreldragon88: 1,015-pt (92.27%)
56. TexWolf_1729: 1,015-pt (63.50%)
57. cyan1001: 940-pt (72.31%)
58. Great_Paul: 918-pt (91.80%)
59. X_Dante_X: 884-pt (68.00%)
60. MichaelWClark: 876-pt (73.00%)
61. junk_funk: 854-pt (77.64%)
62. Pokalicious: 785-pt (87.22%)
63. SaveEstelle: 766-pt (95.75%)
64. BlueCrystalTear: 753-pt (83.67%)
65. Luis_Sera89: 641-pt (42.87%)
66. Wedge Antilles: 599-pt (85.57%)
67. Chaeix: 590-pt (84.29%)
68. Team Rocket Elite: 579-pt (96.50%)
69. Commodore: 565-pt (80.71%)
70. Shonen_Bat: 491-pt (81.83%)
71. BlackDra90n: 486-pt (54.00%)
72. BK_Sheikah00: 387-pt (96.75%)
73. DoctorBIind: 364-pt (91.00%)
74. Snake5555555555: 326-pt (46.71%)
75. XIII_rocks: 301-pt (60.20%)
76. My Immortal: 293-pt (97.67%)
77. __LeiaRolando__: 271-pt (67.75%)
78. profDEADPOOL: 224-pt (74.67%)
79. FFDragon: 196-pt (98.00%)
80. Natwaf_akidna: 196-pt (65.33%)
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Mothra
11/10/19 11:14:18 PM
#203:


81. User728: 196-pt (98.00%)
82. WiggumFan267: 174-pt (87.00%)
83. JONALEON1: 170-pt (42.50%)
84. Wicklebee: 170-pt (28.50%)
85. MysticBrohan: 151-pt (75.50%)
86. Pokewars: 132-pt (44.00%)
87. ZenOfThunder: 108-pt (36.00%)
88. ertyu0078: 100-pt (100.00%)
89. Ijustworkhere: 100-pt (100.00%)
90. Wheresthetacos: 100-pt (100.00%)
91. _stingers_: 100-pt (100.00%)
92. MetalmindStats: 98-pt (98.00%)
93. Axl_Rose_85: 93-pt (93.00%)
94. Moonroof: 93-pt (93.00%)
95. ZeeksFire: 87-pt (87.00%)
96. Suprak the Stud: 85-pt (85.00%)
97. kateee: 55-pt (55.00%)
98. MarquessLaus: 52-pt (52.00%)
99. Hannyabal: 34-pt (34.00%)
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pjbasis
11/10/19 11:20:22 PM
#204:


Bane_Of_Despair posted...
I honestly still can't grasp the whole idea of being anti-repeat winner when the repeat winner in question was like a decade ago


Uh just like pure pettiness really.
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v_charon
11/10/19 11:21:14 PM
#205:


swordz9 posted...
upset at failing yet another year


Good to know.
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:>
Truly smilin'
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GuessMyUserName
11/10/19 11:22:34 PM
#206:


... hrm I guess I gotta rework that command because that's all definitely incorrect and doesn't match up with the Records page...

if I were to guess I suppose it's not filtering one of the data pulls to the SMFFFC Run 1 like it should but whatever I'll fix that in my private board then
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LiquidOshawott
11/10/19 11:23:30 PM
#207:


Bane_Of_Despair posted...
I honestly still can't grasp the whole idea of being anti-repeat winner when the repeat winner in question was like a decade ago


I feel like its like sports

do you really want to see the Patriots or Yankees win all the time, or is it better for other teams to win to mix it up?

