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red sox 777
12/09/19 1:43:40 PM
#239:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
Red sox, in your opinion would you also automatically add a +2 to Trump in any of the state poll averages for 2020? One could argue that the environment is even more in favor of ostracizing Trump supporters now

I'm not sure. That should be the kind of thing that pollsters are working diligently to correct, after it happened in 3 elections in a row (UK 2015 General, Brexit 2016, US 2016). Also, the fact that Trump won his election may give some supporters the emotional cover they need to answer that yes, they are voting for him again.

I think it's very possible that the country is more divided now than in 2016 by state, and CA and NY will produce even huger landslides against Trump than last time, aided by very loose voting procedures that allow a high percentage of people to vote (vote by mail, for instance). So, it's possible that the Democrat may need to win the popular vote by 4 points this time to break even in the EC, whereas in 2016 the mark was +3 and Hillary got +2.

Incidentally, Democrats have run strongly in special elections in deep red states after 2016 - Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Louisiana, etc. Strong performance by Democrats in red states also increases themargin by which they have to win the national popular vote to win the EC. Because they won't carry those red states, so those strong performances will be for naught, but strong performances there will increase their share of the national popular vote.

If we get this effect going from Democratic gains in both blue states and red states while not seeing such a gain in the swing states we could potentially see a Democrat win the national popular vote by as much as 5 points and still lose. That would really be something and would serve the Democrats right for their view of the country as hopelessly divided into 2 irreconcilable camps only - if they made big gains in both of those 2 camps and still lost.

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