Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1378

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Board 8 » Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1378
ctesjbuvf posted...
When you call it biggest tossup, is that in terms of prediection percentage? It's up there for sure in any case.

Next match is up there too and was also thoguht to be a 3 pointer.

I don't have the Guru stats, but I know in terms of Oracle predictions, it was very close in terms of who picked whom and the average was Tidus with 50.71%.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Leonhart4 posted...
Sub-Zero had a slight lead at the freeze
Well, Sub-Zero is known for freezing people.
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I decided to go dive into the Stats Topic archives to see if I could find the split on Tidus/Sub-Zero. Tidus had 57% of picks in the Guru. Apparently, the only round 1 match that was more of a toss-up was Alucard/Magus lawl
http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png
Tides has had a rough history. Some midcarders just get continuously thrown into debatable matches because they're in that nebulous 'not fodder, not elite' zone where everything versus characters in the same zone is a tossup.
It's Reyn Time.
Tidus has the same problem Knuckles has (another guy who can't get past round two). He's popular enough to get in almost every year, but not popular enough to get a high enough seed to avoid a stronger character in round one or two.

Except in 2010 when he got a 4 seed, but then Allen did vote-ins and all the winners got 13 seeds, whoops!
http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3766-varia-division-round-1-phoenix-wright-vs-jecht

This is one of the finest examples of life imitating art in contest history. Tidus fails, and Jecht comes in to show him how it's done.

Like Tidus/Sub-Zero, this was considered a situation where the winner was favored to win again next round, so there was a lot of debate surrounding this one. Jecht was a bigger favorite on B8 than Tidus was, but Phoenix had his supporters (including the last remaining perfect bracket at the time, our future Guru winner, Dr. Football).

Phoenix was a B8 phenomenon, but we knew his ceiling was relatively low. Jecht was a complete unknown and a wild card. He wasn't a playable character, and he wasn't really the villain, so no one was sure how strong he'd be. I was one of the big proponents for pushing Jecht to get in, so I had confidence he could be worth something.

Phoenix took the lead out of the gate, of course, but when he couldn't get his lead over 100 by the freeze, just about everyone knew it was over. Jecht had the lead 30 minutes later and never looked back.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3767-varia-division-round-1-ratchet-vs-eddie-riggs

As the board's foremost Ratchet & Clank fan (Play Ratchet & Clank), I can safely say anyone who gets doubled by Ratchet should never be seen again (and Eddie Riggs hasn't!). Indeed, only Ellis and Sandal finished lower in the final X-Stats. He's still bottom ten even in the raw X-Stats with all the SFF unadjusted!
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Jecht doing what Tidus couldn't immediately after was a bit of a punch to the stomach, even though I cheered for Jecht too.

Sub-Zero is stronger and all, but still!
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
I wonder if Jack Black would win over Ratchet?

And speaking of Tidus being useless in the contests, isnt he the only FFX character who has no never made it to round 3? Jecht=Sin
Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Azuarc >Me
Technically Seymour lost in round 1 in Rivals...!

And Rikku only made the third round with the benefit of the Female Bracket, so it was kinda cheating
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
On the other hand she has had far less attempts and her draws have been unfortunate too!
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
But getting a draw of Lenneth Valkyrie and Kairi balances that out so it's still kinda cheating
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Leonhart4 posted...
Technically Seymour lost in round 1 in Rivals...!

And Rikku only made the third round with the benefit of the Female Bracket, so it was kinda cheating

I forgot about Seymour. That contest had so many interesting fodder in it.

But I shouldnt be that hard on Tidus. At least he has won a couple of matches unlike my guy Cecil.

Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Azuarc >Me
Cecil is another 'doomed to have interesting matches' midcarder. 2018 was especially unfortunate, because who could have predicted Crash would boost to near-Big Boss strength? He also would have won in 2013 but 4chan rallied Wrex.
It's Reyn Time.
The rare time the 4chan rally got behind the right character
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
...if there was a parallel Smash Bros. series with rosters based solely on our contests, emphasizing (in roughly ascending order of importance) those characters who have made many contests, who have often been strong and/or won many matches, who have been highly and/or consistently memorable, and most of all who have been significant in the course of these contests and impactful within them, which characters would each game's roster have?

This isn't an alternate universe 'what if Smash Bros. existed in a different form than the way we know it?' idea. Rather, what I mean for it to be is sort of a way to ask for lists and other opinions on contest characters' importance as per the above metrics, but framed in a way that I hope will be easier to latch on to.

There are quite a few ways to approach this idea, I'm aware. I favor assuming that each parallel contest Smash Bros. 'game' released exactly five years after its counterpart, as a relatively non-arbitrary increment and because this aligns Melee -> Brawl with CJayC -> SBAllen as eras. As well, it feels to me like a necessary baseline condition to give each parallel roster the same number of characters as its Smash Bros. equivalent. (...I realize these two points result in a total lack of new contests with characters to help draw the parallel-Ultimate roster's additions from.)