---
I live on, THROUGH THIS SEASHELL!
VI
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Bane_Of_Despair
11/10/19 11:24:56 PM
#208:


but...it's not....all the time?
---
You were the cancer, that's all you'll ever be
...and when the Clouds cleared,Advokaiser stood alone as CBX Guru Champ
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v_charon
11/10/19 11:25:00 PM
#209:


Most normal people wouldn't mind one championship per decade I doubt, or refer to that as some high level of dominance. Auron hasn't even made the top 20 since he won; he isn't the Patriots or Yankees. Not like he gets to the playoffs every year, or really, ever.
---
:>
Truly smilin'
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GuessMyUserName
11/10/19 11:26:48 PM
#210:


oh right since this is the first SMFFFC I've logged all saves in, here's a FUNFACT

we made 13,703 saves in this one contest

if I made a bot post 1 save every 20 minutes, by the time all saves have been posted noms'll be up for XXII~
---
I request affiliated many pipes.
Been a bad girl, I know I am. And I'm so hot, I need a fan. I don't want a boy, I need a man.
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DoomTheGyarados
11/10/19 11:32:40 PM
#211:


My stance is anyone is welcome to push anything they want, just don't expect me to want to see it too.

Vivi a third time, Auron, Edgar, whatever. All good with me, I will just happily anti-vote them in the finals because there are a lot of characters looking for their first.

Currently plotting for Seymour.

---
Sir Chris
Doom The Kanto Saga - Animated Series - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hH4wNFCrLM
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swordz9
11/10/19 11:32:59 PM
#212:


Keep in mind I expected this final to be a lot closer given how many people are anti-Lightning and how many have enjoyed propaganda in the past. It didnt end up turning out close, but the potential fear was there.
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Mewtwo59
11/10/19 11:35:38 PM
#213:


swordz9 posted...
Keep in mind I expected this final to be a lot closer given how many people are anti-Lightning and how many have enjoyed propaganda in the past. It didnt end up turning out close, but the potential fear was there.


Yeah, this is why I say it's silly to say that Edward would beat most of the top 10. Even with the propaganda and getting an opponent people love to anti-vote, he got blown out. He had so many things going in his favor and he still never had a chance.

---
""Love" is making a shot to the knees of a target 120 kilometers away using an Aratech sniper rifle with a tri-light scope." HK-47
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MZero11
11/10/19 11:39:34 PM
#214:


FFDragon posted...
Vivi vs. Locke (CXVIII) - SEETHING former winner hate. And it burns twice as much since he did it against a legitimately good character.


And we were robbed of the Lockemotive final when Doomtrain went out in 3rd :(

---
MZero, to the extreme
Listen to Advokaiser's bracket, this may be our last chance
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MartinFF7
11/10/19 11:48:41 PM
#215:


It's always nice to see new winners too, but yeah it doesn't really make sense all the time, like Cecil wins now and he last won 20 contests ago, that's like... barely a repeat.

But I also ran afoul of immediately backing things that had previously won in Anime & Disney so I know the resistance. Happened before I ever participated, so it's new to me though!

Since I crunched compatibility stats (based on top 15 rankings) I did most & least compatible stats for everyone, just throwing them in an image:

https://i.imgur.com/EWxKGMi.png

I guess some users show up in the most & least more often due to... extra uniqueness in their rankings.

FFD's compatibilities being "Most" with GMUN and "Least" with me is also kind of perfect, lol.
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MartinFF7
11/10/19 11:57:26 PM
#216:


swordz9 posted...
Who was booted and is eligible for nominations again next year?


Last year's hard boots:

86. Rinoa Heartilly
87. Kain Highwind
88. Ultros
89. Bartz Klauser
90. Gau
91. Echo
92. Seifer Almasy
93. Prompto Argentum
94. Dangerous Ariana
95. Y'shtola
96. Iris Amicitia
97. Hakutaro Inaba
98. Rapha Galthena
99. Shadow
100. Ultimecia

This year's soft boots:

76. Reno
77. Interceptor
78. Ashelia "Ashe" B'nargin Dalmasca
79. Basch fon Ronsenburg
80. Dr. Mog
81. Lulu
82. Beatrix
83. Elena
84. Golbez
85. Setzer Gabbiani

