Lurker > Tyranthraxus

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TopicDamn nature, you scary! general topic
Tyranthraxus
11/06/18 12:54:28 AM
#336
This isn't anywhere near as awful as some of the other stuff posted but if I saw this I'd probably be freaked the fuck out way worse.

Anyway it's a deer that got stuck in a tree by its antlers while running from a forest fire.

0nW6SxQ
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
08/16/18 11:11:59 AM
#430
BlueBoy675 posted...
krazychao5 posted...
soulunison2 posted...
MrPeppers posted...
I added therion to my party so I could just start stealing weapons after I found out thats the best way to gear people up. So just get better armor? Ive been mostly just stealing weapons... which fees super awkward since Im maiming Alfyn

pretty much

I soft reset for certain charms (One that restores SP another that restores HP) and other stuff - at this point I'm just casting shit for free and running through bosses. I haven't had any trouble at all and I'm finishing up chapter 4s

You can steal equips with Therion? I've never found anything but usables.

You can steal weapons and armor from NPCs. Idk about battles though

Several bosses have equips or nuts IIRC. Basically anything you can refight over and over again does not have any stealable equips although they may have equippable rare drops.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
08/10/18 1:57:04 AM
#414
Doe posted...
He's like "wow this sure is a real dilemma for me... Wait a minute, why am i thinking? I just gotta stop thinking lol"

I mean that's all his chapters.

at the end of the day he really had to make a decision on whether or not to treat someone who WANTED to die
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
08/10/18 12:17:50 AM
#412
Doe posted...
Alfyns chapter 4 is a cop out

Boss is shit but it's not a cop out
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
08/09/18 10:54:17 PM
#410
M3sterybumper posted...
I thought Primrose had the best story

Primrose is an entertaining story but it's like they just copy/pasted only the Inigo Montoya parts from Princess Bride.

Alfyn's chapters have interesting moral conflicts and intrigue.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
08/08/18 9:25:55 AM
#408
Jeff AKA Snoopy posted...
I'm constantly surprised how good Alfyn's story has been thus far.

Alfyn has the most significant story.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
07/30/18 5:30:49 PM
#367
Jeff AKA Snoopy posted...
Holy shit, Alfyn's Chapter 2 got me all fired up!

Fuck Vanessa giving people medicine to cure one thing, only having it give them something else that she charges shit-tons for. I hope I get to kill her


You are gonna fucking love Alfyn's chapter 3
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
07/30/18 3:52:55 PM
#363
krazychao5 posted...
So...you guys kinda blew my mind about using extra side jobs to keep passive skills from multiple jobs for one character. Anyone have a good list of the best passive skills for each character? I am not smart enough to parse the information..


there's not really a one-size fits all list unless you stick with 4 characters whose jobs you never change. proposed team set up also changes what you need to do.

Warmaster Olberic will want to have completely different passives from Runelord Olberic--and Runelord Olberic will have completely different passives from Runelord Tressa.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
07/29/18 7:36:43 AM
#350
Smashingpmkns posted...
I'm really glad I don't care about the travel banter or else I'd be pulling my hair out trying to get all of them. Kinda shitty that's the route they decided to go imo.

Yeah it's super frustrating. You should get the banter as long as you recruited the character whether or not they're in your party.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
07/27/18 4:36:20 PM
#342
Steve Nick posted...
I'm a bit underwhelmed by the actual class. I think having a transfer bitch is probably the best use of the runelord class.


Lmao

If you say so.


---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicWhat's your favorite kind of rice?
Tyranthraxus
07/25/18 5:53:24 PM
#32
I like basmati the best but only when it's cooked properly.

at home I typically make Jasmine rice

Don't think I ever had Forbidden rice but would like to try it someday.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
07/25/18 3:13:25 PM
#309
Rikiaz posted...
Tyranthraxus posted...
Rikiaz posted...
Alpha218 posted...
There are also accessories that mildly boost gains. But yes Bewildering Grace is what you are referring to

Thing is its so random that just normal grinding might be faster

Guy on reddit tested it a ton. Conclusion was that it's better to just kill stuff and only boost Bewildering Grace if your dance goes before you clearer.


