Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1379

Board 8

Page of 7
Board 8 » Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1379
Leonhart4
03/09/2025
07:05 PM
#102
It's been too long for me to remember bad changes I've made to my brackets over the years
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Yesmar_
03/09/2025
07:56 PM
#103
KamikazePotato posted...

Let's make that a general question to everyone here: what was your biggest almost-prediction that you really wish you'd pulled the trigger on?

Wouldn't have mattered much in terms of points, but I really wanted to pick Pac-Man > Ocelot in '05, but didn't go through with it. Would have been nice being (one of?) the only Guru(s) to make a pick.
Congrats on Advokaiser for winning the 2018 Guru Contest!
Yesmar
Leonhart4
03/10/2025
01:45 AM
#104
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3836-midgar-division-round-3-cloud-strife-vs-captain-falcon

This match featured one of the biggest vote swings from freeze to finish you'll ever see in a match without rallying or joke characters. Captain Falcon had 41% at the freeze and barely stayed above 30% by the end. Cloud also had an hour where he averaged nearly 75% during the dead zone.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Leonhart4
03/10/2025
05:24 PM
#105
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3837-midgar-division-round-3-leon-kennedy-vs-ryu

For years, there was a running gag on the board when someone would make a topic asking "What game is this character from?" and people would answer that it was the main character of Resident Evil Gaiden.

Well, the joke became a reality in this match as Leon Kennedy got his sprite from that game. He wasn't given a big chance of winning before the match pic was revealed, but it became a forgone conclusion for Ryu once we saw it.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
ctesjbuvf
03/10/2025
05:26 PM
#106
Ah yeah, that was so ridiculous.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
MegaWentEvil
03/10/2025
06:50 PM
#107
Leonhart4 posted...
For years, there was a running gag on the board when someone would make a topic asking "What game is this character from?" and people would answer that it was the main character of Resident Evil Gaiden.
I always found that meme ridiculous. I think I remember correcting people before.
he/him | Aromantic/Asexual(Non-partnering) | Avatar made with Sangled's Picrew
Times I have been subjected to aro/ace erasure as of 09/29/22 - 1
Leonhart4
03/11/2025
02:53 AM
#108
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3838-gear-division-round-3-solid-snake-vs-pikachu

Not to be outdone by someone else's terrible sprite, Snake had to pit his infamous sprite up against a classic Pikachu sprite. The result was chaos, at least for the first 20 minutes. That's how long Pikachu managed to lead, but then Snake took off and never looked back, not even being slowed down by the Nintendo morning vote.

I remember this being the most difficult result for me to try to adjust in this contest's X-Stats. I didn't really know what to do with it. Pikachu had proven to be legit, but on the level of a Noble Nine buster? Surely not.

...Right?
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
KamikazePotato
03/11/2025
02:57 AM
#109
Sad that Snake might lose that matchup these days, even without the sprite round.
It's Reyn Time.
Leonhart4
03/11/2025
03:05 AM
#110
KamikazePotato posted...
Sad that Snake might lose that matchup these days, even without the sprite round.

Eh, I'm not sure he would. I mean, it's been 7 years and the vote totals have plummeted to such a degree that we can't be confident in much of anything, but Snake was still comfortably ahead of Pikachu in 2018.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
ctesjbuvf
03/11/2025
03:12 AM
#111
It's amusing Snake came right after Leon.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
ctesjbuvf
03/11/2025
03:41 AM
#112
Snake has had a bunch of underperformances with his sprite but he also always manages to draw someone that gets an absolutely fantastic sprite somehow. Impressive it has never actually cost him.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Leonhart4
03/11/2025
12:17 PM
#113
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3839-gear-division-round-3-auron-vs-squall

Oh, I have so many things I could say about this match! We always got excited when we got a battle between two near elites, and there was a lot of discussion over this one. Squall was a pretty big favorite on the board, but there were arguments to be made for Auron. The big one was that he had succeeded in beating Sonic in 2008 where Squall had failed in 2007.

This was a notable match for me for many reasons beyond Squall winning a big match and making it to the fourth round for the first time in a one-on-one contest. I made many contest sig bets over the years, but this was one of the rare times I won one. I defeated HaRRicH (miss that guy) and put a Smiling Squall Pic in his sig as a result.

Speaking of Smiling Squall, that was in the background of the picture, which was made by KoolAidShoto (miss that guy too), who wanted to do the concept justice and not make a joke out of it. Well, Zen did "previews" in his Rate the Match Pic topic for upcoming ratings, and the one for Auron/Squall was a Photoshopped post of me going "WAAAAAAAAAA" until the text went off the screen. Well, I surprised Zen by giving the pic a 10, and I think he realized I wasn't just being whiny about his 2008 Smiling Squall picture. I just didn't think it was fair to make a picture intentionally designed to make someone look derpy. I honestly think this was when Zen and I became friends. Good times.

