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Topic	Tsunami's Post-Contest Analysis (should not need a second topic)
TsunamiXXVIII 04/22/20 5:56:27 PM #101:	Match 79: Xenoblade Chronicles vs. Overwatch XBC 20023 OW 7287 This is entirely in line with expectations for Overwatch. I guess the casuals got fooled by it? Or I dunno, maybe not. 38.68% got this right, compared to 38.98% who had XBC reaching this round and losing, but XBC's first-round prediction percentage was about 5 points better than Overwatch's. I feel like Overwatch probably was the favorite, but its low R1 prediction percentage was either people overrating Death Stranding or just there being a high enough percentage of people who finally realize that casualbait games tend to get slaughtered here. I think the upshot of this is that Kojima needs to bite the bullet and just make movies instead of trying to make these cutscene-heavy video games. Match 80: Ori and the Blind Forest vs. Fire Emblem: Three Houses OatBF 10312 FE3H 16994 We all believed prior to this match that FE3H was probably the favorite in Round 3, and after this, not so much so. Holy crap what a disappointment. Or maybe Ori's just that good. I'd be willing to believe that Ori's actually kind of strong. But I still think XBC has the advantage next round, much as I hate it. Match 81: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. Mass Effect 3 The Witcher 3 21948 Mass Effect 3 6047 Holy shit what just happened Any semblance of faith that anyone might have still had in the 2015 X-Stats meaning anything at all was obliterated here. Yes, we all knew there was no good way to figure out a proper X-Stat value for ME3 since it faced Undertale in Round 1, but the one they eventually came up with had it still beating ME2. Now, ME2 was in Division 8 and Witcher 3 in Division 7, so their relative X-Stat values should be fairly accurate--that's the SMRPG quarter, so the only SFF match that can gum things up was MGS-MGS3 in the Division 8 finals. The adjusted X-Stats say that the Witcher 3 only wins that matchup with 53.59%. The raw X-Stats say that Mass Effect 2 wins it with 50.56%. Yes, we all know that ME3 > ME2 was comical to begin with, but this is an absolute brutalization. A lot of people said this was a huge SFF match. It probably was, but we've had SFF matches be close before. This is a beatdown, and taken at face value would arguably make Witcher 3 the favorite to win the whole damn contest. Something very strange was happening here. Some people were even saying that ME3 was getting caught in Undertale's backlash, either being punished for not stopping the menace before it could be started or for riding Undertale's wake to an undeserved #2 in the raw X-Stats. This was of course ridiculous, and yet, Witcher 3 was only 13th in R1 prediction percentage yet 3rd in R2 percentage, behind only BotW and Skyrim. It's clear the voters had no respect for ME3 at all. Match 82: Stardew Valley vs. Super Mario Galaxy 2 Stardew 10055 Galaxy 2 17947 "Freaking Mario" may be strong, but his games aren't, at least not since SM64. Still...what is that prediction percentage? Galaxy 2 had over 95% prediction percentage in Round 1, yet it barely cracked 60% here. 35% of people thought that either Stardew Valley or Destiny would stop it? I mean, good for them; shows that maybe they have some taste after all. My bracket's pretty much busted since I was counting on this overrated piece of crap going deep because Nintendo Always Wins. It's pretty much toast next round against Witcher 3, which I continue to underestimate for some reason. Oh, right, maybe because the "common wisdom" is that licensed games are garbage? Yeah that's right I'm going to pull the licensed game card again. We need an all-media character battle desperately. Or even a limited one. We already force people to put game of origin in their nominations, right? So just make them do first game. Though I suspect that due to the "licensed crap" aspect, most of the beloved Kingdom Hearts Disney characters had other games first. Match 83: Fallout: New Vegas vs. Dark Souls III FNV 15107 DS3 12888 The prediction percentage suggests that this was a toss-up in voters' minds. Only 48.31% got this right, down from 91.38% who had New Vegas reaching Round 2. Dark Souls III also had a R1 prediction percentage above 85%, so it's not the other entry's fault. The match failed to live up to their expectations, settling into a groove where the last 18.5 hours had the percentage between 53.69% and 54.19%, finishing at 53.96%. A good percentage by the loser, but never in doubt. --- Also known as Cyberchao X. <cite>TsunamiXXVIII posted [p:937896621] in Tsunami's ... [t:78010425]...