I know in my heart this is accurate but I'm still trying to get JPx100

I know how you feel. I just got an EXP x5 in a battle with 2 Curious Caits and it felt fucking great. I am only in Chapter 3 thought but that was still like 6 levels.


I got JPx5 on a Cait and I'm like "idk what to do anymore."
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
07/25/18 2:53:14 PM
#307
Rikiaz posted...
Alpha218 posted...
There are also accessories that mildly boost gains. But yes Bewildering Grace is what you are referring to

Thing is its so random that just normal grinding might be faster

Guy on reddit tested it a ton. Conclusion was that it's better to just kill stuff and only boost Bewildering Grace if your dance goes before you clearer.


I know in my heart this is accurate but I'm still trying to get JPx100
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
07/24/18 5:40:22 PM
#287
Godnorgosh posted...
I've come to realize that eight independent stories is too much for one game. Really, that's this game's only big flaw, as I see it. I enjoy the battles a great deal more than the story bits because of that.


It's not really that it's too much, just that there's a lot of filler.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
07/24/18 1:50:39 PM
#274
Alpha218 posted...
I dont think she was actually going to do anything until the guy kidnapped her rival and contemplated selling him into slavery.


I'm already way past this part but you guys should consider tagging spoilers
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
Topic$100,000,000, but you have to say "I respect Donald Trump."
Tyranthraxus
07/24/18 1:48:40 PM
#24
I would make racist jokes on Twitter for that kind of money.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
07/24/18 12:37:55 PM
#270
FLUFFYGERM posted...
Did anyone else initially not like a character but then after doing their story you like them more?

For example, I thought Alfyn would be boring so I didn't really want to do his chapter 2 lol. I've never really enjoyed apothecary / healer classes in videogames. But the story was actually interesting and I enjoyed mixing together shit.

I started liking Olberic a lot more after his chapter 3.

He's my favorite male character right now.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
07/24/18 12:36:15 PM
#268
MrPeppers posted...
I cant figure out an optimal party. I started with Alfyn and went counterclockwise. I want to lead off with Alfyn but I have no idea who he synergizes with. Im only like 2 hrs in.

Concoct soothing / purifying dust + essence of pomegranate = Alfyn is good on any team
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicOctopath Traveler General
Tyranthraxus
07/24/18 12:34:51 PM
#265
FLUFFYGERM posted...
Are the advanced job shrines going to be visible on the map in chapter 3 the same way the regular job shrines were in chapter 2?

You have to head to chapter 4 areas to get the advanced shrines. You don't actually have to go to chapter 4 towns, though.

But yes you'll see them on the map.

You can go any time you think you're ready.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicWhat Batman Villain who has never been in a movie would you like to see next?
Tyranthraxus
07/24/18 10:07:11 AM
#61
stone posted...
Man-Bat

He was in BvS briefly
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicI feel like DC has like 6 different live-action universes going on
Tyranthraxus
07/24/18 2:47:52 AM
#9
LuffySkull posted...
iPhone_7 posted...
Gotham is the only good one.


No.

It makes no fucking sense timeline wise unless they pull something out of there ass

That ship already sailed when they made Smallville
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicHistoric WWE announcement this upcoming RAW
Tyranthraxus
07/23/18 8:09:40 PM
#48
Calwings posted...
My god, they are overselling the shit out of this.

This
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicBeautiful female names?
Tyranthraxus
07/23/18 7:24:04 PM
#82
Nina
It's also kind of dated but I like Atropos.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicTerminally ill boy, five, writes own obituary: 'See ya later, suckas!'
Tyranthraxus
07/23/18 6:37:49 PM
#44
When we see Avengers 4: Thanos vs King Kong we'll know what happened.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicGolden Sun has ridiculously boring characters
Tyranthraxus
07/23/18 12:03:52 PM
#38
Ving_Rhames posted...
Maeiv posted...
Also, we dont talk about the DS version


I have yet to play it, but think I'm going to play it immediately after I finish TLA so I can see just how much worse it is, or if it's reasonably close to being the same level of bad lol.


It's literally the same shit except it adds PONRs And there's a useless earth aspect girl who has no story relevance.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicTesla Asks Suppliers for Cash Back to Help Turn a Profit
Tyranthraxus
07/23/18 12:01:44 PM
#10
darkjedilink posted...
They literally have thousands of cars sitting in warehouses.