Preassuming the above two specifications produces the following parallel game rosters to fill:
  • Contest Smash Bros. - 12 characters, based on 2002 and 2003 only
  • Contest Smash Bros. Melee - 26 characters, based on 2002-2006 + Villains
  • Contest Smash Bros. Brawl - 39 characters, based on 2002-2010 + Villains + Rivals
  • Contest Smash Bros. 4 - 58 characters, based on 2002-2018 + Villains + Rivals
  • Contest Smash Bros. Ultimate - 89 characters, based on 2002-2018 + Villains + Rivals
As for whether to consider any additional Smash Bros.-paralleling factors, such as by emphasizing contests newer relative to each pre-Ultimate game or in terms of DLC or whether or not to remove characters from previous installments, or whether any bonus match-exclusive characters matter enough, that's up to those of you who are interested enough to respond. Alternatively, I encourage you to approach this idea your own way if you'd prefer, whether by ditching the above specifications or by ditching the parallel Smash Bros. framing altogether. Please do post if you feel what I wrote above doesn't work or is off as an approach to this subject or isn't an interesting idea at all or whatever else!
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Leonhart4 posted...
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3766-varia-division-round-1-phoenix-wright-vs-jecht

This is one of the finest examples of life imitating art in contest history. Tidus fails, and Jecht comes in to show him how it's done.


And 2010 was the only contest that Jecht made it into as a standalone bracket entry. He did appear in Rivalry Rumble, but amazingly failed to make the 2013 contest with its huge pool of bracket slots up for grabs.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as azuarc , Guru Champ!
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3768-varia-division-round-1-travis-vs-zelda

This was a pretty uneventful match other than wondering how Travis managed to get a 7 seed. I guess this must have been around the time No More Heroes 2 came out.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3769-varia-division-round-1-ezio-vs-simon-belmont

There was some hype behind Ezio, especially after Altair's beatdown of Liquid. There was even a small contingent who thought he could put a scare into Zelda next round. That ended quickly once this match started. Ezio was below 56% for a little while before AC's strong ASV allowed him to get up close to 60% by the end of the match.

Perhaps the strangest thing about this match is that Simon Belmont was actually the overall bracket favorite. Has any other 15 seed ever been the favorite against a 2 seed? Some people blamed Ezio's overly long name as a reason why people may not have known who he was, but it's still pretty surprising either way.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
We rarely have a match where the result could completely flip if done today, but I'd feel pretty comfortable in taking Simon to get close to, if not outright beat, Ezio's percent here nowadays.
Not a stinky alien. :(
Nintendo Switch Code: SW-5719-6555-8388
Yeah, I think this is a good candidate for something like that. Assassin's Creed is beyond dead here now (Ezio got tripled by Zelda in 2018), and Simon has had Smash since.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
I would take Simon in a rematch and wouldn't even think twice about it.
Azuarc is my favorite arc of the Game of the Decade 2020 anime.
Yeah, Simon beat Ryu Hayabusa in 2018. Even with Smash cooling off, at the very minimum, it's going to give him the Dissidia Kefka treatment of a unified character design that doesn't suck.
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc , winner of Game of the Decade!
If Sephiroth gets his Smash render it's game over

Really thinking about it all the DLC characters are kind of interesting entrants to receive Smash boosts. Do Kazuya and Terry make a comeback? Does Sora beat Red?
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3770-midgar-division-round-1-cloud-strife-vs-ridley

We started to see some cracks in Cloud and Sephiroth's armor in 2008, but you could blame it on 4-ways. However, it was hard to deny Cloud had lost a step after this match. The Oracle average was 77% but Cloud was at 63.5% at the freeze. The customary FFVII rise to heaven propelled him over 71% by the end, but this was still a notable underperformance.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Cloud would Smash SFF Ridley into the ground in a rematch.
My bracket looked like random picks compared to his.
Congrats to azuarc for winning the GotD 2020 Guru Contest!
Cloud/Ridley is one of my favorite blowouts, purely because it is a lot of fun to pretend FF7 isn't going to rise to heaven and that Cloud is totally vulnerable thanks to failing to double Ridley.
Not a stinky alien. :(
Nintendo Switch Code: SW-5719-6555-8388
TeamRocketElite posted...
Cloud would Smash SFF Ridley into the ground in a rematch.

Ridley is one of the few characters to be considered a bad MU for Cloud...
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
The Crash 2018 boost was something I was absolutely kicking myself for not seeing. The N-Sane trilogy was that big of a deal. Literally revived that franchise and character. There was also a general wave of goodwill building in the late 2010s fuelled by nostalgia. It made sense in retrospect.

The long gap between Character Battles meant that a lot of characters and franchises fates changed considerably in that span. Alucard got a huge boost from the Netflix show. Crash and Lara became relevant again. Breath of the Wild made Zelda a monster. Mass Effect became a joke thanks to Andromeda. Two Smash games boosting characters all over the shop. Ive not checked but I think this was my worst performance ever because I stuck to the old stats.

