LogFAQs > #927404728

LurkerFAQs, Active DB, DB1, DB2, DB3, DB4, Database 5 ( 01.01.2019-12.31.2019 ), DB6, DB7, DB8, DB9, DB10, DB11, DB12, Clear
Topic List
Page List: 1
TopicTsunami's Post-Contest Analysis (should not need a second topic)
TsunamiXXVIII
09/13/19 8:38:20 PM
#5:


Match 123: Cloud Strife vs Alucard

Cloud 17772
Alucard 11654

This is a pretty good performance for Alucard, one that erased any doubt that he was legitimately stronger rather than merely being the beneficiary of a weak division. (Though make no mistake, he was the beneficiary of a weak division. Sora's inexplicable ability to always land a 1-seed, or a 2-seed when the 1-seeds were reserved for Noble Niners only in 2013, usually results in a wide-open division. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Allen acknowledged that fact when he put Sora as the 2-seed in Crono's division in 2013, since Crono had already shown himself to be the most upset-prone member of the Noble Nine.) I think this was also the match where we realized that the stats for the Second Chance brackets were messed up because they seemed to suggest that Alucard was actually the favorite there, which clearly wasn't the case. Cloud's prediction percentage in primary brackets was far lower; over twice as many people picked against him when his opponent wasn't known than when it was. And that makes sense in a way, because Division 3 was host to a number of theoretical threats. Hell, two of the characters in that division had beaten Cloud already, although both of these events should be taken in the context of "weird gimmicky contests". (Mount Gamemore was pretty awesome, though.) Add to that a character that is frequently thought of as a potential Noble Niner proxy, perhaps rightly so since most of the recent Metal Gear games have been prequels, and there was certainly reason to think that someone in that division could pull the upset. Yeah, about that...

Match 124: Crono vs Bowser

Crono 16150
Bowser 13276

Here, on the other hand, was a far more tangible upset threat. By now, bracketmakers have learned to stop trusting Crono; since the start of the Allen era, he'd lost to a non-Noble Niner in 3 out of 4 contests. As such, he was considered an underdog in primary brackets, being picked to beat the Division 4 winner by just 41.5% of them. This, however, is a sidenote to the most awesome prediction percentage ever, which is the Second Chance Bracket prediction percentage. It should be noted that since Second Chance Brackets were filled out during that Thanksgiving break, the first round of the Legends Bracket is analogous to a Round 1, in that the matchup is already set and so you have full knowledge of exactly whom you are picking to defeat whom. And with full knowledge that the matchup would be Crono vs. Bowser, bracketmakers favored...

No one. Or both, take your pick. In an event that would've been impossible in Round 1 of the primary bracket owing to the fact that the number of brackets filled out there was odd, the Second Chance brackets were a perfect 50-50 split, 2856 for Bowser and 2856 for Crono. Now if only the match itself were that close. After Bowser briefly led with the board vote, Crono established a lead by the freeze, broke 55% a little before the four hour mark, then fell back below 55% less than two hours later and managed to never reach it again while also never falling lower than 54.67%. Just a dull match where Bowser was always keeping it respectable but never threatening to win. Finding out the Second Chance prediction percentages afterwards was honestly the most interesting thing about the match.

Well, that and the fact that Crono was apparently "back". Coming on the heels of Pikachu > Mega Man--and the Second Chance bracketmakers favoring Pikachu when they were merely calling this match a true coin flip--Crono's long-assumed spot as the weakest Noble Niner seemed to be no more. But would we get confirmation, or would the electric rodent get in the way?
---
Also known as Cyberchao X.
... Copied to Clipboard!
Topic List
Page List: 1