Had you taken the 5 seconds it takes to read the article, they said the reason the orders are being canceled is because they can't meet the demand fast enough. People are getting impatient with the wait and canceling.

I think I know why fluffy likes picking on you. You make it so fucking easy.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicBoogie1488 has hit rock bottom yet again.
Tyranthraxus
07/23/18 11:38:53 AM
#41
Non vegetable eating
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
Topicwhat's the cheapest legit way to purchase microsoft office
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 11:02:04 AM
#18
Kombucha posted...
so that's a massive (nearly guaranteed) revenue stream.


It's a different kind of revenue. OEM pricing is different from retail keys. Additionally if you try to use an already activated OEM key on a different machine, it won't work.

The reusable retail key that you can install on many different machines is much more expensive around $300.

So you can either:
1) buy an unused OEM key for $25 approximately under the pretense that you will need to buy another one if you ever have to do something like buy a new computer or make significant hardware changes.

or

2) buy a retail key for around $300 but it's good forever or at least until Microsoft makes "Windows 11" or equivalent.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
Topicwhat's the cheapest legit way to purchase microsoft office
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 10:50:32 AM
#9
Kombucha posted...
frozenshock posted...
I hate how so many companies don't let you just buy the piece of software now. Fucking paying a monthly fee. After a couple of years you just end up paying 10 times what it should've normally cost.


isn't it also effective at reducing piracy of software?


Microsoft has reduced piracy by making their software have no real copy protections. You can download Windows or Office directly from them, install them, then don't activate your license. They continue working but they just make you feel bad or try to like the WinRAR popup.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicDisenchantment trailer (new Netflix series from Matt Groening)
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 10:42:57 AM
#3
That looks alright although it's very different premise from Simpsons / Futurama so I'm curious how it'll turn out.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
Topicwhat's the cheapest legit way to purchase microsoft office
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 10:33:49 AM
#2
Office 365 subscription is the cheapest way.

If you only want some basic functions you can try downloading Libre Office instead. It's compatible with Microsoft Office file formats and can export to pdf.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicGolden Sun has ridiculously boring characters
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 10:29:04 AM
#30
Ving_Rhames posted...
Tyranthraxus posted...
Why?


I'll use Mia as a prime example. She literally adds nothing at all to the plot and only exists so you can progress through Mercury. After that shes just your designated heal bot/female party member. Other than that what remarkable or standout personality/character trait does she have? A relation to Alex? Her entire relation to the plot is through the existence of another character. Shes basically nothing.


That wasn't really a question I was trying to make a Felix joke.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicShazam official trailer
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 10:21:22 AM
#61
UnfairRepresent posted...
Tyranthraxus posted...
BLAKUboy posted...
KlRBEH posted...
Wasn't it because they didn't want people to get confused with the Marvel superhero Captain Marvel?

No, Marvel sued them and won.

That's not what happened.
Marvel snatched it up while it was available and then sued.


lolwut


I'm saying it wasn't a play because Marvel was worried people were getting that character confused with their Captain Marvel. They already had both characters for over 40 years at that point. It was done purely out of legal spite when DC made a clerical error and Marvel swooped in for the kill.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicIQ Test
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 1:03:35 AM
#91
kg88222 posted...
If i average out 2/3 and 1/4. The answer is then something else. And I could be looking at it wrong. So could all of you. People could be doing the math in the proper way or they couldn't be.

You are picking from the same box. 2/3 makes the most sense to me. But again an argument could be made that is a hopeful estimate.

If a simulation was done somehow to see what the actual percentage is you could then try to figure out why that is. Or vice versa and just actually prove it somehow through mathematical reasoning.

I get why people think it's bertrands because you have to remove the balls themselves. And then there are basically a certain number of outcomes. It's 2/3 and that probably is the right answer. We could all me morons too. When you first look at it it's different than that. Why it's called bertrands paradox. But people also think it's the boy girl paradox if you take it a step further.

The only difference between this and the boy girl paradox is that there are only 3 total possibilities as opposed to 4 for the boy girl paradox.