And just for the heck of it, the 25 new (or re-) entrants and how they finished (sorted ascending)

2 - Edward Chris von Muir
3 - Auron
11 - Quina Quen
13 - Goffard Gaffgarion
18 - Braska
23 - Delita Hyral
25 - Jecht
28 - Cidolfus Orlandeau
29 - Agns Oblige
30 - Leon
33 - Gaius van Baelsar
35 - Tiz Arrior
41 - Edgar Roni Figaro
47 - Zell Dincht
52 - Agrias Oaks
53 - Paine
56 - Leblanc
58 - Zenos yae Galvus
61 - Locke Cole
72 - Doctor Cid
74 - Hildibrand Manderville
75 - Estinien Wyrmblood
76 - Reno
79 - Basch fon Ronsenburg
92 - Selphie Tilmitt

2/25 soft and 1/25 hard boots, pretty good odds.
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pjbasis
11/10/19 11:58:00 PM
#217:


wow there's 4 users who have 1. Kefka 2. Squall

At least I know who to blame
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FFDragon
11/11/19 12:07:29 AM
#218:


MZero11 posted...
And we were robbed of the Lockemotive final when Doomtrain went out in 3rd :(


ffffffffffffffffffuuuuuuuuuuuuuu-------
---
If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person?
#theresafreakingghostafterus
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pjbasis
11/11/19 12:09:37 AM
#219:


I'm sorry but Locke was just good enough to support.
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mnkboy907
11/11/19 2:14:52 AM
#220:


Mothra posted...
Here's what you can do...

[*]Bot Summon: bot where's [bot]?
[*]Bot Say: bot say [sentence]
[*]Alt Register: #REGISTER:[alt]#
[*]Alt Confirm: #CONFIRM:[main]#
[*]Poor...: poor [word/phrase]
[*]Bot Pick: bot pick [opt1] or [opt2] or[...]
[*]Praise Bot: good bot
[*]Insult Bot: bad bot
[*]Rank Things: bot rank these \n[obj1]\n[obj2]
[*]Something: something
[*]Ban Account: #ban:[user]#
[*]Quote User: bot quote [user]
[*]Add Results: #add results:[contest_result][...]#
[*]Add BotQuote: #quote:[bot]\n[line]#
[*]GRAPH: #GRAPH: [type:[type];] [plot:[plot];] [mode:[mode];] [contest:[[!]contest];] [run:[[>][<][=]run];] [round:[[>][<][=]round];] #
[*]Count Your Saves: how much have i saved ?(from)? [save/source]
[*]Who Does ___ Save?: who does [user] save(in [contest]( run [run])(round [round]))(, up to [amount_to_list])
[*]What Does ___ Save?: what does [user] save(in [contest]( run [run])(round [round]))(, up to [amount_to_list])
[*]Who Saves ___?: who saves (from) [save/source](in [contest]( run [run])(round [round]))(, up to [amount_to_list])
[*]STATS Request: gimme stats for [save](, sorted)
[*]USTATS Request: user stats for [user](, up to [amount_to_list])
[*]Full USTATS: bot post ustats( for [contest]( run [run])(,( from [list_from_num])( to [list_to_num]))(, sorted)
[*]Locate Chatbot: where's chatbot
[chat]Shoo Bot: go away bot

Hmm...

#ban:GuessMyUsername#
---
Change is weird.
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Mothra
11/11/19 2:15:16 AM
#221:


[sentence]

Confirmed [mnkboy907] as an alt of [main]!Registered alt [alt] to main [mnkboy907]. Please confirm on the alt!yes, poor [word/phrase]...

[opt2] or[...] :D

good mnkboy907 _

no u mnkboy907

Let's see...