Finally, this match was an oddity in that Squall was the only time (or at least the first time) this contest that the character who lost in the U.S. won the match. Squall won pretty handily basically everywhere else, so it enabled him to overcome the difference. As such, he probably puts up 53-54% in a night match, but at least he won either way!
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
#114
Post #114 was unavailable or deleted.
Leonhart4
03/11/2025
12:54 PM
#115
I would say that the chance and strength of SFF increases as the disparity between the two characters increases. Mario/Samus is a weird exception in many ways.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Leonhart4
03/12/2025
07:48 AM
#116
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3840-jenova-division-round-3-sephiroth-vs-missingno

The stakes in this match felt massive. Many people felt that, if Missingno could win this one, nothing would stop it from winning the whole contest. Somehow Sephiroth had become our last hope.

The match started and Missingno got off to a hot start, but it only led by 200 at the freeze. It didn't seem like Missingno was going to run away with it, so now the question was if it would hold Sephiroth off at the buzzer or if he would take control and leave Missingno in the dust. It turned out to be the latter. Missingno led for nearly 3 hours and got its lead a little over 600 votes, but once we hit the dead zone, Sephiroth erased the deficit in no time and won with room to spare.

There was some debate about what would have happened in a day match or a 24 hour match where rallying would've been more effective because more people would have been awake, but the final joke character in 2010 had been slain.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
ctesjbuvf
03/12/2025
07:51 AM
#117
Sephiroth was the savior of that contest.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
LightningStrikes
03/12/2025
08:53 AM
#118
I think that match might be one of the only times I voted for Sephiroth.
I just decided to change this sig.
Blaaaaaaargh azuarc
#119
Post #119 was unavailable or deleted.
Leonhart4
03/12/2025
09:55 AM
#120
UltimaterializerX posted...
Great match to bring up when people claim rallies always win or ruin things.

Please stop making this disingenuous argument
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
LightningStrikes
03/12/2025
09:58 AM
#121
There have always been rallies and most close matches were getting some kind of small rally at least. What many including Leon dislike I feel, and correct me if Im wrong here, are contest-busting rallies like Draven or Undertale.

I didnt mind Undertale too much as it was out of love of the game and there were counter-rallies that kept it close, but Draven was abysmal.
I just decided to change this sig.
Blaaaaaaargh azuarc
Leonhart4
03/12/2025
11:06 AM
#122
Draven was toxic but his run at least had contest drama.

Undertale was boring as heck. Contest was over as soon as it beat ME3. You had artificially close matches, but I never thought it would lose. Plus, watching two outside rallies go head to head wasn't compelling at all for me. I don't care what other sites think about our contest.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
pjbasis
03/12/2025
11:10 AM
#123
Ulti's just trying to say that rallies, like near death experiences, can be positive if you live through it! The rush you get when you realize you're still alive, you know?
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
Leonhart4
03/12/2025
11:11 AM
#124
pjbasis posted...
Ulti's just trying to say that rallies, like near death experiences, can be positive if you live through it! The rush you get when you realize you're still alive, you know?

Ulti doesn't want us to live through it though
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Leonhart4
03/12/2025
12:09 PM
#125
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3841-jenova-division-round-3-big-daddy-vs-tifa-lockheart

This was one of the few disappointing showings we've seen from Tifa. The Oracle average was nearly 64% for her, although she once again avoided the customary slow start for FFVII. You could possibly attribute a couple of factors here: Anti-FFVII resentment for Sephiroth taking out Missingno, and a bandwagon effect for Big Daddy for making it this far as a 14 seed.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
LightningStrikes
03/12/2025
12:13 PM
#126
More of a good showing for Big Daddy imho. Bioshock 2, where you play as one, was just a month old. That was probably peak Big Daddy strength.
I just decided to change this sig.
Blaaaaaaargh azuarc
ctesjbuvf
03/12/2025
02:37 PM
#127
Yeah it had just released during the contest.

Maybe at this point people had also played it.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Leonhart4
03/12/2025
05:18 PM
#128
Yeah, I forgot that BioShock 2 had just come out. That probably played a role, too.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
KamikazePotato
03/12/2025
05:34 PM
#129
Bioshock 2 timing probably helped, but I don't think Big Daddy actually overpowered there by much.