</cite> <quote>Match 79: Xenoblade Chronicles vs. Overwatch XBC 20023 OW 7287 This is entirely in line with expectations for Overwatch. I guess the casuals got fooled by it? Or I dunno, maybe not. 38.68% got this right, compared to 38.98% who had XBC reaching this round and losing, but XBC's first-round prediction percentage was about 5 points better than Overwatch's. I feel like Overwatch probably was the favorite, but its low R1 prediction percentage was either people overrating Death Stranding or just there being a high enough percentage of people who finally realize that casualbait games tend to get slaughtered here. I think the upshot of this is that Kojima needs to bite the bullet and just make movies instead of trying to make these cutscene-heavy video games. Match 80: Ori and the Blind Forest vs. Fire Emblem: Three Houses OatBF 10312 FE3H 16994 We all believed prior to this match that FE3H was probably the favorite in Round 3, and after this, not so much so. Holy crap what a disappointment. Or maybe Ori's just that good. I'd be willing to believe that Ori's actually kind of strong. But I still think XBC has the advantage next round, much as I hate it. Match 81: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. Mass Effect 3 The Witcher 3 21948 Mass Effect 3 6047 Holy shit what just happened Any semblance of faith that anyone might have still had in the 2015 X-Stats meaning anything at all was obliterated here. Yes, we all knew there was no good way to figure out a proper X-Stat value for ME3 since it faced Undertale in Round 1, but the one they eventually came up with had it still beating ME2. Now, ME2 was in Division 8 and Witcher 3 in Division 7, so their relative X-Stat values should be fairly accurate--that's the SMRPG quarter, so the only SFF match that can gum things up was MGS-MGS3 in the Division 8 finals. The adjusted X-Stats say that the Witcher 3 only wins that matchup with 53.59%. The raw X-Stats say that Mass Effect 2 wins it with 50.56%. Yes, we all know that ME3 > ME2 was comical to begin with, but this is an absolute brutalization. A lot of people said this was a huge SFF match. It probably was, but we've had SFF matches be close before. This is a beatdown, and taken at face value would arguably make Witcher 3 the favorite to win the whole damn contest. Something very strange was happening here. Some people were even saying that ME3 was getting caught in Undertale's backlash, either being punished for not stopping the menace before it could be started or for riding Undertale's wake to an undeserved #2 in the raw X-Stats. This was of course ridiculous, and yet, Witcher 3 was only 13th in R1 prediction percentage yet 3rd in R2 percentage, behind only BotW and Skyrim. It's clear the voters had no respect for ME3 at all. Match 82: Stardew Valley vs. Super Mario Galaxy 2 Stardew 10055 Galaxy 2 17947 "Freaking Mario" may be strong, but his games aren't, at least not since SM64. Still...what is that prediction percentage? Galaxy 2 had over 95% prediction percentage in Round 1, yet it barely cracked 60% here. 35% of people thought that either Stardew Valley or Destiny would stop it? I mean, good for them; shows that maybe they have some taste after all. My bracket's pretty much busted since I was counting on this overrated piece of crap going deep because Nintendo Always Wins. It's pretty much toast next round against Witcher 3, which I continue to underestimate for some reason. Oh, right, maybe because the "common wisdom" is that licensed games are garbage? Yeah that's right I'm going to pull the licensed game card again. We need an all-media character battle desperately. Or even a limited one. We already force people to put game of origin in their nominations, right? So just make them do first game. Though I suspect that due to the "licensed crap" aspect, most of the beloved Kingdom Hearts Disney characters had other games first. Match 83: Fallout: New Vegas vs. Dark Souls III FNV 15107 DS3 12888 The prediction percentage suggests that this was a toss-up in voters' minds. Only 48.31% got this right, down from 91.38% who had New Vegas reaching Round 2. Dark Souls III also had a R1 prediction percentage above 85%, so it's not the other entry's fault. The match failed to live up to their expectations, settling into a groove where the last 18.5 hours had the percentage between 53.69% and 54.19%, finishing at 53.96%. A good percentage by the loser, but never in doubt. --- Also known as Cyberchao X.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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