LogFAQs > #904423551

Jerry_Hellyeah posted...

clearaflagrantj posted...

Jerry_Hellyeah posted...

Its 50-50. The odds of you being correct dont just magically lock in when you make your choice. It really doesnt fucking matter that it was 1/3 when you first picked. As soon as one choice is revealed to be a losing one, there is a 50-50 chance befween the remaining two choices.

The host has more information than you and knows that the door he removes is a loser.

If the host didn't have any information, it would stay as 33/33/33 (i.e. he could have removed the winning door)

But since he knows he is picking one of two loser doors, the odds become 33/66.

Please remove your emotion from the problem and evaluate it with a rational mind.

Is it not quite irrational to think your 1 in 3 chance stays the same even after a losing selection is removed?

I tell you I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 100

You guess it's "57"

I say it could be 57, or it could be 14, but it's not any of the other numbers

Your guess was 1/100, it still is 1/100, I eliminated every other number because I know those are all losers, all that's left is most likely my number.

Play the scenario out in your head, you can pick 57, 49, 3, 98, any number, I will then eliminate every number other than 14. The only scenario I wouldn't is where you originally selected 14, which is a 1 in 100 chance.