In 2010, Tifa indirectly gets 74.6% on Geno (unless you think Ness SFFd Geno).
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3791-jenova-division-round-1-ness-vs-geno
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3824-jenova-division-round-2-big-daddy-vs-ness
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3841-jenova-division-round-3-big-daddy-vs-tifa-lockheart

In 2018, Tifa got 73.19% on Geno directly.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7290-division-7-round-1-tifa-vs-geno

Big Daddy was just one of many western characters that were decently strong when their series was fresh and recent, then fell off when people moved on. He was legit in 2010, and now he loses to Lloyd Irving.

People didn't put much stock in him cleanly beating Ness back then, but Ness is solid when he isn't getting crushed by the Nintendo hierarchy. For a more recent result, 2018 Ness was indirectly worth 38.6% on Bowser.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7314-division-4-round-2-2b-vs-ness
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7340-division-4-semifinal-2b-vs-bowser

That was a lot of words, links, and numbers to make an argument about irrelevant midcarders.
It's Reyn Time.
LightningStrikes
03/12/2025
05:48 PM
#130
Did people move on? Or did the franchise? There were three Bioshock games in one generation then absolutely nothing since. It just vanished.

I think the better comparison on whether or not Bioshock 2 matters is Big Daddy in 2008:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3255-division-3-round-1-balthier-big-daddy-gordon-scorpion

Yeah, I know, LFF. But here he basically performed on Gordon the same as he did on Tifa. And thats a much more fresh and recent Big Daddy. It should be quite an uncontroversial take to have 2010 Big Daddy as stronger than 2008 Big Daddy.

Its not just freshness or being western, a lot of western characters got stronger, eg Kratos. The reason some fell off hard is their series vanished entirely, which is a bigger games industry issue.

Supposedly theyve been trying to get a new Bioshock off the ground for a decade with no luck.
I just decided to change this sig.
Blaaaaaaargh azuarc
KamikazePotato
03/12/2025
06:08 PM
#131
LightningStrikes posted...
Did people move on? Or did the franchise? There were three Bioshock games in one generation then absolutely nothing since. It just vanished.
Well yeah, that's what I was getting at. It's tough for characters to stay fresh in people's minds forever. It's why 2018 had a number of western characters dropping off because they hadn't had a game in years. If you aren't the mascot of an eternally long-running series, or regularly appearing in spinoffs, or a nostalgia darling that captured people during their formative years...you're gonna suffer as the years go on.
It's Reyn Time.
#132
Post #132 was unavailable or deleted.
Leonhart4
03/12/2025
06:50 PM
#133
KamikazePotato posted...
If you aren't the mascot of an eternally long-running series, or regularly appearing in spinoffs, or a nostalgia darling that captured people during their formative years...you're gonna suffer as the years go on.

In other words, unless you're Nintendo, you're probably in trouble!

I need to work on a mock bracket for a 2025 Character Battle. I remember when we used to make mock brackets all the time.

I don't know who to include as far as characters that have been introduced since the last one in 2018 though. There's definitely a lot of popular stuff that's outside my range of gaming expertise these days.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Big_Bob
03/12/2025
07:05 PM
#134
Astro Bot
Someone from Baldur's Gate 3
Someone from Metaphor: ReFantazio
Malenia, Blade of Miquella
Doom Slayer
Joker (Balatro)
Sonic characters are probably stronger due to the movies
Luigi (don't ban me)

azuarc beat me.
pjbasis
03/12/2025
07:25 PM
#135
UltimaterializerX posted...
peej has it right.

yeah but I'm letting you know I've seen that argument for broken characters in competitive games that should be banned too. Yeah it's exciting to see someone actually overcome a broken character, but more often than not you just get more boring matches of broken characters winning than exciting ones where they lose.
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
#136
Post #136 was unavailable or deleted.
LightningStrikes
03/12/2025
07:50 PM
#137
Doom Slayer is probably a solid midcarder. Fairly strong game, character that is iconic of it while also actually being likeable. Seems like he would be pretty good.
I just decided to change this sig.
Blaaaaaaargh azuarc
_SecretSquirrel
03/12/2025
07:56 PM
#138
Big_Bob posted...
Luigi (don't ban me)
The fact that Luigi could steamroll a character battle due to the Luigi Mangione incident is kind of surreal to think about, if one was even remotely possible any time soon.
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc , winner of Game of the Decade!
pjbasis
03/12/2025
10:06 PM
#139
UltimaterializerX posted...
I always play the broken stuff.

Fair lmao
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
golden009
03/12/2025
11:25 PM
#140
Who would be the strongest BG3 character? I want to say Astarion but idk if any of the cast would have the same type of strength as the game itself

KamikazePotato
03/12/2025
11:29 PM
#141
This site is predominantly male, so Shadowheart
It's Reyn Time.
Leonhart4
03/13/2025
12:00 AM
#142
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/e/eca6899e.jpg

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3842-hyrule-division-final-link-vs-luigi

We've reached the division finals! To commemorate the beginning of freeform pics, I'll be highlighting one per match. This is a good example of how to make a silly picture.

