Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1383

Board 8

Page of 5
Board 8 » Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1383
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4097-southeast-division-round-1-bioshock-vs-sw-battlefront-ii

There was a little bit of excitement/nostalgia over Battlefront II being in the bracket. BioShock subsequently doubling it (and basically rising the entire match) was a surprise for many of us, considering the Oracle average was only about 60% here. Nobody was quite fearing for KH2's chances, but we were curious to see how it would do against BioShock now.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4098-southeast-division-round-1-kingdom-hearts-ii-vs-halo-2

It was a bit anticlimactic having the two kings of the ASV meet in a day match because they essentially just canceled each other out without any night trends. Regardless, KH2 put up a good number on Halo 2 and set the standard for KH1 to respond to in preparation for their showdown.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Bioshock did not win by enough
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
BF2 should've won
All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
My friend says BF2 sucks and BF1 should have been in the bracket
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
...that's about as hot a take as saying Assassin's Creed 2 sucks and AC1 should've been in the bracket
All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
All right, let's talk about some Games 2015 stuff since the retrospective starts tomorrow.

First of all, this was announced after Allen canceled his original idea, Worst Character Ever. Not sure how he didn't realize that was a bad idea, but the result was a new Games Contest.

And we finally got what we wanted: 1-on-1, no divisions by era, 24-hour matches. It's wild to think it took until 2015 for us to get that. Allen was always adamant about not reducing the bracket size, so that meant he had to come up with a new format. That format turned out to be four matches per day, with each match starting at 8 P.M. Eastern time instead of midnight.

There was some mixed reaction to the format. There were worries about rally overlap (which turned out to be warranted) or reduced vote totals due to running multiple matches at once, but overall, it was well received as a new format.

The format for deciding the bracket was a bit more controversial because Allen used a weighted system of nominations and Metacritic reviews. The result is that it favored newer games and some older games got the shaft (like Mario 1 or Zelda 1). The Guru nomination, Sonic 3 & Knuckles, also got boned because we used a Steam port (which naturally had no real review scores) as a way to finally get it into the contest. However, Allen's hatred for S3&K could not be denied.

It was also noteworthy that League of Legends was left out. It was ambiguous whether it simply didn't have enough nominations combined with Metacritic scores or if Allen just outright banned it, but either way, it wouldn't stop another contest from getting overrun by rallies.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
The worst part about Mario 1 exclusion was that it came on top of his Halo 1 comments and him confirming it was in the top 100 nominations. Anyone knows its metacritic score would be near perfect if it existed.

I did enjoy his hint topic though. "56 Tactics".

Did matches really start that early in that contest as well?
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
I wouldn't be surprised if League just didn't make it naturally. Draven returned in 2018, after all.
It's Reyn Time.
Post #110 was unavailable or deleted.
the only rally that I see striking more than once is Melee
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
Mario 1 missing the bracket because of metacritic was the death of these contests.

Once you decide that GameFAQs doesn't even get to decide what they think great game contenders are it's over.
Not a stinky alien. :(
Nintendo Switch Code: SW-5719-6555-8388
UltimaterializerX posted...
Its like, enjoy the extra site traffic for a couple months and move on.

Not all money is good money
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4099-southeast-division-round-1-modern-warfare-2-vs-dissidia

Whoops, forgot to do the night match before I went to bed! Modern Warfare 2 was (somehow) our 2009 Game of the Year winner, and it was up against a PSP fighting game, but it had Final Fantasy in the title. Very few thought MW2 would actually lose, but the Oracle average was only 57.46% and that turned out to be a slight overestimation...! That brief Call of Duty phase the site had was something, huh.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4100-southeast-division-round-1-kingdom-hearts-vs-castlevania

After KH2 fired its opening shot, KH1 responded in a big way. It overshot the Oracle average by about 9% here. It was hard to know exactly how strong Dawn of Sorrow was, but KH1 felt like the favorite at this point.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Mario 1 missing the bracket because of metacritic was the death of these contests.

Once you decide that GameFAQs doesn't even get to decide what they think great game contenders are it's over.
To be fair, Metascores were only part of the formula for determining 2015's field, and that wasn't the first (or last) game contest in which they presumably played a role in seeding.