If you redo the boy girl paradox assuming that because a genie said so that GB didn't exist, only BB, BG, GG, you end up with the same results.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicCan someone explain the "in my feelings" challenge to me
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 12:54:19 AM
#2
littlebro07 posted...
Why are people jumping out of moving cars to dance like idiots?

Seriously, why is this a thing that grown ass people with functioning brains are actually doing?

There exists a certain group of people that do not have enough problems and so they invent problems that did not exist just to have problems.

These groups include, but are not limited to, people jumping out of moving cars, Black Friday door buster shoppers, HOA Staff, and Donald Trump.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicVideo games need more cool moms
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 12:47:49 AM
#4
FF 13-4 Hope's Mom Returns
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicIs the Goku vs Superman debate pretty much settled now?
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 12:44:53 AM
#63
Murphiroth posted...
K181 posted...
Goku instant transmits Superman to a planet orbiting a red star, then punches his head off.

Goku wins.


It's pretty telling that you have to posit a wildly out of character scenario for Goku to even sniff a win.

Goku would have no knowledge of Superman's abilities being tied to suns (or of kryptonite for that matter) and even if he did he'd want to fight him at his best, not make him weaker.

It's pretty stupid how this scenario keeps getting brought up.

Like why not "Goku ITs him to a pile of gold Kryptonite" or something else. If we're just going to start making shit up that Goku has no access to or no ability to understand how it works.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicHappiness and bliss but everyone dies
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 12:41:49 AM
#5
Shotgunnova posted...
I don't like sand. It's coarse and rough and irritating, and it gets everywhere.

Anakin: "YOU UNDERESTIMATE MY POWER!!"
Obi-Wan: *throws sand*
Anakin: "YOU FUCKING CHEATER!!"
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicIs the Goku vs Superman debate pretty much settled now?
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 12:35:12 AM
#61
At the cost of his life, cell was able to self destruct with such a force that it would destroy the earth.

The sun shits out a flare every minute that can do that. It is fortunately very far away.

I don't think people are really appreciating just how powerful the sun is.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicIQ Test
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 12:28:27 AM
#84
kg88222 posted...
There has got to be a way where you can just pick from one box and eliminate all the ones where you pick from the box that has no gold balls from the start. It doesn't need to be that complicated. Just calculate the percentage of every time you pick from one of those 2 boxes and what the probability actually is after that.

Stop.

You are not picking a box.

You are picking a ball.

The ball just ends up being gold.

Think of it like this if it helps.

1. Pick a box.
2. Draw a ball from the box.
3. If it's silver, discard the experiment and start over at step 1.
4. If it's gold, how likely was it that you picked it from the box that has 2 gold balls versus how likely is it that you picked it from the box with one gold ball.

You are twice as likely to have grabbed it from the 2 ball box than the 1 ball box.

Because the two ball box has 100% chance of drawing a second gold ball, and the other box doesn't have any, the real question you're asking is "what is the probability that the gold ball I picked came from the 2 ball box?"

That's 2/3 because you're twice as likely to get it there as you are the one ball box.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
Topic"graffiti" is the plural form of "graffito"
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 12:21:34 AM
#7
Anteaterking posted...
ForestLogic posted...
Related:

A big pet peeve of mine is how those Italian style sandwiches "panini" is the plural of "panino".
People still pluralize it though and say "paninis".


You're always allowed to pluralize a loan word in your own language though.

That's why Octopuses and Octopodes are both acceptable, but Octopii isn't.

Octopi isn't acceptable because of it's language roots. Not the other way around.

English already has a great deal of nonstandard pluralization so it shouldn't make a difference at this point.

Foot > Feet for example.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicRemember when that one guy literally had the source code to Starcraft
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 12:08:55 AM
#10
NeonOctopus posted...
Highwind07 posted...
but he would've been in some legal trouble IIRC because it was Blizzard IP.

Shut up about the file, go to a random library, make a random email, upload to a file sharing site, and walk out
????
PROFIT!!

Go to library
Look at who used that computer at that time
????
FEDERAL OFFENSE!!
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicNobody tell Disney that Robert Downey Jr. used crack 20 years ago
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 12:07:09 AM
#23
Awesome posted...
clinton cheated on his wife in the oval office, and lied under oath.

democrats - " oh please incels, it was only a bj. grow up! "

I mean I think the stormy Daniels thing was a load of horseshit.