1. [*]Full USTATS: bot post ustats( for [contest]( run [run])(,( from [list_from_num])( to [list_to_num]))(, sorted)
2. [*]Count Your Saves: how much have i saved ?(from)? [save/source]
3. [*]Ban Account: #ban:[user]#
4. [*]Who Does ___ Save?: who does [user] save(in [contest]( run [run])(round [round]))(, up to [amount_to_list])
5. Hmm...
6. [*]Add BotQuote: #quote:[bot]\n[line]#
7. [*]Quote User: bot quote [user]
8. [*]Something: something
9. [*]Add Results: #add results:[contest_result][...]#
10. [*]STATS Request: gimme stats for [save](, sorted)
11. [chat]Shoo Bot: go away bot

12. [*]What Does ___ Save?: what does [user] save(in [contest]( run [run])(round [round]))(, up to [amount_to_list])
13. \n[obj1]\n[obj2]
14. #ban:GuessMyUsername#
15. [*]GRAPH: #GRAPH: [type:[type];] [plot:[plot];] [mode:[mode];] [contest:[[!]contest];] [run:[[>][<][=]run];] [round:[[>][<][=]round];] #
16. [*]Who Saves ___?: who saves (from) [save/source](in [contest]( run [run])(round [round]))(, up to [amount_to_list])
17. [*]USTATS Request: user stats for [user](, up to [amount_to_list])
18. [*]Locate Chatbot: where's chatbot

... yeah?

Mosuraaaaaa...YA! Mosuraaa...

Grimlyn summoned Mothra over here: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gmun_bot/78150324?page=1#94

Okay, I'll go...

... Are you sure ___ has saved?... Are you sure ___ has saved?... Are you sure ___ has saved?USTATS of contest:[ALL] run:[all]
1. GuessMyUserName: 13,905-pt (51.74%)
2. kateee: 9,581-pt (55.83%)
3. Mewtwo59: 9,526-pt (57.81%)
4. darkx: 8,903-pt (58.25%)
5. mnkboy907: 8,825-pt (50.58%)
6. Bane_Of_Despair: 8,506-pt (55.33%)
7. Janus5k: 7,797-pt (57.36%)
8. TexWolf_1729: 7,176-pt (55.23%)
9. pjbasis: 7,135-pt (57.08%)
10. Robazoid: 7,056-pt (53.50%)
11. Inviso: 6,825-pt (54.22%)
12. tennisboy213: 6,742-pt (63.43%)
13. Drakeryn: 6,677-pt (54.73%)
14. VeryInsane: 6,602-pt (52.06%)
15. Xuxon: 6,409-pt (55.24%)
16. Shonen_Bat: 6,258-pt (58.93%)
17. MartinFF7: 5,942-pt (58.17%)
18. FBike1: 5,281-pt (59.83%)
19. red13n: 5,015-pt (65.61%)
20. garetha200: 4,795-pt (59.71%)
21. Tom Bombadil: 4,783-pt (62.59%)
22. yellowwolley: 4,560-pt (54.78%)
23. KleenexTissue50: 4,267-pt (56.62%)
24. MetalmindStats: 4,124-pt (62.97%)
25. BlackDra90n: 4,019-pt (58.74%)
26. Lopen: 3,928-pt (59.97%)
27. WhiteLens: 3,668-pt (56.83%)
28. MZero11: 3,605-pt (55.95%)
29. KommunistKoala: 3,592-pt (61.31%)
30. swordz9: 3,440-pt (65.38%)
31. MichaelWClark: 3,305-pt (55.59%)
32. illuminatusbubu: 3,176-pt (61.55%)
33. hylianknight3: 3,085-pt (63.33%)
34. cyan1001: 2,992-pt (55.89%)
35. Yankees: 2,974-pt (56.63%)
36. Pirate_Harris: 2,953-pt (48.08%)
37. Zigzagoon: 2,913-pt (69.85%)
38. kenrmcha: 2,891-pt (60.68%)
39. bwburke94: 2,853-pt (58.73%)
40. ecksgem: 2,836-pt (52.08%)
41. SockoDeus: 2,805-pt (56.65%)
42. captaincanadian: 2,796-pt (58.74%)
43. greengravy294: 2,795-pt (58.64%)
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mnkboy907
11/11/19 2:16:34 AM
#222:


good bot
---
Change is weird.
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MartinFF7
11/11/19 2:30:53 AM
#223:


Okay, more analysis, a little breakfast-and-morning-coffee reading for when y'all wake up.