2009, from the wiki:
User nominations will count for 1/3 of the bracket seeding; the other 2/3 will be based on professional review scores and GameFAQs user rating and review scores.
v 2015:
On October 15, 2015, the selection committee will seed the games that will battle in the Tournament based on a mixture of editorial decision and audience vote (128 games).
and then:
The games have been seeded by a combination of user nominations, popularity on GameFAQs, and critical and user game ratings

Ironically, it's actually possible this meant that 2009 having divisions by era was responsible for Mario 1 even making its field, and given its seeding formula, that's almost certainly the reason why it had an ample complement of pre-Metascore games.

...that being said, I certainly don't agree with using Metascores as even part of the formula for determining game contest entrants and think they only should've mattered for weeding out games with overly bad critical reception (as distinguished from those lacking reviews) nominated as jokes. Admittedly, League very likely would've made the contest at that point, and I'm guessing Allen wanted an actual metric rather than his own decision to be responsible for its omission. I think he and his committee could've just stuck it as a low seed against something widely beloved and not antivote-susceptible and possibly defrayed the damage that way without having to sacrifice Mario 1, S3&K, etc on its pyre, though.
she/her (they/them also okay)
~never knows what to say~
KH1 got rSFF'D!!!
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
The 2009 one says that it only helps to determine seeding, not necessarily who makes the bracket

Maybe Allen isn't making any meaningful distinction between the two though
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Yeah, it's just dumb that no metacritic score apparently meant a bad score in this system. Allen confirmed Mario 1 was in the top 100 most nominated games.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6051-best-game-ever-day-1-chrono-trigger-vs-ratchet-and-clank-3

Chrono Trigger had a rough showing in the 2009 Games Contest, and the characters had struggled in the two Character Battles since then. Despite getting the most nominations for this contest (and Nick insisting he had a fan page at the ready whenever it needed the votes), expectations for it were relatively low. The Oracle average was only 76.73% for it here, so when it had nearly 88% out of the gates, that got our attention.

Also please play Ratchet & Clank

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6052-best-game-ever-day-1-dragon-quest-viii-vs-persona-3

The second match results in a board upset once again! 82.74% of Gurus picked Persona 3 here, and the Oracle average was 54% for it. Ironically, this match lined up pretty closely to what the GotD X-Stats projected, but people thought Persona 3 would have gotten stronger in the last five years as Persona's popularity continued to rise. This was an overall upset, too, as only 45% of brackets had Dragon Quest VIII winning.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Leonhart4 posted...
Ironically, this match lined up pretty closely to what the GotD X-Stats projected, but people thought Persona 3 would have gotten stronger in the last five years as Persona's popularity continued to rise.
Games strength always seemed oddly static compared to character strength. They can still get stronger or weaker, but generally speaking they didn't swing nearly as much as the character contests.
It's Reyn Time.
Persona 3 just ain't no Chrono Cross
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
Post #123 was unavailable or deleted.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4101-south-division-round-1-final-fantasy-x-vs-viewtiful-joe

B8 was quick to dump on FFX's chances to win GotD the entire contest (especially when it mattered most but more on that when the time comes), and this match was no exception. FFX was below a tripling at the freeze, but it basically rose the rest of the way from here. It was still regarded as an underperformance though because the Oracle average was 81.55% here.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Leonhart4 posted...
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6051-best-game-ever-day-1-chrono-trigger-vs-ratchet-and-clank-3

Chrono Trigger had a rough showing in the 2009 Games Contest, and the characters had struggled in the two Character Battles since then. Despite getting the most nominations for this contest (and Nick insisting he had a fan page at the ready whenever it needed the votes), expectations for it were relatively low. The Oracle average was only 76.73% for it here, so when it had nearly 88% out of the gates, that got our attention.
Chrono Trigger had my attention the year before when it placed #1 on the Top 100 Games list. Yes, that was a much smaller voting pool, but I figured with votals trending downwards, this was how the remainder of the site would trend towards.

Also, as much as the past couple Character Battles looked bad for CT, they were also exceptionally bad draws, and both of Crono's losses were at the hands of Pokemon. If you were willing to chalk that up to Pokemon being also being on the rise, banking on Chrono Trigger to make a run here seemed sensible.

I was wrong, but for the right reasons. *sigh*
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc , winner of Game of the Decade!
Classic second match kills everyone in Last Man Standing.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Leonhart4 posted...
with each match starting at 8 P.M. Eastern time instead of midnight

Again, I really think this is incorrect.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Yeah I definitely remember matches starting at EST midnight since...a long time ago, and that never changing.
It's Reyn Time.
It definitely changed for 2018 and 2020, might even have been an anti rally measure.