The main takeaway from that story is how Cohen got fucked trying to cover for Trump and not that he had sex with a pornstar.

I just can't bring it in me to care about super rich guys who cheat on their wives.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
Topic"graffiti" is the plural form of "graffito"
Tyranthraxus
07/22/18 12:02:56 AM
#4
Dash_Harber posted...
ForestLogic posted...
People still pluralize it though and say "paninis".


That's what happens when your language is the endpoint of three different language groups mixing.

This shit literally drives me nuts. There's an Italian restaurant around that I think closed down now that was called "La Nonna's" which makes no fucking sense whatsoever. It's using an Italian article and the English possessive contraction.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
Topicname a worse band than Imagine Dragons
Tyranthraxus
07/21/18 11:56:23 PM
#41
Iwiybbykintsal posted...
treewojima posted...
I baffled as to why they're classified as rock tbh. They get so much airplay on my local modern rock station, along with other "rock" bands, that I've basically written off the station as yet another ClearChannel advertising medium


I'm a guy that still listens to the radio. There's a local station called 98 Rock and they'll play shit from Twenty One Pilots and shit like this all day!

Anything with an electric guitar is rock these days according to public radio.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicAnti venom (CROFAB) costs $8,000-12,000+ per vial
Tyranthraxus
07/21/18 11:55:00 PM
#16
I change my mind just take the foot please thanks.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
Topicname a worse band than Imagine Dragons
Tyranthraxus
07/21/18 11:53:51 PM
#35
Hanson
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicIQ Test
Tyranthraxus
07/21/18 11:52:07 PM
#79
TomNook20 posted...
Sayoria posted...
1/2. This isn't the Monty Hall illusion.


Nope, it's betrand's, and you're wrong.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox

That's all it is.
---
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://imgur.com/dQgC4kv
TopicIQ Test
Tyranthraxus
07/21/18 9:32:57 PM
#48
Sativa_Rose posted...
RedZaraki posted...
An explicit explanation.

Let's draw numbers on the balls to track them, shall we?

Box 1, Gold 1 = #1
Box 1, Gold 2 = #2
Box 2, Gold = #3
Box 2, Silver = #4
Box 3, Silver 1 = #5
Box 3, Silver 2 = #6

You choose a box at random. This is 1/3 probability. You choose a ball at random. This is 1/2 probability (within that box).

Thus, you have a 1/6 probability of pulling any specific ball here.

HOWEVER. The rules state YOU PULLED A GOLD BALL. Yes? Guaranteed, you are holding either ball #1, #2, or #3 in your hand. AND they all had equal probability of occurring. Thus, 1 out of 3 odds each.

So the odds you are holding each ball right now is:

#1 = 1/3
#2 = 1/3
#3 = 1/3
#4 = 0 (we did not pull a silver ball)
#5 = 0 (we did not pull a silver ball)
#6 = 0 (we did not pull a silver ball)

Everyone follow so far?

Let's look at what happens in each of the three cases. GIVEN that you know you pulled a gold ball:

1/3 times you Pulled #1: Your next pull is guaranteed to be #2, also a gold ball. = 100% gold
1/3 times you Pulled #2: Your next pull is guaranteed to be #1, also a gold ball. = 100% gold
1/3 times you Pulled #3: Your next pull is guaranteed to be #4, a silver ball. = 0% gold

Let's add these up.

(1/3 * 100%) + (1/3 * 100%) + (1/3 * 0%) = (1/3 * 1.0) + (1/3 * 1.0) + (1/3 * 0.0) = 2/3


Okay I believe this is correct. Another way to think of the final answer is to say that if one were to run this experiment thousands of times, they would pull out another gold ball 2/3 of the time that the first one they pull out is gold.


Probability gets wonky when you add conditions.

Like, for example, if I were to say how many heads would you get on average in a single coin flip. The answer is 1/2 except you can't flip a half of a head so it's not a real result, but that's how the math works out.

People tend to think about these problems as tangible things with a sequence of events within a specific occurrence and not as a more general abstract math problem.

You could repeat this exercise with 1 million extra boxes of 2 silver balls and the result is unchanged.
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It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
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