Imagine what changes we might see if we got another one!
I just decided to change this sig.
Blaaaaaaargh azuarc
I placed in the top 100, I can see I have a badge for that. Annoyingly, placing top 50 in GotD gave nothing because they didn't count European fun brackets then. I think doing well in 2018 was mostly getting the latter stages right, especially calling Tifa's and Crono's paths correctly. I think all my missing points in the finals bracket were Zelda matches but no one got anything from those. Maybe also the first Pikachu vs. Mega Man match. But not taking Zelda to get to at least Snake felt super stupid in hindsight.

Crash overperforming wasn't too costly because it was only the first match at worst.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Leonhart4 posted...
Has any other 15 seed ever been the favorite against a 2 seed?

I just checked and Aerith and Claire in 2018 are very close to but don't quite get there. Bomberman was however the favorite that year as a #15 seed.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3771-midgar-division-round-1-chris-redfield-vs-macmillan

The only noteworthy thing here is that this was Chris Redfield's only contest win (unless you count beating Dan/Sagat in Villains with Wesker).
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
It is very odd that MacMillan made it in. Soap and Price made sense, the lead and the major recurring character. MacMillan is in one mission in one game.
I just decided to change this sig.
Blaaaaaaargh azuarc
He was in 2008, too!
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Leonhart4 posted...
(unless you count beating Dan/Sagat in Villains with Wesker).

We do.
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
LightningStrikes posted...
It is very odd that MacMillan made it in. Soap and Price made sense, the lead and the major recurring character. MacMillan is in one mission in one game.

to be fair its probably the most popular mission in the series to this day
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LightningStrikes posted...
The long gap between Character Battles meant that a lot of characters and franchises fates changed considerably in that span. Alucard got a huge boost from the Netflix show. Crash and Lara became relevant again. Breath of the Wild made Zelda a monster. Mass Effect became a joke thanks to Andromeda. Two Smash games boosting characters all over the shop. Ive not checked but I think this was my worst performance ever because I stuck to the old stats.


This is a fascinating statement to me. I stuck super hard to the stats and was one obviously bad pick away from Guru champion that year.
My bracket looked like random picks compared to his.
Congrats to azuarc for winning the GotD 2020 Guru Contest!
The things I lost the most points on, Zelda, Tails, Donkey Kong, Alucard... were all when I didn't follow the stats and I still did quite well.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
I mean you basically had to ignore everything Pokemon and Draven touched in 2013 (which was a lot to be fair), but other than that, you could do fine following those numbers. Crash was already good in 2013, for instance!

Even something like Vivi > Mario was an indicator that Vivi had become noticeably stronger than he had been before.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Now that you mention it, that was one place I deviated from the stats. I just threw out everything from 2013. >_>

So to me, Mewtwo was:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3740-chaos-division-round-1-ganondorf-vs-mewtwo
Not:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5254-character-battle-ix-division-2-final-sonic-vs-mewtwo-vs
My bracket looked like random picks compared to his.
Congrats to azuarc for winning the GotD 2020 Guru Contest!
Is that match proof that Sonic is more Nintendo than Pokemon is
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
I don't know, Sonic sucks is multi ways. But Mewtwo was also rallied, and was considered the best chance of beating Draven between the three. The match also had spillover but I don't know if that boosted Mewtwo or just votals in general.

Edit: A quick check makes it clear LoL fans preferred Mewtwo, seems spillover meant rallying was barely needes for Mewtwo that round. Still, Sonic is definitely not the character to take advantage of Mewtwo/Bowser overlap, that much is right.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
yeah I tend to forget about the rallies other than the ones that win (or only lose because of another rally - melee)
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
If a Pokemon was in a match in 2013, you can safely assume there was rallying

Unless it's Lugia
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Multiple Pokmon were fed to Mega Man variants, but other than that they also all had ridiculously good bracket placement or other matches panning out in their favor or insane match pic advantages. 3-ways was a golden format for them. And when bracket placement was against them for once, Sora choked. It's nice Snake beat Squirtle and Pikachu combined but I'm not sure that directly translated to beating them if you replace one with something else in that format.

Sidenote: Squirtle gotta be the only NN breaker to not return to the field.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
ctesjbuvf posted...
Sidenote: Squirtle gotta be the only NN breaker to not return to the field.
Missingno failed to make 2018 as well.
It's Reyn Time.
I think Cube did too. I just meant return at some point.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Well, Squirtle only made it because of the NRT in the first place, but yeah, usually characters that do so well get enough momentum to come back again

I'd guess the five year gap between Character Battles hurt in that regard because it gave the average nominator enough time to forget about it
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Yeah, a year after Squirtle probably had better chances.

But also that contest was so messed up at that point that the impact of Cloud losing wasn't even that big.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Vivi beating Mario has to be one of the most shocking, out of nowhere results we've ever had.
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azuarc beat me.
Board 8 » Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1378
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