The reason I feel pretty confident is that I remember staying up for matches to start in those two but not in 2015 and I definitely would have at some point if it was 2am and not 6am my time then as well.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Regardless, I'm putting a gap between them so I'm not posting all these matches at once.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6053-best-game-ever-day-1-batman-arkham-city-vs-mega-man-x

Mega Man X hadn't looked great in 2009, and Arkham Asylum had looked pretty good in 2010. That combined with the belief that Arkham City would be stronger made it a decent upset pick here, as 30% of Gurus took it to win.

On the other hand, there was a select group of people whose philosophy was "take the '90s game whenever possible," and that logic was generally rewarded. Mega Man X went far above expectations (the Oracle average was only 53%) and sent the message that this contest would belong to the '90s (until it belonged to the rallies). This was also a toss-up overall, as MMX only had 50.64% of brackets.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6054-best-game-ever-day-1-final-fantasy-x-vs-half-life

While CT and MMX were dominating, FFX was failing to meet expectations. The Oracle average was a doubling, and it fell a few percent short of that. FFX was a popular pick to beat CT in a couple rounds, but it took less than 24 hours for many to realize they had made a mistake. Also only 60% of the site took FFX to win, which was surprisingly low.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Year of SNES already 1 day into the contest.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4102-south-division-round-1-tales-of-vesperia-vs-borderlands

Borderlands was the clear favorite, although Vesperia had a little bit of support, as there's a part of B8 that always wants Tales to be better than it is in contests. Vesperia kept it reasonably close, but it never made any real push at winning the match.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
That MMX > City result is still a tragedy.
"That was unnecessarily dramatic". - NY Mets motto (courtesy of InnerTubeHero)
Congratulations to azuarc, the guru of gurus and winner of GotD 2020!
Leonhart4 posted...
The 2009 one says that it only helps to determine seeding, not necessarily who makes the bracket
That's very fair. I admittedly automatically assumed that seeding the games in the bracket and determining which made it in the first place were one and the same, as you conjectured they might have been for Allen. It seems probable to me that was indeed the case for 2015, at least.
she/her (they/them also okay)
~never knows what to say~
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6055-best-game-ever-day-2-smash-bros-melee-vs-portal

Many people lamented Portal as a wasted slot in the contest since it had done well in GotD and was set up with an unwinnable match right away. However, Melee laid a bigger beatdown on it than we expected. The Oracle average was only 64% for it, and it was at a tripling at the freeze. It took three hours for Melee to drop below 70% but an impression had been made. Also everyone who had Portal 2 beating Sonic 2 had even more reason to be nervous about their choice.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6056-best-game-ever-day-2-pokemon-gold-silver-vs-world-ends-with

G/S/C also had a predictable path because no one thought it could beat Melee next round despite the tripling it put up on TWEWY (which deserved better than this, alas). It's interesting to note that it actually got a higher seed than R/B/Y/G (or however many letters it had in this contest).
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4103-south-division-round-1-golden-sun-vs-ratchet-and-clank-up

Whoops, forgot to do last night's match again. Wait, it's Up Your Arsenal getting blown out again? This time, by Golden Sun?! The Oracle average was only 57% here, so this put people on upset alert for next round.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6057-best-game-ever-day-2-metal-gear-solid-4-vs-kingdom-hearts-ii

There was some debate over this match. KH2 had 80% of Guru picks, and the Oracle average was just over 52% for it. KH2 was over 61% at the freeze and it took two and a half hours to fall below 60% in this match. No game has had a fall from such peak strength quite like MGS4 (although it did end up the highest MGS game in the raw X-Stats due to Melee's fraudulent run!).

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6058-best-game-ever-day-2-the-last-of-us-vs-halo-3

From beating Mario Sunshine to getting doubled by The Last of Us, Halo 3 also had quite a fall. This was kind of predictable though because we were a post-Xbox site at this point. I wonder how strong TLOU would be now after the TV show and the backlash from TLOU2 has died down.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4104-south-division-round-1-gta-san-andreas-vs-dead-space

After Golden Sun's performance, this was a bit underwhelming for San Andreas. Their round 2 showdown was looking more and more like a tossup now.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6059-best-game-ever-day-3-final-fantasy-vi-vs-assassins-creed-ii

Like CT, FFVI had a rough showing in 2009 Games. Like CT, FFVI came out of the gates showing it was on a different level than before. The Oracle average was just under 70% and it blew past that by a full 8% here. Assassin's Creed II also demonstrated that the series wasn't what it used to be and the site had passed it by now.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6060-best-game-ever-day-3-paper-mario-tyd-vs-tales-of-symphonia

This was a really cool match to set up, which was essentially a battle for the top GameCube RPG. TTYD was a clear favorite on the board, with 75% of Gurus picking it, but some people thought Symphonia could pull it off.