There isn't much to say about Link SFFing Luigi, so I'll voice a complaint about this format we had from the beginning that Allen never listened to for some reason. Many of us thought this is when 24 hour matches should've started. This is when every match becomes important. It only would've added another week to the contest, so it's not like it would've drawn things out that much more. Heck, even starting with the next round would've been better than only having the last three matches being 24 hours.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
pjbasis
03/13/2025
12:52 AM
#143
KamikazePotato posted...
This site is predominantly male, so Shadowheart

ive heard of shadowheart, this checks out
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
_SecretSquirrel
03/13/2025
01:06 AM
#144
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/1eef23db.jpg

I really like that someone snuck in Mr. L in a match picture.
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc , winner of Game of the Decade!
TeamRocketElite
03/13/2025
01:18 AM
#145
Shadowheart is the only BG3 character I can name.
My bracket looked like random picks compared to his.
Congrats to azuarc for winning the GotD 2020 Guru Contest!
MetalmindStats
03/13/2025
02:06 AM
#146
Big_Bob posted...
Astro Bot
Someone from Baldur's Gate 3
Someone from Metaphor: ReFantazio
Malenia, Blade of Miquella
Doom Slayer
Joker (Balatro)
Seconding these all, as far as newcomers go. Baldur's Gate 3 probably would get 2-3 (or maybe even more) of Astarion, Gale, Karlach, Lae'zel, Shadowheart, and Wyll, since there's no consensus name or appearance for a main protagonist to nominate instead.

In the interest of providing additional suggestions, given that newcomers even comprised 26% (not counting Master Hand or King K. Rool) of 2018's full field:

Clive Rosfield (and maybe Cidolfus Telamon too)
Ichiban Kasuga (Like a Dragon)
Edelgard
Zagreus
Atreus
both Mio and Noah (Xenoblade Chronicles 3)
either Monster Hunter or Rathalos
Sidon
Hero (Dragon Quest XI)
Jin Sakai (Ghost of Tsushima)
either Alphen or Shionne (Tales of Arise)
Arthur Morgan (Red Dead Redemption 2)
EVE (Stellar Blade)
Cat (Stray)
Makoto Niijima
Ciri (due to the Witcher show)
Madeline (Celeste)

Ranked by my estimation of their odds of making a contest, in roughly descending order.

Also want to add to the Sonic characters mention that I think Dr. Eggman would likely return, and Vault Boy could see a similar boon from the Fallout show, as well as Tom Nook from New Horizons, Banjo from Smash Ultimate DLC, Alan Wake from Alan Wake II, and Pyramid Head from the Silent Hill 2 remake. The obvious duo aside (and one other Leon very likely knows about), there're probably a few other games I'm not thinking of that have revitalized veterans absent from 2018.
she/her (or they/them)
~never knows what to say~
golden009
03/13/2025
04:09 AM
#147
I would be interested in seeing if any of the Arcane-featured LoL characters could do anything; they'd probably still just get drowned the way Draven did, but the show was massive and generally pretty well-liked, and maybe "i'm never going to touch league of legends but vi is pretty cool" or something to that effect would actually translate into votes.
KamikazePotato
03/13/2025
04:18 AM
#148
Normal unrallied LoL characters are turbofodder. Jinx could maybe be normal fodder?
It's Reyn Time.
ctesjbuvf
03/13/2025
05:50 AM
#149
MetalmindStats posted...
both Mio and Noah (Xenoblade Chronicles 3)

How about the ones from 2 that made it to Smash?
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
LightningStrikes
03/13/2025
11:53 AM
#150
Lots of people into Arcane but not LoL view them as entirely separate. Which is very much not the case for people into both. Overall though GameFAQs is very much dominated by the former or people into neither. So I dont think the show will help to the level that Alucard boosted with his show.

Would be neat to see if Alan Wake could get a Nathan Drake after Uncharted 2-style boost. The -ake sequel boost.
I just decided to change this sig.
Blaaaaaaargh azuarc
Leonhart4
03/13/2025
12:04 PM
#151
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/9/9ea2f44c.jpg

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3843-chaos-division-final-sonic-vs-kirby

There were some rumblings that Kirby could give Sonic some trouble based on the puffball's unexpected run in 2008. It was 50/50 for the first minute, but then Sonic established control of the match. It certainly wasn't a dominant win, but it was never in doubt beyond the early moments. Kirby also preserved his streak of getting 45% or more in all of his one-on-one losses.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Board 8 » Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1379
Page of 7