The age-old question: who wins an Auron/Lightning final

If we just look at the people who hit max (non-DK) saves, Lightning outnumbered Edward 32-20

If we look at those 52 users and also include:
-GMUN
-Steiner
-MetalmindStats
-pjbasis
-SaveEstelle
-barreldragon88
-Bane_Of_Despair
-mnkboy
-Shaduln
-Axl_Rose_85

so assuming 62 users at 10 saves. The above all assumed 10x Auron except for SaveEstelle who goes 10x Lightning. Axl is the only non-finals-saver who is assumed to be a new saver in this scenario based on his posted disdain for Lightning (and Edward).

Based on my assumptions, per final 3 voting patterns and top 15 preference rankings, I've got then even at 27-27.

Lightning (27): BK_Sheikah00, BlueCrystalTear, captaincanadian, Denzokuken, DoomTheGyrados, Eddv, illuminatusbubu, Inviso, Janus5k, JonPen1416, junk_funk, Leanansidhe, Lopen, Luis_Sera89, MartinFF7, Natwaf_akidna, Robazoid, SaveEstelle, Shonen_Bat, swordz9, TexWolf_1729, th3l3fty, The Mana Sword, TomNook, WhiteLens, Xuxon, yellowwolley

Auron (27): Arti, Axl_Rose_85, Bane_Of_Despair, barreldragon88, Drakeryn, ecksgem, GenesisSaga, Great_Paul, GuessMyUserName, guffguy89, KommunistKoala, Maniac64, MetalMindStats, Mewtwo59, mnkboy907, MZero11, pjbasis, Shaduln, Sockoress, Steiner, StifledSilence, Team Rocket Elite, tennisboy213, TheArkOfTurus, vcharon, VengefulKaelee, VeryInsane

The remaining 8 users are not immediately certain:

BetrayedTangy
Bossman Coolguy
bwburke94
FFDragon
Nanis23
PlasmaKappa
PrinceKaro
Underleveled

Strong suspicions on which way some of them would lean but still not sure, for example BetrayedTangy had Lightning ranked higher than Edward in his top 15 rankings but went 10x on Edward so who knows...

In any case, if those 8 users break evenly, then it comes down to the non-max savers. Lightning has a default +23 non-max advantage in this scenario:
-She had 34 saves from non-max savers and 30 of them would've been the same even in a Lightning/Auron final based on past saving patterns (MWC, Commodore, DoctorBlind, KnightofNee, TotallyNotMI, Whiskey Nick)
-Excluding the names added into the "also include" list, Edward only had 8 non-max saves and 7 are safely assumed to go to Auron (Chaeix x2, cyan1001 x5)

So Auron would really need 5 of the 8 "unknowns" to break for him which - all things being equal, including non-max save assumptions - would put things at 330 Lightning, 327 Auron.

So then it would come down to the new variables:
-Having "Auron" in the finale topic title could pull in more casuals, just need one more Axl_Rose-type to make the difference there
-Previous Auron savers who no-saved the finals could show up (eg WiggumFan267, Wedge Antilles, Pokalicious)
-The non-max Lightning savers, seeing a close final, could put in the extra effort to hit their max saves (which could be as many as 30 additional saves among those 6 users)
-Chaeix and cyan could also put in more saves to hit 10x for Auron
-Any incorrect assumptions I made on the 27-27 user breakdown...

All of this also assumes nobody puts saves on both Lightning and Auron, which is right there in the rules but I've never seen happen in my two years participating...