TTYD got off to a strong start and basically held Symphonia at bay the rest of the match. It was never really in any danger of losing despite the close final margin. Once again, Symphonia had proved it belonged with a big game one-on-one, but once again, it couldn't quite come out on top.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
FFVI got where it was expected to in 2009 at least. Chromo Trigger was not there to greet it.

Happy TTYD did it, especially with PM getting a tough draw.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
I wonder if FFVI actually ended up being fine in fourways and just Mega Man X and Link's Awakening were secretly monsters even back then.
Not a stinky alien. :(
Nintendo Switch Code: SW-5719-6555-8388
I do think it was a missed opportunity not seeing Link's Awakening again to see what it could do one-on-one
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
It was probably weaker then. Mega Man didn't look good that year, the shift towards SNES era helped MMX in 2015.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4105-south-division-round-1-star-wars-kotor-vs-devil-may-cry

KotOR was the clear favorite, with only a handful supporting DMC. It got off to a fast start in the mid-60s, but it was a gradual decline the rest of the way and settled in the high 50s. KotOR is one of those games that hasn't really won any big matches, but it's managed to look respectable in all of its appearances.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6061-best-game-ever-day-3-star-wars-kotor-vs-xenogears

Speaking of KotOR, here it is again! We hadn't seen Xenogears in a non-SFF situation since the glory days of beating Pokmon Gold/Silver in 2004 (and that had some weird stuff surrounding it too). It's certainly not as strong as it used to be, but it still put up a respectable performance. Even so, this was the first loss for a '90s game in this contest.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6062-best-game-ever-day-3-zelda-the-wind-waker-vs-pokemon-x-y

Pokemon has a history of resisting SFF in these contests, so the Oracle average for Wind Waker was only 61.51% here. Of course, we didn't factor in that resisting SFF is an attribute of the Pokmon games the fanbase really likes.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6063-best-game-ever-day-4-smash-bros-wii-u-vs-planescape-torment

There was some curiosity about how Smash 4 would perform, being a Wii U game but also being part of one of the site's most popular series. Planescape: Torment wasn't the game to test it though, since it was likely one of the weakest games in the bracket.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6064-best-game-ever-day-4-super-mario-galaxy-2-vs-mass-effect

This was our second Guru upset of the contest. 80% had Galaxy 2 and the Oracle average was 56% for it, to boot. I personally didn't really understand it. I had Mass Effect from the beginning and felt good about it. Galaxy 1 had been a disappointment in 2009 and 2010, and Galaxy 2 came out after the site had turned on the Wii. Plus, ME1 had demonstrated real strength in GotD and Shepard had beaten Aerith in 2013, so there wasn't reason to believe it had fallen off of a cliff.

It turned out to be a fun match though. Galaxy 2 used the Power Hour to build a 265 vote lead. Mass Effect (very) slowly bled the lead all night. The two went 50/50 during the morning vote, but once the ASV hit, Mass Effect pulled away (again very slowly, a side effect of such low vote totals). Mass Effect was also the overall bracket favorite, with 51.44% of people picking it to win.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Eh, I mean, it's close enough for the pick to be justified, we had a match for about half the day. 80% I think is just when a bandwagon kind of effect happens on the board. I thought it was about 50/50 and I one point match so I just went with the game I liked more in Galaxy 2.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
I'm not saying Galaxy 2 was a bad pick. I just didn't understand the confidence in it.

The board just defaults to Nintendo in these situations, I guess.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Oh darn, I just realized I got ahead of myself there. That should've been the GotD match, whoops!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4106-south-division-round-1-fire-emblem-vs-tony-hawk-2

Any thought that Tony Hawk 2 could win this went out the windows once Path of Radiance blew out No Mercy. It put up a better fight, at least, but it still wasn't close. I wonder who wins between FE7 and Path of Radiance.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Board 8 » Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1383
Page of 5