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TopicTsunami's Post-Contest Analysis (should not need a second topic)
TsunamiXXVIII
04/22/20 8:01:56 PM
#105:


Match 88: Animal Crossing: New Leaf vs. Red Dead Redemption 2

AC:NL 11095
RDR2 15080

So, uh...Animal Crossing is legit, huh?

This was a kind of underwhelming performance by what I presume, based on the prediction percentages for the first two rounds, is the casuals' favorite in Round 3. I mean, maybe it isn't, since the trio of New Leaf, Street Fighter V, and Dying Light really shouldn't have been able to stop it, while Portal 2 had to deal with Tomb Raider in round 1 and Kingdom Hearts III in Round 2. But we're dealing with almost 70% vs. barely over 50%. Unless Portal 2's R3 prediction percentage is over 75% of its R2 prediction percentage, one would have to figure that RDR2 would have the plurality even if Portal 2/Tomb Raider/KH3/Disco Elysium has the overall majority over RDR2/ACNL/SFV/DL.

I'll admit, I screwed this one up in Oracle but not in Guru. I had RDR2 > SFV in Guru, but I was impressed enough by New Leaf's win over SFV that I backed it in Oracle. Apparently SFV is just that bad. See, I told you that always picking against Capcom was a good idea!

Match 89: Dark Souls vs. Rocket League

Dark Souls 18921
Rocket League 5544

Let's just go back to laughing at the guy who said he was going to rally for Rocket League last round. This was a huge fall-off from the previous day's vote totals, and IIRC one of the main Tumblrs that started the whole Undertale fiasco in 2015 was a self-professed Dark Souls fan first and foremost. Why she decided to rally for Undertale instead of Dark Souls is beyond me, but whatever. Point is, Dark Souls is going to be filthy in this contest if it needs to be.

Match 90: Yakuza 0 vs. Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain

Yakuza 0 10462
MGSV 14011

Man Metal Gear has fallen hard. This is a very strong performance by Yakuza 0, showing that it's a game far stronger than its characters, who were nothing short of atrocious in 2018. This would set up a rematch of a somewhat debated 2015 match, except the only debate this time would be just how much more lopsided it would be (the 2015 match wasn't terribly lopsided at all--Dark Souls only won with 55.4%. I'd be surprised if it doesn't exceed that by a full 10%.)

Match 91: Batman: Arkham City vs. BioShock Infinite

B:AC 14637
BSI 9832

Well, my Arkham City > The Last of Us upset loves this result...but my Three Houses > Xenoblade Chronicles not-upset is scared shitless! (No, I still don't know why I picked Arkham City > Last of Us, and it's a moot point because I wouldn't have picked Dark Souls over the Last of Us, either, so I'd have lost the R4 points either way.) Arkham City did better against BioShock Infinite than against Xenoblade 2. Is Xenoblade 2 any good? I might have to check it out. The first one seemed like it was promising from a story aspect but I just couldn't get past the janky battle system. Give me a traditional turn-based RPG any day, but failing that, if you're going to give me an ARPG, give me a goddamn attack button!

So, yeah, turns out BioShock isn't that strong any more. 2013 certainly provided some hints with Big Daddy losing to Lloyd Irving and the Infinite characters not being worth much of anything, but the series' decline was hidden by both games in the bracket (the original and Infinite) being in the SMRPG quarter. BioShock had a close loss to Division 8 champ MGS3, while Infinite had a decent match with Fallout: New Vegas, which in turn broke 41% on RE4. Arkham City is, apparently, still fairly decent, and I expect it to give a good match next round.

Match 92: Diablo III vs. The Last of Us

Diablo III 8989
The Last of Us 15488

The Last of Us winning this match was never in question; faulty as the 2015 X-Stats may be, they suggest it to be slightly stronger than Diablo II. Now, Diablo III was not a terribly well-received game at all, so I'd expect the strength gap between Diablo II and Diablo III to be tremendous. We're only a few matches removed from a "III" losing to a game that its "II" beats handily in those X-Stats. I'm going to drag them out again:

The Last of Us (2015g) VS Diablo 2 (2015g)

The Last of Us has a strength of 27.36.
Diablo 2 has a strength of 27.23.

The Last of Us wins with 50.24% of the vote!
A win of 289 with 60,875 total votes cast.

Portal 2 (2015g) VS Kingdom Hearts 2 (2015g)

Portal 2 has a strength of 23.30.
Kingdom Hearts 2 has a strength of 34.22.

Kingdom Hearts 2 wins with 65.96% of the vote!
A win of 19,426 with 60,875 total votes cast.

Diablo III is worth 36.72% on a game that Diablo II is worth 49.76% on, but KH III is worth 37.64% on a game that KH II is worth 65.96% on. ...How? This isn't even about KH3 losing that match anymore, though I am still baffled by that; the idea of KH3 being worth less on KH2 than Diablo 3 is on Diablo 2 (pre-SFF adjustments) is alien in its own right. I'm sure there will be a lengthy diatribe on this PCA anyway since I think this is the last Blizzard game to leave the contest, and I have to say...Bobby Kotick could walk down Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and not lose any supporters. That's really all I can liken it to; Blizzard has its consumers by the balls.

The "Disney just buys Squeenix" idea I proposed last round is looking better and better all the time. Someone has to save them from themselves, and the idea of Square's properties being part of the Disney/Marvel/Star Wars stable is oddly appealing. Though given what happened when they tried to have Kingdom Hearts characters as walkarounds at the theme parks, they might need to work out a few kinks.

Costumed Moogles might be fun, though, assuming that any of the younger fans would even know what a Moogle was.

Edit: Upon reading responses to my previous reviews, I have discovered that, yes, KH3 really was that big a disappointment. Upon doing some research of my own, I discovered that, no worries, "the kiddies" would know what Moogles were. They were in KH3. Part of the problem was that they were the only Final Fantasy characters in KH3, though the inevitable rerelease only a year later is said to have more. Good lord Square Enix really needs to be saved from themselves.

Doesn't change what I said about Blizzard, though. If Square fans were half as blindly loyal as Blizzard fans, KH3 beats Portal 2 easily and actually might be a sexy upset pick against Persona 5. Square releases a game and then makes you pay full price for what amounts to the same game with DLC, and their fans are rightfully pissed. They've been doing this over and over, too, with Kingdom Hear
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