So in conclusion: maybe Lightning squeaks it out with more saves from a close match, maybe Auron does with his name pulling in net-new casuals... still far too close to call imo!!!
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Robazoid
11/11/19 2:40:45 AM
#224:


FFD said he'd have gone Never Lightning over No Repeats so Lightning loses right there, I think.
---
**R.O.B.A.Z.O.I.D**
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MartinFF7
11/11/19 2:43:44 AM
#225:


What!! I thought he said he'd never support repeats. Damn!

Okay let me just throw him in the unknown category and edit this post again while I still have time.
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Robazoid
11/11/19 2:49:01 AM
#226:


Well the exact quote is "I'm 95% certain my soul would have torn towards #NeverLightning had he gotten there."
---
**R.O.B.A.Z.O.I.D**
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MartinFF7
11/11/19 2:50:49 AM
#227:


All we need is that spark of a 5% to melt his frozen heart and see the LIGHT OF JUSTICE!

Really I kind of want to summon those unknowns to get their verdicts but maybe it is better just leaving things unknown... though I've already gone this far.
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Eddv
11/11/19 2:55:52 AM
#228:


I wouldnt have gotten all of my saves in for lightning

---
Board 8's Voice of Reason
https://imgur.com/AWY4xHy
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MZero11
11/11/19 3:05:18 AM
#229:


I would have saved Lightning over Auron actually

---
MZero, to the extreme
Listen to Advokaiser's bracket, this may be our last chance
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MartinFF7
11/11/19 3:06:18 AM
#230:


Eddv posted...
I wouldnt have gotten all of my saves in for lightning

Edit #2: wow I totally misread this. Eddv screwing over Lightning again eh... let me just dump you into the unknown category for good measure.

Edit #1: hi MZero. I'm actually gonna delete and re-post that just because.
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MartinFF7
11/11/19 3:09:09 AM
#231:


Okay, more analysis, a little breakfast-and-morning-coffee reading for when y'all wake up.

The age-old question: who wins an Auron/Lightning final

If we just look at the people who hit max (non-DK) saves, Lightning outnumbered Edward 32-20

If we look at those 52 users and also include:
-GMUN
-Steiner
-MetalmindStats
-pjbasis
-SaveEstelle
-barreldragon88
-Bane_Of_Despair
-mnkboy
-Shaduln
-Axl_Rose_85

so assuming 62 users at 10 saves. The above all assumed 10x Auron except for SaveEstelle who goes 10x Lightning. Axl is the only non-finals-saver who is assumed to be a new saver in this scenario based on his posted disdain for Lightning (and Edward).

Based on my assumptions, per final 3 voting patterns and top 15 preference rankings, I've got then even at 26-26.

Lightning (26): BK_Sheikah00, BlueCrystalTear, captaincanadian, Denzokuken, DoomTheGyrados, illuminatusbubu, Inviso, JonPen1416, junk_funk, Leanansidhe, Lopen, Luis_Sera89, MartinFF7, MZero11, Natwaf_akidna, Robazoid, SaveEstelle, Shonen_Bat, swordz9, TexWolf_1729, th3l3fty, The Mana Sword, TomNook, WhiteLens, Xuxon, yellowwolley

Auron (26): Arti, Axl_Rose_85, Bane_Of_Despair, barreldragon88, Drakeryn, ecksgem, GenesisSaga, Great_Paul, GuessMyUserName, guffguy89, KommunistKoala, Maniac64, MetalMindStats, Mewtwo59, mnkboy907, pjbasis, Shaduln, Sockoress, Steiner, StifledSilence, Team Rocket Elite, tennisboy213, TheArkOfTurus, vcharon, VengefulKaelee, VeryInsane

The remaining 10 users are not immediately certain:

BetrayedTangy
Bossman Coolguy
bwburke94
Eddv
FFDragon
Janus5k
Nanis23
PlasmaKappa
PrinceKaro
Underleveled

Strong suspicions on which way some of them would lean but still not sure, for example BetrayedTangy had Lightning ranked higher than Edward in his top 15 rankings but went 10x on Edward so who knows...

