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Topic* 2018 CBX Guru Contest - Results, Discussions and Eliminations, Part One *
MetalmindStats
12/06/18 9:21:19 AM
#462:


Because I was curious, I did some analysis of potential Guru winners and eliminations based on the results so far, and assuming Snake and Samus win their current matches.

First, I started with the Path of Least Resistance - which is to say the results for every remaining match that should be favored currently, based on what we have seen to date.

The Path of Least Resistance:
Link > Cloud in 141 (Winners' Semi-Finals 1)
Mario > Zelda in 142 (Winners' Semi-Finals 2)
Mega Man > Crono in 143 (Losers' Round 3)
Samus > Snake in 144 (Losers' Round 3)
Cloud > Mega Man in 145 (Losers' Round 4)
Samus > Zelda in 146 (Losers' Round 4)
Link > Mario in 147 (Winners' Finals)
Samus > Cloud in 148 (Losers' Round 5)
Mario > Samus in 149 (Losers' Finals)
Link > Mario in 150 (Grand Finals)

Note that these results are not necessarily guaranteed by any means, particularly in the cases of Mega Man > Crono and Mario > Samus.

Here's the paths where the fewest changes to this scenario must occur in order for each remaining Guru entrant to win, listed from most to least likely in my opinion:

In the Path of Least Resistance, SpikeDragon wins the guru.
If Crono beats Mega Man, and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance, dimi wins the guru.
If Zelda beats Mario, and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance (and its hierarchies [i.e. Mario > Samus > Cloud]), XIII wins the Guru.
If Crono beats Mega Man and Cloud beats Samus and Mario, and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance, Advokaiser wins the Guru.
If Mario beats Link in battle 150, and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance, SecretSquirrel (greatone) wins the Guru.
If Snake wins in battle 150 (and all necessary battles leading up to it), and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance, MetalmindStats wins the Guru.
If Mario both wins the winners finals and wins in battle 150, and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance, chocoboslayer wins the Guru.
if Crono wins battle 149 (and all necessary battles leading up to it), and all other results fall under the Path of Least Resistance, BK_Sheikah00 wins the Guru in a tie with SpikeDragon.

And here's all the elimination sweepstakes (as far as I can tell) for battles 142-144, disregarding 141:

If Mario beats Zelda in 142, SpikeDragon eliminates XIII.
If Zelda beats Mario in 142, SecretSquirrel and XIII eliminate chocoboslayer.
If Mega Man beats Crono in 143, SpikeDragon eliminates BK_Sheikah00.
If Samus beats Snake in 144, SpikeDragon eliminates MetalmindStats.
If Samus beats Snake in 144 after Zelda beats Mario in 142, XIII also eliminates MetalmindStats.
If Samus beats Snake in 144 after Crono beats Mega Man in 143, Advokaiser, BK_Sheikah00, and dimi also eliminate MetalmindStats.
If Snake beats Samus in 144, SpikeDragon eliminates dimi.

And finally, a list of the characters who need to win in order to preserve certain Gurus:

- Snake can't lose a single match if I'm to stay alive.
- Crono can't lose a single match before 150 if BK_Sheikah00 is to stay alive.
- Samus can't lose a single match before 149 if dimi is to stay alive.
- Mario can't lose a single match if chocoboslayer is to stay alive.
- Cloud can't lose a single losers' bracket match if Advokaiser is to stay alive.
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