In any case, if those users break evenly between the two of them then it comes down to the non-max savers. Lightning has a default +23 non-max advantage in this scenario:
-She had 34 saves from non-max savers and 30 of them would've been the same even in a Lightning/Auron final based on past saving patterns (MWC, Commodore, DoctorBlind, KnightofNee, TotallyNotMI, Whiskey Nick)
-Excluding the names added into the "also include" list, Edward had 8 non-max saves and 7 are safely assumed to go to Auron (Chaeix x2, cyan1001 x5)

So Auron would really need 6 of the 10 "unknowns" to break for him which - all things being equal, including non-max save assumptions - puts things at 330 Lightning, 327 Auron.

So then it would come down to the new variables:
-Having "Auron" in the finale topic title could pull in more casuals, just need one more Axl_Rose-type to make the difference there
-Previous Auron savers who no-saved the finals could show up (eg WiggumFan267, Wedge Antilles, Pokalicious)
-The non-max Lightning savers, seeing a close final, could put in the extra effort to hit their max saves (which could be as many as 30 additional saves among those 6 users)
-Chaeix and cyan could also put in more saves to hit 10x for Auron (at most 13 saves between them)
-Any incorrect assumptions I made on the 26-26 user breakdown...

All of this also assumes nobody puts saves on both Lightning and Auron, which is right there in the rules but I've never seen happen in my two years participating...

So in conclusion: maybe Lightning squeaks it out with more saves from a close match, maybe Auron does with his name pulling in net-new casuals... still far too close to call imo!!!
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GenesisSaga
11/11/19 10:02:27 AM
#232:


FFDragon posted...
Mothra asking the hard hitting questions.

And when you've seen all those wins personally, it doesn't matter if they were today or 2007 imo

And when you've seen none of those wins personally it burns that people will cock block you from ever seeing them happen because #NoRepeats or whatever.

This was Auron's first top 20 appearance since his victory over a decade ago. He's my 6th favorite character. My actual #2 Balthier can't even make it out of the boot phase. It blows I'll never get to see them do as well as Tidus because of scrubs that have been playing longer than I have.

Oh well. If only Vivi was in my top 5...
---
"If you never spread your wings, how can you know whether or not you are truly meant to fly?" - ME!!
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pjbasis
11/11/19 10:18:22 AM
#233:


wow my number 1 still hasn't won yet but people are complaining that their number 2-6s

such privilege
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FFDragon
11/11/19 10:21:44 AM
#234:


According to GMUN the #NoRepeats peeps aren't actually a big deal these days.

Still is my personal preference though.
---
If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person?
#theresafreakingghostafterus
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The Mana Sword
11/11/19 10:27:11 AM
#235:


All aboard the #AllRepeats train

Who's up for a top 20 next year of

Cecil
Rydia
Gilgamesh
Celes
Edgar
Cloud
Reno
Zack
Zell
Kuja
Steiner
Vivi
Zidane
Auron
Lulu
Tidus
Balthier
Fang
Lightning
Marche
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Steiner
11/11/19 10:29:27 AM
#236:


Better than no repeats
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Advokaiser makes me feel eternal. All this pain is an illusion.
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Drakeryn
11/11/19 10:30:47 AM
#237:


The Mana Sword posted...
All aboard the #AllRepeats train

Who's up for a top 20 next year of

Cloud
Reno
Zack
Zell
Kuja
Vivi
Auron
Tidus
Balthier

better than most top 20s tbh
---
another place and time, without a great divide, and we could be flying deadly high
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bwburke94
11/11/19 10:36:35 AM
#238:


For the record, I would have gone Auron>Lightning.
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I am not defined by another man's shadow.
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Grimlyn
11/11/19 10:37:00 AM
#239:


a Top 11 of #2s Only

Tifa
Terra
Sabin
Yuffie
Ashe
Squall
Kefka
Locke
Laguna
Cid P
Edward
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https://gmun.moe/ffcc
GuessMyUserName's account's very own account!
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LiquidOshawott
11/11/19 10:41:55 AM
#240:


Well you cant do Balthier since he got hard booted

guess Vivi has to take two slots

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I live on, THROUGH THIS SEASHELL!
VI
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GenesisSaga
11/11/19 12:00:19 PM
#241:


FFDragon posted...
According to GMUN the #NoRepeats peeps aren't actually a big deal these days.

Still is my personal preference though.

Both of you must have mentally checked out for the top 3 of this very contest then. It's cool though. The way the final two rounds went down was a buncha Shoopuf shit, so I checked out mentally afterwards too!
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"If you never spread your wings, how can you know whether or not you are truly meant to fly?" - ME!!
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Lopen
11/11/19 12:01:49 PM
#242:


Not sure that was norepeats as much as a combination of comic voters and Lightning voters wanting the easiest goat
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
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Grimlyn
11/11/19 12:38:02 PM
#243:


https://i.imgur.com/EUh79Pm.jpg
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https://gmun.moe/ffcc
GuessMyUserName's account's very own account!
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illuminatusbubu
11/11/19 2:02:20 PM
#244:


I would like everyone who helps voting for Lightning. I don't want to list all the names because I'm sure I will probably miss some names but you should know who you are.

I have made Lightning as my main since CXVI and last year, with all the Year of XIII, I think it will be my last time maining Lightning no matter what happen. As you know, the lawyering happened and I can't let it end like that, so I will give it one last push this year. Luckily, she finally gets her win.

Now that I'm free from Lightning, I'm willing to join whatever project anyone has next year if it is interesting, especially, if the character is from the game that haven't won yet or haven't won for a long time. I know I might not be persuasive like other people as I tend to lurking around the board without typing much but I think I'm a pretty reliable and solid hand to help whatever character you want.

MartinFF7 posted...
Another user was curious where your username came from and I am too, if you don't mind our asking?


There's nothing much to it really. When I made the account, I was in middle school and liked to read about secret society a lot. I think it started from when I read "Angels & Demons" by Dan Brown which mentioned the Illuminati hence the illuminatus part in my name. The bubu part is actually my nickname that my friends used to call me. It used to be Buubuu since the name came from Majin Buu but, after a while, I shortened it to Bubu since I'm too lazy to write/type u multiple time.
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Robazoid
11/11/19 2:05:40 PM
#245:


illuminatusbubu posted...
Now that I'm free from Lightning, I'm willing to join whatever project anyone has next year if it is interesting, especially, if the character is from the game that haven't won yet or haven't won for a long time.

FFX-2 hasn't won yet! We could use your help in the YRP run two years from now.
---
**R.O.B.A.Z.O.I.D**
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Lopen
11/11/19 2:15:09 PM
#246:


Let's just nominate Ormi and Logos and do a Leblanc Syndicate run next year instead
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
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Eddv
11/11/19 2:20:37 PM
#247:


Faris Schweriz time

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Board 8's Voice of Reason
https://imgur.com/AWY4xHy
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th3l3fty
11/11/19 2:37:15 PM
#248:


last win chart

0 contests: XIII
2 contests: VII
3 contests: IX
5 contests: X
6 contests: IV
8 contests: TA
10 contests: V
11 contests: VIII
13 contests: XII
15 contests: VI
never: I, II, III, XI, XIV, XV, all non-TA non-numbered games
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -transience
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
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The Mana Sword
11/11/19 2:38:28 PM
#249:


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mnkboy907
11/11/19 2:39:04 PM
#250:


I always knew FFVI was unpopular.
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Change is weird.
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